weathafella Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 I was there. That was awesome. I was in Dallas slitting my wrists.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 After next week, yes. What's interesting here is that the EPO leads the onset of +PNA together with negative NAO. Would seem cold loading at higher latitudes sets stage for delivery in or around nearing the 10th perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 With tropical cyclone activity and also MT torque (as AM19PSU pointed out) in full swing, one would think this pattern holds for a couple of weeks anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 I guess if anything, there have been some westerly wind anomalies near and just west of the dateline so that's a good thing. Going forward, I don't think we'll see a healthy MJO wave moving west...it may even get a little coherent. There is a decent MT event going on which is probably helping with the blocking..along with the tropical activity. This stuff could apply to the winter thread as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 It's really both: I originally thought it was an omega block because of the two powerful ULLs, one near the Aleutians, one in the Southwest, leading to the formation of a strong ridge in between, over Alaska/BC. But it's also true that we have a weakness (the Southwest cut-off low that's so common in El Niño winters) trapped underneath the monster -EPO ridge. The pattern is really starting to resemble El Niño, despite how much difficulty ENSO has had in getting its feet off the ground with colder than normal waters popping up right along the equator and the -PDO signature off Baja California continuing to strengthen with those below average SSTs bleeding towards the ENSO regions as well. However, I see the MJO is chugging towards Phases 6/7, and I wonder if that Niño-like tropical forcing is driving this change towards a -EPO. The ECMWF 168-240 anomaly map really shows a very strong gradient pattern centered right over New England; someone in the thread already mentioned SWFEs as a potential result as we get deeper into the cold season. I'm starting to wonder if this could be a 93-94 type of warm ENSO pattern heading into the winter, where there's a large -EPO block but the NAO stays near neutral, causing a gradient to form with a frigid polar vortex over Hudson Bay contrasting with a mild Southeast ridge. DCA had 13.2" snowfall that winter whereas BOS had 96.3," surely the greatest disparity in records. It would be interesting if we had a sort of hybrid winter, with the Niño leading to Pacific side blocking and a strong -EPO, but that pattern displacing the polar vortex into Hudson Bay and thus rendering the NAO rather neutral, but in a favorable fashion for those from NYC on north. The GFS maps also show the NAO block being a bit east-based as an ULL dropped south by the -EPO keeps heights lower in the Baffin Island/Foxe Basin/Hudson Bay region. This could be a fascinating hybrid winter if such a regime continues. 1993-94 was also decent for the burbs of phlly. The city only had I believe 24 inches for the season but the colder burbs to the north and west received 1.5 to 2.0 that amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 Can we talk about how awesome the WV loop looks right now? Watch the trough poised to drop out of western Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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