Long Term Disco

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Well, JB seems to think winter will really get going come the December 8 timeframe. Tom Skilling seems to agree, opining in his blog today that forecasts will likely start to turn colder in the coming days thanks to a developing negative NAO and Greenland block.

[Geos]

Well, JB seems to think winter will really get going come the December 8 timeframe. Tom Skilling seems to agree, opining in his blog today that forecasts will likely start to turn colder in the coming days thanks to a developing negative NAO and Greenland block.

Yeah I just caught Skilling's post:

He's probably got some ideas to what might happen in early December...

I wouldn't be surprised to at some point in coming days to see an evolution in the forecast toward colder temps than are being currently forecast in the days ahead and at some point reintroduction of colder temps despite the warm-up predicted next weekend for the opening days of meteorological winter (the 3 month Dec through February period. Both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic...

Oscillation (AO) indices are negative, while at the same time, Greenland blocking is to re-establish---all cold signals which can and often do precede our weather forecast models pick-up of a a shift to a colder pattern. Here's a plot of the "AO" index driven by the Weather Service's global GFS model. When in its negative phase---as it is in this forecast, the index suggests the building of frigid arctic air.

[OHweather]

For the second day in a row, the GFS ensembles are forecasting a weakening of the -WPO during the second week of December:

This would potentially allow for the strong high near the Aleutians and west coast trough, which will cause a moderation trend in the mid part of the country this week, to weaken and potentially allow for a more favorable Pacific pattern to take hold during the second week of December.

The op European and European ensembles do show the northeastern Asia polar vortex weakening/shifting west some by day 10, which is a step in the right direction:

In addition, there is fair to good agreement in the NAO and AO remaining at least somewhat negative into the 2nd week of December, with no significant moves towards positive yet on the GFS ensemble forecasts with the AO...although there is a trend towards a more neutral NAO the second week of December:

There has been a buildup of convection over the past couple of days near and just west of the dateline on the south side of the equator in the tropical Pacific. We'll see if this manifests into the MJO pulse the models have been keying on for over a week now...if it does, then the MJO may be in eastern/central US friendly phases 1-2 in the second to third week of December as the -WPO attempts to relax:

So, we still appear to have a window for a nice shot of winter just before mid-December, however it is still too early to make a conclusive call on whether or not that will happen, I want to see some more consistancy in the breakdown of the -WPO and the development of an MJO pulse before going all in.

After that, if we see the MJO either weaken or propigate east into phases 3-4+ after mid-December, that may coincide with a period of warmer/less wintry weather that I have been worried about into January. I'm not an expert on this stuff but signs are kind of pointing in that direction.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The Lakes, especially the Northern regions of the Lakes vs the Ohio Valley are two different regions. But the OV is more cold and snow friendly the further East you are and the less governing you get from the Pacific. And the more likely places in Ohio and Indiana get LEK vs regions West. Also with out the lakes just a couple hundred miles can make a huge difference in winter like from Des Moines to STL. Or even KC to STL.

Early season snow here has been nuked off the map. And late season snow as well, for the most part. This year is actually going to finish below normal. It is currently 47.6F about -1.0F below normal. Well the 1981-2010 normal is 46.8F. The cold 90s period was likely influenced a bit by the Volcano that erupted. Not saying all of it was. But the correlation is there. On this graph below, this November here may not finish below that average. It will likely be right on it. We had snow in 2008 and 2004. But more than anything, it's the flurries. Unlike regions in the lakes. We used to get lot's of days in the mid to upper 30s and snow showers and heavy bursts of flurries if there is such of things. Lot's of rain to cold and flurries, or the big Upper level lows that would bring those early season huge pockets of cold mid level temps and the early to mid November Sun would help us get some snow bursts.

The other major change is snow cover duration. Snow accumulation has been pretty consistent from cold to warm periods here. But snow cover duration has radically been altered. I have looked all over for any data on such a thing but I guess it hasn't been charted for STL. But even compared to mid 90 and early 90s we would get 25-30 days of snow cover easy, some winters easily 40-60 days. Some of those extreme winters likely 61-70 days with snow cover when we would go wall to wall cold in Dec-Feb.

