Long Term Disco

[snowstormcanuck]

Nice +PNA ridge developing on the EURO @ D10. Seems to coincide with the DEC 5-10 pattern change I've been hearing about.

[buckeye]

Scraped together 3.0" with the Dec 2004 storm here. Better than March 2008 though. That one still stings a bit. Would have put LAF north of 50" for the season if it would've just NW trended like I hoped it would. Wasn't meant to be...never saw a flake. CMH of course got crushed.

One of my top 5...had lot had to do with the timing of the year it occurred. I remember the morning the storm began I woke to a bit of a surprise. Local mets said the night before that we would begin with rain or sleet and changeover to just rain. Instead it began as snow and the national radar showed a solid train of snow extending from TX to central OH with virtually no eastern movement. It snowed moderately all day. Around 9pm I heard the first 'pings' on the window and soon after it was all freezing rain. We ended up with around 7" of snow encased in about 1/3" of ice the next morning. That eery feel the next morning when you step outside everything is 'crackling' and in the distance there are flashes of blue in the sky as transformers blew. Temps dropped into the teens for the next few days and it made for the most amazing Christmas scene I ever recalled. It literally looked like all the trees had xmas lights on them for the next few sunsets....most notably, christmas eve.

The gradient across the Columbus area was amazing. 15 miles west and it was primarily heavy snow. Here it was snow and ice. 10 mles east was a paralyzing icestorm. 15 miles east was an uneventful rain storm.

[WestMichigan]

One of my top 5...had lot had to do with the timing of the year it occurred. I remember the morning the storm began I woke to a bit of a surprise. Local mets said the night before that we would begin with rain or sleet and changeover to just rain. Instead it began as snow and the national radar showed a solid train of snow extending from TX to central OH with virtually no eastern movement. It snowed moderately all day. Around 9pm I heard the first 'pings' on the window and soon after it was all freezing rain. We ended up with around 7" of snow encased in about 1/3" of ice the next morning. That eery feel the next morning when you step outside everything is 'crackling' and in the distance there are flashes of blue in the sky as transformers blew. Temps dropped into the teens for the next few days and it made for the most amazing Christmas scene I ever recalled. It literally looked like all the trees had xmas lights on them for the next few sunsets....most notably, christmas eve.

The gradient across the Columbus area was amazing. 15 miles west and it was primarily heavy snow. Here it was snow and ice. 10 mles east was a paralyzing icestorm. 15 miles east was an uneventful rain storm.

I drove west to east across Columbus during that storm. It took forever to get out of Columbus and then it was just rain all the way through eastern Ohio. I came back to Hilliard and had exactly what you described. Lots of snow encased in ice. My brother in West Jefferson only had snow with a very thin layer of ice and his total accumulation was nearly twice as much as what we had. Pretty remarkable how tight the gradient was from nothing to ice to all snow.

[A-L-E-K]

12z Euro is awful if you like snow and the long range looks worse

[snowstormcanuck]

12z Euro is awful if you like snow and the long range looks worse

Thing to keep in mind is that it looks a fair bit different from its 0z run. Even with a good model like the EURO, tough to keep a ton of continuity beyond D6.

[michsnowfreak]

12z Euro is awful if you like snow and the long range looks worse

The euro goes out to December 6th. Everyone has been talking for several days now about a torch to start december with a pattern change to much colder and stormier sometime around the 10th or so.Some in the new england pattern banter thread are saying that the end of the euro run is showing signs exactly what we want and what the ensembles were pointing to.

[snowstormcanuck]

I do have to say, I'm not a fan of this:

Older runs of the EURO ensembles were much more prominent with the -NAO going into December. -NAO isn't the be all and end all for winter weather, but with the Pacific the way it is, it's going to have to help out more than what the above graph is showing.

[OHweather]

When looking ahead at the Pacific pattern…there are still some signs of things trying to improve the second week of December, but only slowly so…

The GFS ensembles have backed off somewhat on the idea of the –WPO trending towards neutral…however, the GFS and 0z ECM Ensembles do still show the massive NE Asian vortex, which is pumping ridging into the Aleutians and is expected to produce a trough off the west coast, shifting west a bit in a week and a half to two weeks, giving some room for ridging shifting west towards the west coast, potentially allowing a more seasonable if not somewhat cool pattern to return at some point near or just before mid-December:

Euro ensembles (0z Monday) day 3 vs day 10…showing some retrogression of the NE Asian Vortex and subsequent weakening of the large upper low just off the west coast…although the pattern is still not optimal yet.

