OHweather Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 You know it is bad when people are worshipping truncated "output". The 12z GFS "fantasy" storm wouldn't be anything more than a cold front with rain and backend flurries anyways. It isn't like the model is consistently showing bombs over Ohio and a blizzard over half the sub-forum in 12 days, not even close. Just parting cold shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 The 12z GFS "fantasy" storm wouldn't be anything more than a cold front with rain and backend flurries anyways. It isn't like the model is consistently showing bombs over Ohio and a blizzard over half the sub-forum in 12 days, not even close. Just parting cold shots. The 12Z GFS would probably be over a foot of snow to some lake communities in Michigan during sometime between Hr 200-350. ***WARNING FANTASY TIME FRAME**** That would bring great fun to northern Lower peninsula and eastern upper peninsula... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 The 12Z GFS would probably be over a foot of snow to some lake communities in Michigan during sometime between Hr 200-350. ***WARNING FANTASY TIME FRAME**** That would bring great fun to northern Lower peninsula and eastern upper peninsula... Although it apears the pacific is still looking very hostile. Is it just another fast transient shot of shallow arctic air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 15, 2012 Author Share Posted November 15, 2012 OHweather, very nice write up. Just don't let the EC weenies see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Lol. Yesterday everybody was in panic. Damn model huggers so true. You know the drill, though. A torchy long-range means panic from the majority (snow weenies) while the warmingistas rejoice (and say nothing about it being in fantasyland)....and a cold long-range means excitement from the snow weenies and the warmingistas finding anything they can to prove why its a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I don't think many people get super excited over warm weather in the long range this time of year. It's time to start looking for potential snow storms and at least have something interesting to follow. It's different in March and April when most people are ready for warm weather and the few oddballs want it to be cold and crappy out that the long range maps really cause some arguments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I don't think many people get super excited over warm weather in the long range this time of year. It's time to start looking for potential snow storms and at least have something interesting to follow. It's different in March and April when most people are ready for warm weather and the few oddballs want it to be cold and crappy out that the long range maps really cause some arguments. True, but now it can be even worse than April, because one thing that CANNOT be denied or stopped is we are heading towards winter. So snowstorms will start showing up in the long range, then disappearing, reappearing in another format, disappearing, etc. It causes anxiety until the snow starts to actually fall (meaning measurable snow, most have already had flakes). If we enter a good pattern, everyone will enjoy snow, and the biggest complaints will be missing the best snows to nearby locations (even though your ground is still white). Thats a problem most could handle. On the other hand, if we get into a horrible pattern, snow will still fall for some, but it will leave many sitting on the sidelines, creating more weather angst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 18z... not as nice. 00z, lets do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 DTX winter outlook http://www.crh.noaa....r_2012_2013.pdf Calling for clippers a-plenty and average to slightly below average temps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 OHweather, very nice write up. Just don't let the EC weenies see that. Thanks. The vibe I get in the long range threads in the eastern subforums (at least New England) does seem to be that there is some sense of a potential event there near the turn of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 MiSnowFrk is right. Winter will happen and everyday we get a bit closer. I was going through my pics of last winter and came across some great snow scenes. Yes they were minor but still a wintery scene. We will get snow. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Some people freak out/meltdown and act like there will be no snow on the ground this winter! There was some great winter scenes last year - the snowdepths were just shallow. We had to have a dud of a winter sooner or later. If anyone has the right to complain it's Toronto folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Some people freak out/meltdown and act like there will be no snow on the ground this winter! There was some great winter scenes last year - the snowdepths were just shallow. We had to have a dud of a winter sooner or later. If anyone has the right to complain it's Toronto folks! Last year was pretty weak. I only used the snow blower once and even that was somewhat pointless. I'll take a year like that every now