michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 The temp of this Nov was 7 deg colder but the precip was (?) less ??? My worry is for the cold to come in with no precip. for the drought IMO is still in efect from this summer !! So what does a dry fall= WRT precip in the winter, liquid and solid ?? At Detroit, last November was the wettest on record (6.00") and should no measurable precip fall through Friday this will be the 6th driest Nov on record (0.72"). Quite a difference I'd say! There is no correlation with dry Fall's and winter snowfall here...some of the winters were snowy, some were not...quite a mixed bag. Drought (which our region isnt technically in anyway) doesnt affect winter weather nearly as much as it does summer weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 i know we all like snow but it's pretty amazing how long it has been since Chicago has seen 1"+. Really hoping we go for the record. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 If the sub forum does get into a wintry pattern in mid December, I think it will be a gradient-type pattern with very cold air in Canada and the northern US battling with very mild air from the south. Potential for a lot snow for those fortunate to be on the good side of the gradient. Ive heard a lot of people saying that. Which means some would be sitting pretty and others green with envy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 In response to Mike. I say to just pack December in. I know it hasn't started yet but the first week looks crap and now there are even some questions about the second week. I am really trying to keep my emotions in check but boy if by dec 15 and we still have no snow it's going to get very nasty in that complaint thread. I think for the eastern lakes area anyway december won't be much maybe the western lakes cashes in. Oh well I guess sigh I don't care if every model showed a record torch from now through mid-Dec (which they do not btw, relax lol)....how can you even enjoy winter when you are packing in a month BEFORE IT BEGINS!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 November will most likely end with below normal temps for the month. The last few months have had normal to below normal temps. We went through that horrendous stretch from late 2011 until late last Summer of a very warm pattern but that ended several months ago. It's November not the middle of January. Expectations, expectations. I had 2 inches of snow on Sunday and still have snowcover today. It was in the teens here this morning. Yes, it's going to torch this weekend/early next week but it's not anything close to the same pattern that made last Winter terrible. This times a MILLION!!!! We have been out of the persistent above-normal temp regime since August now. Anyone who sees similarities between this Nov and last, which averaged some 7F warmer, just WOW (I won't even get into the precip difference). By "similarities" they must simply mean they are not buried in snow in late November. Average highs are still 43F for Detroit, Chicago, and Buffalo (so I assume Toronto over 40F as well). You are not supposed to be locked in cold now...and if we were, I would be full of anxiety for the 2nd half of winter. I know this sounds weird...but....I MUCH prefer a back-loaded winter even though snow at Christmas is important to me. What I mean is, give me clippers and a snowcover for Christmas and Ill be fine (even if we watch a noreaster to our east or something) because Jan-Feb is when I really get into snowstorms non-stop (Dec is busy with the holidays and all). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 lol Per your post the other day, Chicago would have to go to mid-January without a 1" snow to see that record (I know DTW would have to go to Jan 14th). It is late November. The pattern is actually completely irrelevant in the odds that Chicago goes to mid-January without a 1" snowfall. Warm, cold, it doesnt matter. Chicago will get a 1-inch snowfall before mid-January lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 November will most likely end with below normal temps for the month. The last few months have had normal to below normal temps. We went through that horrendous stretch from late 2011 until late last Summer of a very warm pattern but that ended several months ago. It's November not the middle of January. Expectations, expectations. I had 2 inches of snow on Sunday and still have snowcover today. It was in the teens here this morning. Yes, it's going to torch this weekend/early next week but it's not anything close to the same pattern that made last Winter terrible. v I agree and you made valid points. Im just flustered by the hostile pacific combined in tandem with blocking features that we have been seeing. Just leaves me shaking my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Per your post the other day, Chicago would have to go to mid-January without a 1" snow to see that record (I know DTW would have to go to Jan 14th). It is late November. The pattern is actually completely irrelevant in the odds that Chicago goes to mid-January without a 