Long Term Disco

[toronto blizzard]

Everyone should check out Don S's posts about the winter of 2012-13:

http://www.americanw...nge-discussion/

A well respected forecaster and it's certainly nice to see the positive things he's saying about the upcoming winter for our area. I inferred a more relaxed 2009-10ish pattern, which if it reduced the ridiculous amount of suppression observed that winter while maintaining the same amount of storminess, would be pretty awesome.

Well Hopefully he is right. I still think to myself what 2009-10 could've been I mean if you think about those systems didn't miss us by much and if the blocking had been weaker we would've cashed in instead it was one of the least snowiest winters on record at YYZ.

On another note, I'm thinking our first meaningful snowfall might come around the 10th of December.

[snowstormcanuck]

Well Hopefully he is right. I still think to myself what 2009-10 could've been I mean if you think about those systems didn't miss us by much and if the blocking had been weaker we would've cashed in instead it was one of the least snowiest winters on record at YYZ.

On another note, I'm thinking our first meaningful snowfall might come around the 10th of December.

OP GFS hinting at some WAA snows later this week but it's low probability.

[toronto blizzard]

OP GFS hinting at some WAA snows later this week but it's low probability.

Ya I noticed it too. Let's see if it verifies

[The_Global_Warmer]

Josh has proven this statement to be false. I personally recorded my best sustaining snow of my life from 2000-2011.

Jon

This sub-forum its a lot bigger than your back yard.

You guys have had record snow totals and are at a favorable latitude but also at a great placement for the trough axis to keep cold enough air for sustaining snow cover.

But had a lack of sub 9F cold when days with snow cover + snow totals are disproportionately high.

You also are aided by LEK snow cover which is another negative feedback.

You're region is a great spot for snow totals to go up from a warming climate. But cold enough for high snow coverage duration. Leading to another big negative feedback that will help lower temps.

Its a nice circular loop to be in if you are a snow lover.

The only cost is the supreme record cold.

The further West and obviously South you go the changes become far more of an issue.

I expect you're region to continue to see similar conditions imposed over natural variables for quite sometime going forward.

I also think STL will get a 40-50" snow winter this decade and Two to three 30"+ winters but also the record warm DJF decade for STL.

[Chicago WX]

You know, I think we've moved past the intent of this thread...myself guilty. Probably better if a new thread is started to discuss long term/historical trends, data, etc...and leave this one to it's original idea of long term talk for 2012-13. Or if it's about the causation, moving it to the proper sub-forum. JMHO.

[beavis1729]

Josh has proven this statement to be false. I personally recorded my best sustaining snow of my life from 2000-2011.

Jon

Perhaps this is true in your back yard and/or other localized parts of MI...but is by no means correct in the Midwest/OV as a whole. In particular, it is certainly not correct in Minneapolis, Chicago, and St. Louis. Maybe STL is at one extreme, and your back yard is at the other extreme (?).

And again, cold temps are part of this too. I can't imagine that the 12-year period from 2000-2011 was in the top 25% (or even top 50%) of coldest DJF temps in MI.

[Geos]

With a sustained -nao models in the long range are likely not picking up on back door cold fronts with smaller vorts rotating around the main vort with the larger PV anomaly getting blocked up.

So a gradient will set up. With such an amplified zonal flow over the conus all the way to at least the Canadian border the warmth will be hard to knock down.

Probably from you to Detroit or so will be a battle ground.

however, unless the pacific is totally wrong everyone will have a few days of torch.

Depending on how negative the NAO is, I believe the battle ground will be further SW given the trend of the AO. Once the WPO relaxes in the negative and the ridge is allowed to build in more south of Alaska, areas north of I-70 should be experiencing sustained cold.

[beavis1729]

You know, I think we've moved past the intent of this thread...myself guilty. Probably better if a new thread is started to discuss long term/historical trends, data, etc...and leave this one to it's original idea of long term talk for 2012-13. Or if it's about the causation, moving it to the proper sub-forum. JMHO.

Fair enough...and I called this out in reply to friv's post. I don't have the ability to move posts myself.

Sometimes threads need to derail themselves a bit in order to keep a productive conversation going...but I see what you mean.

