Long Term Disco

[michsnowfreak]

I don't think your optimism is shared by many. But I hope you're right.

Of course it's not shared by many. This is a very debbie downer kind of board, and no one will EVER be optimistic ahead of anything. Even when a storm is on ones doorstep, we will hear guarentees that "I get dryslotted" or "I will miss the heavy snow to my N, S, E, W" etc etc. Its nothing new to weather boards, there was plenty of negativity in the good times....but last year was the first winter (since weather boards exploded in popularity) that weve really seen a real stinker winter, so negativity this year is now off the chart.

I will settle for some clippers making appearances, because "surprise" events tend pop up for every few events that disappear, and weve already seen 2 modeled events fizzle. Is there any reasoning for "well this threat didnt pan out so that means another system will kinda sneak up and surprise us"? No, but I see it multiple times every, single year (even last year), they just dont earn the acknowledgments that storms that disappear from the models do, its usually "oh, nice surprise" and thats it.

And I hope Im right too but remember, I know nothing about LR forecasting. I go by reading the informative posts of mets and others who know about that sort of thing. PNA, MJO, NAO, and on and on...it gives me a headache. But those who KNOW what their talking about have said as much, the pattern going forward (meaning mid-Dec and on) looks good. Is anything a guarentee? No. But history can be used as a guide...what patterns are good for who and what patterns are bad and so on and so forth. And the upcoming pattern would seem to favor the Lakes and New England.

But none of that matters. Nor does the fact that 4.5 months of snow chances are ahead. Nor does the fact that the first day of astronomical winter is 2 weeks away. Nor does the fact that the meteorological "dead of winter" is about 7 weeks away. All that matters is no one has snow right now, so pessimism will rule all.

[RCNYILWX]

Thanks. Ya, unfortunetely the signs the latter half of November weren't all that good coming into December, and that looks like that will verify with an unfavorable Pacific prevailing most of the month.

We need the warm neutral ENSO to flex any sort of muscle it has or else we may have issues with a -PNA much of the winter.

I second michsnowfreak's thoughts, excellent analysis. Regarding the PNA, I'd say that the eastern part of the forum area would certainly want a more neutral to +PNA, but the Western Lakes typically do well with a -PNA coupled with a -NAO as is being modeled now because the southeast ridge is suppressed some by the north Atlantic blocking and the -NAO would tend to keep the cold locked in and the Western Lakes on the cold side of a gradient type pattern. I think the biggest thing for all of us is to not have a screaming +EPO like the one that brought us the record warmth early this week.

Thanks! Hopefully we get some snow cover down for you soon enough (although it doesn't look great for anything extended for a little while)

[LakeEffectOH]

The Euro does show this situation slowly improving through day 10 however, which may bode well for –NAO chances heading into January.

OHWX, do you see the Pacific situation improving enough in January or later to help bring us at least 2-4 weeks of winter? The strong Pacific Jet contributed a lot in hosing last year's winter and convection west of the Dateline was pretty strong.

Personally, I believe this winter will be another dog, but better than last year. As opposed to getting practically no significantly cold weather, I do think we will see an extended 2-3 week period of winter followed by a more zonal mild flow and I think this winter period will happen sometime in January.

Thoughts?

BTW, great writeup on the current and situation for December.

[OHweather]

I second michsnowfreak's thoughts, excellent analysis. Regarding the PNA, I'd say that the eastern part of the forum area would certainly want a more neutral to +PNA, but the Western Lakes typically do well with a -PNA coupled with a -NAO as is being modeled now because the southeast ridge is suppressed some by the north Atlantic blocking and the -NAO would tend to keep the cold locked in and the Western Lakes on the cold side of a gradient type pattern. I think the biggest thing for all of us is to not have a screaming +EPO like the one that brought us the record warmth early this week.

Thanks.

