A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 It will be hard to sustain our futility streak if the Euro long range is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Some would say that it has flipped. With last year the corner stone and starting line. Some would say that, but theyd be a fool to say anything other than 2011-12 was a mild winter in the US and cold in Europe. This winter has JUST begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Funny how when the day 10 op Euro isn't a torch, no map gets posted. The reverse of course isn't true. Alas, both are silly typically. so true!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Jon Davis showed how Sandy put so much latent heat and momentum into the jet stream, that it melted 1/5 of the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. That's an interesting, fun fact! It's kind of funny because Sandy ended up producing snow! 1/5 of the snow cover in late October, really early November wouldn't be covering the area it is now, so good thing Sandy didn't come much later into the season. I'm guessing a lot of that melted in Scandanavia and the Labrador?... Good amount of snow pack now established over the NH now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Of course even if the pattern modeled in the extended verifies, there may be some "congrats MSP" systems, but I believe we'll have our chances in this part of the region too. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I'm thinking this month might be lost... At least through the 20th. Not a good start to this winter, Europe on the other hand will get a second straight A+ start the winter. Jon ***POST RETRACTED*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Lol x2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Who was he referring to getting the living crap beat out of us? northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Of course even if the pattern modeled in the extended verifies, there may be some "congrats MSP" systems, but I believe we'll have our chances in this part of the region too. Time will tell. 12z GFS looked nice through 240hr, lots of cold for storms to tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I'm thinking this month might be lost... At least through the 20th. Not a good start to this winter, Europe on the other hand will get a second straight A+ start the winter. Jon In 12 hrs you will post... I'm thinking this month might get interesting... At least through the 20th. decent start to this winter, Europe on the other hand will get a second straight A+ start the winter. Looks pretty decent to me. Maybe not huge storms but enough cold to give us snow depth ***POST RETRACTED*** It was not quite 12 hrs but I knew you would change your mind...You change your mind like my 2 year old daughter gets her diaper changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 ***POST RETRACTED*** DTX AFD just b**ch slapped you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 A -NAO and RNA like being modeled on the euro would possibly bring near historic snows to the Midwest for someone. That is exactly the kind of pattern those guys need, like in Chicago e.g. Anybody familiar with the RNA acronym? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Anybody familiar with the RNA acronym? -PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Sounds like good times coming up for all of us (hopefully) in the next couple of weeks according to HM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 northern IL. Ah. I was a bit confused with the trough in the west, ridge east part. Im guessing that implies SE MI may do good but have to deal with a few warmer systems as well. I know a few days ago Harry said the weeklies looked excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 DTX AFD just b**ch slapped you. I don't see much of a storm for SE Michigan.... Never have. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Anybody familiar with the RNA acronym? Viral form of DNA? Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Anybody familiar with the RNA acronym? I had to look it up, I never heard of it as RNA only as +/-PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I don't see much of a storm for SE Michigan.... Never have. Jon Speaking only of the pattern and the next 10-15 days. Nothing to do about this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I noticed in the NE forum ORH mentioned that pretty much all ensembles agree on a -NAO, which I know can be better for them than us for bigger storms, but its very good for at least a wintry time of things. Regardless it is looking like colder weather is moving in. Its not so far in fantasy land. As nice as a big storm would be, we have months to worry about that. I just want SOME snowcover down for a festive Christmas mood. I have an outdoor Christmas event Dec 18th Im REALLY hoping is white. A word for the wise as we gear up for clipper season. Based on my observations of clippers in the past...Clippers are THE most notorious of ALL weather systems for popping up with only a few days notice. The reverse is also true (clippers showing up and then disappearing), though not quite as common. Any time a clipper is