Chicago WX Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 B+ fantasy storm on the 12z GFS Seems like even fantasy land sucked last winter. So we got that going for ourselves this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Seems like even fantasy land sucked last winter. So we got that going for ourselves this winter. lol, so many runs clicking through 300+ hours with nothing. Anyways, the majority of the 12z ensembles develope a decent storm in this time frame, with the usual but not outrageous variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Needs a slight shift south... That would be about as likely as picking the winning numbers for powerball tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Looking better. Ridge south of Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Looking better. Ridge south of Alaska. has a potentially transient look but we're taking baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Just wait until the core of the neg anomalies move to around Chicago... Just wait boys..its coming. Christmas in Milwaukee will feature single digit high temps and lows of -14F at the airport... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 That would be about as likely as picking the winning numbers for powerball tonight! Snow-cations for everyone after I win the 550 million tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Snow-cations for everyone after I win the 550 million tonight. Alright, Good deal. Our choice pick?! --- @ DDL - Some palm freezing cold for Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I wonder if this December will be anything like 1951. Everyone should check out their local data for December 1951. Very extreme going from major torch the first week, then more seasonable 2nd week, to heavy snow and bitter cold from mid-month to Christmas. Although I dont think itd be fair to assume eithet the torch or snow would be as extreme this time But anythings possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I think we have a good shot at seeing some very cold air. Saukville thinks constant torch all winter...but i know better then that. Obviously, I'm a lot colder in this area then most of you other dudes..but I think even the tropical zone of Saukville will see some palm punishing cold... Need snow cover first...must get snow...even a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I wonder if this December will be anything like 1951. Everyone should check out their local data for December 1951. Very extreme going from major torch the first week, then more seasonable 2nd week, to heavy snow and bitter cold from mid-month to Christmas. Although I dont think itd be fair to assume eithet the torch or snow would be as extreme this time But anythings possible. Looks like some hybrid Canadian/Pacific air after the 4th, then a dump of Arctic air. I don't think this torch will be all next week. Sunday and Monday should be the worst of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I can't post it now but if you plot upper level tropospheric height anomalies for the last 2 to 4 weeks for the NH and compare to 2011, it is basically opposite each other. This year the mid-winter will actually deliver this time to North America and not leave us out while the rest of the world goes into the freezer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Me like what I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Me like what I see Me too. After last winter, I will take my chances with cold and hope for clippers, etc....doesnt mean you cant get a big storm to hit this far north, because you can and will...its just you will also have to deal with some suppression. i want a winter full of WHITE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I wonder if this December will be anything like 1951. Everyone should check out their local data for December 1951. Very extreme going from major torch the first week, then more seasonable 2nd week, to heavy snow and bitter cold from mid-month to Christmas. Although I dont think itd be fair to assume eithet the torch or snow would be as extreme this time But anythings possible. I like what I see snowfreak. Toronto December 1951: http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=5097&dlyRange=1937-11-01|2012-11-27&Year=1951&Month=11&Day=01#Year=1951&Month=12 http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=XX&StationID=4337&Year=2011&Month=12&Day=1#Year=1951&Month=12 Ottawa December 1951: AS you said, torch the first week, then a snowblitz. If we had a December like this, I'd think I'd died and gone to Heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I like what I see snowfreak. Toronto December 1951: http://www.climate.w...r=1951&Month=12 http://www.climate.w...r=1951&Month=12 Ottawa December 1951: AS you said, torch the first week, then a snowblitz. If we had a December like this, I'd think I'd died and gone to Heaven. And whats more, it occurred during what is BY FAR Detroits (and the region in general) worst period of record, snow-wise (and boy did we all pay in 1952-53). With but a few exceptions, the 1930s-1950s flat out sucked for snowfall in the Great Lakes. Residents were probably shocked as more snow fell at Detroit from Dec 14-25, 1951 than they experienced during the ENTIRE snow seasons of 1936-37, 1937-38, 1943-44, 1945-46, 1948-49, and 1952-53. At the time, the 24.0" that fell at Detroit in Dec 1951 was the snowiest month since 27.4" fell in Dec 1929 and we would not see another month equal that until 34.9" fell in Dec 1974. And what must have been a memorable winter month started with a massive torch. Dec 1951 Detroit climate data http://www1.ncdc.noa...28D592992A8.pdf Dec 1951 Grand Rapids climate data http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-CCE9BAD4-44BD-4E55-B6FA-C74738676B97.