and then though because having a long stretch of 70's/80's in March is just awesome. The frost depth was so shallow that I could get out on my mountain bike in late March when usually the trails are mud pits until late April or early May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 6z GFS looks dreamy in fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 6z GFS looks dreamy in fantasy land. Things are looking pretty good for a much better start to winter compared to last year. Should be interesting to see what transpires. BTW, the latest JAMSTEC forecast is out. Colder than normal temps for DJF. http://www.jamstec.g...orecast.html.en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 No real changes in what I think will happen as we round out November: Indications are ridging will remain strong over Alaska which will result in a cross polar flow dumping a lot of cold air into Canada. However, questions remain as to when troughing along the west coast may weaken and when the NAO may go negative. The GFS and Euro are in pretty good agreement in moving the MJO through phases 8, 1 and 2 the last week of the month which would argue for a more positive PNA to end November. The ECM suite remains slightly faster initially in developing the -NAO however the GFS and its ensembles continue to show a -NAO in the 11-15 day timeframe. Either way, with the gradient tightening as cold continues to pour into Canada, I do think we'll see at least parting cold shots to end November with the Snow Belts potentially cashing in. This MJO pulse will be something to watch. If it occurs and we see the PNA briefly go positive near the beginning of December, the amount of cold lurking just north of the boarder and strong gradient will argue for a storm somewhere in the eastern half of the US. The NAO will likely help determine if any storm tracks far enough west for the Lakes/OV to cash in or if any storm threat remains supressed. The GWO is making quick strides towards phase 5, and if that continues it also argues for convection east of the dateline in the Pacific and a more positive PNA. Just some stuff to ponder while the pattern remains boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 No real changes in what I think will happen as we round out November: Indications are ridging will remain strong over Alaska which will result in a cross polar flow dumping a lot of cold air into Canada. However, questions remain as to when troughing along the west coast may weaken and when the NAO may go negative. The GFS and Euro are in pretty good agreement in moving the MJO through phases 8, 1 and 2 the last week of the month which would argue for a more positive PNA to end November. The ECM suite remains slightly faster initially in developing the -NAO however the GFS and its ensembles continue to show a -NAO in the 11-15 day timeframe. Either way, with the gradient tightening as cold continues to pour into Canada, I do think we'll see at least parting cold shots to end November with the Snow Belts potentially cashing in. This MJO pulse will be something to watch. If it occurs and we see the PNA briefly go positive near the beginning of December, the amount of cold lurking just north of the boarder and strong gradient will argue for a storm somewhere in the eastern half of the US. The NAO will likely help determine if any storm tracks far enough west for the Lakes/OV to cash in or if any storm threat remains supressed. The GWO is making quick strides towards phase 5, and if that continues it also argues for convection east of the dateline in the Pacific and a more positive PNA. Just some stuff to ponder while the pattern remains boring. I like what you are saying. Now lets take a look at the SST's over the Pacific. First off all this site showed a drastic warming in the PDO from Sept. to Oct, going from -2.75 to -1.18 ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v3b/pdo/pdo.dat Now here is the SST temps ending Oct 29 followed by the same for 11/15. Notice how the area north of +20 has again started to cool, I would think that the Nov. PDO will again tank. As far as El Nino is concered I'm not sure if I see a good signal for a weak EL Nino developing around region 3.4 or not, it still looks kind of neutral to me. Looking at the pattern that is setting up through mid to late Nov with the lack of a phasing Jet Stream around the four corners area, I am feeling quite confident that MSP we see below normal snowfall as the jet stream will likely couple east of Texas. So it looks to me like MSP will see below normal temps with below normal snow fall as cold air will drop in before the moisture can get here from the Gulf for most of the winter. Look for above normal snow fall for North Dakata, parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and most of the Ohio Valley all the way to the east coast. For MSP we get kind of stuck in dark hole. Going for 38" and temps around 2° bellow normal. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I like what you are saying. Now lets take a look at the SST's over the Pacific. First off all this site showed a drastic warming in the PDO from Sept. to Oct, going from -2.75 to -1.18 ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v3b/pdo/pdo.dat Now here is the SST temps ending Oct 29 followed by the same for 11/15. Notice how the area north of +20 has again started to cool, I would think that the Nov. PDO will again tank. As far as El Nino is concered I'm not sure if I see a good signal for a weak EL Nino developing around region 3.4 or not, it still looks kind of neutral to me. Looking at the pattern that is setting up through mid to late Nov with the lack of a phasing Jet Stream around the four corners area, I am feeling quite confident that MSP we see below normal snowfall as the jet stream will likely couple east of Texas. So it looks to me like MSP will see below normal temps with below normal snow fall as cold air will drop in before the moisture can get here from the Gulf for most of the winter. Look for above normal snow fall for North Dakata, parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and most of the Ohio Valley all the way to the east coast. For MSP we get kind of stuck in dark hole. Going for 38" and temps around 2° bellow normal. . Do you think cities like Milwaukee and Chicago will be far enough south to get in on the snowier conditions. It seems we're on the edge based on what you're depicting, but I'd rather be on the northwest edge of the snowy conditions than the SE edge like we basically were last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 If Minnesota Meso's prediction plays out, I won't mind being on the northern side. Might be able to cash in on some lake effect as storms pass to the south. I think MSP will get a lot of there snow from Clippers this season. I think the ONI values will stay neutral through the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 If Minnesota Meso's prediction plays out, I won't mind being on the northern side. Might be able to cash in on some lake effect as storms pass to the south. I think MSP will get a lot of there snow from Clippers this season. I think the ONI values will stay neutral through the winter. Agree, most of our snow will come with clippers up here, there will be one or two close calls for a major storm but I think they will stay south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Do you think cities like Milwaukee and Chicago will be far enough south to get in on the snowier conditions. It seems we're on the edge based on what you're depicting, but I'd rather be on the northwest edge of the snowy conditions than the SE edge like we basically were last year. I don't know that much about lake effect snows, but I will say this, I think ARX will see slightly more snow the MSP. And yes I think Chicago will be far enough south to see above normal snow fall as I see the mean storm track forming from the Quad Cites east of there to Detroit, so my best guess is one major snowfall for Chicago with some lake effects snows. Yes I think Chicago could very well see above normal snows. I need some help...what year did Madison WI get blasted recently....I know that year we were blah for snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I like what you are saying. Now lets take a look at the SST's over the Pacific. First off all this site showed a drastic warming in the PDO from Sept. to Oct, going from -2.75 to -1.18 ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v3b/pdo/pdo.dat Now here is the SST temps ending Oct 29 followed by the same for 11/15. Notice how the area north of +20 has again started to cool, I would think that the Nov. PDO will again tank. As far as El Nino is concered I'm not sure if I see a good signal for a weak EL Nino developing around region 3.4 or not, it still looks kind of neutral to me. Looking at the pattern that is setting up through mid to late Nov with the lack of a phasing Jet Stream around the four corners area, I am feeling quite confident that MSP we see below normal snowfall as the jet stream will likely couple east of Texas. So it looks to me like MSP will see below normal temps with below normal snow fall as cold air will drop in before the moisture can get here from the Gulf for most of the winter. Look for above normal snow fall for North Dakata, parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and most of the Ohio Valley all the way to the east coast. For MSP we get kind of stuck in dark hole. Going for 38" and temps around 2° bellow normal. . When looking at recent daily sea surface temperature loops, the western Nino regions have really warmed: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html We'll see if this persists but the Nino may not be completely dead. Those are some pretty strong warm anomalies in the Nino 3.4 and 4 regions, and if it sticks we may officially hit weak Nino criteria by winters end (I believe it's 5 consecutive tri-month periods of .5+ sea surface temperature anomalies in Nino 3.4 but I may be wrong). This would be interesting because it would support a continuation of the active sub-tropical jet and favor ridging near the west coast of the US, IE a +PNA. The PDO will likely remain weakly negative through the winter...the water near the Aleutians has warmed which is typical with a cold PDO...the waters off the west coast of the US and Canada have also warmed some