Now, even during 20-30 inch snow winters, if we get 15 days with snow cover it's a good winter. Craptacular winters with 14 inches or less can give us 4-8 days of snow cover. Last winter gave us 3 or 4 days with snow cover.

The last top 10 snowiest November was 1980. So it has been 32 years since we have seen at least 4.5 inches of snow in November.

October of 1998 and 1993 both Measured a trace of snow. 1993 was on Halloween, I was 10 years old and remember the heavy flurry action of that night and how cool it was. I do not remember 1998.

The last measurable snow in October was in 1925.

There have only been 5 Octobers with measurable snow fall here. All of them were on or before 1925.

The last top 10 coldest November was 1996. Before that 1976.

The last top 10 snowiest March was 1989 and 1978. for 11.0 and 15.2 inches respectively. Before that 1960, 1858, 1949, and 1947 before it goes much further back.

The last top 10 coldest March was 1978, followed by 1965.

November 1941 - 2011 Average = 45.64 degF

November 1941 - 2011 Trend = 0.54 degF / Decade

March 1941 - 2011 Average = 44.70 degF

March 1941 - 2012 Trend = 0.82 degF / Decade

Like I said above. Overall snowfall has declined, that is a given since the 1960s-70s were pretty wildly cold and snowy here. But periods in the past have also been less snowy, but notably not as warm either. And this corresponds pretty well to Columbia, MO, which is typically snowier than here. But it's not some heat island artifact. I am not even sure how much of one even exists given where our airport is but we haven't gone below zero there since 1998, maybe once in 2011? I am not sure. I know the suburbs recently mostly went to -3 or -4F one night.

I personally think my area will see more of this. But I am not writing this to get into a global warming debate. I am writing it to really exemplify how extremely different area's are that are so close in latitude.

St. Louis- 38.37N

While Chicago and Detroit are 41-42N.

Whether by snowfall totals, cold anomaly's, cold records, or snow cover duration we have had no combo reach anything close to any sort of "great" winter or early or late winter. Only snowfall total's has really made it up there. And while that month might be top ten. Snow cover duration that season wouldn't crack top 30 at least.

I get that places like Det, Chi, GB, and so on get more, longer snow cover and all that. But vs our own records here it would be nice to have a string of very snowy winters or even a 15 day run with snow on the ground.

30-40 years ago we were below freezing for a month and had huge back to back to back snow months. things like -NAO, -AO, +PNA were thrown around. we had two years in 09-11 have amazing tele-connectors and no dice.

I would like it if others could share their local experience since the lakes/Ohio Valley is such a diverse weather region during late Fall- early Spring.

I think more than anything the last few days reading over these boards have really set in how much more has to come together for my area to get snow and snow cover. It's really hard for snow enthusiasts that are 30-45 years old. I am 30. And I remember winters going back to 1988 or so. While not the crazy 1970s. I do remember having snow cover, not always more than 2-3 inches, but it would be around for 8, 10, 12 days, warm up, then another 5-8 incher would give us another big cold spell, clippers, flurries, and another 10-15 days of snow cover. Then the late 90s happened and it just changed.

So taking this hobby from my childhood to adulthood and going from one type of climate to seemingly another one that sucks the big one, well sucks the big one.

[beavis1729]

* Hoosier or other mods - please split off the last 2 posts into a separate thread if they don't belong in the long-term discussion thread. *

Friv, I hear what you're saying...and it's hard to deny the changes over time at STL.

In the Chicago suburbs, the most I can say with certainty is that the 1970s and 1980s winters, overall, were much more harsh. When I say "harsh", I mean colder with more snow cover...not necessarily more snowfall. But as you mentioned, we all realize that the Midwest as a whole saw harsh winter during the 1970s and 1980s. For example, Chicago had 100 consecutive days of snow cover in the 1978-79 winter. While I certainly wish those winters were somewhat typical, the data suggests that such winters are extremely (!!!) rare. So, we need to be careful about using that winter as a measuring stick for other years.