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Seems like even fantasy land sucked last winter. So we got that going for ourselves this winter. Well, I was trying desperately to find any significant cold air in the models. I had to go past day 10, but the 384 hour GFS (multiple runs today) look pretty fun with -30F arctic motherlode temps in Saskatchewan, i.e. the whole province of Saskatchewan. It could be a signal for a pattern change around December 13th or 14th I suppose. Even if the GFS is off with some of the longwave features, the pattern change might be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 11/28 short-mid range forecast thoughts A highly unfavorable Pacific pattern is currently unfolding…with a large vortex off the west coast, pinned in place by Aleutian ridging, is going to flood much of the CONUS with Pacific air this weekend into next week. However, extensive blocking is occurring in the arctic and very cold air is continuing to dump into northwestern Canada. For now, this air will stay bottled up, this may change, however. The MJO has failed to become as active as previously thought…and it is now far from a certainty that the MJO will get very far out of the circle of death and impact the pattern of the Pacific. The ECM suite, on the right, shows the MJO remaining predominantly in the “COD” over the next two weeks. Given the ECM suite has recently been leading the way and showing a weaker MJO in the late November-early December timeframe, I am going to give it the nod and lean towards relatively non-impactful convection in the tropical Pacific through at least mid-December. This means we need to rely on other forces to change the Pacific pattern as we head into December if we want sustained cold across the region. Both the GFS and ECM suites show the large vortex over NE Asia that has been causing the Aleutian ridging and fairly persistent troughing near the west coast beginning to retrograde and weaken as soon as this weekend…however, the models show energy persistently being dumped into the vortex, causing this process to be slow. By day 8-10, the GFS and Euro show differences in handling of the Pacific…with the GFS showing a very strong closed ridge almost to the North Pole extending from the Bering Strait…while the Euro is much less amplified with the ridging. The GFS also significantly weakens the troughing off the west coast and south of Alaska, while the Euro keeps the vortex fairly stable. This allows the GFS to pop a weak +PNA by late next week into next weekend, which would allow much more significant cold air just north of the Canadian border to be brought south and east. The Euro also showed a significant cold shot in the day 8 timeframe in today’s 12z run, however, given it still shows a strong Pacific jet and its ensembles are less enthused, it is uncertain how reliable the Euro’s solution is. A GFS type outcome would certainly be much more conducive for cold and snow in our region of the county. The differences appear to be in the handling of potential convection in the western tropical Pacific next week…shown above is the 18z GFS valid 0z 12/6…note the positive 250mb height anomalies north of the equator near and west of the dateline…an examination of precipitation maps for this time frame indicates this is due to latent heat released by convection near the equator. These positive height anomalies tighten the gradient associated with the upper level jet in the western Pacific, and cause the jet to break near the dateline, with divergence in the left exit portion of the jet favoring surface cyclones near the Longitude of the Aleutians…this pumps up higher heights over the Gulf of Alaska and blasts away the vortex there fairly efficiently. The Euro has other ideas, and does not show as much MJO enhancement to the upper level jet in the central/western Pacific: The jet streaks are oriented completely differently on the two models…with the GFS orientation being more favorable for storms moving towards the Aleutians and pumping up heights to their east…while the ECM is as favorable for this. So, it would appear that whether or not we can get some consistent convection near the dateline next week will determine…in tandem with how quickly the NE Asian vortex retrogrades…will determine if the PNA will try to go positive in the first portion of December. Given the current MJO pulse is not coming on as aggressively as previously expected…as I said earlier I will favor the Euro solution with a slower pattern change…however, the GLAAM is making strides back towards phases 5/6…which tend to be correlated with convection near the dateline…if the GLAAM makes another orbit through phases 5-6-7 over the next week or so it may favor the GFS solution. Either way…regardless of MJO help or not…by day 10, the Euro and GFS suites are in pretty good agreement in continuing to shift the NE Asian vortex southwest, forcing ridging near the Aleutians to continue to retrograde as well. This would allow the trough near the western US coast to weaken, and potentially favor a PNA ridge at some point. Through the end of the run, the GFS ensembles continue to retrograde northern Pacific ridging, and allow ridging to pop just off the western US coast, which does allow the cold building in Canada to come south into the western half of US. Given general agreement on this retrograde scenario with the North Pacific ridging starting next week, I feel pretty good about this happening, although I do not agree with the solutions the OP GFS has been putting out, as in it’s doing things too fast. So given this, the direction I’m leaning with this is: -A piece of energy breaks off the NE Pacific vortex somewhere around Sunday and moves across the northern tier of the US and brings a quick shot of cold air…potentially some snow on the back side and lake effect for a brief period Wednesday-Thursday…however, the pattern will remain Pacific dominated and the cold shot will likely be parting. This likely won’t be a significant storm. -Aleutian ridging slowly continues to retrograde for the next two weeks, with the pattern gradually becoming more conducive for lower heights near the Aleutians and higher heights near the west coast of the US. -As this occurs, cold will continue dumping into NW Canada with cold likely coming down the east side of the Canadian Rockies. As the flow over the NW US slowly shifts from west off the Pacific to more NW, it will allow cold to slowly move farther down the eastern side of the mountains into the northern US. -This may culminate in some kind of a cutter as