trapperman Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 nice shot of cold hitting the northern plains on the end of the euro.. Might get sparty crying for his cigrits again. 00z Held serve. Quick torch followed by some nice cold. I sure hope it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Transient cool shots bud, it's over. We'll hope for the best in 2013-14. And you lol'ed me for calling end of October torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 And you lol'ed me for calling end of October torch. He is being sarcastic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 He is being sarcastic... Yeah, I'm getting to know him pretty well now. Didn't used to like the guy but he's growing on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Good to know I'm hated on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Good to know I'm hated on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 ECMWF ensembles show return of cross polar flow indeed. Though this time it looks more in the Rockies/Northern Plains with a strong southeast ridge. Maddening model runs. Euro will not let go of the quick torch up followed by big cold shot. GFS more zonal. Maddening. both models show the same end result, a big batch of cold air coming down from the northern plains, it's just that the Euro is ridiculous with the gyre/outbreak/warmup next Monday- Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Well, I guess the Quad Cities is buying the Euro solution... NEXT WEEK...MAJOR TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DUMPING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNS WELL AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT SIMILAR TO THIS PAST WEEKEND. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 NAEFS showing the cold shot directed further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Dang. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012101512!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 This one's for you, Tropical. Since you love to post these maps when they look torchy. We've gone from lots of red, to lots of orange, now to blue and puce, or whatever that color is. Wonder what the end of the month updates will bring??? Notice a trend this year? The darn thing is worthless. Torch Torch Torch... oops, maybe not so much... We've got cold air in Canada this year. The maps looks completely different than last year when everywhere to the arctic circle was a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 I hope it's just a blip, but the 6z GFS looks awful. I hope we see a first freeze before we experience any Indian Summer or another torch, but looks like that's not possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 I hope it's just a blip, but the 6z GFS looks awful. I hope we see a first freeze before we experience any Indian Summer or another torch, but looks like that's not possible. It's the 06 GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 I hope it's just a blip, but the 6z GFS looks awful. I hope we see a first freeze before we experience any Indian Summer or another torch, but looks like that's not possible. Chances are that it is just a blip. The GFS may be not handling the typhoons in the Pacific very well which is what is leading to the discrepencies in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 I'd rather have 12z/00z runs but I don't think off hour runs are as useless as some make them out to be. It's not like there is no data, and they can be useful to pick out trends, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 12z looks mild next week. If the typhoons recurve then the mild look will begin to cool off. With every warm up this month, they've been cut short and I suspect that with the next mild spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 12z looks mild next week. It the typhoons recurve then the mild look will begin to cool off. With every warm up this month, they've been cut short and I suspect that with the next mild spell. I hope you're right. It doesn't just look mild... we'll have to see if the Euro holds serve or trends warmer... Edit: On second glance, yeah, it's a few days torch, but it's not too bad and looks like classic dry Indian summer for the midwest. Get past hour 180 and things start looking better. Not jumping off a cliff like I was planning a few minutes ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 I don't know if I'd call the warm up a "pattern change" exactly. It doesn't look to stick around that long. A typical Indian Summer stretch. EURO advertizes this after the warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I think November is going to be cold and snowy. Going with -5F departures and 12 inches of snow for MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I think November is going to be cold and snowy. Going with -5F departures and 12 inches of snow for MKE. O_o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 I think November is going to be cold and snowy. Going with -5F departures and 12 inches of snow for MKE. I fainted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 I think Tropical may just be right Lock that in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The GOA vort is troubling. Lets hope this is just a blip on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Yes, it sucks. Hopefully just a quick transition and the PAC blocking returns soon enough. If we get into Nov with these issues the forums might flip instantly into freak out stage 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Weenie suicide time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 This model has been all over the place. It didn't look like this a week or so ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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