Ajdos Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Damn its only November 9th. Give a month. If its the same crap after Dec 10th. Then ***ch away Ah, last year, "its only Nov10th don't worry, we got plenty of winter to go/ "Hey it's only Dec 2nd, winter has not even started, stormier weather as we get close to January", January 1st, "guys this pattern is about to shift, massive pattern change (HM)" , Feb 1st, "we still got plenty of time, no worries." March 1st, "we might get a massive storm in March, just wait and see. " March 15, spring has arrived, April, Summer has arrived! Where did winter go? What winter? LOL////BLAH.....I hate the fact that we tend to be so positive about storms and so forth, but then time passes before we know it, and winter is over ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Ah, last year, "its only Nov10th don't worry, we got plenty of winter to go/ "Hey it's only Dec 2nd, winter has not even started, stormier weather as we get close to January", January 1st, "guys this pattern is about to shift, massive pattern change (HM)" , Feb 1st, "we still got plenty of time, no worries." March 1st, "we might get a massive storm in March, just wait and see. " March 15, spring has arrived, April, Summer has arrived! Where did winter go? What winter? LOL////BLAH.....I hate the fact that we tend to be so positive about storms and so forth, but then time passes before we know it, and winter is over ..... Lmao Why do you care. I thought you were moving to Cancun or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 9, 2012 Author Share Posted November 9, 2012 Looking ahead, the GFS keeps making a little something happen around the 240 range. GFS looks to impress from 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 The upcoming pattern looks absolutely hideous. I hope I'm not saying this in the middle of winter but I have an awful feeling I will be :$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Ah, last year, "its only Nov10th don't worry, we got plenty of winter to go/ "Hey it's only Dec 2nd, winter has not even started, stormier weather as we get close to January", January 1st, "guys this pattern is about to shift, massive pattern change (HM)" , Feb 1st, "we still got plenty of time, no worries." March 1st, "we might get a massive storm in March, just wait and see. " March 15, spring has arrived, April, Summer has arrived! Where did winter go? What winter? LOL////BLAH.....I hate the fact that we tend to be so positive about storms and so forth, but then time passes before we know it, and winter is over ..... Living where I do, if winter hasn't come to life by Dec 10th.... Its usually a bad winter. No thanksgiving snow showers or cold and its another bad omen. Winter starts in 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Living where I do, if winter hasn't come to life by Dec 10th.... Its usually a bad winter. No thanksgiving snow showers or cold and its another bad omen. Winter starts in 3 weeks. I would be a tad shocked if we don't have at least a 4 inch snowpack in 40days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Lmao Why do you care. I thought you were moving to Cancun or something. After I graduate from LTU..Cali.....and why in the world would I move to Cancun? HAHA....For some reason I thought to myself today, what if winter never came this year? And then the next 5 years?.... (Who remembers the famous NYE snow event of 2006/7 or 2008? Not sure. All I remember was that We got shafted nicely. Places to the N/W of Detroit got up to 17", while we got a slushy 2-4"..UGH...We seem to miss out on these big storms. I'm still pissed about the GHDB! STUPID SLEET........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 The upcoming pattern looks absolutely hideous. I hope I'm not saying this in the middle of winter but I have an awful feeling I will be :$ You gotta chill li'l bro. You're posting this stuff not only in multiple threads, but multiple subforums as well. We get it. And I don't think you're necessarily wrong. But if you keep it up you're gonna give the mods ammunition to suspend your ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 After I graduate from LTU..Cali.....and why in the world would I move to Cancun? HAHA....For some reason I thought to myself today, what if winter never came this year? And then the next 5 years?.... (Who remembers the famous NYE snow event of 2006/7 or 2008? Not sure. All I remember was that We got shafted nicely. Places to the N/W of Detroit got up to 17", while we got a slushy 2-4"..UGH...We seem to miss out on these big storms. I'm still pissed about the GHDB! STUPID SLEET........ NYE 2008. Known as the "South M59 shaft" which continually gets brought up year after year I remember the GHD Blizzard being on the forums and reading the Michigan posters melt down as storm was dry slotting never forget that. I don't think that storm was all that bad in this area picked up close 11" we had 2-3 foot snow drifts. Toronto posters should be a lot more angrier then us. Dude they have not seen a 8"+ Snow event since 2008! WTF is that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Ah, last year, "its only Nov10th don't worry, we got plenty of winter to go/ "Hey it's only Dec 2nd, winter has not even started, stormier weather as we get close to January", January 1st, "guys this pattern is about to shift, massive pattern change (HM)" , Feb 1st, "we still got plenty of time, no worries." March 1st, "we might get a massive storm in March, just wait and see. " March 15, spring has arrived, April, Summer has arrived! Where did winter go? What winter? LOL////BLAH.....I hate the fact that we tend to be so positive about storms and so forth, but then time passes before we know it, and winter is over ..... Yes that did happen last year. We had occasional snow events from Dec-Feb, but winter as we know it here never happened. But let me say this. This will be my 9th winter on weather boards, and this is seen every November. EVERY year. As in, no matter what. It was said in Nov 2010 before DTW got inundated with just about 70" of snow, it was said it Nov 2008 before DTW got hit with 66", it was said in 2007 before DTW had 72", and on and on. It will never change. But just because those fears from last November WERE justified, the fact is most of the previous 8 years they WERE NOT justified. Winter is coming. Still 3 weeks from met winter and 6 weeks from astronomical winter. Snow will be here soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 The upcoming pattern looks absolutely hideous. I hope I'm not saying this in the middle of winter but I have an awful feeling I will be :$ If we were in a stormy pattern, we would be hearing something along the lines of, "watch, we get all this storm action now when everythings so borderline, instead of next month or Jan when its deeper into winter". Ahhh November on the weather boards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Living where I do, if winter hasn't come to life by Dec 10th.... Its usually a bad winter. No thanksgiving snow showers or cold and its another bad omen. Winter starts in 3 weeks. Eh, I disagree with that too. 2007 had hardly any winter before mid-Dec, and it ended up being Detroits 4th snowiest winter on record. Plenty of other instances of good winters that had very little winter before Christmas. Also, plenty of winters (see 2005-06) that were very front-loaded and not much fun from January on. My main thing is I want snow for all of December because it really adds to the Christmas spirit, but there have been many years when winter IN THE END was decent despite having little snow around the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 After I graduate from LTU..Cali.....and why in the world would I move to Cancun? HAHA....For some reason I thought to myself today, what if winter never came this year? And then the next 5 years?.... (Who remembers the famous NYE snow event of 2006/7 or 2008? Not sure. All I remember was that We got shafted nicely. Places to the N/W of Detroit got up to 17", while we got a slushy 2-4"..UGH...We seem to miss out on these big storms. I'm still pissed about the GHDB! STUPID SLEET........ It was Jan 1, 2008. The ultimate shaft in the ultimate winter, 2007-08. I had just 1.8" with that storm, and it actually ended as rain and temps pushing 36F congealing it down to 0.5-1" of crust while as close as Royal Oak was buried in snow (even DTW had 5.5"). Then we got the jackpot on the March 4/5th storm with over 10"...and in the end a shafted New Years storm did not derail us from having 78" of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 NYE 2008. Known as the "South M59 shaft" which continually gets brought up year after year I remember the GHD Blizzard being on the forums and reading the Michigan posters melt down as storm was dry slotting never forget that. I don't think that storm was all that bad in this area picked up close 11" we had 2-3 foot snow drifts. Toronto posters should be a lot more angrier then us. Dude they have not seen a 8"+ Snow event since 2008! WTF is that. It is brought up year after year, though I wouldnt even call it the south59 shaft. Moreso the downriver and far east side shaft. And it just goes to show you how snowlovers tend to remember stuff like this more than all the good. Lets see what else happened that winter? Well we got a 10" snowstorm on Dec 15/16th, record highs in the 60s just 5 days after that NYE storm, snowfall after snowfall (mostly 3-5") in Feb that amounted to over 2 feet of snow for the month, then the above mentioned storm on March 5th that gave most of those areas shafted Jan 1st the jackpot, in the 9-11" range, and at least here, the most amazing lightning/thunder Ive ever seen in a snowstorm (even better than feb 20, 2011!). Of course there was also the Easter weekend blinding snowstorm that dropped another 6-9", followed by another 4-6" storm a few days before April to cement the winter into 4th place on Detroits all-time snow list. But despite all the above, everyones favorite thing to bring up is that damned cursed NYE storm! And yes, no one has the right to complain like Toronto folks. But these gut feelings that there will be literally no winter this year are just ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 A Dec 2000 redux would be fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Anyone who is pessimistic about winter needs to buy a calender, it is only Nov 10th... Hell