GFS ensembles (12z Monday) day 9.5 (valid same time as right Euro ensemble image) vs day 16…shows a remarkably similar pattern in the Pacific as the Euro ensembles 10 days out, and shows significant retrogression and weakening of the large NE Asian vortex, allowing troughing to be weaker and more favorably placed off the west coast of the US at the end of the run, allowing for some troughing from the eastern Midwest into the eastern US.

Convection near the equator continues to fester near the dateline. Thus far this has not developed into a full blown MJO pulse yet, although it has been persistent and the models have been trying to develop an MJO pulse and propagate it east of the dateline this week into next week for several days now. Most recent modeling does show some attempt to move the MJO into phase 1 at a relatively low amplitude over the coming days…with the ECM making the move sooner than the GFS suite. The GFS then shows the MJO pulse amplifying in phase 1 while the ECM relatively quickly moves things through phase 2 and into phase 3 at very low amplitude as we head towards mid-December.

The GLAMM has recently (finally) broken into positive territory which is generally associated with El Nino, and tropical convection east of the dateline. It is currently in phase 7 heading towards phase 8, which supports convection farther east towards S. America. Given this I will give some more credence to the ECM suite with a low amplitude MJO pulse through phases 1-2 over the next couple of weeks with the MJO potentially moving into a more unfavorable phase 3 or falling back into the “circle of death” near Mid-December, which gives with the current GLAMM heading towards more neutral phases, and potentially continuing to do so over the coming days. Again though, I’m not an “MJO expert” so I may be off. However, this indicates that once the NE Asia vortex either retrogrades or weakens, we’ll have a potentially favorable MJO for west coast ridging through Mid-December, give or take. After that, the MJO may become more unfavorable for late December.

When it comes to high-latitude blocking, there is going to be a fair amount of it over the next couple of weeks, however it is uncertain how beneficial it will be to us…

The NAO is forecast to remain neutral to slightly negative into mid-December, which has been the general plan for several days now. The AO is quickly falling right now and is expected to remain negative into Mid-December with a split tropospheric polar vortex…however, a good portion of the cold will go into Eurasia in the short-midterm, and given we are fighting the Pacific, this won’t help us through the first week of the month.

Given the continued forecast significant warming in the stratosphere from the bottom up mainly over Asia and the potential split of the lower levels of the stratospheric vortex over the coming week to 10 days, it is quite likely we won’t have to suffer through a period of a strong +AO for the foreseeable future. However, the models only show the lowest levels of the stratospheric vortex splitting through 10 days and show the strongest and coldest portion of the remaining lower stratospheric vortex over eastern N. America and the far north Atlantic (see above). Although the stratospheric anomalies often don’t match the tropospheric anomalies, this may be a situation like last year (for a time) where the majority of the cold dumps into Eurasia with a potential +NAO developing during the second half of December, even after a stratospheric warming event and vortex split. This jives well with a potentially less favorable MJO in this timeframe.

So, to sum it up, there are still signs that we may see a colder (seasonable to slightly colder than normal) period with troughing centered over the eastern US (potentially get the clipper/LES machine fired up again?) centered near mid-December. However, I still feel that there are signs pointing towards another period of warmth after that into early January. It should be noted I generally feel positive about this winter and think we’ll go cold again at some point in January, but it may be relatively boring up to that point.

[SpartyOn]

The displayed return of a favorable pacific brought a great smile to me. Lock it in!

[Geos]

Nice update OH weather! The mention of a NW flow after the short term sounds good. If anything we can track clippers during December.

I'm glad a raging negative NAO or positive for that matter is not forecast. Some of the best snowstorm have been with a near neutral to slightly positive NAO. - Just need the Pacific to rearrange itself better.

[Jonger]

GEM and GFS both show a pattern regime change around day 10, looks seasonable.

[michsnowfreak]

Whats funny is that we all seem to be looking for that cold weather pattern and "pattern change" by mid December or earlier but its not like we are in endless mild air like last year (this November will ikely finish some 7F colder than last November!). It is this coming warm spell to start December that has been the more rare bird lately. We just need some ACTION! Hopefully when this cold arrives, be it seasonable again or colder than normal, the clippers and hookers will come with it!

