Long Term Disco

[Chicago WX]

LAF will take the next one for the team (RE: 12z GFS at 180-216 hours). You are all welcome.

[wisconsinwx]

LAF will take the next one for the team (RE: 12z GFS at 180-216 hours). You are all welcome.

How about you take the next low so S Wisconsin will get their storm, then Dayton will take the apocalyptic storm so you get your GHD blizzard?

[Chicago WX]

How about you take the next low so S Wisconsin will get their storm, then Dayton will take the apocalyptic storm so you get your GHD blizzard?

Deal. But just to be safe, CMH will do for the LAF storm.

[wisconsinwx]

Deal. But just to be safe, CMH will do for the LAF storm.

Yeah, I was thinking about Indy for a moment when I said Dayton, but I suppose you just want the further NE city to make it all snow.

[Thundersnow12]

3 GFS runs in a row now pegging that storm out in day 8/9 land.

Don't make a thread on it yet, please.

[wisconsinwx]

3 GFS runs in a row now pegging that storm out in day 8/9 land.

Don't make a thread on it yet, please.

No, not until this storm ends Monday, imo. Maybe Sunday if it's still there.

[mnweather]

Id wait til its within 5 days.

[Geos]

No, not until this storm ends Monday, imo. Maybe Sunday if it's still there.

Id wait til its within 5 days.

Agreed.

Anyway, we don't want to jinx it!

[HighTechEE]

I can't believe it is the 7th of December and I am still awaiting the first inch of snow here in West Michigan!

Yea and Charleston WVA picked up over 10" back in OCTOBER!

[A-L-E-K]

3 GFS runs in a row now pegging that storm out in day 8/9 land.

Don't make a thread on it yet, please.

Looks just like our current turd did at this range

[wisconsinwx]

Looks just like our current turd did at this range

The reason this became a turd was the northern low messing it up. Another positive is there will be a snowpack in the Upper Midwest, likely helping it become a typical panhandle hooker if the storm does develop.

[BowMeHunter]

congrats msp

[A-L-E-K]

The "well there's snowpack now" is probably my least favorite talking point. the few inches that will be on the ground in MN is going to have a negligible effect on the baroclinic zone that sets up over the southern plains...much less the countless other more important players like the Pacific ridge and Atlantic high.

The only time the snowpack talk is interesting is if we're talking about an expansive deep pack and a quasi stationary front / ice setup.

[SpartyOn]

The "well there's snowpack now" is probably my least favorite talking point. the few inches that will be on the ground in MN is going to have a negligible effect on the baroclinic zone that sets up over the southern plains...much less the countless other more important players like the Pacific ridge and Atlantic high.

The only time the snowpack talk is interesting is if we're talking about an expansive deep pack and a quasi stationary front / ice setup.

This

Besides a hooker with the projected NAO might be a long shot.

[Jonger]

The "well there's snowpack now" is probably my least favorite talking point. the few inches that will be on the ground in MN is going to have a negligible effect on the baroclinic zone that sets up over the southern plains...much less the countless other more important players like the Pacific ridge and Atlantic high.

The only time the snowpack talk is interesting is if we're talking about an expansive deep pack and a quasi stationary front / ice setup.

Upstream snow-pack can cut a few degrees off of a pacific flow moving downstream. I doubt it will make much difference in the short term though.

[SpartyOn]

Upstream snow-pack can cut a few degrees off of a pacific flow moving downstream. I doubt it will make much difference in the short term though.

No doubt a deep snow pack helps. But like stated a couple of inches is not enough. What would be nice is if a snow pack can keep building. Essentially aiding arctic intrusions.

[A-L-E-K]

No doubt a deep snow pack helps. But like stated a couple of inches is not enough. What would be nice is if a snow pack can keep building. Essentially aiding arctic intrusions.

there is no artic intrusion to aide

[hm8]

Looks just like our current turd did at this range

Running the same plays after a punt on a failed drive... Need to get a new offensive coordinator

[Gilbertfly]

The "well there's snowpack now" is probably my least favorite talking point. the few inches that will be on the ground in MN is going to have a negligible effect on the baroclinic zone that sets up over the southern plains...much less the countless other more important players like the Pacific ridge and Atlantic high.