And some of this could be happening because the next 7-10 days look pretty uneventful...so conversation naturally turns to other things.

[Chicago WX]

Fair enough...and I called this out in reply to friv's post. I don't have the ability to move posts myself.

Sometimes threads need to derail themselves a bit in order to keep a productive conversation going...but I see what you mean.

And some of this could be happening because the next 7-10 days look pretty uneventful...so conversation naturally turns to other things.

I'm not trying to single anyone out, as I said I was guilty myself. Just thought we could get back on topic...even if the next week or so blows chunks. The topic of the last page is interesting and informative, but probably not for this particular thread. And as it's been for as long as I remember, if we're going down the road of AGW, well there's a sub-forum for that. Not saying anyone was going full bore on that, but I think you could see where it might have gone. Of course I'm most likely over stepping my grounds here...

[michsnowfreak]

Perhaps this is true in your back yard and/or other localized parts of MI...but is by no means correct in the Midwest/OV as a whole. In particular, it is certainly not correct in Minneapolis, Chicago, and St. Louis. Maybe STL is at one extreme, and your back yard is at the other extreme (?).

And again, cold temps are part of this too. I can't imagine that the 12-year period from 2000-2011 was in the top 25% (or even top 50%) of coldest DJF temps in MI.

Keep in mind...as you saw, the 1990s were the low decade for snowcover with a huge upswing in the 2000s. And those are stats that Ive compiled....does anyone actually have snowcover averages and stats for MSP, ORD, STL etc to prove one way or the other?

Anyway as Tim said we have strayed WAY OT in this thread....so back on topic....looks like a boring stretch coming up with a few very mild days to start December. Again, I cant say this enough....let it be! Let the pattern start to load into a favorable one sometime between Dec 6-10th. I remember in the '90s, when Decembers were particularly horrid, I didnt even expect good things before Christmas, snow-wise. So waiting til Dec 10th is NOT an eternity

[Chicago Storm]

LOL he posted CFS torch maps in late October saying the country would roast in November. And the Great Lakes and northeast will finish the month COLDER than normal!

lol indeed. The CFS actually did alright, the only issue is everything was pushed a bit west. Even with that, most of the Central and Western US is above normal...as was predicted. The only issue is the East, where there were colder anomalies due the the aforementioned setup being pulled west. Not bad for a monthly model...

[Ajdos]

Ugh..Why am I getting flashbacks of last year :/....

[magoos0728]

Per Skilling--

I wouldn't be surprised to at some point in coming days to see an evolution in the forecast toward colder temps than are being currently forecast in the days ahead and at some point reintroduction of colder temps despite the warm-up predict

ed next weekend for the opening days of meteorological winter (the 3 month Dec through February period. Both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices are negative, while at the same time, Greenland blocking is to re-establish---all cold signals which can and often do precede our weather forecast models pick-up of a a shift to a colder pattern. Here's a plot of the "AO" index driven by the Weather Service's global GFS model. When in its negative phase---as it is in this forecast, the index suggests the building of frigid arctic air.

When I hear the sounds of torch coming from this guy's mouth, that's when I'll start planning my February garden. Until then...staying patient and not jumping.

Yet.

[Ajdos]

Per Skilling--

I wouldn't be surprised to at some point in coming days to see an evolution in the forecast toward colder temps than are being currently forecast in the days ahead and at some point reintroduction of colder temps despite the warm-up predict

ed next weekend for the opening days of meteorological winter (the 3 month Dec through February period. Both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices are negative, while at the same time, Greenland blocking is to re-establish---all cold signals which can and often do precede our weather forecast models pick-up of a a shift to a colder pattern. Here's a plot of the "AO" index driven by the Weather Service's global GFS model. When in its negative phase---as it is in this forecast, the index suggests the building of frigid arctic air.

When I hear the sounds of torch coming from this guy's mouth, that's when I'll start planning my February garden. Until then...staying patient and not jumping.

Yet.

Agree, but then we got the guy who attacks every Meteorologist out there and their forecasts; WXRISK....DT....he has a big mouth. He is good at what he does, but the attacks towards other mets is very unprofessional!