I can think of plenty of winters that started subpar. Josh even notes several cases above. Wait until Dec 15th before getting worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 This thread needs a joint....... This times ∞ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Remember 2002 everyone? Tons of snow before Christmas, vividly remember that big one in late November the week of the OSU vs Michigan game. Then once 2003 rolled around we got nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 It is brought up year after year, though I wouldnt even call it the south59 shaft. Moreso the downriver and far east side shaft. And it just goes to show you how snowlovers tend to remember stuff like this more than all the good. Lets see what else happened that winter? Well we got a 10" snowstorm on Dec 15/16th, record highs in the 60s just 5 days after that NYE storm, snowfall after snowfall (mostly 3-5") in Feb that amounted to over 2 feet of snow for the month, then the above mentioned storm on March 5th that gave most of those areas shafted Jan 1st the jackpot, in the 9-11" range, and at least here, the most amazing lightning/thunder Ive ever seen in a snowstorm (even better than feb 20, 2011!). Of course there was also the Easter weekend blinding snowstorm that dropped another 6-9", followed by another 4-6" storm a few days before April to cement the winter into 4th place on Detroits all-time snow list. But despite all the above, everyones favorite thing to bring up is that damned cursed NYE storm! And yes, no one has the right to complain like Toronto folks. But these gut feelings that there will be literally no winter this year are just ridiculous. You are right, however I think we always miss on the "Big Snows" the 12"+. We get dry slotted or mixing issues, low is to close, there is always something that happens. GHDB was supposed to be a storm to remember, ended up being nothing to tell you the truth, lame sleet/ 10" of snow, and some wind. Don't remember the blizzard conditions at all. I think the year 2004? We had the one Viga storm, supposed to get a foot or so, we got 3". Now we did have that one awesome snow storm in 2005 I believe, expecting 7", we got around a foot+, drifts up to 2 feet , that was a surprise. ( might have been a clipper type of storm)...Also another really cool storm was the Christmas snow storm, when it literally took a turn towards Michigan, and it started snowing right around midnight, which was really neat. Not many were expecting a white christmas. So yeah, some good storms, but many are lame, and nickel and dimes. I would love to experience something that I will remember for a long time, something epic, like 2'+ snow. We had the chance with the GHDB storm, but hey that warm layer had to sneak in and turn the snow over to sleet.....but yeah, hopefully a good winter this year. Now Toronto really needs some prayers lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Remember 2002 everyone? Tons of snow before Christmas, vividly remember that big one in late November the week of the OSU vs Michigan game. Then once 2003 rolled around we got nothing Pains me to use a Bushism, but I think you're "misremembering" 2002-03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Pains me to use a Bushism, but I think you're "misremembering" 2002-03. Yep. Has to be 2000-01. Phenomenally front loaded winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 2000-01 and 2002-03 snowfall, monthly/season totals, for Toledo BTW. 2000-01 Nov: 1.2" Dec: 26.0" Jan: 3.2" Feb: 1.9" Mar: 5.2" Apr: T Total: 37.5" 2002-03 Nov: 5.7" Dec: 13.6" Jan: 14.1" Feb: 18.8" Mar: 3.7" Apr: 0.5" Total: 56.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Pains me to use a Bushism, but I think you're "misremembering" 2002-03. No I remember the storm. I don't remember the 26" in December 2000 though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 AO and NAO look to go moderately negative mid month. The models might have some interesting changes in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Anyone who is pessimistic about winter needs to buy a calender, it is only Nov 10th... Hell I can think of plenty of winters that started subpar. Josh even notes several cases above. Wait until Dec 15th before getting worried. Hell, when we are talking about winter as a whole, even December 15th means nothing. Remember 2005-06? Two feet of snow from Thanksgiving to Christmas and then the rest of winter was mild torture with very light snow. Imagine if we were around in 1932-33? After an early 1" snow on Nov 11th, Detroit sees its biggest November snowstorm on record on Nov 15/16th with 9". The season ends with a 6" snowstorm on March 25th. TOTAL snowfall from Nov 17th to March 24th? 9.8". Moral of the story: early cold/snow does NOT necessarily mean it will be a good winter. But larger is the sample size of winters that dont even get going until after New years and still end up as good winters, and its a downright huge sample size if you include winters that had next to nothing before mid-December. You almost never get a winter that is stormy from start to finish. Most are front or back loaded. The best thing a winter lover can do is hope that whichever side of winter