wisconsinwx Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 the prospects have always been there...we haven't been able to get them to materialize inside day 7. The system by D6-7 has little agreement from run to run and amongst models but our chances for cold after it look better than they have been all year but that's not saying much. Most of the GFS ensembles are showing a significant storm in the region next weekend or early the following week but as you said, we can never get these fantasy storms inside 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 the prospects have always been there...we haven't been able to get them to materialize inside day 7. The system by D6-7 has little agreement from run to run and amongst models but our chances for cold after it look better than they have been all year but that's not saying much. I'd argue that we really haven't had much fantasy action this entire fall, I mean there has been how many storm threads even for prospect events a week out. Maybe a couple? Either way I think there are several things that would lean more toward these potentials having a better chance of being realized. One being the well advertized pattern shift, the other being that the split flow we have been in for a while now looks to change and the Pacific Jet looks to really strengthen in the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 First look at January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 First look at January. Cool story bro, doubt it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Cool story bro, doubt it verifies. Honestly, it doesn't even look that bad to me. Highest anomalies in the Plains (+PNA) and up towards Greenland/Labrador (-NAO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Here's my interpretation of the jet stream Not so great for the W Lakes but not half bad here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 not a big fan of too much +pna... mostly useless here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 not a big fan of too much +pna... mostly useless here. I'd agree with that. +PNA was one of the main culprits in 2002-03. Snow heaven here and in MI/OH. Death in IL/WI/IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Looking back a bit this fall these euro weeklies haven't been the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 12z GFS came close to a big system during the day 8/9 period but the trof could never go neutral tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 12z GFS came close to a big system during the day 8/9 period but the trof could never go neutral tilt. I think we're talking about the same storm (looks more D7 to me) but the GEFS are pretty bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 I think we're talking about the same storm (looks more D7 to me) but the GEFS are pretty bullish. the one I'm talking about doesn't dive into the pac NW until D7. The 0z run didn't have it but the last two have in some form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 the one I'm talking about doesn't dive into the pac NW until D7. The 0z run didn't have it but the last two have in some form. Ok, I see it. I was referring to this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Why do people even look at the CFS? It's a good scientific effort but has the weather forecasting capabilities of a groundhog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 1, 2012 Author Share Posted December 1, 2012 I think November is going to be cold and snowy. Going with -5F departures and 12 inches of snow for MKE. MKE for November: Temperature Average: 39° Departure from Normal: -0.0° Snow Total: T Thanks for playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Why do people even look at the CFS? It's a good scientific effort but has the weather forecasting capabilities of a groundhog. To troll.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 First look at January. Weather Forum RulesNo politics/religious discussion No foul language No personal attacks/OT arguing Try to stay on topic Attack the idea, not the poster Spell out your forecast/thinking/opposing viewpoint clearly If you post a map, explain it Keep banter to a minimum during Storm Mode* (see below) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 I am fearing that this winter is going to be like last, where we are going to have to struggle to get anything to materialize. I hope not, but, I am looking at the guidance, and hoping it gets cold around here at least. Wishing for a snow storm is kind of moot at the moment, I just want some cold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 I am fearing that this winter is going to be like last, where we are going to have to struggle to get anything to materialize. I hope not, but, I am looking at the guidance, and hoping it gets cold around here at least. Wishing for a snow storm is kind of moot at the moment, I just want some cold.... This year is nothing like last year in terms of cold air. Nothing. November alone was some 6-8F colder than last year but thats not the main story. There is so much more cold air and deeper, more extensive snowcover upstream than last year its not funny. This leads to very high confidence in a much colder winter than last year. The worries in my eyes will be where the storms track, how plentiful they will be, and how much moisture clippers will have to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 This year is nothing like last year in terms of cold air. Nothing. November alone was some 6-8F colder than last year but thats not the main story. There is so much more cold air and deeper, more extensive snowcover upstream than last year its not funny. This leads to very high confidence in a much colder winter than last year. The worries in my eyes will be where the storms track, how plentiful they will be, and how much moisture clippers will have to work with. Yeah I agree. I don't think cold air will be much of a problem. It will be moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Bowme, Accuweather has Milwaukee down for over 2 inches of snow on Dec. 24th. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Why do people even look at the CFS? It's a good scientific effort but has the weather forecasting capabilities of a groundhog. To troll and nothing else, and clearly they aren't following the rules of the forum either as dmc pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Snowfall last Dec. 1st compared to now. As far as depth, snow cover of Canada is deeper this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 2, 2012 Author Share Posted December 2, 2012 It looks better having snow in northern MI, WI, and MN. Kind of disconcerting about the lack of snow in the Rockies though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 American models look a lot better, but the Euro still likes to put a big vortex in the vicinity of AK 10 days out. We'll see... Hopefully, beyond D10, the low heights will retrograde toward the Aleutians creating a nice PNA ridge as opposed to the vortex migrating NW creating an EPO trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Snowfall last Dec. 1st compared to now. As far as depth, snow cover of Canada is deeper this year. Snowcover is MUCH deeper in Canada this year. And note that the icecover is further south. And yes, these are excellent signs for the coming winter. And lol, yes that was a little stripe of light snowcover here last December 1st . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 It looks better having snow in northern MI, WI, and MN. Kind of disconcerting about the lack of snow in the Rockies though. I actually kind of look at that like it's a good thing in a way. It's pretty unusual to have such low snow coverage out there this late in the season. You know ol' ma nature is gonna compensate before long and slam the other shoe down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Dump a trough into the Rockies and they'll turn white quickly! That would set up the subforum with storms riding out of the southwest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 tonight's runs are dry dry dry. But also not that cold. Not torchy, but not going to cut it for much snow or even precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 long term trends ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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