It will be interesting to see how things play out over the next couple weeks. I agree that a -PNA isn't necessarily unfavorable over the northern/western lakes and it looks like those areas will pick up some snow over the next few days and potentially again towards the end of next week...it's getting snow into the Ohio Valley portion of the sub-forum that may be more challenging here in the short-mid term.

OHWX, do you see the Pacific situation improving enough in January or later to help bring us at least 2-4 weeks of winter? The strong Pacific Jet contributed a lot in hosing last year's winter and convection west of the Dateline was pretty strong.

Personally, I believe this winter will be another dog, but better than last year. As opposed to getting practically no significantly cold weather, I do think we will see an extended 2-3 week period of winter followed by a more zonal mild flow and I think this winter period will happen sometime in January.

Thoughts?

BTW, great writeup on the current and situation for December.

In my winter forecast I had December in the crapper for this region...with the Pacific jet becoming less dominating January into February...however, recent trends aren't exactly promising.

Unlike last year, we are seeing ridging in the Aleutians and for now appear to have weakened the GOA vortex that caused so much trouble last year...and we shouldn't see that become a problem on a significant basis through the winter.

Also unlike last winter, there is a classic tri-pole pattern in the Atlantic, which along with Nino climo favors a more negative NAO. Stratospheric warming also shows potential NAO/AO blocking will remain possible through the winter. This is good. My concern though is that with the ENSO only warm biased and not truely into Nino type warm anomalies...which probably won't change...combined with a warm Indian Ocean and cold PDO, that we will continue to see a more Nina like pattern with higher heights over the Aleutians with cold air dumping into Alaska, western Canada and the northern Rockies/Plains.

That will try to raise heights over the central and eastern US. So, it will be interesting to see if we can get periods of -NAO to bring more of the cold that will likely be sitting to our NW much of the winter southeast and get some, perhaps more transient, periods of cold/snowy weather.

Until we see the atmosphere act more like an El Nino than a La Nina, I think we'll be relegated to "roller coaster" type weather with lots of storms, but lots of systems that miss to our northwest. I'm not confident enough to guess when that will happen...other than after a brief shot of potentially colder weather near mid-December, not until early January at the earliest IMO. Once that happens we may get your 2-4 week window. The GLAAM, after spending a week or so in more El Nino like phases has fallen to near neutral...which illustrates we aren't in an El Nino type pattern yet and shouldn't get too optimistic about persistent convection east of the dateline and a more +PNA.

Even though I'm not optimistic on an extended period of cold yet...this pattern may allow snow totals to begin climbing quickly in the northern/western Lakes, with below normal snow over the Ohio Valley, and more variable amounts in between.

[Spwild47]

Looking at the research on snow depth and albdedo, it seems that about 60-70% of the max Tmax depression is in the the first 8cm or 3.1 in of snow, after which the slope levels off with diminishing returns. The temperature effect appears to be about 3C in grassland areas or about 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit...and the areas west of the OV in Nebraska, Iowa, and the Dakotas include a lot of plowed under corn and grassland. Also, on days that would normally be a bit above freezing, the latent heat of fusion of the snow would suck heat our of the surface air. And snow makes a nice buffer when cloud cover is low during the day..

Of course a deep snowpack would be preferred..but if we had that we would already be happy..just a few inches spread over a wide area is nothing to dismiss as inconsequential..

No doubt a deep snow pack helps. But like stated a couple of inches is not enough. What would be nice is if a snow pack can keep building. Essentially aiding arctic intrusions.

[wisconsinwx]

Looking at the research on snow depth and albdedo, it seems that about 60-70% of the max Tmax depression is in the the first 8cm or 3.1 in of snow, after which the slope levels off with diminishing returns. The temperature effect appears to be about 3C in grassland areas or about 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit...and the areas west of the OV in Nebraska, Iowa, and the Dakotas include a lot of plowed under corn and grassland. Also, on days that would normally be a bit above freezing, the latent heat of fusion of the snow would suck heat our of the surface air. And snow makes a nice buffer when cloud cover is low during the day..

