SpartyOn Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Ugh..... But.... The pacific might be turning the page which is a good thing. The 6z GFS and GFS ensembles didn't look all the bad either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 tonight's runs are dry dry dry. But also not that cold. Not torchy, but not going to cut it for much snow or even precip. The long range looks dry, but at least the next 12 days look mildly active, which is a step up from November's complete utter boredom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Ugh..... But.... The pacific might be turning the page which is a good thing. The 6z GFS and GFS ensembles didn't look all the bad either. Neither did the 0z EURO ensembles. Much more ridging over the E PAC than the OP model, along with a more prominent -NAO. Basically has a gradient pattern across our neck of the woods from D7-10 with most of us on the cold side of it. AO looks neutral to maybe weakly positive (I don't have the index numbers, just basing this on where the PV is), but it's still plenty cold enough for snow this far south. Just nothing brutally cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Neither did the 0z EURO ensembles. Much more ridging over the E PAC than the OP model, along with a more prominent -NAO. Basically has a gradient pattern across our neck of the woods from D7-10 with most of us on the cold side of it. AO looks neutral to maybe weakly positive (I don't have the index numbers, just basing this on where the PV is), but it's still plenty cold enough for snow this far south. Just nothing brutally cold. Sounds very 2007-08 esque to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Neither did the 0z EURO ensembles. Much more ridging over the E PAC than the OP model, along with a more prominent -NAO. Basically has a gradient pattern across our neck of the woods from D7-10 with most of us on the cold side of it. AO looks neutral to maybe weakly positive (I don't have the index numbers, just basing this on where the PV is), but it's still plenty cold enough for snow this far south. Just nothing brutally cold. If its not one thing.... its another. That's been the issue with getting a more traditionally cold pattern in place the last 2 years. We are going to replace the negative PNA with a positive one, but the lack of blocking by Greenland is killing us in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Sounds very 2007-08 esque to me We gotta erase that from our collective memories. Never going to happen again. I'll settle for a 2004-05. Did you realize that was the last winter we had a normal snowfall winter? Seven winters since, it's been a polemic. You're either crazy snowy or a snow desert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 If its not one thing.... its another. That's been the issue with getting a more traditionally cold pattern in place the last 2 years. We are going to replace the negative PNA with a positive one, but the lack of blocking by Greenland is killing us in the long range. No reason to complain. Go check out the H5 plots on the EURO ensembles beyond D7. They're available here at americanwx in the models section. Assuming perfection in a pattern is all but impossible, you can't do much better than that in terms of snowfall potential. Now, we just gotta get this stuff out of fantasy land. That's the next hurdle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 We gotta erase that from our collective memories. Never going to happen again. I'll settle for a 2004-05. Did you realize that was the last winter we had a normal snowfall winter? Seven winters since, it's been a polemic. You're either crazy snowy or a snow desert. I know. I still have vivid memories of that historic winter. I would gladly take a 2004-05 winter. Jan 2004 was epic with bitter cold and then a crazy snowstorm that gave me 20" from lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Neither did the 0z EURO ensembles. Much more ridging over the E PAC than the OP model, along with a more prominent -NAO. Basically has a gradient pattern across our neck of the woods from D7-10 with most of us on the cold side of it. AO looks neutral to maybe weakly positive (I don't have the index numbers, just basing this on where the PV is), but it's still plenty cold enough for snow this far south. Just nothing brutally cold. Very 2007-2008 like. Wasnt brutal cold but enough to make for some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 I know. I still have vivid memories of that historic winter. I would gladly take a 2004-05 winter. Jan 2004 was epic with bitter cold and then a crazy snowstorm that gave me 20" from lake effect. Jan 2004 was in the winter of 2003-04, which overall was kind of crap, but yeah, that January storm was something. Only 13" here as the persistent banding just missed me to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 The 12z GFS was the second run in a row which had a warmer solution in the medium to long range. Sounds awfully familiar? Are the forecasts for cold by JB and DT (wxrisk) going to bust yet again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Jan 2004 was in the winter of 2003-04, which overall was kind of crap, but yeah, that January storm was something. Only 13" here as the persistent banding just missed me to the south. Ok true it was 2003-04 lol whatever I was thinking about something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Looking back a bit this fall these euro weeklies haven't been the best. If threre was a crystal ball to see the weather future, out of the contenders these seem to be performing very well as well as the euro. Personally the GFS is a dream which never comes true as of late.