Chicago WX Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Lol Tim. You'll have 1920-'21 beat by New Year's Day. You want some too? 8.3" in 1931-32 11.2" in 1918-19 12.6" in 1968-69 13.5" in 1994-95 13.9" in 1997-98 BTW, I hope everyone knows I'm just kidding around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 24, 2012 Author Share Posted November 24, 2012 No soup for you!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Tim...give em some DTW / DET numbers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Tim...give em some DTW / DET numbers! 13.4" in 1936-37 (12.9") 13.7" in 1948-49 15.1" in 1881-82 (13.2") 15.2" in 1918-19 15.4" in 1965-66 Josh might want to double check those. They came from DTX's website. The numbers I've got for 1936-37 and 1881-82 from NCDC for Detroit are different. Those from NCDC are in ( ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Whats scary about 1936/37 Winter was the summer of 36 was pretty similar to the summer of 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Whats scary about 1936/37 Winter was the summer of 36 was pretty similar to the summer of 2012. I knew someone would say that. This summer was exactly the same temp in MI as 2010. How'd that winter work out? Michigan state temps for Summer. 2012: 68.9º 2010: 68.9º Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I knew someone would say that. This summer was exactly the same temp in MI as 2010. How'd that winter work out? Michigan state temps for Summer. 2012: 68.9º 2010: 68.9º I couldn't help myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I couldn't help myself I figured/hoped. But back on topic I guess, I'm not really worried so much about temperatures as head through the first couple of weeks of December, granted the first week looks like a torch...rather it's the lack of activity. Storms, precipitation...anything of substance. That is what really needs to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I figured/hoped. But back on topic I guess, I'm not really worried so much about temperatures as head through the first couple of weeks of December, granted the first week looks like a torch...rather it's the lack of activity. Storms, precipitation...anything of substance. That is what really needs to change. Completely anecdotal but it seems like the longer the boring stretch is, the harder it breaks when it does. That's my positive spin for the day anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 The 12z GFS looking awful in the long range. Not any new news there I guess. Met winter looks to not start so good. Most of next week looks seasonable to below then we'll probably torch for a couple of days as the western trough forces height rises here along with a storm or two in the plains. After that, everything seems to point toward a cold pattern once again. I guess I don't see what's awful except for the few days starting next weekend into the beginning of the following week. Aren't you the same guy that gets worried that summer will be cold when May is chilly? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Some of the mets in NE forum saying it definitely looks like a mild first week of December and then the pattern starts to reload. Means we have to probably wait a few more weeks for decent snow (or at least, lasting snow). If that happens, I guess its better with a more wintry look for Christmas. If you want a week in December to mild, its week 1 lol. I like that line of thinking! It would make the most logical sense that if you get the mild spell in December out of the way early enough, snow will fall closer to Christmas - and hopefully stick around through the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I like that line of thinking! It would make the most logical sense that if you get the mild spell in December out of the way early enough, snow will fall closer to Christmas - and hopefully stick around through the end of the month. Interesting... I have noticed that quite a few Decembers have started early and we generally melt off our snowpack for Christmas, maybe an early start isn't good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Completely anecdotal but it seems like the longer the boring stretch is, the harder it breaks when it does. That's my positive spin for the day anyway. Again, for the upteenth time, 1998-99 it is then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 As I posted in another thread, this seems to be a running trend lately - winter satrting later and later. 2008 is the last year I can remember an early start to the season. Thats completely the opposite than what I have observed in the lower lakes during the past 12 years. Last year was an anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Ugh... Remember hearing all this stuff last Dec. "well the following week looks much better" only for it to be pushed back another week. Actually no I don't remember that. I remember last dec sucking and hoping itd get way better in jan. What I DO remember is that we see this same flood of pessimism every single year on this board and only in 2011-12 did it end up justified. Speaking of 11-12 this cold season has stated of so much colder than 2011-12 its not funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Thats completely the opposite than what I have observed in the lower lakes during the past 12 years. Last year was an anomaly. Thank you!!!!!!!!!!! That is my thoughts exactly!!!! Now November snow has been most definitely lackin the past two decades over historical records but a few inches of November snow that melts in 2 days or less is NOT the start of winter. Have u any idea how many "snowy" novembers are followed by crappy Dec? A lot. You will not see an earlier start to deep lasting winter in these parts than we saw in 2010-11. Early December bro uhht snowcover that lasted thru mid march save for a few brief thaws. I won't speak for the far north but for southetb Michigan it would be completely false to say winter is starting