Stebo Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Damn it, should have the read the last page. Ignore my last post. Well, except for the part about the trolls and debbies. Heh, I did make it sound like they didn't seem important in my post, which is clearly not what i meant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 It's actually rare, or at least, not common that a major event affects the whole midwest and northeast at one time. I can't recall the last time this has happened. GHD Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 And let me say this, just so everyone doesn't think I'm a complete a**hole...but when the Lakes/OV forum gets into "storm mode", whether it be severe or snow, there's a lot of knowledgable people here that do a great job. I really believe that. Long range range forecasting...not so much. But that's not everyone's cup of tea...which is fine. And Stebo, I was trying to single you out quoting your post. Or JoMo or anyone in particular. All is well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 GHD Blizzard. Add the 2007 V Day Blizzard, Dec 15-16 2007, etc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 It's actually rare, or at least, not common that a major event affects the whole midwest and northeast at one time. I can't recall the last time this has happened. It's true very rare, but first one that comes to mind is PDII. I believe during it's evolution it brought heavy snow from the midwest, thru the OV into the MA and NE. Quite honestly it is much more likely in Ohio, to be affected by the same storm as Boston vs. Minneapolis. The only snow we would ever share with MN would be snow from a clipper or frontal passage. Whereas we have often been hit with significant snows from strong noreasters back into Ohio. I agree though, they have some kickass mets in the NE forums that can shed interesting light on the overall pattern. (not at all meaning to dis our kickass mets in this forum).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 And let me say this, just so everyone doesn't think I'm a complete a**hole...but when the Lakes/OV forum gets into "storm mode", whether it be severe or snow, there's a lot of knowledgable people here that do a great job. I really believe that. Long range range forecasting...not so much. But that's not everyone's cup of tea...which is fine. And Stebo, I was trying to single you out quoting your post. All is well. We all have been typing before we think today lol. Great point. I know climatology like the back of my hand...but dont know the FIRST thing about longrange forecasting, thats why I read those NE mets thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 You can throw the clipper on steroids of Jan 22, 2005 in there as well. Heavy snow from the northern plains through the Lakes/OV and onto the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Add the 2007 V Day Blizzard, Dec 15-16 2007, etc etc. Yeah the Valentines Day storm was the other that came to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 You can throw the clipper on steroids of Jan 22, 2005 in there as well. Heavy snow from the northern plains through the Lakes/OV and onto the east coast. that was the bust on steroids here in cenral OH. Rain, clap of thunder, and then a change to flurries....not even an inch. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Add the 2007 V Day Blizzard, Dec 15-16 2007, etc etc. ugh, more CMH hearbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 And let me say this, just so everyone doesn't think I'm a complete a**hole...but when the Lakes/OV forum gets into "storm mode", whether it be severe or snow, there's a lot of knowledgable people here that do a great job. I really believe that. Long range range forecasting...not so much. But that's not everyone's cup of tea...which is fine. And Stebo, I was trying to single you out quoting your post. Or JoMo or anyone in particular. All is well. Yeah it's ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 The sst cooling off Western Canada with warm ssts under that region might not be good. If outside forces dont force pattern change on a large scale. This can be a sign of perpetual troughing. But cold core HPs are bottom/up forming. So if we have to wait we might get lucky with some boss deep HPs with deep cold pools. I think the lakes to S. Canada are In ok position, but the blocking going away is not good at all. That can quickly get us back to a West based SW flow with the SE ridge screwing us South and East in the Sub Forum. Well see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I think the lakes to S. Canada are In ok position, but the blocking going away is not good at all. That can quickly get us back to a West based SW flow with the SE ridge screwing us South and East in the Sub Forum. I'll take a more active winter severe season with a pattern like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Wasn't that mostly sleet, can't quite remember? I remember it was looking good 3-4 days before then there was a huge move to the n/w. VD 2007, I'll never forget days leading up to that it was a DC bomb on the models. Consistent run after run the gfs was showing like 40" for the DC area....then about 48 hours out it started shifting further nw and we were in the game right up to night before when the forecasts were for 12" of snow the next day. It started snowing in the morning and by noon it was nothing but a sleetfest. I know the Hoosier crew got crushed as did nw ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 And let me say this, just so everyone doesn't think I'm a complete a**hole...but when the Lakes/OV forum gets into "storm mode", whether it be severe or snow, there's a lot of knowledgable people here that do a great job. I really believe that. Long range range forecasting...not so much. But that's not everyone's cup of tea...which is fine. fair and guilty as charged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 You can throw the clipper on steroids of Jan 22, 2005 in there as well. Heavy snow from the northern plains through the Lakes/OV and onto the east coast. that was the one I was about to mention. One of my favorites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I'll take a more active winter severe season with a pattern like this. Agree. And we just might get it since statistically I believe SPC storm report yearly totals are way down and I am a firm