modeled like a week out (or more) and it stays the course the whole time (by stays the course I mean it stays on the models, its track will shift no matter what) chances are you will be seeing a nice clipper with "overperformer" written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 00z GFS has a blizzard of 1999 redux in the long-range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 00z GFS has a blizzard of 1999 redux in the long-range I know its in Fantasy land. Damn that looks sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 The next 2 weeks are more exciting than any one day in my neighborhood during winter 2011-2012.... I can't say that for Grayling, right Josh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 The next 2 weeks are more exciting than any one day in my neighborhood during winter 2011-2012.... I can't say that for Grayling, right Josh? I head to NWLM sometime middle/late next week should be real interesting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 The next 2 weeks are more exciting than any one day in my neighborhood during winter 2011-2012.... I can't say that for Grayling, right Josh? At least the potential is there, lets see if we get some fun! Last winter, the Feb 10/11 arctic front was one of the coolest things Ive been out it because it went from a completely calm snowglobe to a loud, windblown whiteout in LITERALLY seconds. BUT that was it for the excitement locally for the entire winter (all our other events were very run-of-the-mill light snowfalls). On the other hand...the Grayling storm was AWESOME! It was their best storm AND deepest snow in several years, not to mention one of the locals told me they NEVER get such deep, wet (ie picturesque) snow (its usually powder)....and we were there! Whats funny is as bad as my luck is for getting the BIG 13"+ storm...I have no problem seeing thundersnow, which I consider lucky because not everyone gets to see it. My list grows by the year....all storms with the exception of Mar 2, 2012 are imby/dtw. These are what I have PERSONALLY experienced....there were others that supposedly had TSSN but I didnt see it Feb 22, 2003 Mar 4, 2008 Dec 19, 2008 Feb 1, 2011 Feb 20, 2011 Mar 2, 2012 If I had to rank the most amazing thundersnow, itd be: Mar 4, 2008 Feb 20, 2011 Mar 2, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 At least the potential is there, lets see if we get some fun! Last winter, the Feb 10/11 arctic front was one of the coolest things Ive been out it because it went from a completely calm snowglobe to a loud, windblown whiteout in LITERALLY seconds. BUT that was it for the excitement locally for the entire winter (all our other events were very run-of-the-mill light snowfalls). On the other hand...the Grayling storm was AWESOME! It was their best storm AND deepest snow in several years, not to mention one of the locals told me they NEVER get such deep, wet (ie picturesque) snow (its usually powder)....and we were there! Whats funny is as bad as my luck is for getting the BIG 13"+ storm...I have no problem seeing thundersnow, which I consider lucky because not everyone gets to see it. My list grows by the year....all storms with the exception of Mar 2, 2012 are imby/dtw. These are what I have PERSONALLY experienced....there were others that supposedly had TSSN but I didnt see it Feb 22, 2003 Mar 4, 2008 Dec 19, 2008 Feb 1, 2011 Feb 20, 2011 Mar 2, 2012 If I had to rank the most amazing thundersnow, itd be: Mar 4, 2008 Feb 20, 2011 Mar 2, 2012 The 6 inches we got on 11-29/30 was the highlight last year, but that wasn't technically into met winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Loving the death of the GOA trough, which is something that most of the models have been hinting at in the extended. However, the spatial setup kind of concerns me. The E PAC ridge looks too far west for those of us in the eastern part of the subforum. It's like a pseudo +EPO, which is generally not a good teleconnector. The whole pattern is conducive for a SE ridge to keep popping up and allowing storms to amplify and go to the NW. We'll likely have to wait until -NAO establishes itself in full to act as a suppressant on the storm track. Very well could be a historic pattern for ORD and MKE, like HM said. Unfortunately, the wealth may not be spread around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Loving the death of the GOA trough, which is something that most of the models have been hinting at in the extended. However, the spatial setup kind of concerns me. The E PAC ridge looks too far west for those of us in the eastern part of the subforum. It's like a pseudo +EPO, which is generally not a good teleconnector. The whole pattern is conducive for a SE ridge to keep popping up and allowing storms to amplify and go to the NW. We'll likely have to wait until -NAO establishes itself in full to act as a suppressant on the storm track. Very well could be a historic pattern for ORD and MKE, like HM said. Unfortunately, the wealth may not be spread around. Did you see the 00z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 0z GFS is weather porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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