earthlight Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 October will likely begin with major amplification of the West Atlantic ridge, with a mid level disturbance over the Mississippi Valley getting caught up to the west of it -- and aiding in southerly flow and the possibility of showers and humidity on the East Coast with the pacific energy aiding in what appears to be (at least from this point) a full latitude trough. However, a very active northern stream will kick down the Northwest periphery of the western atlantic ridge by the end of the first week of October in all likelihood. The active northern stream will become amplified by this time, owing to what appears to be a strong signal for anomalous ridging in the East Pacific and West Coast (+PNA) and slightly less than transient positive height anomalies over Greenland. The combinatinon of the two will likely force a surge of cold air through Central Canada and the North-Central United States, even into the Great Lakes by Days 7-10. The degree to which this affects the Northeast US remains somewhat uncertain to me -- especially given the persistence of the W ATL ridge at times this year. However, seeing such an anomalous pattern on the Day 8-10 anomalies is certain to give you that winter-season tingle even for the casual observer. You can even note the split flow in the southwest US underneath the strong ridge in the Northeast Pacific. But -- taking a moment to pause and gather where we are at this point -- the cold air at the surface will all but definitely be moderated by both the time of year and extent of departure from its origin. But the h5 pattern, if it were to develop closely to how it is modeled, yields some very interesting results with anomalous below-normal anomalies over the Central and part of the Northeast US...and maybe most importantly, high latitude blocking that develops as a result of an active pacific and a 582dm ridge on the West Coast of British Columbia. The GFS is the most extreme with positive height anomalies extending all the way towards the Davis Straight while the North Atlantic - NAO ridge does the same. We may not yet be in the time of year where we can get excited about the prospects of bitter cold and snow -- but not all is lost. These patterns can give us a hint of what may be on the table given the set of atmospheric puzzle pieces we've been given at the beginning of the Autumn season. And it couldn't be more of a reversal from what we observed last year at this time. We'll have to wait and watch how the pattern develops..but it certainly looks enticing from my point of view and from our standpoint at the very, very beginning of what is sure to be an exciting next several months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Well last year at this time..the pattern was totally different..like night and day.And it seemed last year the pattern that started in late Sept and October continued into most of the winter..hopefully this pattern will last that long too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 October is the only month bucking the trend to milder...from 1930 to 1969 October averaged 58.2...Since then it's averaging 57.2...The average monthly max dropped from 83 to 79...the minimums were slightly higher...2007 tied 1947 for the warmest October while 1888 is the coolest at 48.6...October is getting wetter on average and last year 2011 had the greatest snowfall by far on record...3-4" of slush was an amazing early season storm that gets lost because the winter wasn't good... decade....Ave.......high..low......Ave.max/min...max...min......Rainfall 1870's.....55.5.......60.3....50.6...........................................3.55" 1880's.....53.9.......58.8....48.6......77.0...34.1......87...29......3.17" 1890's.....55.5.......59.5....52.5......77.4...37.3......87...34......3.59" 1900's.....57.2.......61.3....52.7......77.1...37.5......82...32......4.39" 1910's.....57.9.......59.4....53.0......80.1...37.1......87...32......4.41" 1920's.....56.8.......61.1....50.6......81.4...35.3......90...29......3.39" 1930's.....57.4.......61.3....54.5......81.2...36.3......91...28......3.22" 1940's.....58.7.......63.6....53.8......84.9...37.8......94...30......2.42" 1950's.....58.6.......61.7....55.5......83.6...38.0......88...33......3.68" 1960's.....58.2.......61.8....55.0......82.2...35.3......86...31......2.45" 1970's.....56.9.......62.7....52.9......78.1...35.7......88...29......3.88" 1980's.....57.0.......61.8....52.8......78.5...37.2......84...31......4.01" 1990's.....57.7.......61.9....54.5......79.1...38.8......86...34......3.85" 2000's.....57.0.......63.6....55.0......79.1...38.1......87...36......5.23" 2010's.....57.6.......58.1....57.1......79.5...37.5......84...33......5.05" 1870- 2009........56.8.............................80.0...36.8.......................3.66" 1980- 2009........57.2.............................78.9...38.0.......................4.36" coldest October temperatures since 1950... 29 in 1976 ... 29 in 1976... 31 in 1974 . 31 in 1974.. 31 in 1975... 31 in 1969... 31 in 1988... 32 in 1974... 32 in 1969... 32 in 1972... 32 in 1965... 33 in 1952... 33 in 1964... 33 in 2011... warmest since 1950... 88 in 1979... 88 in 1959... 87 in 1954... 87 in 2007... 86 in 1995... 86 in 1967... 86 in 1950... 85 in 1962... 85 in 1968... 85 in 1997... