Geos Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Tom Skilling posted this GFS OP 500mb graphic showing significant blocking between the 21-25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Gotta wonder if what we are seeing is the start of new trend/pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 were definitely heading into a more interesting pattern...I would have preferred it held off for another month or so but hopefully it sticks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 were definitely heading into a more interesting pattern...I would have preferred it held off for another month or so but hopefully it sticks Won't. 12z GFS caved to Euro in the longer ranges. Big boob pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Won't. 12z GFS caved to Euro in the longer ranges. Big boob pattern. FWIW - the early October torch never materialized. ...Well maybe for one day, but cold is definitely winning out over the warmth this month and did most of last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I hope you are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 If anyone is expecting a torch starting around 10/22 they will be dissapointed. Why? Well a strong -NAO will develop and that will supress any ridging that tries to develop. So while there may be a deep NW trough there could also be trough over the lakes and Northeast as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 The GFS didn't change at all pre-truncation. Created a truncated timeframe block which was the only thing keeping down a torch. The ECMWF most likely failed. Ridge pattern depends on how the allignment comes. Timeframe makes these maps garbage can worthy however. Ensembles have been showing a -EPO/-PNA pattern(which the ECMWF is also tardy on). English please for us idiots. Euro definnitely caved to the GFS as far as the strength of the low/midwest/eastern trough next week. Through 240 it's really not a warm pattern for anyone around here in the least. Def warm up early next week but no biggie. What happens after that is anyone's guess. My guess is we can't avoid some of that -pna it has swinging thru in the long range. Torch? Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I will add that the euro has a bias for forecasting too much of a -PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I will add that the euro has a bias for forecasting too much of a -PNA There is going to be a -pna and a south/east ridge. Sorry, it seems inevitable. How strong either feature is is up for debate. For once the frickin CFS agrees with this. http://origin.cpc.nc...1010.NAsfcT.gif http://origin.cpc.nc...1010.NAsfcT.gif Euro and GFS now on the same page out to 240, it's just a question of how strong the -nao is, how strong the -pna is. I'd take those last two cfs maps in a heartbeat. Someone nearby would get snow... The nicest thing about all the longer range maps is there is a TON more cold air in Canada than there was this time last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 I don't see any real amount of sustained warmth looking at the NAO forecast... A SE ridge combined with plenty of cold air in Canada is what we need for an active winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 I don't see any real amount of sustained warmth looking at the NAO forecast... A SE ridge combined with plenty of cold air in Canada is what we need for an active winter! Agreed. Maybe 1-2 days of above normal and that's it. Also looks like an active pattern shaping up as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Welp, You can see where CPC thinks the active storm tracck is going to set up in the timeframe we are talking about. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 The cold cross polar flow is gone. This "cold" reminds me of last October's pacific junk from the 2nd half of that month.......... If you're wrong, we are going to have some bulletin board material for you this winter. You already said with the cold snap a couple weeks ago that the models couldn't handle the -PNA well, and that the cold would stay up near the Canadian border. Oops, two highs in the 40s in early October tell me otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 If you're wrong, we are going to have some bulletin board material for you this winter. You already said with the cold snap a couple weeks ago that the models couldn't handle the -PNA well, and that the cold would stay up near the Canadian border. Oops, two highs in the 40s in early October tell me otherwise. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 If you're wrong, we are going to have some bulletin board material for you this winter. You already said with the cold snap a couple weeks ago that the models couldn't handle the -PNA well, and that the cold would stay up near the Canadian border. Oops, two highs in the 40s in early October tell me otherwise. Reference the conveyor belts and you will see exactly what he's talking about. He's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 If I am wrong? The cross polar flow is leaving right now. It is already gone. The trough for next weak is of pacific origin which teleconnects to the NAO. What happens after that ends is up in the air. The current run was predicted by me in late September as the -EPO signaled cross polar flow, the key was when it would get here, would we wait or not(we didn't have to wait). Now it is of pacific flow. Models do indeed struggle with PNA by overamping the PNA in the longer ranges. I'm not saying I think you're wrong here, but I am saying that you were blasting the models for being overzealous with the trough and cold in early October, when they really weren't. There was a small NW trend with the early season snow system in the Northern Plains, but the trough came similarly as advertised. It seems all your posts are doomsday about how the pattern this fall is similar to last fall. I'm sorry, some of the features may be similar, but the results can't be more different, and it's unlikely it will continue to be similar to last fall/winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 With regards to the cross polar flow. You don't need a cross polar flow to get cold enough air into the Midwest to have snow or below normal temperatures! This month is quite a bit different from last October so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 That wasn't my point, my point was the pattern coming for the week is very similiar to the pattern after a typical la nina Octotorch we had last year in many respects. Alot of cloudy days and warm nights. I guess you forgot about the big bomb already, it was before the freak east coast snowstorm they wished they never had lol. Who knows what happens after that as we head in the last 3rd of the month. Way to early. I don't see it being that warm... Especially after Thursday, not sure what models you are looking at but the ones I am looking at don't show it being terribly warm after Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Damn fine cut off the 0z EURO is progging in the med. range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Damn fine cut off the 0z EURO is progging in the med. range. GFSx/ MRF has it as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 be nice to tap some of the torch out west on the end of the euro. wouldn't mind some 70's and then have the bottom fall out in nov for some goood hunting weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 GFSx/ MRF has it as well: 12z GEM has it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Transient cool shots! ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Transient cool shots! ugh It is October, not January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 It is October, not January... Transient cool shots bud, it's over. We'll hope for the best in 2013-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Transient cool shots bud, it's over. We'll hope for the best in 2013-14. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 It is October, not January... Agreed. The question I have yet to resolve (I haven't had the time to do the analogs), is what did the past winter's look like with a +AMO and -PDO with a neutral ENSO? My guess is that we are starting to see the early winter pattern setting in as we speak. If true, I think the storm track will set up between the Appalachians and the western Great Lakes area. Transient cold shots would not be a bad thing as long as few storms could feed into that colder air. Up here our biggest snowfalls tend to happen when the air temp is between 24-29°. I hope I get the time to do the analogs this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 nice shot of cold hitting the northern plains on the end of the euro.. Might get sparty crying for his cigrits again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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