I think he cannot stand HM.. LOL

[Tropical]

Pretty good. What is it saying for December?

It is calling for a torch in December.

Sent from my iPad

[michsnowfreak]

Ugh..Why am I getting flashbacks of last year :/....

Its probably just nervousness, last winter sucked, and its the most recent in our minds, so every little thing will make you say "oh please not another 2011-12". Three of the four winters prior to last year featured 65"+ snow, last year barely surpassed 25". It was unexpected, and a shock to the system. But it's over and done with, and we are in a new season.

Having very little November snow is nothing to be scared of. DTW is at 0.4" in Nov, and 33 of the 132 Novembers on record saw LESS snow than that! Which places this November merely in the 25 percentile for snowfall. There is now a very strong signal that December will start off mild.....but no need to compare anything to last year. Last November finished in +5.1F at DTW, where this November looks to finish between -1F and -2F. Last November was the wettest Nov on record (6.00") and if nothing else falls, this will be the 7th driest (0.72"). Snowfall both Novembers (0.6" in 2011, 0.4" in 2012) was measurable but miniscule. North American snowcover is running above normal this year, so thats always a good sign.

[michsnowfreak]

Pretty good. What is it saying for December?

It changes every day...the latest has mild December. I check the daily updates on the stormvista models page and its laughable. One day it calls for a much colder than normal December, the next day it calls for a torch. The lastest runs, fwiw (and that isnt much imo) has a much warmer than normal December but an even more impressively much colder than normal January.

[Hoosier]

It changes every day...the latest has mild December. I check the daily updates on the stormvista models page and its laughable. One day it calls for a much colder than normal December, the next day it calls for a torch. The lastest runs, fwiw (and that isnt much imo) has a much warmer than normal December but an even more impressively much colder than normal January.

I don't follow it religiously but I wonder if the late month forecasts for the following month tend to score better. Would make sense since the timeframe in question is closer. That one above which did a halfway decent job for Nov was from October 30.

[Hoosier]

The climate issue can be touchy. If you guys want to keep discussing the decadal trends for specific cities then probably best to start a new thread. Of course anything that gets too deep into the mechanisms or what could happen in the future would be better off for CC.

[JoMo]

I don't follow it religiously but I wonder if the late month forecasts for the following month tend to score better. Would make sense since the timeframe in question is closer. That one above which did a halfway decent job for Nov was from October 30.

Seems to change based on what's happening during the "Initial conditions" of the week used.

You can see what it was predicting for Dec using conditions from Oct 26th to Nov 4th.

[Jonger]

Seems to change based on what's happening during the "Initial conditions" of the week used.

You can see what it was predicting for Dec using conditions from Oct 26th to Nov 4th.

This is exactly what it does... It samples day 15 of the NCEP models and prints that for the next month.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I have no intention's of bringing a AGW debate here. So I understand not going down this path in favor of board peace. I am a snow lover before any other weather. I mostly shared and wanted to see how others felt because the November blues took over again. It was the first November since I have been an active weather enthusiast online, basically since 2006 that I got excited over snow chances because of the favorable blocking scheme and quick build up of snow cover.

And again we will likely be shut out, but tomorrow, there is an outside shot at light snow flurries to an inch if things go right.

That would be ironic and spirit lifting.

I don't need a foot of LEK snow to have this be a fun hobby to be apart of.

But some of us have seen some rather rapid changes in the wrong direction. But if we keep this -NAO, 60-65% of the winter til March 15th, STL will get some snow for sure.

[KokomoWX]

From JB

[daddylonglegs]

Lets be honest... These models can be crap at times and very accurate... Pick and choose your poison. Lets just say mild air is probably likely in early December...

[michsnowfreak]

I have no intention's of bringing a AGW debate here. So I understand not going down this path in favor of board peace. I am a snow lover before any other weather. I mostly shared and wanted to see how others felt because the November blues took over again. It was the first November since I have been an active weather enthusiast online, basically since 2006 that I got excited over snow chances because of the favorable blocking scheme and quick build up of snow cover.

And again we will likely be shut out, but tomorrow, there is an outside shot at light snow flurries to an inch if things go right.