[OHweather]

Ya. We'll see if we can get a substancial storm threat to emerge somewhere near Mid-December. If we don't see the NAO go extremely negative (which I don't think it will) there may be enough room for storms to hook inland enough to affect parts of our sub-forum with snow. I'd favor the southeastern portions, however this is a long way out and there is plenty of time to fine-tune, and even so I think we'd see a clipper or two to whitten the ground in some areas. There is also time still for a NW flow regime to not work out although I think it will to some extent by mid-month.

[DAFF]

The temp of this Nov was 7 deg colder but the precip was (?) less ??? My worry is for the cold to come in with no precip. for the drought IMO is still in efect from this summer !! So what does a dry fall= WRT precip in the winter, liquid and solid ??

[SpartyOn]

GEM and GFS both show a pattern regime change around day 10, looks seasonable.

Could be a couple or more days sooner.

[Jonger]

Whats funny is that we all seem to be looking for that cold weather pattern and "pattern change" by mid December or earlier but its not like we are in endless mild air like last year (this November will ikely finish some 7F colder than last November!). It is this coming warm spell to start December that has been the more rare bird lately. We just need some ACTION! Hopefully when this cold arrives, be it seasonable again or colder than normal, the clippers and hookers will come with it!

My first ride of the year was Nov 25th, beats last year by 5 days.

Jon

[Minnesota Meso]

I decided to take a look at the at the ensemble means from the Gem/GFS and Euro through 360hrs., that will take us out to Dec 11th. Looking at the H5 mean flow it looks promising in one regard, that being that most of country should be under the influence of a broad trough, although not all that cold, later in the period. But looking closer it looked like the southern jet was well south, say the central Gulf of Mexico. Decided to take a look at the 1000-500mb thickness lines as well as the mean surface pressure. And sure enough all three models seem to show a strong surface ridge from roughly the southern tip of Hawaii to south of California (say the Baja area). Also of concern is that the preponderance of the evidence also indicates a surface ridge over the SE US. In tandem this should act to keep the ULJ suppressed well to the south. I really don't see a chance in H*ll that we will see much phasing of the upper level jet. This signal looks to be pretty strong IMHO. Given that fact, I see some below normal temps coupled with a dry spell for most of this sub-forum through mid December, as a matter of fact I wonder if the east coast will see much snow.

At this point in time I'm thinking a major flip will have to occur in order for the Midwest and East Coast to see above normal snows for this winter. At this time I have no idea what would trigger that flip. Thoughts anyone?

[michsnowfreak]

I decided to take a look at the at the ensemble means from the Gem/GFS and Euro through 360hrs., that will take us out to Dec 11th. Looking at the H5 mean flow it looks promising in one regard, that being that most of country should be under the influence of a broad trough, although not all that cold, later in the period. But looking closer it looked like the southern jet was well south, say the central Gulf of Mexico. Decided to take a look at the 1000-500mb thickness lines as well as the mean surface pressure. And sure enough all three models seem to show a strong surface ridge from roughly the southern tip of Hawaii to south of California (say the Baja area). Also of concern is that the preponderance of the evidence also indicates a surface ridge over the SE US. In tandem this should act to keep the ULJ suppressed well to the south. I really don't see a chance in H*ll that we will see much phasing of the upper level jet. This signal looks to be pretty strong IMHO. Given that fact, I see some below normal temps coupled with a dry spell for most of this sub-forum through mid December, as a matter of fact I wonder if the east coast will see much snow.

At this point in time I'm thinking a major flip will have to occur in order for the Midwest and East Coast to see above normal snows for this winter. At this time I have no idea what would trigger that flip. Thoughts anyone?

We have an entire winter to worry about big atorms. As in almost 5 more months. My personal concern now is getting some snowcover for the cold. So maybe and hopefully the clipper express pays a visit. Its a nice luxury to live in an area where several different scenarios can give you snow.

[Thundersnow12]

Found this quite interesting

[JoMo]

I'll take an order of top left please, but I'd settle for bottom right. I wonder if that's where JB got his '50% of the country covered in snow' from.

[snowstormcanuck]

No way to sugar coat this one. 0z EURO looked like a disaster. Its ensembles were only slightly better. Right now, the only thing really pointing to a pattern change are the EURO weeklies, but even they show a tenuous situation with a GOA trough from what I've read. 6z GFS ensembles, even with its cold bias, looked less than stellar, with only a few members popping a +PNA ridge. On top of all this add the models propensity to bring on pattern changes too quickly. IF there's a change to a snowy pattern, I'd say it probably will not occur until after December 15th.