Of course a deep snowpack would be preferred..but if we had that we would already be happy..just a few inches spread over a wide area is nothing to dismiss as inconsequential..

Not to mention much of NW Wisconsin and C Minnesota is looking at 6-10" amounts, most of which will stick around with highs in the 20s in that area next week. To me that's a substantial snowpack, hence my mention of it.

[LakeEffectOH]

Thanks.

It will be interesting to see how things play out over the next couple weeks. I agree that a -PNA isn't necessarily unfavorable over the northern/western lakes and it looks like those areas will pick up some snow over the next few days and potentially again towards the end of next week...it's getting snow into the Ohio Valley portion of the sub-forum that may be more challenging here in the short-mid term.

In my winter forecast I had December in the crapper for this region...with the Pacific jet becoming less dominating January into February...however, recent trends aren't exactly promising.

Unlike last year, we are seeing ridging in the Aleutians and for now appear to have weakened the GOA vortex that caused so much trouble last year...and we shouldn't see that become a problem on a significant basis through the winter.

Also unlike last winter, there is a classic tri-pole pattern in the Atlantic, which along with Nino climo favors a more negative NAO. Stratospheric warming also shows potential NAO/AO blocking will remain possible through the winter. This is good. My concern though is that with the ENSO only warm biased and not truely into Nino type warm anomalies...which probably won't change...combined with a warm Indian Ocean and cold PDO, that we will continue to see a more Nina like pattern with higher heights over the Aleutians with cold air dumping into Alaska, western Canada and the northern Rockies/Plains.

That will try to raise heights over the central and eastern US. So, it will be interesting to see if we can get periods of -NAO to bring more of the cold that will likely be sitting to our NW much of the winter southeast and get some, perhaps more transient, periods of cold/snowy weather.

Until we see the atmosphere act more like an El Nino than a La Nina, I think we'll be relegated to "roller coaster" type weather with lots of storms, but lots of systems that miss to our northwest. I'm not confident enough to guess when that will happen...other than after a brief shot of potentially colder weather near mid-December, not until early January at the earliest IMO. Once that happens we may get your 2-4 week window. The GLAAM, after spending a week or so in more El Nino like phases has fallen to near neutral...which illustrates we aren't in an El Nino type pattern yet and shouldn't get too optimistic about persistent convection east of the dateline and a more +PNA.

Even though I'm not optimistic on an extended period of cold yet...this pattern may allow snow totals to begin climbing quickly in the northern/western Lakes, with below normal snow over the Ohio Valley, and more variable amounts in between.

This is true about the atmospheric setup being very different than last year. Our biggest problem is the N. Pacific SSTA pattern is lousy. The NE Pacific is colder than normal and there is a huge pool of warm SSTs extending from Japan northeast to the Kamchatka Peninsula and then southeast out into the Pacific. Finally SSTs are warming in the Phillipine Islands/Indonesia area. Warm waters in that area (cooler this year) promote convection potentially putting the MJO into Stage 5 (last year the MJO spent a lot of time in Stage 5 as well as in the Circle of Death near Stage 5) Wish I could post a map, but my Photoshop is down.

However recently the MJO has been in the COD, and many models are showing it moving into Stages One and Two. That is a hope as it may disturb the bad Pacific pattern somewhat.

I agree with your ideas on the NAO as it looks to be on the negative side, thanks in part to the North Atlantic Tripole. It is the - NAO and a possible + to neutral PNA that would bring us to a more significant (extended) period of winter as I mentioned.

Yes, in the meantime, the cold to the northwest will allow a snowpack to form. I see the snow pack working slowly south and east as the cold in Canada "follows" the snowpack to the south and east. This could bring an overunning event before Christmas provided the EPO does not go positive and flood the US & Sou. Canada with warm air that would, at least, melt the southern part of the snowpack.

