Chicago WX Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Not liking what I'm reading the SNE thread. HM seems to think there's a likelihood of a +AO towards the latter part of December. Again, these indicies aren't always determinative with regard to what kind of sensible wx we experience, but if we have trouble getting the Pacific to play ball, a -PNA/+EPO/+AO shouldn't exactly instill us with a lot of confidence. I'll cherry pick some of his discussion. Emphasis on the second paragraph. Optimistic side and all... I don't like late December and neither has Roundy's data indicating a very warm pattern. You can easily see how we punt December if we don't get the NAO help in the beginning, get a brief retrogression and then a warm-up returns. On a strictly Tropical Wave sense and AAM, they are going to want to make the pattern warmer / +AO tendency. Also, you'll see a general upswing in solar activity in December which will also add to the +AO tendency. Finally, the stratosphere will be a top-down wave 1 response which will initially mean the cold vortex / westerlies dominate the troposphere for a time in between disturbed states which could coincide with late December. All of that may end up brief though. Last week, I thought the warm period would be brief starting near xmas. So we'll see. The other option is that the AO continues to get disturbed and combined with the tropical data would mean a CLASSIC La Niña gradient pattern and that is a snowy one from the Midwest to New England. This would confine the warmup to the Southeast US. If I had to pick between the two options, I'm thinking the second one and New England will be saved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Im wondering if we may be in for a roller-coaster winter this year? After one winter that was largely cold and the next largely mild, I suppose we are due. Historically those winters can bring the most snowfall but also not allow a deep snowpack to sustain itself. I think anything is possible. Its possible we could be stuck with 5 straight below normal snowfall winters... There is really nothing to point to one way or another. It could be the 1990's redux. I'm really looking for a good site that has model archives, but I don't recall seeing that many massive lows crashing into British Columbia in the past. That's not what I want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Reading his posts for a while I get the vibe he thinks a pattern change to colder/snowier occurs in mid-Dec, then warming late-Dec into early Jan before winter returns for a longer stay. I hope this warm spike, if it occurs, is AFTER Christmas. Although if you want to take it fwiw, his last paragraph is good news. I'll cherry pick some of his discussion. Emphasis on the second paragraph. Optimistic side and all... I know I'm being foolish now, but I can't help getting this feeling that these positive caveats are inserted by these mets to mollify the weenie masses. Obviously it shouldn't be discarded in total, but just personally, I'll gravitate towards the pessimistic side of the analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I know I'm being foolish now, but I can't help getting this feeling that these positive caveats are inserted by these mets to mollify the weenie masses. Obviously it shouldn't be discarded in total, but just personally, I'll gravitate towards the pessimistic side of the analysis. You should become a Cubs fan. I started a nice thread in the sports forum, where I release every negative fiber I possess. With good reason. But, I understand your position with a pattern change towards something good. Hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 You should become a Cubs fan. I started a nice thread in the sports forum, where I release every negative fiber I possess. With good reason. But, I understand your position with a pattern change towards something good. Hope for the best. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 That stuff still confuses me. Are these good or bad changes at 240? Regardless always seems ensembles are the way to go over the OP. It's a good thing. The last thing we want is a vortex sitting in the Gulf of Alaska like last year causing Pacific air to flood the CONUS all winter. The upcoming change is encouraging but the question remains on if it will stick around or if we will go right back to the GOA low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 That stuff still confuses me. Are these good or bad changes at 240? Regardless always seems ensembles are the way to go over the OP. Ridging in the GOA is good. Freak - the ridge will direct storms and the Pacific air further south into California/southern Oregon more so. Storms then ride up into the Midwest from the SW area. With regard to the mild spell - thinking some of the days will feature clouds, drizzle, fog, or all of the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 You do have to be careful about reading what the northeast meteorologists are saying in their sub-forum because they are usually talking about their specific region. A western/central trough that keeps them on the warm side of things will look bad to them, but it's actually better for places like Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 You do have to be careful about reading what the northeast meteorologists are saying in their sub-forum because they are usually talking about their specific region. A western/central trough that keeps them on the warm side of things will look bad to them, but it's actually better for places like Chicago. Yeah I would be cautious about reading too much into what they say, I can understand SSC wanting to follow their posts closely because he is about as far East as you can get in the region. For the majority of us however their stuff isn't too terribly important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 You do have to be careful about reading what the northeast meteorologists are saying in their sub-forum because they are usually talking about their specific region. A western/central trough that keeps them on the warm side of things will look bad to them, but it's actually better for places like Chicago. Exactly, I think many in the region would love a gradient pattern, as it at least tends to be favorable around here compared to the coastal cities. Also, starting as early as next week, at least transient cool shots look to return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Interesting looking map at this point. Trough here, GOAK low still present. Eastern Siberian low heights back off to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 You do have to be careful about reading what the northeast meteorologists are saying in their sub-forum because they are usually talking about their specific region. A western/central trough that keeps them on the warm side of things will look bad to them, but it's actually better for places like Chicago. Finally someone points this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 You do have to be careful about reading what the northeast meteorologists are saying in their sub-forum because they are usually talking about their specific region. A western/central trough that keeps them on the warm side of things will look bad to them, but it's actually better for places like Chicago. If you're looking for a big midwest or Ohio Valley bomb, you don't want a pattern favorable for noreasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 If you're looking for a big