is more boring at least features a snowcover. Like 2010-11...we had a nice 6.3" storm Dec 12th lay down a snowpack and then for the next month things on the storm front were pretty quiet until it ramped up big time from mid-Jan to mid-Mar. But during that quiet time we enjoyed a snowpack. Or the infamous winter of 1977-78? Just a few nickel and dime snowfalls after THE blizzard was all the rest of the winter mustered, but the deep snowpack and brutal cold made it a LONG winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Remember 2002 everyone? Tons of snow before Christmas, vividly remember that big one in late November the week of the OSU vs Michigan game. Then once 2003 rolled around we got nothing I think youre thinking 2005-06? Winter 2002-03 was very snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 You are right, however I think we always miss on the "Big Snows" the 12"+. We get dry slotted or mixing issues, low is to close, there is always something that happens. GHDB was supposed to be a storm to remember, ended up being nothing to tell you the truth, lame sleet/ 10" of snow, and some wind. Don't remember the blizzard conditions at all. I think the year 2004? We had the one Viga storm, supposed to get a foot or so, we got 3". Now we did have that one awesome snow storm in 2005 I believe, expecting 7", we got around a foot+, drifts up to 2 feet , that was a surprise. ( might have been a clipper type of storm)...Also another really cool storm was the Christmas snow storm, when it literally took a turn towards Michigan, and it started snowing right around midnight, which was really neat. Not many were expecting a white christmas. So yeah, some good storms, but many are lame, and nickel and dimes. I would love to experience something that I will remember for a long time, something epic, like 2'+ snow. We had the chance with the GHDB storm, but hey that warm layer had to sneak in and turn the snow over to sleet.....but yeah, hopefully a good winter this year. Now Toronto really needs some prayers lol.. GHD was a huge disappointment, and its all thanks to the damn models and stuff lol. If you would tell me I would start with a 6" snowpack and then have a storm drop 10" over 30 hours Feb 1/2 I would normally be ecstatic. But the forecasts of 12-16" (plus the drawn out nature of the storm) made it somewhat of a disappointment. Then three weeks later, a forecast of 1-3" of snow and ice becomes 10.2" of snow, including zero visibility and loud thundersnow (and this storm lasted for way less time than ghd). In the end the snow was still a little deeper on Feb 3rd than it was Feb 21st, but there is no comparison storm-wise. Dont remember the 2004 virga storm you speak of, do remember the 12" superclipper of Jan 2005 though, and I remember the Christmas 2002 storm, watching the news the "weatherguy" FLAT OUT said "no White Christmas this year" and we had 7" on the ground by Christmas afternoon! Heres to an epic storm AND a good winter in 2012-13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 2000-01 and 2002-03 snowfall, monthly/season totals, for Toledo BTW. 2000-01 Nov: 1.2" Dec: 26.0" Jan: 3.2" Feb: 1.9" Mar: 5.2" Apr: T Total: 37.5" 2002-03 Nov: 5.7" Dec: 13.6" Jan: 14.1" Feb: 18.8" Mar: 3.7" Apr: 0.5" Total: 56.4" 2005-06: Nov: 5.0" Dec: 21.5" Jan: 1.9" Feb: 1.5" Mar: 1.6" Total: 31.5" I added 2005-06 Toledo snowfall, as either 2000-01 or 2005-06 seems a good bet. And YIKES the 2006 portion of 2005-06 was even worse at TOL than DTW! Toledos calendar year snowfall was 72.0" in 2005 and 6.6" in 2006. The difference is at least in 2001 we had residual deep December snowpack last through almost mid-Feb. In 2006 the ground was already bare at New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Not really. Looks like a -PNA weak blocking bore. Even "cold air" is stale pacific variety. Just a typical lame November pattern. I'm just going by the red spaghetti plots. NAO wants to dive and the AO is considering the plunge. I wouldn't be shocked at all if we slip into a pre sandy blocky pattern by mid/late month. Just seems to be the trend and progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 GHD was a huge disappointment, and its all thanks to the damn models and stuff lol. If you would tell me I would start with a 6" snowpack and then have a storm drop 10" over 30 hours Feb 1/2 I would normally be ecstatic. But the forecasts of 12-16" (plus the drawn out nature of the storm) made it somewhat of a disappointment. Then three weeks later, a forecast of 1-3" of snow and ice becomes 10.2" of snow, including zero visibility and loud thundersnow (and this storm lasted for way less time than ghd). In the end the snow was still a little deeper on Feb 3rd than it was Feb 21st, but there is no comparison storm-wise. Dont remember the 2004 virga storm you speak of, do remember the 12" superclipper of Jan 2005 though, and I remember the Christmas 2002 storm, watching the news the "weatherguy" FLAT OUT said "no White Christmas this year" and we had 7" on the ground by Christmas afternoon! Heres to an epic storm AND a good winter in 2012-13 Your Words in God Ears! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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