That would be ironic and spirit lifting.

I don't need a foot of LEK snow to have this be a fun hobby to be apart of.

But some of us have seen some rather rapid changes in the wrong direction. But if we keep this -NAO, 60-65% of the winter til March 15th, STL will get some snow for sure.

Keep in mind, even up here well north of you, while seasonal snowfall has INCREASED the last decade, November snowfall has decreased, but not that November has ever been a snowy month to begin with. DTW has had just 0.4" of snow this Nov, and thats already more than 33 other Novembers since 1880. Dont know how or why, maybe its just weird luck, who knows (I shouldnt need to clarify but I will lol...if increasing seasonal snowfall comes with a price of decreasing November snowfall...I WILL TAKE IT!). So it is far from a surprise that STL Nov snow has been scarce to nonexistent recently. So as not to stray from the long-term aspect of this thread, I say good luck not only tomorrow, but the rest of the winter as well. STL and TOR seem to be two areas that have really lacked that impressive winter (for their standards), so hopefully EVERYONE shares the wealth in 2012-13!

[michsnowfreak]

From JB

I take all cfs maps with a grain of salt, but that sure looks a lot prettier than the ones torchartie posts!

[csnavywx]

It's going to be very hard to get any decent cold/snow with that raging GoA low that's being advertised, even with a -AO and -NAO. Pac Jet cuts off any avenue of approach for decent cP or cA air masses.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Keep in mind, even up here well north of you, while seasonal snowfall has INCREASED the last decade, November snowfall has decreased, but not that November has ever been a snowy month to begin with. DTW has had just 0.4" of snow this Nov, and thats already more than 33 other Novembers since 1880. Dont know how or why, maybe its just weird luck, who knows (I shouldnt need to clarify but I will lol...if increasing seasonal snowfall comes with a price of decreasing November snowfall...I WILL TAKE IT!). So it is far from a surprise that STL Nov snow has been scarce to nonexistent recently. So as not to stray from the long-term aspect of this thread, I say good luck not only tomorrow, but the rest of the winter as well. STL and TOR seem to be two areas that have really lacked that impressive winter (for their standards), so hopefully EVERYONE shares the wealth in 2012-13!

I have a feeling the lakes are going to do well in sustained cold, snow totals, and snow cover durations.

Ironically while STL does worse than TOR historically. Both are kinda in synoptic hell so to speak, could probably throw Pittsburgh in as well.

I think the odd's are stacked for the along and North of I-80 getting a storm that is a sub I-70 storm in MO and hits my region decently and it curves more North towards your region.

Like this one. We were forecasted for 7-13 inches in my city and we missed the 6+ inches by 20-30 miles. I left work the night the UL came by and it was supposed to be our saving grace and drop a half foot. I drove 50 miles SE right into heavy snow and from Brownish Green to whiteout and a half foot real quick, with no internet or radar I drove home slow but so excited.

About 12 miles from home the snow let up considerably, roads improved, and grass popped out real quick, by 8 miles from home down to flurries. Incredible gradient.

It's going to be very hard to get any decent cold/snow with that raging GoA low that's being advertised, even with a -AO and -NAO. Pac Jet cuts off any avenue of approach for decent cP or cA air masses.

The 00z GFS from Thursday(day4) on to about day 11 basically is a torch for most of us, except the far Northern regions with a backdoor front but nothing to take the warm Southerly flow out for most of us.

The GFS is probably to cold with 850s as it stands with the consistent flow, but it is also December during this.

[michsnowfreak]

I loved that pre-Christmas storm, it was a sparkly winter wonderland just in time for Christmas. But 15"+ in SE MI? I wish . Had 8.5" imby, 8.9" DTW.

And I think everyones pretty much banking on a warm first week of December. If its not it will be a huge surprise. It is thereafter the talk of fun times possibly starting. And on cue the end of the GFS run is cold.

[Chicago WX]

Scraped together 3.0" with the Dec 2004 storm here. Better than March 2008 though. That one still stings a bit. Would have put LAF north of 50" for the season if it would've just NW trended like I hoped it would. Wasn't meant to be...never saw a flake. CMH of course got crushed.