The models, like last year, are everywhere out past seven days and they keep flip flopping. I don't trust the modeling past seven days. Even the 5 - 7 day period is iffy with the mods.

Hopefully, as you forecast, the Pac Jet will calm down in a few weeks in time for January and February.

[hawkeye_wx]

The models may be fairly consistently showing some kind of system a week out, but they also show a dispiriting lack of cold air across the region ahead of the storm.

[Spwild47]

Great post OH

An interesting give and take looks like it may ensure between the Atlantic and Pacific over the coming weeks…

Although the WPO remains stubbornly and strongly negative, there is good model consensus on the WPO quickly rising to neutral over the next week…with some variability in the forecast thereafter. This –WPO has been responsible for allowing higher than normal heights to persist over the Bering Sea for the better part of the past month to month and a half, which has resulted in very cold air building in Alaska and Western Canada. This air has occasionally come southeast in parts, however, this strong –WPO encourages troughing near the west coast of North America and higher heights over the central part of the county.

So, with the -WPO weakening, will the Pacific pattern become more favorable?

The answer likely lies in getting convection east of the dateline…

Over the past month, tropical convection has been focused west of the dateline and to some extent over the Indian Ocean, which has aided the massive NE Asian vortex in creating a strong jet over the Western Pacific, helping to maintain higher than normal heights in the Bering Sea:

So, even with the NE Asian vortex appearing to be closer and closer to weakening significantly, we still will likely see a pattern that favors higher heights near the Aleutians and lower heights over northwestern N. America, which is more typical of a La Nina than an El Nino.

However, for the past couple of days the ECM ensembles and now to some extent the GFS ensembles are trying to show a fairly potent MJO wave propagate east of the dateline over the next week:

This may favor a brief relaxation of the –PNA pattern that has been persisting for several weeks now near mid-month. However, the Euro ensembles are trying to bring the convection back into the Indian Ocean by the last third of the month, which would again allow a stronger than normal sub-tropical jet to set up from eastern Asia into the western Pacific, with higher heights again being favored over the Aleutians into the Bering Sea, with lower than normal heights being favored over northwestern N. America.

Given the last modeled MJO pulse failed to really propagate east of the dateline, I’d tend to favor this next one doing the same, with the –PNA pattern potentially relaxing on a temporary scale, but not going away and potentially becoming more entrenched again for the latter portions of December.

As we look towards the Atlantic side, after frequent blocking persisting through a good portion of the spring, summer, and much of fall, the NAO has been stubbornly near neutral for the last ¾ of November and the first week of December. This however looks to change in the short term, mainly due to a more active storm track over eastern N. America:

Over the past month, the strong Pacific jet has made it hard to see consistent amplification over the eastern US and thus, it has been for the most part storm free and dry from the Plains east over the past month. This is going to change however, as the Pacific jet, as discussed above, while not optimal, will still relax over the coming days. Given the cold air that has been waiting in the wings over Canada for the past couple of weeks is finally going to be allowed to come south, a better baroclinic zone will be set up over the central-northern US. This should combine with the –PNA allowing energy to frequently eject east out of the west to setup a much stormier pattern, as modeled, over mainly the central part of the country. As these storms consistently ride NE into eastern Canada they will force higher heights to build over the N. Atlantic over the next few days and allow the NAO to go more negative;

However, there are a couple of reasons this –NAO blocking episode may be of the temporary variety…firstly, the stratosphere actually remains very cold over the northern Atlantic and Europe, which may make it difficult to sustain prolonged tropospheric blocking in that region:

The Euro does show this situation slowly improving through day 10 however, which may bode well for –NAO chances heading into January.

The other factor is the potential re-emergence of a more unfavorable Pacific jet for the last 7-10 days of December. If we see the pattern again flatten out across the eastern 2/3rds of N. America, the NAO blocking will slowly weaken and the index will return to near neutral or positive once again.

So, to sum it up:

-Storm early next week won’t be the “big one” but will lay down some snow across the western Great Lakes and upper Midwest, and will assist in lowering the NAO.

