A-L-E-K Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 ensemble agreement on the latest fantasy storm is non-existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Great analysis as always! That's about what I'm thinking as well. The dateline forcing is a major key player to watch for. Thanks. Unfortunetely, the dateline forcing hasn't really come through yet which is why we are seeing the potential window for wintry weather gettng pushed farther back and becoming a bit less certain...and with the Pacific pattern forcing a zonal flow across much of the CONUS there haven't been any storms to help coax a -NAO either, which isn't helping. Sorry I'm gonna be an a** here, but basing the pattern or "real world" weather off day 10+ OP runs is just silly. This practice needs to stop. Again, there is statistical proof that the verification scores get less the farther out in time we go. I may not know much, but if we want to try to gather what may happen in the extended...it's a much better idea of looking at ensembles as a "quick and dirty" way of doing so. That all being said, kudos to OHweather for giving some detailed thoughts. Thanks. The op GFS has even been an outlier amongst its ensembles at times over the past couple of days with its handling of the Pacific near and post truncation. ensemble agreement on the latest fantasy storm is non-existent. The ensembles have a good amount of cold air and negative height anomalies centered over the western US...with what will likely be a neutral NAO... and this argues for some kind of potential cutter in the second week of the month so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Not sure if anyone here gets Weatherbell, but apparently Bastardi and D'Aleo are calling for the cold to move in around the 10-15th of the month, with Bastardi opining that it will hold through much of January and February. Their analogs include 2003-2004, 1962-63 and 1968-69. Not holding my breath after their forecast last year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 April! Let's keep our GOA friend there again all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 April! Let's keep our GOA friend there again all winter. No CFS weeks 3 and 4 update from you today? Tsk, tsk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 No CFS weeks 3 and 4 update from you today? Tsk, tsk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 We will see what happens after the 2 Hulk Hogan's come down the Pacific. At least some normalization has to be expected. I love when people incorporate the greatest 80s hero into weather. Nice touch dude. ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 No CFS weeks 3 and 4 update from you today? Tsk, tsk. Seriously though, just reading from some of the mets (which I dont understand half of the technical talk they are saying)....bottom line....there is a lot of cold spilling into Canada. Snowpack is building to the north and is well above what it was last year. I dont know if the pattern change is going to be delayed or pushed back or right on schedule...but this is the complete opposite of 2011-12. Will winter hit hard after mid-Dec? Will this be a 1990s-esque winter with a blech December and winter makes a grand (but brief) entrance in January? Whatever the case...at some point winter is going to set up shop and stay for a lot longer than the 1-2 brief days at a time like last year.Once we can get to that point, then our worry will be where will the snow fall, not if it will be cold enough to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Feeling pretty good about the post Dec 10th period. We have a lot more cold air/snowpack building over Canada compared to last season. Even the border region of the upper MW/Plains are snow covered and cold right now. Also, some fantasy systems continue to show up on the long range op GFS and even some of the ensembles. Last December fantasy systems (even weak ones) almost never showed up beyond 200hrs. Not very scientific, but I'm taking it as a good sign. The GOA low will probably be fairly pesky at times this winter, but I don't think it will dominate nearly as much as it did last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 With the "cool" Sept-Nov. We had talks that 2012 wasn't going to blow off the doors on the yearly temps. Currently at 63.1F with 60.1F as the record it looks nearly certain that 61.5F or so will be the final tally. the top 6 will now consist of 2012, 1921, 1991, 1990, 2011, 1998, 1938, 1954, 2006, 1931. A lot of folks around here are itching for some deeper blue to show up the next 3 months. We really need a -4 to -7F January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Yeah Cyclone - Not bad at all! Hudson Bay freezing over now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Yeah Cyclone - Not bad at all! Hudson Bay freezing over now. Yep. Probably lose some of the southern edge of that snowpack over the next 8-10 days, but the majority will remain. Will be poised to rapidly expand southward in the middle of the month as the pattern changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Yeah Cyclone - Not bad at all! Hudson Bay freezing over now. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/352_100.gif Not just snow cover but some decent depth as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 You guys tonight are derailing the thread more than Tropical. I realize it's looking pretty dull but this is about the long range...get back on topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Now for a more serious discussion. I am getting more and more concerned about this surface to 700mb ridge that continues to sit over the far eastern Pacific just southwest of HI all the way to west coast of the USA, and sometimes protruding as far east as CO. Something has to break this, until that happens the vortex we are seeing along the NW coast of the USA and to some degree in the GOA will not be able to drop south, that will essentially keep the northern tier of the US in a more zonal flow with the possibility of some quick moving cold snaps. It looks to me that the ski resorts in the CO area will be set up to get a big hurt this year. This will have a very large effect on the downstream area effecting this sub forum. I still think ARX will get more snow than MSP because I think it will have one major snowfall. For MSP I was going for 44". I started thinking in Oct that we would see one event in Nov that would produce a 6" event at MSP, with two more in Dec, putting us near normal for the season. But the last few days of Oct convinced me that we would not see a major accumulating snowfall in Nov, but one or two in Dec of around 6". So therefore my winter forecast issued late in OCT called for 38" But now it looks like the two 6" snowfall in December will not happen, so I am seriously thinking of lowering my seasonal snowfall totals to around 25-28." At MSP two straight winters of less the 30......" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 You guys tonight are derailing the thread more than Tropical. I realize it's looking pretty dull but this is about the long range...get back on topic. I think I just did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I think we're starting to get a good idea of what's going to go down into the med-long range...look for a brief but possibly intense trough into the central/eastern states with an accompanying large storm...I think we can expect the cold to be short lived and expect another ridge to push east soon after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Feeling pretty good about the post Dec 10th period. We have a lot more cold air/snowpack building over Canada compared to last season. Even the border region of the upper MW/Plains are snow covered and cold right now. Also, some fantasy systems continue to show up on the long range op GFS and even some of the ensembles. Last December fantasy systems (even weak ones) almost never showed up beyond 200hrs. Not very scientific, but I'm taking it as a good sign. The GOA low will probably be fairly pesky at times this winter, but I don't think it will dominate nearly as much as it did last season. Very good and reasonable post! And those positive signs are JUST as "scientific" as all the negative posts worrying about dry conditions meaning low winter snowfall, or fearing the goa low will be like last year, etc. There is never a guarentee with storm tracks, or whether clippers will be moisture laden or moisture-starved, etc...but it is a fact that the more cold air and especially the more expansive/deeper snowpack is upstream leads to colder winters in the northern half of the U.S. Nothing is ever a guarentee but it certainly puts odds in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Although not great agreement yet, the GFS appears to be trending towards the Euro with a slower breakdown of the GOA low in the mid range. However, both models show colder air diving into the Rockies and northern Plains during the second week of the month with weak eastern US ridging, so I definitely am looking for a potential cutter around the 10th still, give or take, with a blast of cold behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I think we're starting to get a good idea of what's going to go down into the med-long range...look for a brief but possibly intense trough into the central/eastern states with an accompanying large storm...I think we can expect the cold to be short lived and expect another ridge to push east soon after. Gonna need the pattern to switch up again pretty quick after that for a white chirstmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 With the "cool" Sept-Nov. We had talks that 2012 wasn't going to blow off the doors on the yearly temps. Currently at 63.1F with 60.1F as the record it looks nearly certain that 61.5F or so will be the final tally. the top 6 will now consist of 2012, 1921, 1991, 1990, 2011, 1998, 1938, 1954, 2006, 1931. A lot of folks around here are itching for some deeper blue to show up the next 3 months. We really need a -4 to -7F January. http://www.instantwe...f_2012-2013.php He specifically told me last year that he only uses three shades of blue (or red) at most... his January map has some purple (a 4th shade) inside the blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 http://www.instantwe...f_2012-2013.php He specifically told me last year that he only uses three shades of blue (or red) at most... his January map has some purple (a 4th shade) inside the blue. Well, tell him his precip map has the wrong year as it's not 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 18z GFS ensembles show the vortex dislodging late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 18z GFS ensembles show the vortex dislodging late next week. 00z looked good too. And all of a sudden its quiet in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 I'm liking the next Friday cold surge for more ways than one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 00z looked good too. And all of a sudden its quiet in this thread The GFS took down a couple grams of blow half way through it's run. Roughly around 192 Hours and went into a "white snow flaked" fantasy rage. Where self strengthening PV's show up out of no-where and attracted vort's to consume for fuel and continue to sit and grow while pushing cold air South before a Super Storm forms on the GOM then takes an inland track over the APPS, torching the East Coast and bringing down the mother load. I am no expert and I can't say if the cold will materialize or not but it's not happening like that. So it's a huge waste of time to talk about it. Hence the quite part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 The Euro looks nice by day 10. But it might break down the PAC pattern to fast but would be nice for a long wave troughy/zonal like pattern for a system march into our region, with a hint of blocking setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 6z gfs fantasy land trolling like tropical, only cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 6z gfs fantasy land trolling like tropical, only cold. There are a few storms that cut through the Lakes, too early to worry about details other than there is at least a couple of prospects out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 the prospects have always been there...we haven't been able to get them to materialize inside day 7. The system by D6-7 has little agreement from run to run and amongst models but our chances for cold after it look better than they have been all year but that's not saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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