michsnowfreak Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 A 1977 beginning to winter would be HEAVENLY. But even if that WONDERFUL winter of 1977-78 were to be repeated, the storm/action hounds would be ready to hang themselves the 2nd half of winter. Winter storms stopped in this area of the country after the blizzard. Just the occasional light snowfall (assumably fluffy, moisture starved clippers). While winter sports enthusiasts and snowcover freaks would have an endless supply of snowpack to play in, those not into such things as snowcover who are looking to track any actual weather systems would be sitting, literally, high and dry the entire 2nd half of winter, the only thing coming being an astronomical heating bill Jokes aside, pattern itself still looks to be undergoing major improvement. Lots of talk of a gradient pattern possible. This region recently has done well in gradient patterns (see 2008-09) but its still nervewracking because itd he heartbreak to be on the wrong side of the gradient (esp if you are south of it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 MJO showing some signs of life finally. At least it's trying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 MJO showing some signs of life finally. At least it's trying... Depends on the source.. Honestly though it is not much and thus will probably have little effect. This is worth keeping a eye on though.. Very nice warming event. Pretty sure there will be more ups and downs before all is said and done as is usually the case when we are dealing with a bigger pattern change. I would not get too caught up in any storm threat till it is atleast inside of day 5 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 00z euro should excite most in this region. Talking pattern NOT storm threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 The fact that the 00z Euro is showing some favorable atmospheric conditions for a dynamic system in the 168 hour period is a good sign. The current projection obviously isn't favorable for most of us in particular, but the fact that it's there is worth tracking. Also, I seem to remember one of the biases of the Euro is to hold shortwaves back or dig them in too much, but I can't remember whether or not this applies to only shortwaves that cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 The 00z Euro does not "hold it back", in fact, it is much more progressive than the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 The fact that the 00z Euro is showing some favorable atmospheric conditions for a dynamic system in the 168 hour period is a good sign. The current projection obviously isn't favorable for most of us in particular, but the fact that it's there is worth tracking. Also, I seem to remember one of the biases of the Euro is to hold shortwaves back or dig them in too much, but I can't remember whether or not this applies to only shortwaves that cut off. I think one of the biases (unsure if it's still true) was to hold energy back in the southwestern US. That isn't really the case in this instance as it's progressive while the GFS holds the energy back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Not sure PNA positive is a good thing for anyone north Of the line from davenport IA to Chicago to Detroit if snow is your goal...much stronger negative correlation with snow/PNA to the north of that line...although at this point, without enough cold air in the forum, snow is a moot point If its not one thing.... its another. That's been the issue with getting a more traditionally cold pattern in place the last 2 years. We are going to replace the negative PNA with a positive one, but the lack of blocking by Greenland is killing us in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Not sure PNA positive is a good thing for anyone north Of the line from davenport IA to Chicago to Detroit if snow is your goal...much stronger negative correlation with snow/PNA to the north of that line...although at this point, without enough cold air in the forum, snow is a moot point A +PNA is good! It means there is a ridge under Alaska and no room for a vortex up there. Ridges off the West Coast drive storm into the Rockies and 4 Corners region and then they usually come towards the OV or GL's. The best gradient patterns can start with the PNA switching the postive. We need the AO to stay negative, which looks to do for awhile. A sharply negative NAO is no good though. That cause everything to shift to the East Coast. +PNA, -AO, and -NAO almost always leaves the Great Lakes high and dry outside of the LES regions. A NAO within +/- 0.5 would be ideal for snowstorms. Welcome to the forum btw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Not sure PNA positive is a good thing for anyone north Of the line from davenport IA to Chicago to Detroit if snow is your goal...much stronger negative correlation with snow/PNA to the north of that line...although at this point, without enough cold air in the forum, snow is a moot point I'm more of an LES fan... I just want cold. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I'm more of an LES fan... I just want cold. Jon For your snowmobiling LES chases, yes...but the funny thing....for us to get the most synoptic snow in SE MI, wed prefer being in a favorable position of a gradient pattern (which isnt good for LES). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 For your snowmobiling LES chases, yes...but the funny thing....for us to get the most synoptic snow in SE MI, wed prefer being in a favorable position of a gradient pattern (which isnt good for LES). There are several systems rolling through during the next 10 days, just depends on where the track sets up. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 thinking we really need a block.