I can't really say much about the character of Chicago winters prior to the 1970s...although you'd have to think they were slightly colder overall vs. today, with similar snowfall. Even 1-3F can make a big difference on snow cover in a particular winter, all else being equal.

I can't find much data for snow cover in Chicago...and unfortunately, it doesn't help much to look at the climatology of subzero days to see how trends have changed over time. This is because (1) the official observing site has moved over time from near the lakefront to a bit further inland...and (2) even if you use Midway Airport data going back to 1928, there is UHI contamination over time. Although, if you actually live in the city (STL or Chicago), you experience UHI directly, so it's not much of a contamination to what you personally experience. I'm using the word contamination because the UHI has become more pronounced over time. I'm not trying to say UHI should be ignored...it just makes it harder to compare data over time vs. other nearby non-UHI areas.

So, in summary, I agree that it really does feel like winters have become less harsh over time...but it's hard to know if it's a short-term shift or something more permanent. I certainly hope it's the former! The only really chilly months in the last 20 years in Chicago have been January 1994, December 2000, February 2007, and January 2009. That's not very impressive for cold lovers.

[Tropical]

This is really starting to look great for December. I like the signals I'm seeing.

[daddylonglegs]

Maybe record heat coming in Dec?

[Tropical]

Maybe record heat coming in Dec?

March 2012 redux in December 2012. Lots of 50/60s for the subforum.

[michsnowfreak]

13.4" in 1936-37 (12.9")

13.7" in 1948-49

15.1" in 1881-82 (13.2")

15.2" in 1918-19

15.4" in 1965-66

Josh might want to double check those. They came from DTX's website. The numbers I've got for 1936-37 and 1881-82 from NCDC for Detroit are different. Those from NCDC are in ( ).

I noticed a few years ago (software upgrade?) some of the pre-1940 months snowfall got a bit messed up in the DTX top 20 lists. I emailed them once and thought I heard something like the interns went over the old snowfall numbers and a few needed to be corrected or something like that? But looking at the climate section all the correct numbers are there. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/cms.php?n=decadetable . The correct numbers are the ones from NCDC (I added up the 1936-37 totals to check and indeed, 12.9" not 13.7").

[michsnowfreak]

Uneventful spells happen. Doesn't mean the whole winter is a bust, lol. What I try to do is occupy my time with something else during these periods so when I check back in a few weeks, we could be talking about a storm, if not, well go back to what you were doing. Rinse. Repeat. Profit.

Actually...and Ive said this many times before....we WANT the boringness now. All winters go through active and quiet periods, and your odds are much better if you go through the quiet periods before you actually get IN to winter. No guarentees, but better odds.

A good example is 1977-78. TONS of snow from mid-Nov to mid-Dec, then a quiet 2nd half of Dec...then Jan was snowmageddon capped off by THE benchmark midwest blizzard. But winter after the blizzard was DULLSVILLE. Only about 8 inches TOTAL snow fell at DTW the ENTIRE rest of the winter after the Jan 26th blizzard. But the region was locked in bitter cold and deep snowpack through most of March. Someone like me would have LOVED it as the deep snowpack didnt budge, but for those simply always looking for a storm, there was absolutely NOTHING exciting the entire rest of the winter after the Jan 26th blizzard.

[michsnowfreak]

Well, JB seems to think winter will really get going come the December 8 timeframe. Tom Skilling seems to agree, opining in his blog today that forecasts will likely start to turn colder in the coming days thanks to a developing negative NAO and Greenland block.

Nice. I can never take anything JB says seriously. He and Brett Anderson remind me of the snow miser and heat miser from that Christmas movie. No matter WHAT jb will always find reason to say cold/snow, brett will always find reason to say torch. But Tom Skilling is another story entirely. I put a lot more faith in things when HE says them, so this is good news imo.