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 The 12z GFS was the second run in a row which had a warmer solution in the medium to long range. Sounds awfully familiar? Are the forecasts for cold by JB and DT (wxrisk) going to bust yet again? My advice to you is don't look at every operational run of the GFS or ECWMF. They have no idea of whats going to happen in the long range. Ensembles are the way to go and IMO they look very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 who took over blizz's computer IC the New England forum pounding that in to your skull has hit home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 who took over blizz's computer IC the New England forum pounding that in to your skull has hit home. LOL I told them from now on I would be a better poster. They were really starting to get frustrated with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 My advice to you is don't look at every operational run of the GFS or ECWMF. They have no idea of whats going to happen in the long range. Ensembles are the way to go and IMO they look very good. From one Canadian blizzard to another, thank you for the sound advice! What are the ensembles saying for Sunday 9th? I have travel plans. Should I be concerned? (sorry moderators!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 My advice to you is don't look at every operational run of the GFS or ECWMF. They have no idea of whats going to happen in the long range. Ensembles are the way to go and IMO they look very good. Ensembles do look good... Its not a full blown trough, but its a general sag of cold over the northern 1/3rd of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 The 12z GFS was the second run in a row which had a warmer solution in the medium to long range. Sounds awfully familiar? Are the forecasts for cold by JB and DT (wxrisk) going to bust yet again? Assuming the features in the Atlantic are modeled correctly by the GFS, I would expect the D6-8 storm to come in further south. There's ridging over Greenland and a pseudo-50/50 low over the Atlantic Provinces. Right now, it looks like it's trying to drive the low right into the blocking. HM in the New England thread mentioned this as well. But that blocking is key, because the placement of the main longwave trough is not good for us otherwise. No blocking, just rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 The extreme cold being advertised by the models Fri and Sat was clearly overblown. Id much rather have a gradient pattern or normal spread anyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 The 12z Euro def took a step towards the GFS in the longer range. Gone is the big trough in the east, instead it's a more zonal flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Hmmmm. Euro wasnt exactly what i expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Hmmmm. Euro wasnt exactly what i expected. Looked pretty good to me. The D9 system is actually starting to get my interest but it is D9 so take it FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 The 12z Euro def took a step towards the GFS in the longer range. Gone is the big trough in the east, instead it's a more zonal flow. I'll have to hop on my PC to get a better look, but I don't remember it featuring much of a trough. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Euro very close to a big one but again...all action continues to lurk on the periphery of fantasy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 This is like needing sex. I am afraid many more people will follow the 168-240hr 18z GFS because of this starvation than usual. Luckily, I will not be one of them. We needed a 1977 type beginning to calm the nerves. Confidence is at a all time low. Nobody believes anymore always expecting the worst. /thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 /thread A sex thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 I'll have to hop on my PC to get a better look, but I don't remember it featuring much of a trough. Jon It was probably several days ago, all the runs kind of merge together in my head since I look at all of them, but I do remember there being an eastern trough and I was on the western edge which is never good, with the west heating up again. (at least on the 850 MB map) due to the persistent low in the GOA. This run did not have that look because it appears the ridging off the W coast is farther N. and there's no low in the GOA. That results in zonal flow in that area dipping down to a zonal looking trough over much of the US (not sharp). It'll change in 12 hours anyway, but it looks better, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 This is like needing sex. I am afraid many more people will follow the 168-240hr 18z GFS because of this starvation than usual. Luckily, I will not be one of them. We needed a 1977 type beginning to calm the nerves. Confidence is at a all time low. Nobody believes anymore always expecting the worst. sure you wont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 This is like needing sex. I am afraid many more people will follow the 168-240hr 18z GFS because of this starvation than usual. Luckily, I will not be one of them. We needed a 1977 type beginning to calm the nerves. Confidence is at a all time low. Nobody believes anymore always expecting the worst. Substitute fantasy GFS maps and depicted snow with Mary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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