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 This pattern is much more interesting than what we had last year at this time. Although we had the highly unusual October snowstorm, the pattern was still progressive throughout the fall with little persistent amplification in the pattern and a lack of ridging in Greenland and Alaska. This amplified pattern especially with the strong western US and Alaskan ridging is more encouraging for a cooler first half of October. After the number of months it's been warmer than average I'm not quick to call for a colder than average month but it'll be interesting to see if October finally makes it, regardless of whether September gets there or not (I'm on my phone so I can't check the data at this time). My main concern would be in the Atlantic side if there isn't much blocking as the ECM shows, but this looks like an interesting pattern to follow. It's still early for snow talk but hopefully the eastern trough aspect of the pattern continues and I come back to snow rather than brown grass when I visit NE NJ during the winter... Last year the October snowstorm didn't indicate a snowy winter pattern but the lack of persistent amplification and ridging in Greenland and Alaska continued from the fall into the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Forky is going to love this cold oct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 ^^^^^^ Great posts above to start off the October thread. The big ridge near Alaska with the -EPO is what you would expect to see from and El Nino pattern during October. The last few Octobers were La Nina so we had the +EPO pattern dominating. We also have the influence of the Western Atlantic Ridge which has been running in tandem with the well above normal SST's From the Canadian Maritimes down the Northeast Coastline. This has kept us milder the last few months than the Great Lakes and Midwest. The current CFS monthly has cool temperature anomalies focused to our west like the last few months but more significant. It is hinting that the immediate coastal areas temps may run close to or a little above normal on the month. As always, we'll have to wait and see what the pattern looks like for the second half of the month to determine the exact outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Great posts by all in this thread. I'm becoming more confident that October will feature the first widespread colder than normal month in awhile for the I-95 corridor, albeit slightly so. The first week is mild, the middle 10 days could be solidly below normal, then a moderating trend toward late October, leaving us near to slightly below avg I think. Similarities to Oct 2006 where the bulk of the coldest anomalies should be centered in the MW-Great Lakes. AO and NAO will both be at least 1SD below normal into mid Oct, when coupled w/ the AK ridge, may yield quite the cold outbreak relative to normal for the Plains and Lakes. Some of that cold air will undoubtedly reach the east coast, but as Chris noted, will be blunted somewhat by the WAR/strong +AMO. With that being said, I think even coastal areas of the Northeast have a good chance for below normal temp departure in Oct (maybe a -0.5 or so). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Let's just make sure we don't progress through the next several months the way 2006-2007 did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Let's just make sure we don't progress through the next several months the way 2006-2007 did the dec 06 svr event was pretty cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 30, 2012 Author Share Posted September 30, 2012 ^^^^^^ Great posts above to start off the October thread. The big ridge near Alaska with the -EPO is what you would expect to see from and El Nino pattern during October. The last few Octobers were La Nina so we had the +EPO pattern dominating. We also have the influence of the Western Atlantic Ridge which has been running in tandem with the well above normal SST's From the Canadian Maritimes down the Northeast Coastline. This has kept us milder the last few months than the Great Lakes and Midwest. The current CFS monthly has cool temperature anomalies focused to our west like the last few months but more significant. It is hinting that the immediate coastal areas temps may run close to or a little above normal on the month. As always, we'll have to wait and see what the pattern looks like for the second half of the month to determine the exact outcome. Great stuff as usual bluewave. I think the important thing to watch will be the western periphery of the Atlantic Ridge and where it establishes itself. When you're dealing with a +PNA centered near the British Columbia coast and a somewhat transient ridge near Greenland (as we saw in the above graphics at the top of the thread), the cold air will often be displaced from Central Canada on southward into the North-Central United States and the Great Lakes. The Atlantic Coast can often become a bit of a toss up thereafter, with the "cold" air briefly moving through the Atlantic Coast before the airmass moderates again -- with the center of the below normal anomalies remaining to our west. We'll have to see how this all plays out..it will be interesting to watch for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 30, 2012 Author Share Posted September 30, 2012 the dec 06 svr event was pretty cool That was a Moderate Risk event, no? If I remember correctly it was actually a fairly widespread wind damage event with a few tornadoes as well...more reminiscent of a Late August/September Northeast US Outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Let's just make sure we don't progress through the next several months the way 