recently which is not typical of a cold PDO. Averaged out I think we see a weak -PDO through the winter. The recent persistent ridging over the Aleutians into Alaska should continue in the near-mid range...after than things are uncertain, however the PDO argues for colder air to continue diving into western Canada in northern tier of the Plains and Rockies through the winter. This may set up a gradient with plentiful moisture to the south. This jives well with what I expected in my winter outlook last month. I also believe the AO and especially NAO will spend periods in the negative stage through the winter...my winter outlook had that occurring in the latter half of winter, however that's a crapshoot to be honest. However, if those indices are negative and the cold air is forced farther south into the US and is forced to interact with the sub-tropical jet, well, that would mean a lot of snow for someone. So I generally agree with you that the far north will be cold but drier...atypical of a normal Nino, mainly due to the negative PDO...with more normal temps but increasing precip as one heads south. This does seem to hint at above normal snow from the OV points east which I also had in my winter weather outlook. How the ENSO plays out will be interesting over the next several weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 586m anomaly?!?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I don't know that much about lake effect snows, but I will say this, I think ARX will see slightly more snow the MSP. And yes I think Chicago will be far enough south to see above normal snow fall as I see the mean storm track forming from the Quad Cites east of there to Detroit, so my best guess is one major snowfall for Chicago with some lake effects snows. Yes I think Chicago could very well see above normal snows. I need some help...what year did Madison WI get blasted recently....I know that year we were blah for snowfall Hopefully a little east of Detroit . By the way, DTX too sees a lot of clippers this winter. You could be thinking 2007-08 OR 2008-09 for Madison, probably 2007-08 (Detroit got blasted as well both years). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Hopefully a little east of Detroit . By the way, DTX too sees a lot of clippers this winter. You could be thinking 2007-08 OR 2008-09 for Madison, probably 2007-08 (Detroit got blasted as well both years). Madison did well both winters. 2007-08 it ended over 90" I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSNW3 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Geos, you are everywhere! For the past year I've been working on a way to utilize the knowledge of cycling weather patterns. While I know there will be better ways to present the massive amounts of data in future renditions, with potential future partners, I decided I needed to pull the trigger with what I had built to see how it would perform in a real time environment. The host website will likely always be "under construction" but under most circumstances will always be in production. I invite everyone reading to gander at what I think our cycling weather patterns have to offer for weather and climate forecasting... Just a bunch of numbers presented in a static graph. Click on the list above the first temp/preicp graph and you can mash the forecast numbers in the way it allows you. http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/theory/trends/index.html No matter the outcome, it will be a joy to follow the cycling weather patterns and watch the trends come alive or die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Looking ahead to December, here are the composites of the top 10 snowiest Decembers, from 1948 to 2011, for Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, Minneapolis (11 years due to a tie at #10), and St. Louis. As you can see, Chicago and Minneapolis share common looks, while the same is true for Indy and St. Louis...of course their respective locations make this "make sense" I guess. Detroit is a bit different, looking at Greenland. There are a few Decembers that are shared by all five sites. But this is just for fun really, but maybe something to look at in the future. Chicago Detroit Indianapolis Minneapolis St. Louis And finally, surface temperature composites for all five sites, using the same years as above. All five are fairly similar, but the colder anomalies for Chicago, Detroit, and Minneapolis look to be a touch farther west...looking up towards the Dakotas and NW of there. Chicago Detroit Indianapolis Minneapolis St. Louis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 To go along with the above maps...NAO, AO, and PDO indices for the Decembers for each city. Of course stats only tell one side of the story...especially if you look at Dec 1951. NAO and AO from CPC, PDO from the University of Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 12z GFS really hitting the gradient pattern in the longer term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 12z GFS really hitting the gradient pattern in the longer term. That it is. Looks active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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