michsnowfreak Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Yesterday and today's flakes should help since most of us got a brief taste of winter to get us by for awhile. Hard for me to complain after such an epic storm like the GHD one, but the lack of snow after that storm definitely sucked. IIRC we only saw a few inches the rest of the season following that storm. However, if given a choice between an 18" storm/quiet last two months or a more active finish to the season following a lesser storm I'd choose the 18" storm every time. Had I been in your shoes I dont think I would trade either, both are tempting to a snowlover. Ma Nature basically made up for shafting Detroit by giving them a 4-7" (Feb 5), 8-11" (Feb 20) and 3-6" (Feb 25) storms that each missed those areas clobbered by GHD. AND then we got two 4-6" storms in March (5th and 11th). Clearly that meant much more snow had fallen on Detroit than, say, your area, but that sudden 1-storm impact was so much greater over you. As much as many like to complain, Ma Nature finds a way to balance things out (which is why toronto folks should have their shovels and chains ready this winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Had I been in your shoes I dont think I would trade either, both are tempting to a snowlover. Ma Nature basically made up for shafting Detroit by giving them a 4-7" (Feb 5), 8-11" (Feb 20) and 3-6" (Feb 25) storms that each missed those areas clobbered by GHD. AND then we got two 4-6" storms in March (5th and 11th). Clearly that meant much more snow had fallen on Detroit than, say, your area, but that sudden 1-storm impact was so much greater over you. As much as many like to complain, Ma Nature finds a way to balance things out (which is why toronto folks should have their shovels and chains ready this winter). Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 And yet, I would've sacrificed that whole month to be 50-75 miles farther north for GHD. Yeah, probably. If we were in the bullseye. The GHD storm was the last in a series of big, wide area snowstorms that began December 11th 2009. While there has been notable regional storms after GHD, it was the peak of a cycle imo. I can make an argument the series started with February 2007. From Feb 2007 to Feb 2011, the region overall had a pretty damn good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Most teleconnections show a negative NAO in 8 days... It actually gets extremely negative. AO looking better too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Good point, 08-9 was colder, but not quite as big on the snowstorm side which made me forget that great year. Started with the December 15-16 2007 peaked with a massive in Feb. 2011. How long will this slump be, hopefully not to long. Whoops, forgot the February 2007 storm, I was living in Columbus then and for some reason, left little impression lol. I loved 2009 for its cold and deep snow. It was the deepest snow I had seen since 1999 and probably 2nd deepest of my life imby (though 2011 surpassed it). It was a general increase in winter storminess, not JUST the massive bombs. As you know, Detroit did not get an epic storm in that timeframe. But from February 2007 to February 2011, which is 4 years time, DTW saw TWELVE 6"+ storms (10 of the 12 were 7"+, 5 of them 8.5"+, 2 of them 10"+). Climo dictates that in a 4-year timespan, they should see FOUR to FIVE storms of 6"+. Hopefully the slump was just one year. I LIKED the Feb 2007 storm, though it doesnt hold anything special for me compared to Chicagowx. Though it was the first of the 12 storms I mentioned. I will say Id never seen anything like it (nor have I seen anything like it since). We had a few inches of snow on the ground prior to the storm, but waking up on the 14th and seeing the ground transfomed from a simple blanket of snow into a deep blanket of drifty (2') snow (the storm dropped a 8.5") was weird because it seemed like I never saw a flake. The entire storm occurred with temps of 10-12F, and visib for the most part was 0.5 mile (though it briefly dropped to 0.2 mi or up to 0.8 mi). but I never saw flakes. It was just like a white fog blowing everywhere, the flakes were so small. A winter storm for sure, an old-fashioned one. But it was weird to see no individual snowflakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Most teleconnections show a negative NAO in 8 days... It actually gets extremely negative. AO looking better too. The transition period frequently signals the onset of a winter storm in the middle/eastern portion of the country, which is part of the reason there are some rumblings of a Thanksgiving weekend storm. I hope though that the -NAO is tempered a bit, especially because if we miss the winter storm, the story thereafter may be suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 The transition period frequently signals the onset of a winter storm in the middle/eastern portion of the country, which is part of the reason there are some rumblings of a Thanksgiving weekend storm. I hope though that the -NAO is tempered a bit, especially because if we miss the winter storm, the story thereafter may be suppression. Good point. East Coast and Tennessee Valley area will see all the action is it's too negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 The pattern looks rather "normalish" to me. Near average temperatures through the rest of the month...below normal precipitation. I also think we are seeing a good signal from the NAO and AO that December could end up being rather chilly. As far as snow, I think the pattern as of late is speaking for itself. East Coast is favored. Let's hope that changes as time progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 The pattern looks rather "normalish" to me. Near average temperatures through the rest of the month...below normal precipitation. I also think we are seeing a good signal from the NAO and AO that December could end up being rather chilly. As far as snow, I think the pattern as of late is speaking for itself. East Coast is favored. Let's hope that changes as time progresses. It will be nice to just get the ground frozen up and turn on the lake machines. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 The transition period frequently signals the onset of a winter storm in the middle/eastern portion of the country, which is part of the reason there are some rumblings of a Thanksgiving weekend storm. I hope though that the -NAO is tempered a bit, especially because if we miss the winter storm, the story thereafter may be suppression. I think the D10 OP 12z EURO kinda embodies this fear. Huge +PNA ridge across the west (axis is further east than ideal), with -NAO blocking ridge across Newfoundland and the Davis Strait (too far south). Net result is a cold, dry NW flow with any action confined to the SE or EC. Not like it's not going to change 1000 times, but that's kind of your +PNA/-NAO kick in the noots scenario. Would at least churn up the LES in the belts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 How much does a -PNA cost? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 I think the D10 OP 12z EURO kinda embodies this fear. Huge +PNA ridge across the west (axis is further east than ideal), with -NAO blocking ridge across Newfoundland and the Davis Strait (too far south). Net result is a cold, dry NW flow with any action confined to the SE or EC. Not like it's not going to change 1000 times, but that's kind of your +PNA/-NAO kick in the noots scenario. Would at least churn up the LES in the belts. Better than what we have today, at least those of us with winter recreational needs will have a playground within 250 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Better than what we have today, at least those of us with winter recreational needs will have a playground within 250 miles. Would love to see a clipper express get going in the NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 How much does a -PNA cost? There are so many permutations with these teleconnectors that it's hard to say definitively what's best for cold and snow. I'm sure someone could adduce a historical pattern where -PNA lead to big snow in the Lakes. However, in general terms, I believe a +PNA (and associated -EPO) setup is best. With ridging over the eastern GOA/west coast, you have a funnel for cold air from the Arctic to slide right into the MW and Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Got Zonal ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 14, 2012 Author Share Posted November 14, 2012 Got Zonal ? Yep, looking at quite a quiet stretch coming up. I'd rather see this now than in January. She'll buckle by December, then Katie bar the doors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 There are so many permutations with these teleconnectors that it's hard to say definitively what's best for cold and snow. I'm sure someone could adduce a historical pattern where -PNA lead to big snow in the Lakes. However, in general terms, I believe a +PNA (and associated -EPO) setup is best. With ridging over the eastern GOA/west coast, you have a funnel for cold air from the Arctic to slide right into the MW and Lakes. OT, but what a blockbuster deal for the Blue Jays. Wow. On topic, some sort of SE ridging with the above set up completes it. Interesting reading the NE forum today, that a few mets think that could happen sometime in mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 OT, but what a blockbuster deal for the Blue Jays. Wow. On topic, some sort of SE ridging with the above set up completes it. Interesting reading the NE forum today, that a few mets think that could happen sometime in mid December. Yep. Until then, let's build that Canadian snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 OT, but what a blockbuster deal for the Blue Jays. Wow. On topic, some sort of SE ridging with the above set up completes it. Interesting reading the NE forum today, that a few mets think that could happen sometime in mid December. Jeff Loria = the worst owner in all of sports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 All I had to say when I heard about the trade was WOW. Honestly Alex Anthopolous is the best GM in the game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Jeff Loria = the worst owner in all of sports. Agreed. But Loria is only following the Miami way. Buy, buy, buy--sell as fast as you can. Did it after World Series in 97 and 03. Although Donald Sterling-Clippers-might be up there. As an aside on those freaking out about the possibility of a torch --just to emphasize the changing nature of our weather pattern, Skilling talked a 60 something Thanksgiving at Noon and then started changing his tune on the radio at 6ish. Just now at 9 he's talking a BIG change with cold weather coming in for Thanksgiving. Even T. Skilling gets it wrong from time to time....lets keep it calm on the torch worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 00Z GFS is a torch in the long range... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 OT, but what a blockbuster deal for the Blue Jays. Wow. On topic, some sort of SE ridging with the above set up completes it. Interesting reading the NE forum today, that a few mets think that could happen sometime in mid December. lol, thanks for keeping me in the loop Tim! After the WS I completely tune out baseball (I catch up with all the off season trades/FA signings/etc in the spring). Heading over to mlb.com to learn more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 GFSx hinting cold outbreak after Thanks giving. That's perfect timing for winter to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 GFSx hinting cold outbreak after Thanks giving. That's perfect timing for winter to start. Agree. Of course GFS and CFS equal tiny grain of salt. I even joked with Bill Deedler on facebook because 00z had us torching at 384, I said watch itll change at 6z, and sure enough now we are shivering at 384. We can talk about the models all we want, but winter IS coming, so the longer we deal with this boringness (which is, by the way, still a colder than normal weather pattern) the closer we are to REAL winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Truncated data is useless. The ECMWF all but lost the idea of a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 The -NAO look is still there, but no tropical forcing changes alot lol. -PNA/-EPO drive the pattern. As we get closer and closer to winter, all I want is snow. As much as I know about climo (and trust me, its A LOT) and as many years as Ive followed these boards, I still get confused about all the teleconnectors, nao, pna, epo, mjo, pdo etc, makes my head spin. One minute we hear a +NAO is not good because it means it will torch, then when talk of -NAO we hear its not good for those of us in the north because it means suppression, and on and on. I dont care, just give me whatever it take to cover the ground in snow. Im not picky, I will take clippers, hookers, lake bands, whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Michsnowfreak, in general you would want a negative nap but it is important too to have a mild se ridge in your neck of the woods. That is not set in stone, but general indicators of what you should prefer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Michsnowfreak, in general you would want a negative nap but it is important too to have a mild se ridge in your neck of the woods. That is not set in stone, but general indicators of what you should prefer. Some of our biggest snowstorms have actually come in a +NAO, but some have also come in -NAO...you just never know because there are so many factors. The big difference is -NAO promises more cold, lasting snowcover. I dont mind missing a few storms to the east if I can have crisp cold air preserving a nice snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Some of our biggest snowstorms have actually come in a +NAO, but some have also come in -NAO...you just never know because there are so many factors. The big difference is -NAO promises more cold, lasting snowcover. I dont mind missing a few storms to the east if I can have crisp cold air preserving a nice snowcover. No Alaskan vortex is a good start, that damn thing ruined last winter. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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