believer in the pendulum swinging with respect to a more active period this winter into spring than last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I find the discussion about the info pulled from the Eastern thread to be interesting. I don't look at it much but I'm sure there is good stuff there. Keep in mind with regards to a western ridge popping up, that's what they are looking for as it normally forces some kind of trough over the central part of the country phasing with the southern jet somewhere near the Alabama area and then cutting up the east coast. The vast majority of us (if you can include MN in this sub forum) want see a trough out west that will did south and pick up the southern jet somewhere near the OK panhandle which of course will pop a ridge over the eastern part of the country, the low pressure system that should form at the surface will ride the western edge of said ridge up into our general area. The favored track for MSP is for the low to track over or just east of ARX and continue north eastward to Green Bay. Now let's take into account the strongly -PDO that we have been seeing. If it stays that way it very well may drive cold air in over the Dakota's and MN before the low gets here pushing the eastern ridge further east. This would force the track of the low toward or just east of Madison on the western side or just east of Chicago to Detroit on the eastern side. That is why I have always said the ARX will very likely see more snow than MSP. So I guess we will have to have some patience as we wait to see where the 1st blockbuster winter storm of the season will track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I look at this winter as it can't possibly be as worse as last winter (knock on wood) just have to be patient and give mother nature some time to make lemonade out of atmospheric lemons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I'll take a more active winter severe season with a pattern like this. Its very possible. Especially if the NAO goes neutral or positive and the Pacific is how it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I look at this winter as it can't possibly be as worse as last winter (knock on wood) just have to be patient and give mother nature some time to make lemonade out of atmospheric lemons. It is frustrating, Alaska is cold, Europe is cold, we are warm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I look at this winter as it can't possibly be as worse as last winter (knock on wood) just have to be patient and give mother nature some time to make lemonade out of atmospheric lemons. Chicagowx has been nice enough to show us that it very much can be just as bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I look at this winter as it can't possibly be as worse as last winter (knock on wood) just have to be patient and give mother nature some time to make lemonade out of atmospheric lemons. Sure it can. In all seriousness I am thinking it will be a rather unremarkable winter around here. That doesn't mean bad, just sort of meh with snowfall not far from average and temps perhaps a bit colder than average. Hopefully there's a big storm...would always rather have that instead of nickel and diming every step of the way. That post by bow about 8 sub freezing highs last winter at MKE in months other than January is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 It is frustrating, Alaska is cold, Europe is cold, we are warm..... isn't this the story since 2009-2010? The whole world is cooling...except us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I look at this winter as it can't possibly be as worse as last winter (knock on wood) just have to be patient and give mother nature some time to make lemonade out of atmospheric lemons. The only way winter could be worse than last year here is the same temp/snowcover disaster but with less snowfall. Temperatures (save for 2 bitter cold days) and snowcover (3 days at a time) were nothing short of disaster. Snowfall sucked but was hardly in the futility conversation (it was the 23rd least snowy winter in the 132 years of record). You could give me an EXACT match to last seasons snowfall (26") but throw in cold and snowcover and it would be, imo, leaps and bounds better than last year. And that has happened before locally -- 1944-45 saw just 25.8" of snow but was a very cold winter (likely suppression). It started with winters biggest snowstorm (5.5") on December 10th and from then through mid-late February snow covered the ground (most of the time 4-8" deep) with bitter cold and nickels and dimes. Same in 1947-48....only 26.6" of snow but it tied for our 2nd whitest winter on record (89 days), no big snowstorms (biggest 4.4", but hey that was par for the course in the '40s) but there was a devastating new years ice storm (which only helped lock in the snowcover more). Moral of the story: Theres a LOT more to a winter than JUST snowfall. The above scenarios (44-45, 47-48) are NOT the kind of winter I want, just saying it would be a HELL of a lot better than last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 isn't this the story since 2009-2010? The whole world is cooling...except us. No its the story since 2011-12. In 2009-10 and 2010-11 Alaska had very mild winters (esp 2009-10) while we were cold, in fact quite cold in 2010-11. Then 2011-12 saw alaska with one of its coldest winters on record and many here with one of the mildest. It seems to be that generally whatever Alaska has, we have the opposite, which is why its odd that we are both colder than normal this November. Though they are running quite the snow deficit to start winter there (and there early and late seasons are their snowiest part of winter vs our DJF being the good stuff), so hopefully this bodes well in the longterm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I'm hoping baro took the Nebraska torches up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 The GFS embodies the Messiah of pattern changes around December 10th. It's been consistently showing this, so let's hope it continues to do so. Looks positively delicious in the long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 B+ fantasy storm on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 B+ fantasy storm on the 12z GFS Needs a slight shift south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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