1" snowfall. Warm, cold, it doesnt matter. Chicago will get a 1-inch snowfall before mid-January lol. Yeah it's a ballpark estimate not being able to see daily data back then, but I believe the record to be at least 322 days. But the "for sure" latest 1.0"+ record for Chicago in a season is January 17, 1899. That's a solid benchmark for the doom and gloomers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Yeah it's a ballpark estimate not being able to see daily data back then, but I believe the record to be at least 322 days. But the "for sure" latest 1.0"+ record for Chicago in a season is January 17, 1899. That's a solid benchmark for the doom and gloomers. That's pre-official site move to ORD right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I wonder if we might have a 09-10 type of winter. Kinda slow to start for many of us then came Feb. Which was very snowy and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 That's pre-official site move to ORD right? Just a bit. In recent times, here's some first 1"+ snowfalls at ORD. Ordered latest to earliest... 2001-02: January 16 1993-94: January 5 2003-04: January 4 1998-99: January 1 2011-12: December 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 This times a MILLION!!!! We have been out of the persistent above-normal temp regime since August now. Anyone who sees similarities between this Nov and last, which averaged some 7F warmer, just WOW (I won't even get into the precip difference). By "similarities" they must simply mean they are not buried in snow in late November. Average highs are still 43F for Detroit, Chicago, and Buffalo (so I assume Toronto over 40F as well). You are not supposed to be locked in cold now...and if we were, I would be full of anxiety for the 2nd half of winter. I know this sounds weird...but....I MUCH prefer a back-loaded winter even though snow at Christmas is important to me. What I mean is, give me clippers and a snowcover for Christmas and Ill be fine (even if we watch a noreaster to our east or something) because Jan-Feb is when I really get into snowstorms non-stop (Dec is busy with the holidays and all). Yep gotta remember that this pattern is nothing like last year at this time. A dry November with little to no accumulating snow is nothing new. Pattern changes never look to transistion smoothly on the models. There is always some mayhem between them. Still thinking that December 10th give or take 3 days will be the starting of snowfalls not related to lake effect in this subforum. Whether the snow is from Clippers, Panhandlers or something else remains to be seen. I somewhat prefer a backloaded winter, but I like at least the latest half of December to be snow covered. Then a drier break after New Years is fine. Seems a lot of back loaded winters start up around that January 20-25 time frame around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Brett Anderson has the Euro Weeklies interpretation up. Looks like a ridge over the west and trough over the east. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/updated-long-range-forecast-model-outlook/2051394 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 12z GFS in the long range really hits the pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I don't care if every model showed a record torch from now through mid-Dec (which they do not btw, relax lol)....how can you even enjoy winter when you are packing in a month BEFORE IT BEGINS!? Cheers to this. I thought there was a thread that dealt with complaints about the winter that hasn't begun. I'm confident in models that show temperatures dropping and snow arriving--for me at least in SE Wisco. Give it time, have patience. Winter will come, temperatures will drop, and snow will fall. In the meantime use the "torch" as an excuse to step outside and enjoy things without having frozen appendages or a driveway to clear or snot dried to the side of your face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Looking at the LR models (past 7-10 days) and the behavior of the torches (more like 2-4 day mild spells) we have had so far this season tell me we won't be stuck in a long term warm pattern, but will we get any real Arctic air to come into the Lower 48? One hope I have is the Huge GOA low that is going to sling storms to the West Coast for the next 5 - 10 days will eventually retrograde enough to allow at least somewhat of a PNA ridge to pop and let some of the cold air building in NW Canada to come south and east. The thing I don't like is a continued propensity for low heights over Alaska. I'd love to see a low over the Aleutians pumping a huge PNA ridge, but somehow I don't see that happening in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 12z GFS in the long range really hits the pattern change. indeed it does! nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 the GFS has been hinting at a pattern change in deep fantasy land for months... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 the GFS has been hinting at a pattern change in deep fantasy land for months... Actually this warm-up coming Saturday was shown in the 340-384 hour range and its going to verify. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Actually this warm-up coming Saturday was shown in the 340-384 hour range and its going to verify. Jon This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Okee doke then. Man, this one's gonna rock. First call for LAF for Dec 13-14, 4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 awful Probably best if people move past say, the period through the first week of December to the 10th. It's gone, toast for all intents and purposes. I believe most understand things don't look favorable. Hopefully there are some opportunities past that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Probably best if people move past say, the period through the first week of December to the 10th. It's gone, toast for all intents and purposes. I believe most understand things don't look favorable. Hopefully there are some opportunities past that point. We have been talking about this for days. The first 10 days of Dec are shot. May see a fleeting snow or the torch may not be so torchy, but full-on winter is not happening, so I dont know why its a surprise. The concentration has been on a regime change around the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 We have been talking about this for days. The first 10 days of Dec are shot. May see a fleeting snow or the torch may not be so torchy, but full-on winter is not happening, so I dont know why its a surprise. The concentration has been on a regime change around the 10th. You can see the changes on the 12z Euro @ 240 today. The ridging in the Pacific and the trough has retrograded back to west of Alaska. However, it's uncertain if it will go right back to the way it was/is right now. The mets on the New England forum seem shaky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Not liking what I'm reading the SNE thread. HM seems to think there's a likelihood of a +AO towards the latter part of December. Again, these indicies aren't always determinative with regard to what kind of sensible wx we experience, but if we have trouble getting the Pacific to play ball, a -PNA/+EPO/+AO shouldn't exactly instill us with a lot of confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 You can see the changes on the 12z Euro @ 240 today. The ridging in the Pacific and the trough has retrograded back to west of Alaska. However, it's uncertain if it will go right back to the way it was/is right now. The mets on the New England forum seem shaky. That stuff still confuses me. Are these good or bad changes at 240? Regardless always seems ensembles are the way to go over the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 That stuff still confuses me. Are these good or bad changes at 240? Regardless always seems ensembles are the way to go over the OP. Ridging in the GOA is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Not liking what I'm reading the SNE thread. HM seems to think there's a likelihood of a +AO towards the latter part of December. Again, these indicies aren't always determinative with regard to what kind of sensible wx we experience, but if we have trouble getting the Pacific to play ball, a -PNA/+EPO/+AO shouldn't exactly instill us with a lot of confidence. Reading his posts for a while I get the vibe he thinks a pattern change to colder/snowier occurs in mid-Dec, then warming late-Dec into early Jan before winter returns for a longer stay. I hope this warm spike, if it occurs, is AFTER Christmas. Although if you want to take it fwiw, his last paragraph is good news. I don't like late December and neither has Roundy's data indicating a very warm pattern. You can easily see how we punt December if we don't get the NAO help in the beginning, get a brief retrogression and then a warm-up returns. On a strictly Tropical Wave sense and AAM, they are going to want to make the pattern warmer / +AO tendency. Also, you'll see a general upswing in solar activity in December which will also add to the +AO tendency. Finally, the stratosphere will be a top-down wave 1 response which will initially mean the cold vortex / westerlies dominate the troposphere for a time in between disturbed states which could coincide with late December. All of that may end up brief though. Last week, I thought the warm period would be brief starting near xmas. So we'll see. The other option is that the AO continues to get disturbed and combined with the tropical data would mean a CLASSIC La Niña gradient pattern and that is a snowy one from the Midwest to New England. This would confine the warmup to the Southeast US. If I had to pick between the two options, I'm thinking the second one and New England will be saved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Ridging in the GOA is good. Im wondering if we may be in for a roller-coaster winter this year? After one winter that was largely cold and the next largely mild, I suppose we are due. Historically those winters can bring the most snowfall but also not allow a deep snowpack to sustain itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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