2006-2007 did Stop..u wanted this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Heavy rainshowers moving thru Bayside, New York at this time. Should be gone in about 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Stop..u wanted this I want the fall and winter below normal, not one month in the fall and then full force torch for half the winter. Like I've said before, if I had to choose one then I'd go with below normal winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Heavy rainshowers moving thru Bayside, New York at this time. Should be gone in about 20 minutes. And now it feels chilly...I love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Observing cumulus congestus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Let's just make sure we don't progress through the next several months the way 2006-2007 did Unfortunately this year looks more like 06-07 (and 51-52) right now than any of the unholy trio winters, 76-77, 02-03, 09-10. Obviously it's way early in the game, just saying the early indicators aren't great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Looks like the first six days of the month will be in the mid and upper 70s and at least 5 to 7 above before we see a cooldown. Could be tough to erase that Great posts by all in this thread. I'm becoming more confident that October will feature the first widespread colder than normal month in awhile for the I-95 corridor, albeit slightly so. The first week is mild, the middle 10 days could be solidly below normal, then a moderating trend toward late October, leaving us near to slightly below avg I think. Similarities to Oct 2006 where the bulk of the coldest anomalies should be centered in the MW-Great Lakes. AO and NAO will both be at least 1SD below normal into mid Oct, when coupled w/ the AK ridge, may yield quite the cold outbreak relative to normal for the Plains and Lakes. Some of that cold air will undoubtedly reach the east coast, but as Chris noted, will be blunted somewhat by the WAR/strong +AMO. With that being said, I think even coastal areas of the Northeast have a good chance for below normal temp departure in Oct (maybe a -0.5 or so). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Is this October or winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Is this October or winter? That trough and cold air looks good for Lake Effect rain & snow showers in the LES regions. Lets hope that pattern holds or at least returns in Nov, Dec, Jan.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 October Outlook by CPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 nice GOA vortex by the end of the GFES run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 nice GOA vortex by the end of the GFES run Why are you happy about that? O_o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Why are you happy about that? O_o Because he likes busting your balls and you fall for it every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 1, 2012 Author Share Posted October 1, 2012 Anybody in the interior catch the northern lights last night? They were photographed as far south as Pennsylvania and Maryland. Here's a more captivating photo from Michigan. http://www.spaceweather.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Anybody in the interior catch the northern lights last night? They were photographed as far south as Pennsylvania and Maryland. Here's a more captivating photo from Michigan. http://www.spaceweather.com/ Wow, very impressive, wish I was more on top of this lately. Especially amazing are the pics from Maryland which were south of the 40N latitude line. Quite uncommon to get aurora activity that far south. Sure enough solar indices have been spiking recently with increased geomagnetic and solar flux parameters. Let's hope we don't see solar storms continuing through winter, but being we're approaching solar maximum, I suspect we might not be able to quiet down significantly solar wise. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 1, 2012 Author Share Posted October 1, 2012 Wow, very impressive, wish I was more on top of this lately. Especially amazing are the pics from Maryland which were south of the 40N latitude line. Quite uncommon to get aurora activity that far south. Sure enough solar indices have been spiking recently with increased geomagnetic and solar flux parameters. Let's hope we don't see solar storms continuing through winter, but being we're approaching solar maximum, I suspect we might not be able to quiet down significantly solar wise. We'll see. I hadn't been on top of it either -- so I was pretty disappointed this morning when I read about it. I wish I could've gone somewhere to view it. From what I read, though, it was only forecast to be moderate in the late evening and then it unexpectedly strengthened. So I'm not sure I would've been prepared regardless. Either way it's pretty rare to have a solar storm trigger visible auroras that far south. Pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 CPC ( 6-10 day outlook) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 going to be enjoying the summery days this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Its interesting to have both LA and NYC with well above normal temps in the same timeframe. Im off to Southern Cali (Palm springs) and will spend a day in LA. They have been baking the last few days and should stay warm the next few while we go well above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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