[michsnowfreak]

or the NAO/AO go positive but the pacific changes and leads toward a more wintry pattern. Atlantic blocking looking fairly tame.

I didnt realize it until I read the LOT winter outlook Hoosier posted the other day, but they had the NAO for the last several winters listed...and Feb 2011 had a +NAO. I need not remind folks that Feb 2011 Chicago saw one of its biggest blizzards on record and Detroit one of its snowiest months on record. A -NAO is CERTAINLY not imperative here like it is, say, in the midatlantic.

[michsnowfreak]

* Hoosier or other mods - please split off the last 2 posts into a separate thread if they don't belong in the long-term discussion thread. *

Friv, I hear what you're saying...and it's hard to deny the changes over time at STL.

In the Chicago suburbs, the most I can say with certainty is that the 1970s and 1980s winters, overall, were much more harsh. When I say "harsh", I mean colder with more snow cover...not necessarily more snowfall. But as you mentioned, we all realize that the Midwest as a whole saw harsh winter during the 1970s and 1980s. For example, Chicago had 100 consecutive days of snow cover in the 1978-79 winter. While I certainly wish those winters were somewhat typical, the data suggests that such winters are extremely (!!!) rare. So, we need to be careful about using that winter as a measuring stick for other years.

I can't really say much about the character of Chicago winters prior to the 1970s...although you'd have to think they were slightly colder overall vs. today, with similar snowfall. Even 1-3F can make a big difference on snow cover in a particular winter, all else being equal.

I can't find much data for snow cover in Chicago...and unfortunately, it doesn't help much to look at the climatology of subzero days to see how trends have changed over time. This is because (1) the official observing site has moved over time from near the lakefront to a bit further inland...and (2) even if you use Midway Airport data going back to 1928, there is UHI contamination over time. Although, if you actually live in the city (STL or Chicago), you experience UHI directly, so it's not much of a contamination to what you personally experience. I'm using the word contamination because the UHI has become more pronounced over time. I'm not trying to say UHI should be ignored...it just makes it harder to compare data over time vs. other nearby non-UHI areas.

So, in summary, I agree that it really does feel like winters have become less harsh over time...but it's hard to know if it's a short-term shift or something more permanent. I certainly hope it's the former! The only really chilly months in the last 20 years in Chicago have been January 1994, December 2000, February 2007, and January 2009. That's not very impressive for cold lovers.

My "memory" of winters only goes to the early-mid 1990s here....but my knowledge of them goes to the 1870s lol. Every winter is different than the last, so while averages arent what you should EXPECT, they do show any trends.

*******

Here are the average snowcover days for Detroit since the 1910s. I computed these averages myself a while back to look for snowcover trends as I too thought perhaps snowcover was decreasing though snowfall was not. There is a MASSIVE change here from the 1990s to 2000s considering we are a pretty consistent climate.

Note...this is the OFFICIAL Detroit data...most surrounding areas will report many more snowcover days than the actual airport/station. Also, this is days with 1-INCH OR MORE of snow on the ground....which does NOT account for days with a snowdepth of T. And this area can see anywhere from 15 to as much as 50 additional days with a snowdepth of T each winter

1910s - 57 days

1920s - 51 days

1930s - 42 days

1940s - 49 days

1950s - 47 days

1960s - 56 days

1970s - 57 days

1980s - 47 days

1990s - 38 days

2000s - 53 days

Notice that snowcover does NOT correlate with snowfall. The 1960s saw well-below normal snowfall (31.8") but above average snowcover (56 days) when you look at the longterm average near 41" snowfall and 50 days snowcover.

At Detroit, the "barest" winter on record was 1936-37 when only 10 days had 1"+ snowcover (and several of them were technically probably under an inch a little) and the "whitest" winter was 1977-78 when 91 days had 1"+ snowcover and 121 days of snow on the ground (which means in addition to the 91 days of 1"+ cover DTW saw 30 additional days saw a T snowcover).

[michsnowfreak]

Maybe record heat coming in Dec?

LOL he posted CFS torch maps in late October saying the country would roast in November. And the Great Lakes and northeast will finish the month COLDER than normal!