[The_Global_Warmer]

No way to sugar coat this one. 0z EURO looked like a disaster. Its ensembles were only slightly better. Right now, the only thing really pointing to a pattern change are the EURO weeklies, but even they show a tenuous situation with a GOA trough from what I've read. 6z GFS ensembles, even with its cold bias, looked less than stellar, with only a few members popping a +PNA ridge. On top of all this add the models propensity to bring on pattern changes too quickly. IF there's a change to a snowy pattern, I'd say it probably will not occur until after December 15th.

Yeah. there is signals for some LEK possibly around the 3rd or 4th if an upper plains wave amplifys and heads NE. Might bring favored LEK zones snow and a quick seasonal drop for most of us.

But the Pacific stays stuck in the mud.

The chances for a warmer than normal Dec are looking good for the sub forum attm.

More than anything the favored lakes and upper midwest regions are looking dry even during cold intrusions.

Patience will hit the fan in a week or so after the torching is coming in waves.

Gotta get the PV max on our side of the globe

[Toronto4]

Yeah. there is signals for some LEK possibly around the 3rd or 4th if an upper plains wave amplifys and heads NE. Might bring favored LEK zones snow and a quick seasonal drop for most of us.

But the Pacific stays stuck in the mud.

The chances for a warmer than normal Dec are looking good for the sub forum attm.

More than anything the favored lakes and upper midwest regions are looking dry even during cold intrusions.

Patience will hit the fan in a week or so after the torching is coming in waves.

Gotta get the PV max on our side of the globe

If the sub forum does get into a wintry pattern in mid December, I think it will be a gradient-type pattern with very cold air in Canada and the northern US battling with very mild air from the south. Potential for a lot snow for those fortunate to be on the good side of the gradient.

[KokomoWX]

I'll take an order of top left please, but I'd settle for bottom right. I wonder if that's where JB got his '50% of the country covered in snow' from.

All four have me in the screw zone.

[A-L-E-K]

i know we all like snow but it's pretty amazing how long it has been since Chicago has seen 1"+. Really hoping we go for the record.

[SpartyOn]

Something has got to give with regards to the hostile Pacific. Every single time we get a cold snap its destroyed and becomes highly transient. Its just odd how we are dealing with this once again. Also left scratching my head because of the lack of systems and how dry we have been region wide. I guess Im hoping we turn the corner in mid/late Dec.

[Jonger]

If the sub forum does get into a wintry pattern in mid December, I think it will be a gradient-type pattern with very cold air in Canada and the northern US battling with very mild air from the south. Potential for a lot snow for those fortunate to be on the good side of the gradient.

Yes please.

Jon

[toronto blizzard]

In response to Mike.

I say to just pack December in. I know it hasn't started yet but the first week looks crap and now there are even some questions about the second week. I am really trying to keep my emotions in check but boy if by dec 15 and we still have no snow it's going to get very nasty in that complaint thread. I think for the eastern lakes area anyway december won't be much maybe the western lakes cashes in. Oh well I guess sigh

[roardog]

Something has got to give with regards to the hostile Pacific. Every single time we get a cold snap its destroyed and becomes highly transient.

November will most likely end with below normal temps for the month. The last few months have had normal to below normal temps. We went through that horrendous stretch from late 2011 until late last Summer of a very warm pattern but that ended several months ago. It's November not the middle of January. Expectations, expectations. I had 2 inches of snow on Sunday and still have snowcover today. It was in the teens here this morning. Yes, it's going to torch this weekend/early next week but it's not anything close to the same pattern that made last Winter terrible.

[snowstormcanuck]

In response to Mike.

I say to just pack December in. I know it hasn't started yet but the first week looks crap and now there are even some questions about the second week. I am really trying to keep my emotions in check but boy if by dec 15 and we still have no snow it's going to get very nasty in that complaint thread. I think for the eastern lakes area anyway december won't be much maybe the western lakes cashes in. Oh well I guess sigh

Well, OP/ensembles only show what's going on through D10 (December 7th). Technically the GEFS go beyond that but they're not reliable out in fantasy land. Until the EURO weeklies turn to ****e, I wouldn't make any proclamations about the entire month. I think December 15th is a reasonable starting point if you take what the models are showing now, and add a week to account for their quick bias.