The only time the snowpack talk is interesting is if we're talking about an expansive deep pack and a quasi stationary front / ice setup.

Snowpack always has to start somewhere...So i feel there is some significance to it....It's like learning to walk before you run...however, just because you can walk doesn't mean you will become a marathon winner or 100 yard dash champion....but they both had to start somewhere....

Myself...i'm a gold medalist pogo-sticker-guy

[Chicago WX]

And the 12z Euro makes three for something in the 7-8-9 day range. No sense in getting worked up about the specifics at this point. As we know, devil is always in the details...which hopefully, eventually, work out in someone's favor down the road.

[gosaints]

EURO looks intruiging and 180

[Hoosier]

And the 12z Euro makes three for something in the 7-8-9 day range. No sense in getting worked up about the specifics at this point. As we know, devil is always in the details...which hopefully, eventually, work out in someone's favor down the road.

Certainly looks like the next significant potential, whether anything becomes of it.

[BowMeHunter]

Hopefully the step down process has started... First congrats goes to MN this weekend..Then Iowa and Madison...Then roughly north of a line from St Louis to Indy to Cleavland... Then a Massive Asteroid hits CMH on December 21st.

[buckeye]

Hopefully the step down process has started... First congrats goes to MN this weekend..Then Iowa and Madison...Then roughly north of a line from St Louis to Indy to Cleavland... Then a Massive Asteroid hits CMH on December 21st.

The crater would fill and become the new southern great lake. Imagine upslope snows during lake effect events on the western side of the apps in KY and WV....TRULY EPIC

[WestMichigan]

The crater would fill and become the new southern great lake. Imagine upslope snows during lake effect events on the western side of the apps in KY and WV....TRULY EPIC

I can always count on you Buckeye to provide a good comment.

[OHweather]

An interesting give and take looks like it may ensure between the Atlantic and Pacific over the coming weeks…

Although the WPO remains stubbornly and strongly negative, there is good model consensus on the WPO quickly rising to neutral over the next week…with some variability in the forecast thereafter. This –WPO has been responsible for allowing higher than normal heights to persist over the Bering Sea for the better part of the past month to month and a half, which has resulted in very cold air building in Alaska and Western Canada. This air has occasionally come southeast in parts, however, this strong –WPO encourages troughing near the west coast of North America and higher heights over the central part of the county.

So, with the -WPO weakening, will the Pacific pattern become more favorable?

The answer likely lies in getting convection east of the dateline…

Over the past month, tropical convection has been focused west of the dateline and to some extent over the Indian Ocean, which has aided the massive NE Asian vortex in creating a strong jet over the Western Pacific, helping to maintain higher than normal heights in the Bering Sea:

So, even with the NE Asian vortex appearing to be closer and closer to weakening significantly, we still will likely see a pattern that favors higher heights near the Aleutians and lower heights over northwestern N. America, which is more typical of a La Nina than an El Nino.

However, for the past couple of days the ECM ensembles and now to some extent the GFS ensembles are trying to show a fairly potent MJO wave propagate east of the dateline over the next week:

This may favor a brief relaxation of the –PNA pattern that has been persisting for several weeks now near mid-month. However, the Euro ensembles are trying to bring the convection back into the Indian Ocean by the last third of the month, which would again allow a stronger than normal sub-tropical jet to set up from eastern Asia into the western Pacific, with higher heights again being favored over the Aleutians into the Bering Sea, with lower than normal heights being favored over northwestern N. America.

Given the last modeled MJO pulse failed to really propagate east of the dateline, I’d tend to favor this next one doing the same, with the –PNA pattern potentially relaxing on a temporary scale, but not going away and potentially becoming more entrenched again for the latter portions of December.