[Jonger]

The Lakes, especially the Northern regions of the Lakes vs the Ohio Valley are two different regions. But the OV is more cold and snow friendly the further East you are and the less governing you get from the Pacific. And the more likely places in Ohio and Indiana get LEK vs regions West. Also with out the lakes just a couple hundred miles can make a huge difference in winter like from Des Moines to STL. Or even KC to STL.

Early season snow here has been nuked off the map. And late season snow as well, for the most part. This year is actually going to finish below normal. It is currently 47.6F about -1.0F below normal. Well the 1981-2010 normal is 46.8F. The cold 90s period was likely influenced a bit by the Volcano that erupted. Not saying all of it was. But the correlation is there. On this graph below, this November here may not finish below that average. It will likely be right on it. We had snow in 2008 and 2004. But more than anything, it's the flurries. Unlike regions in the lakes. We used to get lot's of days in the mid to upper 30s and snow showers and heavy bursts of flurries if there is such of things. Lot's of rain to cold and flurries, or the big Upper level lows that would bring those early season huge pockets of cold mid level temps and the early to mid November Sun would help us get some snow bursts.

The other major change is snow cover duration. Snow accumulation has been pretty consistent from cold to warm periods here. But snow cover duration has radically been altered. I have looked all over for any data on such a thing but I guess it hasn't been charted for STL. But even compared to mid 90 and early 90s we would get 25-30 days of snow cover easy, some winters easily 40-60 days. Some of those extreme winters likely 61-70 days with snow cover when we would go wall to wall cold in Dec-Feb.

Now, even during 20-30 inch snow winters, if we get 15 days with snow cover it's a good winter. Craptacular winters with 14 inches or less can give us 4-8 days of snow cover. Last winter gave us 3 or 4 days with snow cover.

The last top 10 snowiest November was 1980. So it has been 32 years since we have seen at least 4.5 inches of snow in November.

October of 1998 and 1993 both Measured a trace of snow. 1993 was on Halloween, I was 10 years old and remember the heavy flurry action of that night and how cool it was. I do not remember 1998.

The last measurable snow in October was in 1925.

There have only been 5 Octobers with measurable snow fall here. All of them were on or before 1925.

The last top 10 coldest November was 1996. Before that 1976.

The last top 10 snowiest March was 1989 and 1978. for 11.0 and 15.2 inches respectively. Before that 1960, 1858, 1949, and 1947 before it goes much further back.

The last top 10 coldest March was 1978, followed by 1965.

November 1941 - 2011 Average = 45.64 degF

November 1941 - 2011 Trend = 0.54 degF / Decade

March 1941 - 2011 Average = 44.70 degF

March 1941 - 2012 Trend = 0.82 degF / Decade

Like I said above. Overall snowfall has declined, that is a given since the 1960s-70s were pretty wildly cold and snowy here. But periods in the past have also been less snowy, but notably not as warm either. And this corresponds pretty well to Columbia, MO, which is typically snowier than here. But it's not some heat island artifact. I am not even sure how much of one even exists given where our airport is but we haven't gone below zero there since 1998, maybe once in 2011? I am not sure. I know the suburbs recently mostly went to -3 or -4F one night.

I personally think my area will see more of this. But I am not writing this to get into a global warming debate. I am writing it to really exemplify how extremely different area's are that are so close in latitude.

St. Louis- 38.37N

While Chicago and Detroit are 41-42N.

Whether by snowfall totals, cold anomaly's, cold records, or snow cover duration we have had no combo reach anything close to any sort of "great" winter or early or late winter. Only snowfall total's has really made it up there. And while that month might be top ten. Snow cover duration that season wouldn't crack top 30 at least.

I get that places like Det, Chi, GB, and so on get more, longer snow cover and all that. But vs our own records here it would be nice to have a string of very snowy winters or even a 15 day run with snow on the ground.