-Gradient pattern should persist through the middle third of December, and with the NAO going negative and Pacific potentially relaxing to some extent in this timeframe, the gradient should shift south into the lower lakes/upper Ohio Valley in this time frame.

-I do think we will have at least one if not two synoptic storm threats to track in the middle third of December. It is too early to determine who will cash in but if we do see a two storm scenario I’d favor the northern/western Lakes initially and potentially the lower lakes/upper Ohio Valley with the next system. This does not include this Sunday-Monday’s storm.

-I think we see the –NAO weaken and –PNA re-intensify for the last 7-10 days of December, setting up a moderating trend in that timeframe.

[A-L-E-K]

lol @ the torch in med range...so much for our cold pattern

[snowstormcanuck]

12z GFS is a disaster in the med. range. E PAC ridge keeps being breached by these s/ws cruising through AK. Not to the same magnitude of last year's vortex of death, but it keeps heights too low across AK through the period. With the PV locked up and no help from the Atlantic, things could get real ugly around here through the 20th. In fact, with these models incessant need to change the pattern too quickly, might be getting to the point where December is a write off. I won't go that far just yet though.

[snowstormcanuck]

lol @ the torch in med range...so much for our cold pattern

Nothing's verified yet, but if this BS comes to fruition it'll go to show that even interpretations from the most learned and respected mets can sometimes amount to a pile of beans.

[toronto blizzard]

I'm curious mike if there's ever been a December at YYZ that's gone snowless? I think not but I'm not sure

[buckeye]

12z GFS is a disaster in the med. range. E PAC ridge keeps being breached by these s/ws cruising through AK. Not to the same magnitude of last year's vortex of death, but it keeps heights too low across AK through the period. With the PV locked up and no help from the Atlantic, things could get real ugly around here through the 20th. In fact, with these models incessant need to change the pattern too quickly, might be getting to the point where December is a write off. I won't go that far just yet though.

and all of this with a forecasted neg nao and neg AO. Wait till those puppies jump positve

[Ottawa Blizzard]

This is so reminding me of 2001 when all the indices seemed to support s cold pattern, and yet such a pattern never materialized. Seriously, this will be the third December of the past four in which the UK and Europe have seen more cold and snow than us. True, the set up is very different from last year, but the end result is the same. Mild in eastern Canada.

Remember that two awful winters in a row is not unheard of. 1931-32 and 1932-33 were both busts.

[SpartyOn]

It might not be last year.... But this December sucks just as bad as last year. Heres to a stringer of stinkers.

[snowstormcanuck]

I'm curious mike if there's ever been a December at YYZ that's gone snowless? I think not but I'm not sure

Nope. YYZ (Pearson) has never had a December without measurable snow. I guess technically downtown had one last year, but it's missing so much data I wouldn't consider it. Record lowest snowfall for December at YYZ was 1.6cm (0.6") in 2006.

[buckeye]

This is so reminding me of 2001 when all the indices seemed to support s cold pattern, and yet such a pattern never materialized. Seriously, this will be the third December of the past four in which the UK and Europe have seen more cold and snow than us. True, the set up is very different from last year, but the end result is the same. Mild in eastern Canada.

Remember that two awful winters in a row is not unheard of. 1931-32 and 1932-33 were both busts.

Everyone tries to provide comfort by saying that this winter's set up is much different than last winters. The fact that the results are still looking similar, (so far), makes it even more depressing to say we are in a differnt pattern than last winter.

Afterall, at least if the pattern was still the same as last winter, a pattern change would actually provide some hope.

[toronto blizzard]

Maybe this December will set a new record low for snow in Toronto.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Maybe this December will set a new record low for snow in Toronto.

I think there was a snowless December sometime in the late 19th century downtown.

[michsnowfreak]

Remember that two awful winters in a row is not unheard of. 1931-32 and 1932-33 were both busts.