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 thinking we really need a block.... Seeing this suggests that more blocking is on the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I'll pass on -nao blocking unless it is east based. A west base -NAO does zero for the GL. Good for cold but not so for snow unless it is the rare 77-78 winter with a beastly blizzard. Further south in the OV is a different story. That is ME though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 But even if that WONDERFUL winter of 1977-78 were to be repeated, the storm/action hounds would be ready to hang themselves the 2nd half of winter. Not after a blizzard of that magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Not after a blizzard of that magnitude. I beg to differ! This is something like my 10th winter on these boards, complaining rules the roost for SOME. Look no further to 2010-11..some Chicago area folks complained that winter was nearly shutout after the historic blizzard while some Detroit folks complained that we MISSED an epic blizzard yet our snowstorms kept coming right through mid-March. Actually, don't get me wrong 1977-78 was an EXCELLENT winter in Detroit. As of 2012, it stands as the 6th coldest, 12th snowiest, and #1 whitest (most snowcover days) winter on record. But THE blizzard itself is especially interesting because only 8-10" of snow fell in the immediate Detroit area, but it seems everyone to our N, S, E, and W got much more. I have heard tales that 4 feet of snow fell with this storm here I dont think so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Talking to Gilbert from NIU now about the upcoming few weeks and rest of the winter...his thoughts "But, let me say this. Jon Davis showed how Sandy put so much latent heat and momentum into the jet stream, that it melted 1/5 of the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. But this week, a lot of that will come back in the U.S., and it already has in Canada. The amount of cold air in the Northern Hemisphere is something I haven't seen since 2000-2001. That's because Siberia and Asia/Europe's snow cover is big, and it hasn't been for over 10 years.And when you look at when this has happened...8 times in recorded history...we get slammed with cold, and, depending on the Polar trough location, a lot of snow.I saw the full output tis evening from the 2-3 week Euro while I was there. You would have simply wet your pants. The correlation is huge between Siberia snowcover and how cold we get. The 2-3 week Euro has big trough over the western U.S., ridging over the eastern U.S. In short, we get the living crap beat out of us, especially around Christmas and the last week of December." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Talking to Gilbert from NIU now about the upcoming few weeks and rest of the winter...his thoughts "But, let me say this. Jon Davis showed how Sandy put so much latent heat and momentum into the jet stream, that it melted 1/5 of the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. But this week, a lot of that will come back in the U.S., and it already has in Canada. The amount of cold air in the Northern Hemisphere is something I haven't seen since 2000-2001. That's because Siberia and Asia/Europe's snow cover is big, and it hasn't been for over 10 years.And when you look at when this has happened...8 times in recorded history...we get slammed with cold, and, depending on the Polar trough location, a lot of snow.I saw the full output tis evening from the 2-3 week Euro while I was there. You would have simply wet your pants. The correlation is huge between Siberia snowcover and how cold we get. The 2-3 week Euro has big trough over the western U.S., ridging over the eastern U.S. In short, we get the living crap beat out of us, especially around Christmas and the last week of December." Who was he referring to getting the living crap beat out of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Who was he referring to getting the living crap beat out of us? Probably the Western Great Lakes, or at least his general region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Probably the Western Great Lakes, or at least his general region. I bet he's referring to a western trough and a SE ridge. Some type of gradient pattern coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I'm thinking this month might be lost... At least through the 20th. Not a good start to this winter, Europe on the other hand will get a second straight A+ start the winter. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I'm thinking this month might be lost... At least through the 20th. Not a good start to this winter, Europe on the other hand will get a second straight A+ start the winter. Jon In 12 hrs you will post... I'm thinking this month might get interesting... At least through the 20th. decent start to this winter, Europe on the other hand will get a second straight A+ start the winter. Looks pretty decent to me. Maybe not huge storms but enough cold to give us snow depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I'm thinking this month might be lost... At least through the 20th. Not a good start to this winter, Europe on the other hand will get a second straight A+ start the winter. Jon Its December 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 APX mentions major LES outbreak for NWLM next week where I will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 APX mentions major LES outbreak for NWLM next week where I will be. I'm guessing the operational and ensembles are miles apart eh? Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstantWeatherMaps Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Sorry I've been away from the forum for a while... I released my winter forecast a week ago: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/wf_2012-2013.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I'm guessing the operational and ensembles are miles apart eh? Jon Of course they are. From everything Ive gathered, the general pattern looks favorable. Its very very very dangerous to look at only op runs. Europe was in a winterless rut for years, I dont mind if they see some winter...just NOT at our expense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Of course they are. From everything Ive gathered, the general pattern looks favorable. Its very very very dangerous to look at only op runs. Europe was in a winterless rut for years, I dont mind if they see some winter...just NOT at our expense. Some would say that it has flipped. With last year the corner stone and starting line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Funny how when the day 10 op Euro isn't a torch, no map gets posted. The reverse of course isn't true. Alas, both are silly typically. That all being said, both are not world's apart at day 10. Not perfect, but not bad generally. Nina-like look. Op is more aggressive with cold in western Canada, note the "circle" of colder than -24C 850 temps...but that's par for the course I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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