30-40 years ago we were below freezing for a month and had huge back to back to back snow months. things like -NAO, -AO, +PNA were thrown around. we had two years in 09-11 have amazing tele-connectors and no dice.

I would like it if others could share their local experience since the lakes/Ohio Valley is such a diverse weather region during late Fall- early Spring.

I think more than anything the last few days reading over these boards have really set in how much more has to come together for my area to get snow and snow cover. It's really hard for snow enthusiasts that are 30-45 years old. I am 30. And I remember winters going back to 1988 or so. While not the crazy 1970s. I do remember having snow cover, not always more than 2-3 inches, but it would be around for 8, 10, 12 days, warm up, then another 5-8 incher would give us another big cold spell, clippers, flurries, and another 10-15 days of snow cover. Then the late 90s happened and it just changed.

So taking this hobby from my childhood to adulthood and going from one type of climate to seemingly another one that sucks the big one, well sucks the big one.

Many places in the great lakes had their best decade in 130 years. You need to move.

I'm not trying to be a Dick either, with the hobby you have.... Living in a subtropical region isn't probably the best. Everything south of Cincinnati to New York is considered subtropical and not continental koppen climate classification.

Sorry for the bad grammar, I'm going on 2 hours of sleep. I just rode 80 miles in 15 inches of snow last night in northern Michigan.

Jon

[The_Global_Warmer]

March 2012 redux in December 2012. Lots of 50/60s for the subforum.

With a sustained -nao models in the long range are likely not picking up on back door cold fronts with smaller vorts rotating around the main vort with the larger PV anomaly getting blocked up.

So a gradient will set up. With such an amplified zonal flow over the conus all the way to at least the Canadian border the warmth will be hard to knock down.

Probably from you to Detroit or so will be a battle ground.

however, unless the pacific is totally wrong everyone will have a few days of torch.

[SpartyOn]

I didnt realize it until I read the LOT winter outlook Hoosier posted the other day, but they had the NAO for the last several winters listed...and Feb 2011 had a +NAO. I need not remind folks that Feb 2011 Chicago saw one of its biggest blizzards on record and Detroit one of its snowiest months on record. A -NAO is CERTAINLY not imperative here like it is, say, in the midatlantic.

Great point on the NAO!

BTW...this "torch" way overdone IMO. Heres to a few days in the upper 40s. Nothing major.

[IWXwx]

It's no surprise that the CFSv2 is showing positive temperature anomalies in the 6-10 day range. The models are all showing warmth during that time period. But the CFS monthlies, lol.

[michsnowfreak]

It's no surprise that the CFSv2 is showing positive temperature anomalies in the 6-10 day range. The models are all showing warmth during that time period. But the CFS monthlies, lol.

This mornings CFS monthlies (each day has a new run, one for each of the next 5 months) has my area +5F to +6F for December and -6F to -7F for January. That would translate, at DTW, to a mean as high as 36F for Dec and as low as 18F for Jan

[beavis1729]

My "memory" of winters only goes to the early-mid 1990s here....but my knowledge of them goes to the 1870s lol. Every winter is different than the last, so while averages arent what you should EXPECT, they do show any trends.

*******

Here are the average snowcover days for Detroit since the 1910s. I computed these averages myself a while back to look for snowcover trends as I too thought perhaps snowcover was decreasing though snowfall was not. There is a MASSIVE change here from the 1990s to 2000s considering we are a pretty consistent climate.

Note...this is the OFFICIAL Detroit data...most surrounding areas will report many more snowcover days than the actual airport/station. Also, this is days with 1-INCH OR MORE of snow on the ground....which does NOT account for days with a snowdepth of T. And this area can see anywhere from 15 to as much as 50 additional days with a snowdepth of T each winter

1910s - 57 days

1920s - 51 days

1930s - 42 days

1940s - 49 days

1950s - 47 days

1960s - 56 days

1970s - 57 days

1980s - 47 days

1990s - 38 days

2000s - 53 days

Notice that snowcover does NOT correlate with snowfall. The 1960s saw well-below normal snowfall (31.8") but above average snowcover (56 days) when you look at the longterm average near 41" snowfall and 50 days snowcover.