midwest or Ohio Valley bomb, you don't want a pattern favorable for noreasters. It's actually rare, or at least, not common that a major event affects the whole midwest and northeast at one time. I can't recall the last time this has happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I think anything is possible. Its possible we could be stuck with 5 straight below normal snowfall winters... There is really nothing to point to one way or another. It could be the 1990's redux. I'm really looking for a good site that has model archives, but I don't recall seeing that many massive lows crashing into British Columbia in the past. That's not what I want to see. Very true anything could be possible. Could see 5 stinkers or 5 epic winters (reality will PROBABLY be in between). I sure as hell hope its not a 1990s redux. Without looking at any exact stats, off the top of my head when I think of the 1990s (at least the latter half), I think of mild Decembers with light snow and not a White Christmas, then a nice snowy January, a mild february with little snow, and a mid-late march snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 You should become a Cubs fan. I started a nice thread in the sports forum, where I release every negative fiber I possess. With good reason. But, I understand your position with a pattern change towards something good. Hope for the best. We all are hoping for the best! But since we are moving closer to winter, at the very least, snow chances are quickly increasing, good pattern or not. Many bad patterns will yield snow, just not of the lasting variety that people like me like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Freak - the ridge will direct storms and the Pacific air further south into California/southern Oregon more so. Storms then ride up into the Midwest from the SW area. With regard to the mild spell - thinking some of the days will feature clouds, drizzle, fog, or all of the above. Oh absolutely. And dont forget wind. It amazes me how many people just love a warm December day (general public Im talking) when most of the time it comes with conditions as described. This is in contrast to a day like today when the air was more typical of mid-late December but the skies sunny and the winds calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Yeah I would be cautious about reading too much into what they say, I can understand SSC wanting to follow their posts closely because he is about as far East as you can get in the region. For the majority of us however their stuff isn't too terribly important. I have found that for us being in eastern MI, we are sort of on the line. Yes we are the midwest, but often times Ive found our weather is more closely related to NE than much of the midwest. Not talking specific storms, obviously when it comes to the big storms we certainly want different tracks than them....just general pattern ideas (troughing, ridging, etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Yeah I would be cautious about reading too much into what they say, I can understand SSC wanting to follow their posts closely because he is about as far East as you can get in the region. For the majority of us however their stuff isn't too terribly important. I don't think even a stupid **** like me needs to be told whats good for them may not be the best for us or vice versa.. Picking apart non-weenie Mets post from ORH_wxman...CoastalWX...HM...TropopauseFold...etc offer a ton of valuable information in to what we can possibly expect down the pipe.. There is a reason a lot of us read their sub-forum just as much if not more than ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Between Typhoon Tip and CT Blizz the NE thread is mostly avoided. Most of their banter is beyond me and our region. SSC has more of reason to meander over there than anyone west of CLE. I do frequent that sub forum from time to time view the euro maps or other interesting hard to find plots. But other than that its all over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I don't think even a stupid **** like me needs to be told whats good for them may not be the best for us or vice versa.. Picking apart non-weenie Mets post from ORH_wxman...CoastalWX...HM...TropopauseFold...etc offer a ton of valuable information in to what we can possibly expect down the pipe.. There is a reason a lot of us read their sub-forum just as much if not more than ours. I am not discounting what they say at all if that's what you took from my post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I am not discounting what they say at all if that's what you took from my post... Not at all I just believe if used right...there is a lot of good information from their long range discussions to get a decent idea of what could be translating down the road for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Not at all I just believe if used right...there is a lot of good information from their long range discussions to get a decent idea of what could be translating down the road for us. Oh I completely agree, you just have to sift through the SNE discussion points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Not at all I just believe if used right...there is a lot of good information from their long range discussions to get a decent idea of what could be translating down the road for us. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I posted this in another thread but its really more relative here. With it having been a dry Fall, does that mean a greater chance of less snow in winter? I knew anything could happen...but it turns out of our 20 driest falls, the following winters were split RIGHT down the middle, with 10 having above normal snowfall and 10 having below normal. The worst was following the dry Fall of 1889, only 15.8" of snow fell that winter. The best, following the dry Fall of 1899, a nice 69.1" of snow fell. Bottom line...no correlation. This Fall will just miss the 20 driest Falls list by 0.39" (if no more falls in Nov). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Oh I completely agree, you just have to sift through the SNE discussion points. Yup...and if you just stick to the Winter 2012-2013 thread you can avoid most all of the weenie/banter and OT post and its chock full of educational content for all levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Yeah I would be cautious about reading too much into what they say, I can understand SSC wanting to follow their posts closely because he is about as far East as you can get in the region. For the majority of us however their stuff isn't too terribly important. Nobody is that dumb. Fact of the matter HM, ORH, and Will are some of the best this entire forum has to offer. Who wouldn't want to go read their stuff, even if primarily NE focused, if you want to try to pick up extended details that can still apply to our region. No one takes the bull by the horns in this sub-forum except for the trolls and debbies. And that sh*t is worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Damn it, should have the read the last page. Ignore my last post. Well, except for the part about the trolls and debbies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Bingo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Damn it, should have the read the last page. Ignore my last post. Well, except for the part about the trolls and debbies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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