As we look towards the Atlantic side, after frequent blocking persisting through a good portion of the spring, summer, and much of fall, the NAO has been stubbornly near neutral for the last ¾ of November and the first week of December. This however looks to change in the short term, mainly due to a more active storm track over eastern N. America:

Over the past month, the strong Pacific jet has made it hard to see consistent amplification over the eastern US and thus, it has been for the most part storm free and dry from the Plains east over the past month. This is going to change however, as the Pacific jet, as discussed above, while not optimal, will still relax over the coming days. Given the cold air that has been waiting in the wings over Canada for the past couple of weeks is finally going to be allowed to come south, a better baroclinic zone will be set up over the central-northern US. This should combine with the –PNA allowing energy to frequently eject east out of the west to setup a much stormier pattern, as modeled, over mainly the central part of the country. As these storms consistently ride NE into eastern Canada they will force higher heights to build over the N. Atlantic over the next few days and allow the NAO to go more negative;

However, there are a couple of reasons this –NAO blocking episode may be of the temporary variety…firstly, the stratosphere actually remains very cold over the northern Atlantic and Europe, which may make it difficult to sustain prolonged tropospheric blocking in that region:

The Euro does show this situation slowly improving through day 10 however, which may bode well for –NAO chances heading into January.

The other factor is the potential re-emergence of a more unfavorable Pacific jet for the last 7-10 days of December. If we see the pattern again flatten out across the eastern 2/3rds of N. America, the NAO blocking will slowly weaken and the index will return to near neutral or positive once again.

So, to sum it up:

-Storm early next week won’t be the “big one” but will lay down some snow across the western Great Lakes and upper Midwest, and will assist in lowering the NAO.

-Gradient pattern should persist through the middle third of December, and with the NAO going negative and Pacific potentially relaxing to some extent in this timeframe, the gradient should shift south into the lower lakes/upper Ohio Valley in this time frame.

-I do think we will have at least one if not two synoptic storm threats to track in the middle third of December. It is too early to determine who will cash in but if we do see a two storm scenario I’d favor the northern/western Lakes initially and potentially the lower lakes/upper Ohio Valley with the next system. This does not include this Sunday-Monday’s storm.

-I think we see the –NAO weaken and –PNA re-intensify for the last 7-10 days of December, setting up a moderating trend in that timeframe.

[michsnowfreak]

Good analysis from OH!

[OHweather]

Good post. That is how I see it as well. If somebody in this region doesn't strike gold by mid-month, probably won't get pretty afterwards. Hopefully January, the pacific changes to something of a "real" cold pattern.

Thanks. Ya, unfortunetely the signs the latter half of November weren't all that good coming into December, and that looks like that will verify with an unfavorable Pacific prevailing most of the month.

We need the warm neutral ENSO to flex any sort of muscle it has or else we may have issues with a -PNA much of the winter.

Good analysis from OH!

Thanks! Hopefully we get some snow cover down for you soon enough (although it doesn't look great for anything extended for a little while)

[michsnowfreak]

Thanks. Ya, unfortunetely the signs the latter half of November weren't all that good coming into December, and that looks like that will verify with an unfavorable Pacific prevailing most of the month.

We need the warm neutral ENSO to flex any sort of muscle it has or else we may have issues with a -PNA much of the winter.

Thanks! Hopefully we get some snow cover down for you soon enough (although it doesn't look great for anything extended for a little while)

My dream winter is one of solid snowcover Nov-Apr, but I know thats unrealistic...for the mean time I will settle for bouts of snowcover and snowiness . As we sit here on the 7th, the usual "cold is being pushed back" and "pattern doesnt look good" posts are a-plenty, but in reality we have known since practically Thanksgiving that the first 10 days of December were shot. An increase in storminess is already starting to take place, so really I dont think anyone north of 40N should be that worried. If we make it through December with very little snow....THEN Id be pissed....but the signs are not pointing that way. They now have an analysis thread in the NE forum which is good because it cuts out a lot of the excessive banter.

[SpartyOn]

My dream winter is one of solid snowcover Nov-Apr, but I know thats unrealistic...for the mean time I will settle for bouts of snowcover and snowiness . As we sit here on the 7th, the usual "cold is being pushed back" and "pattern doesnt look good" but in reality we have known since practically Thanksgiving that the first 10 days of December were shot. An increase in storminess is already starting to take place, so really I dont think anyone north of 40N should be that worried. If we make it through December with very little snow....THEN Id be pissed....but the signs are not pointing that way. They now have an analysis thread in the NE forum which is good because it cuts out a lot of the excessive banter.

I don't think your optimism is shared by many. But I hope you're right.