At Detroit, the "barest" winter on record was 1936-37 when only 10 days had 1"+ snowcover (and several of them were technically probably under an inch a little) and the "whitest" winter was 1977-78 when 91 days had 1"+ snowcover and 121 days of snow on the ground (which means in addition to the 91 days of 1"+ cover DTW saw 30 additional days saw a T snowcover).

Thanks Josh. I'll let friv provide his own thoughts...but I wonder if STL is seeing the worst of the trend to less harsh winters over time, as their climate is marginal for winter-like weather to begin with. In such a climate, it only takes a few degrees one way or the other to drastically change the winter feel there. Honestly, the same can be said (although to a lesser degree) in Chicago and Detroit, as we need things to work out favorably to get a harsh winter too. This is in contrast to MSP, MQT, LSE, INL, etc...where a true winter feel is virtually guaranteed every winter. You don't worry about occasional thaws in the 40s and 50s in those locations.

Do you have the stats on DJF mean temp by decade for Detroit, as well as the number of lows lower than +10F? I like to think of +10F as the benchmark for a cold night.

[beavis1729]

Many places in the great lakes had their best decade in 130 years. You need to move.

I'm not trying to be a Dick either, with the hobby you have.... Living in a subtropical region isn't probably the best. Everything south of Cincinnati to New York is considered subtropical and not continental koppen climate classification.

Sorry for the bad grammar, I'm going on 2 hours of sleep. I just rode 80 miles in 15 inches of snow last night in northern Michigan.

Jon

For snowfall, maybe...but certainly not for snow cover and cold temperatures. Snow cover and cold temperatures are the focus of this particular discussion.

[Chicago WX]

18 cities with snowfall records going back to 1884-85, save Kansas City which starts in 1889-90 but I included them anyway. A few going back to 1880-81. Here's the season decadal averages for all 18 locations. Note I used season snowfall totals, not annual totals. A few seasons had missing data, especially DAY and CMH in the late 1990's. All totals used were from NCDC files. Highlighted low (red) and high (blue) decades based off locations having at least 8 seasons of snowfall data for said period (i.e. 1884-85 to 1888-89 and 2009-10 to 2011-12 not eligible for most).

Anyways, pretty clear when looking at the chart. For the bulk of the Midwest, the winters of the 1920's through 1940's were a low point for snowfall. Conversely, the decades that immediately followed turned snowier...peaking in the late 1960's to 1970's winters, which for the majority were the best of times. But read into it what you will...it's not a winter harshness indicator per se, just snowfall stats.

[michsnowfreak]

Thanks Josh. I'll let friv provide his own thoughts...but I wonder if STL is seeing the worst of the trend to less harsh winters over time, as their climate is marginal for winter-like weather to begin with. In such a climate, it only takes a few degrees one way or the other to drastically change the winter feel there. Honestly, the same can be said (although to a lesser degree) in Chicago and Detroit, as we need things to work out favorably to get a harsh winter too. This is in contrast to MSP, MQT, LSE, INL, etc...where a true winter feel is virtually guaranteed every winter. You don't worry about occasional thaws in the 40s and 50s in those locations.

Do you have the stats on DJF mean temp by decade for Detroit, as well as the number of lows lower than +10F? I like to think of +10F as the benchmark for a cold night.

Avg winter temp (DJF) by decade

1870s – 25.2

1880s – 27.6

1890s – 26.5

1900s – 24.9

1910s – 25.5

1920s – 25.8

1930s – 28.3

1940s – 27.0

1950s – 28.6

1960s – 26.2

1970s – 24.8

1980s – 25.9

1990s – 29.2

2000s - 27.7

Of course there are a few things to consider...through 1965 temps were taken IN Detroit, since then at DTW. DTW however went from radiating magnet from the 1960s through the early 1980s to a UHI haven since the 1990s.