This has happened many times in the past, not just those 2 years.

It may happen this year, it may not, but we wont know for months if that will be the case this year though. I just cannot get over people thinking the rut we are in now means the entire winter will suck. Simply blows my mind.

[michsnowfreak]

It might not be last year.... But this December sucks just as bad as last year. Heres to a stringer of stinkers.

Last December actually started out seasonable and we had snowfalls on Dec 5th and 9th. The rest of the month was a torch with like two more slushy dustings. So basically I would take the first 8 days of last December over this years. But I usually wait until a month is 100% over, not 25% over, to make such a comparison.

I dont know about Toronto, but Detroit HAD had a snowless December. Top 10 (actually 11) least snowy

01.) 0.0" - 1889

02.) 0.4" - 1894

03.) 0.9" - 1943

04.) 1.2" - 1888

05.) 1.2" - 1998

06.) 1.3" - 1931

07.) 1.4" - 1982

08.) 1.6" - 1936

09.) 1.6" - 1965

10.) 1.9" - 1939

11.) 1.9" - 1993

Detroit will see at least 5 inches of snow this December. Book it.

[toronto blizzard]

I think there was a snowless December sometime in the late 19th century downtown.

It seems like winter is everywhere in the northern hemisphere but here in eastern canada. Ughh why do I live here.

[Toronto4]

I think there was a snowless December sometime in the late 19th century downtown.

The record for the least December snow in downtown Toronto was set both in 1877 and 2006 (0.3"/0.8 cm).

WRT the pattern ahead, it's going to be interesting to see if models start reacting to the forecasted MJO push into phase 1. Usually the MJO in phase 1 or 2 results in colder than normal weather (or at least seasonable) in our neck of the woods.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

This has happened many times in the past, not just those 2 years.

It may happen this year, it may not, but we wont know for months if that will be the case this year though. I just cannot get over people thinking the rut we are in now means the entire winter will suck. Simply blows my mind.

I think it's just that the perception seems to be that while snow and severe cold still do happen, winter seems to be getting shorter and starting later. That may or may not be a misconception, but I think it is the source of people's frustration regardless.

[Hoosier]

Sort of a weird looking system on the 12z Euro around day 10. There's a negatively tilted trough with a deepening low in the OV (sub 990 mb) with pretty much no precip on the cold side.

[Chicago WX]

Sort of a weird looking system on the 12z Euro around day 10. There's a negatively tilted trough with a deepening low in the OV (sub 990 mb) with pretty much no precip on the cold side.

That exact scenario might put me over the edge.

[Hoosier]

That exact scenario might put me over the edge.

Might look better just after that timeframe but no use speculating.

[hawkeye_wx]

The day 7 storm, for now, at least appears promising moisturewise. Obviously we'd all like heavy snow, but those of us on the western side of the sub-forum's region would gladly take a decent soaking.

[michsnowfreak]

I think it's just that the perception seems to be that while snow and severe cold still do happen, winter seems to be getting shorter and starting later. That may or may not be a misconception, but I think it is the source of people's frustration regardless.

A December like 2011 or SO FAR 2012 is what I EXPECTED in the 1990s. Then the 2000s saw some sweet Decembers and weve come full circle. Breaking out the decadal averages, in fact, the 1990s saw the 3rd least snowy (just a few tenths behind 1930s and 1940s) and warmest Decembers on record...while the 2000s saw the 2nd SNOWIEST Decembers (behind only the 1970s).

If using decadal averages are any sort of gage, a summation for here could be that winters are shorter but harsher than they used to be. And this is only based on the fact mid-winter snowfall is increasing while autumn snowfall is decreasing. At DTW...the 1990s and 2000s had the TWO LEAST snowy Novembers of any decade but the TWO MOST snowy Januarys of any decade. But thats for us weather gurus, dont give the general public any sort of kudos....the general public is probably more ignorant about their weather/climate than anything else.