the trough continues to deepen over the western US…given the GFS and Euro ensembles…a potential timeframe for this may be December 10-12…although this will remain uncertain until the Pacific evolution becomes clearer. -After this one of two things will happen…the cutter will pull down some very cold air on the backside and perhaps aid in lowering the NAO…or, the Pacific will not be favorable enough, or the Polar Vortex will not be located far enough east, and the cold shots will continue to be parting. This all and all points to near normal to potentially below normal temps beginning the second week of December in the central US…however, as has been the case, how long this lasts is still in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Just a quick look and the 00z GFS looks terrible for the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 11/28 short-mid range forecast thoughts Through the end of the run, the GFS ensembles continue to retrograde northern Pacific ridging, and allow ridging to pop just off the western US coast, which does allow the cold building in Canada to come south into the western half of US. Given general agreement on this retrograde scenario with the North Pacific ridging starting next week, I feel pretty good about this happening, although I do not agree with the solutions the OP GFS has been putting out, as in it’s doing things too fast. So given this, the direction I’m leaning with this is: -A piece of energy breaks off the NE Pacific vortex somewhere around Sunday and moves across the northern tier of the US and brings a quick shot of cold air…potentially some snow on the back side and lake effect for a brief period Wednesday-Thursday…however, the pattern will remain Pacific dominated and the cold shot will likely be parting. This likely won’t be a significant storm. -Aleutian ridging slowly continues to retrograde for the next two weeks, with the pattern gradually becoming more conducive for lower heights near the Aleutians and higher heights near the west coast of the US. -As this occurs, cold will continue dumping into NW Canada with cold likely coming down the east side of the Canadian Rockies. As the flow over the NW US slowly shifts from west off the Pacific to more NW, it will allow cold to slowly move farther down the eastern side of the mountains into the northern US. -This may culminate in some kind of a cutter as the trough continues to deepen over the western US…given the GFS and Euro ensembles…a potential timeframe for this may be December 10-12…although this will remain uncertain until the Pacific evolution becomes clearer. -After this one of two things will happen…the cutter will pull down some very cold air on the backside and perhaps aid in lowering the NAO…or, the Pacific will not be favorable enough, or the Polar Vortex will not be located far enough east, and the cold shots will continue to be parting. This all and all points to near normal to potentially below normal temps beginning the second week of December in the central US…however, as has been the case, how long this lasts is still in question. Great analysis as always! That's about what I'm thinking as well. The dateline forcing is a major key player to watch for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 The 00z Euro is much better for some in the sub forum. A decent cold shot. The trough though is still there and wouldn't give us a a permanent pattern but some would get snow from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 The 00z Euro is much better for some in the sub forum. A decent cold shot. The trough though is still there and wouldn't give us a a permanent pattern but some would get snow from this. Yup. Looks transient. Until: A) The GOA trough retrogrades an sets up a -EPO OR B. NAO goes in the tank there's little hope as far as I can tell. You can slowly start to see the fantasy land GFS starting to match some of those index charts Friv posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Sorry I'm gonna be an a** here, but basing the pattern or "real world" weather off day 10+ OP runs is just silly. This practice needs to stop. Again, there is statistical proof that the verification scores get less the farther out in time we go. I may not know much, but if we want to try to gather what may happen in the extended...it's a much better idea of looking at ensembles as a "quick and dirty" way of doing so. That all being said, kudos to OHweather for giving some detailed thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Yup. Looks transient. Until: A) The GOA trough retrogrades an sets up a -EPO OR B. NAO goes in the tank there's little hope as far as I can tell. You can slowly start to see the fantasy land GFS starting to match some of those index charts Friv posted. With the cold comes the dry air/suppression... so yeah many are wishing for that cold air, however forgot that it can cause a suppressive pattern and we may be very cold but dry! 9So, I'd rather take a mild pattern over suppression anytime). Dry/Cold weather makes me sick. I just hope we don't get into a pattern like that, which is not out of the realm possibility. Back to top Quote MultiQuote Edit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 ensemble agreement breaks down rapidly after the second warmup around 12/7...i think it's safe to say most of this subforum outside lake belts is in clear as far as snows go until at least then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 MSP/La Crosse gets destroyed on the lastest 12z GFS not that it really means anything but its encouraging to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 MSP/La Crosse gets destroyed on the lastest 12z GFS not that it really means anything but its encouraging to say the least. Nice. If the NAO is more negative that could come across and affect more members here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Nice. If the NAO is more negative that could come across and affect more members here. Rooting hard them to get crushed! This is exactly what we need. Building a good snow pack to our NW will aid in cold air intrusions and give them staying power. Go MSP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.