That said, according to the official stats, winters ranked from WARMEST to COLDEST show no pattern

1990s

1950s

1930s

2000s

1880s

1940s

1890s

1960s

1980s

1920s

1910s

1870s

1900s

1970s

Also, I have the number of days where temp fell to 9F or colder only calculated since 1950 (I have the data for early, but I had calculated this a few years ago when I only had daily data since 1948).

# of days per decade the temp got to 9F or colder

1950s- 101

1960s- 170

1970s- 260

1980s- 225

1990s- 129

2000s- 145

[Geos]

LOL he posted CFS torch maps in late October saying the country would roast in November. And the Great Lakes and northeast will finish the month COLDER than normal!

And he posted warm October CFSv2 maps in September!

3rd month of below normal temperatures.

[Chicago WX]

Indianapolis DJF average temperatures by decade. Though I'm not sure it's a fair fight because several site location changes throughout the years, where the thermometers were located, UHI, etc etc. To give a little info, basically the period from 1871 to 1942 was at a city location...and 1943 to present were airport locations.

1871-72 to 1878-79: 31.1º

1879-80 to 1888-89: 30.2º

1889-90 to 1898-99: 31.6º

1899-00 to 1908-09: 29.3º

1909-10 to 1918-19: 29.6º

1919-20 to 1928-29: 31.0º

1929-30 to 1938-39: 32.7º

1939-40 to 1948-49: 30.2º

1949-50 to 1958-59: 31.4º

1959-60 to 1968-69: 28.4º

1969-70 to 1978-79: 27.9º

1979-80 to 1988-89: 29.4º

1989-90 to 1998-99: 32.1º

1999-00 to 2008-09: 31.1º

2009-10 to 2011-12: 30.4º

[Chicago WX]

Credit goes to Harry for this, but uncanny the resemblance this November has to November 2008 with respect to temperatures. Not exact obviously, but both have the same general outline of warm and cold departures. I believe LOT likes 2008-09 for an analog for this winter.

[michsnowfreak]

Once again thanks for the additional stats Tim! Though i specialize in Detroit I like to see other areas stats. And we cherry-pick whatever you want, but as you pointed out generally the crummiest winters were in that 1930s-1950s period due to overwhelming consistency of all the major climate sites in the area. Also, the 1970s were the coldest winters on record of any decade. No wonder they thought there was global cooling back then lol.

[Jonger]

For snowfall, maybe...but certainly not for snow cover and cold temperatures. Snow cover and cold temperatures are the focus of this particular discussion.

Josh has proven this statement to be false. I personally recorded my best sustaining snow of my life from 2000-2011.

Jon

[Chicago WX]

Once again thanks for the additional stats Tim! Though i specialize in Detroit I like to see other areas stats. And we cherry-pick whatever you want, but as you pointed out generally the crummiest winters were in that 1930s-1950s period due to overwhelming consistency of all the major climate sites in the area. Also, the 1970s were the coldest winters on record of any decade. No wonder they thought there was global cooling back then lol.

There were absolutely terrible winters in the period from the 1920's through 1940's. I don't think most people realize that. By the same token, generally the 1960's to early 1980's were pretty good, of course peaking in the mid 70's to early/mid 80's. Talking overall, region wide. Some were dogs, but they were few and far between.

If we're just looking at season snowfall, if another run like this happened in Chicago, save for 1917-18...there'd be some sad weenies.

1912-13: 19.1"

1913-14: 28.2"

1914-15: 19.0"

1915-16: 26.1"

1916-17: 23.7"

1917-18: 64.1"

1918-19: 28.7"

1919-20: 32.2"

1920-21: 9.8"

1921-22: 11.5"

1922-23: 21.5"

1923-24: 27.6"

1924-25: 18.9"

[snowstormcanuck]

Everyone should check out Don S's posts about the winter of 2012-13:

A well respected forecaster and it's certainly nice to see the positive things he's saying about the upcoming winter for our area. I inferred a more relaxed 2009-10ish pattern, which if it reduced the ridiculous amount of suppression observed that winter while maintaining the same amount of storminess, would be pretty awesome.