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October 2012 Observations & Discussions


earthlight

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Dont these major reporting stations have backup sensors... If my main temp sensor goes on the blink my other two would alert me to the fact,

I used a Taylor max/min thermometer to back up my nimbus temp system when I was recording obs...They usually were within one degree of each other or exactly the same...I had my Taylor thermometer checked over 20 years ago when I was a member of the Long Island Weather Observers...

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I used a Taylor max/min thermometer to back up my nimbus temp system when I was recording obs...They usually were within one degree of each other or exactly the same...I had my Taylor thermometer calibrated over 20 years ago when I was a member of the Long Island Weather Observers...

Nimbus made some great equipment and it looks like they went out of business somewhere along the line.

I have had good success with my Cole Parmer wireless thermometer.

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Nimbus made some great equipment and it looks like they went out of business somewhere along the line.

I have had good success with my Cole Parmer wireless thermometer.

when I first got the nimbus in 1990 it was effected by ham radios...I would get false readings sometimes until I had them install a ham radio blocking device in it...I have it packed up somewhere in a closet...I'm using an old Davis temo sensor that gives me false readings alot...The taylor max/min is still my main thermometer... I think all official stations should have a mecury max/min like the old days...But that's not going to happen anytime soon...

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I used a Taylor max/min thermometer to back up my nimbus temp system when I was recording obs...They usually were within one degree of each other or exactly the same...I had my Taylor thermometer checked over 20 years ago when I was a member of the Long Island Weather Observers...

I still use the nimbus digital thermometer...had it for over twenty years.. its my backup for my vantage pro and they are always within a few tenths of a degree of each other.
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Friday is looking like a late season thunderstorm potential day for our area. There is going to be a closed

low to our west with good shear overhead. The main question is how much we will be able to

destabilize. In any event ,it looks like we could see some heavy thunderstorms with the potential

for a few severe reports should we destabilize enough.

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What is it with LGA's inability to have its winds die off? Above and beyond all other stations there at 54 degrees.

The temp difference between LGA and here is pretty impressive right now. 40.3F versus 54F. Winds seem to be light around the city and also along the NJ shore, probably due to the strong thermal gradient present. Usually on radiational cooling nights, city areas and the coast take until late night for winds to go calm.

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In Southern Somerset County temperatures are already down to 40.8 Degrees F. With nearly 9 more hours of radiational cooling, I can't see how we won't reach the mid 30s tonight IMBY in C NJ.

Yeah my point and click was updated to 36F for tonight here in Monmouth County. We'll both probably see frost in the morning.

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Alluding to bluewaves post, I think there may be a small window for potential severe weather including isolated spinups throughout the area on Friday from late morning into the early evening. With an initial batch of precipitation on almost all guidance (some of it likely convection) there is a marginal overlap/juxtaposition of meager instability and low level helicity which is especially prevalent east of NYC. Thereafter--the NAM forecasts some boundary layer recovery (might just be the NAM up to its usual antics) with temperatures returning to the 70's by afternoon and some convection developing over New Jersey...with 60+kts of 0-6km shear. There could be an additional threat continuing farther northeast into parts of New England despite widespread meager instability if the NAM is correct.

You can see the MUCAPE axis extending towards the coast on the SREF mean as well as the tornado ingredients showing up -- note that they lowered the CAPE threshold for this which probably leads to more enhanced numbers. An odd set up. But with the wind fields and signals for good low level shear suggest that we should keep an eye on it.

If the instability doesn't develop as some models indicate (mainly the NAM) -- things would lead more towards heavy rain with embedded storms/thunder. It'll be interesting to see if the models are once again overdoing the instability forecasts at this range. That would be the third or fourth time in a row.

SREF_hicape_MEDIAN_MXMN__f051.gif

SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f054.gif

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GFS is similiar to the Euro.

Those two upper level height patterns and anomalies are extremely different, notice how flat the GFS is over the Eastern US compared to the ECMWF which pumps the heights up..would be two very different sensible wx results.

Good to see the high latitude blocking/positive anomalies on both.

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Those two upper level height patterns and anomalies are extremely different, notice how flat the GFS is over the Eastern US compared to the ECMWF which pumps the heights up..would be two very different sensible wx results.

Good to see the high latitude blocking/positive anomalies on both.

Yep. Euro would be warmer than the GFS if it verifies like that. Really nice to see blocking going on. Hopefully it continues through November and the winter.

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