later and later every year. We get so many snowy winters in a row, climo catches up with one sucky wintet in 2011-12 and suddenly that sucky winter is a benchmark for trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Wow at the pessimism. Taking models seriously in the long range like this is quite foolish. We don't know what's going to happen later in December. It could be dry and uneventful, or we could be pounded with a blizzard that would make 1978 look like a joke. I guess more waiting. I've waited nearly 2 years, what's a few more weeks gonna do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Medium range sucks and that is all that matters at this point when it comes to posts right now, so you you get alot of whining. Long range truncated mumble is pretty universally ignored. Uneventful spells happen. Doesn't mean the whole winter is a bust, lol. What I try to do is occupy my time with something else during these periods so when I check back in a few weeks, we could be talking about a storm, if not, well go back to what you were doing. Rinse. Repeat. Profit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I surrender myself to the models and the forum in winter no matter how bleak it looks....sadly there is no way could I just walk away for a "few" weeks and I don't think 99.9% of the snow hounds on here could either. Hell, I can't even get up to take a whiz at 3 am without checking in on the board or the next model fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I surrender myself to the models and the forum in winter no matter how bleak it looks....sadly there is no way could I just walk away for a "few" weeks and I don't think 99.9% of the snow hounds on here could either. Hell, I can't even get up to take a whiz at 3 am without checking in on the board or the next model fix. The last accumulating snow here was March 2nd, and I'm sure it's similar for most here, so how could one not understand the impatience the snow lovers have here? After a torchy summer, the late fall/early winter itch is only compounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I surrender myself to the models and the forum in winter no matter how bleak it looks....sadly there is no way could I just walk away for a "few" weeks and I don't think 99.9% of the snow hounds on here could either. Hell, I can't even get up to take a whiz at 3 am without checking in on the board or the next model fix. haha so true. What an addicting and depressing hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I surrender myself to the models and the forum in winter no matter how bleak it looks....sadly there is no way could I just walk away for a "few" weeks and I don't think 99.9% of the snow hounds on here could either. Hell, I can't even get up to take a whiz at 3 am without checking in on the board or the next model fix. The next time my wife starts hounding me for looking at the models / reading this forum I am going to show her this post. This is my way of relaxing !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 The last accumulating snow here was March 2nd, and I'm sure it's similar for most here, so how could one not understand the impatience the snow lovers have here? After a torchy summer, the late fall/early winter itch is only compounded. Weird. I have no itch for accumulating snow. Only a "meh" feeling of knowing it's coming. Snow free season hasn't been long enough, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Weird. I have no itch for accumulating snow. Only a "meh" feeling of knowing it's coming. Snow free season hasn't been long enough, I guess. Reading comprehension FTL. Read the post again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Weird. I have no itch for accumulating snow. Only a "meh" feeling of knowing it's coming. Snow free season hasn't been long enough, I guess. How can you not have your snow guns ready to blast.. I'd have enough snow blasted this next week to assure I'd have a white Christmas. I'd have parking lot mounds deep snow. sorry for the OT I started, Hoosier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Wow at the pessimism. Taking models seriously in the long range like this is quite foolish. We don't know what's going to happen later in December. It could be dry and uneventful, or we could be pounded with a blizzard that would make 1978 look like a joke. I guess more waiting. I've waited nearly 2 years, what's a few more weeks gonna do? Something making 78 look like a joke would be one scary storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 No matter what, I think the first week to 10 days of Dec is a lost cause... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2012112412_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png Way too early to cancel winter. Obviously its been shown we can go very below normal at times, even during a warm month. Hopefully the stars align and Saukville and BowMe get about 30 inches of lake effect snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 The GFS going out to 384 hrs 4 times a day surely does no good for my addiction and weenie mood swings. Kinna wish it was ran a copycat of the euro at times but, I'd definitely miss the GFS not being run 4 time a day once we get inside like 120 hrs.. I'd kill though if the euro was run like it is now at 12Z & 00Z and then run a 06Z & 18Z out to 96 or 120 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Something making 78 look like a joke would be one scary storm. It could happen this year. Point is, we don't know, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 The GFS going out to 384 hrs 4 times a day surely does no good for my addiction and weenie mood swings. Kinna wish it was ran a copycat of the euro at times but, I'd definitely miss the GFS not being run 4 time a day once we get inside like 120 hrs.. I'd kill though if the euro was run like it is now at 12Z & 00Z and then run a 06Z & 18Z out to 96 or 120 hrs. I don't even know why the GFS is ran out to that long. To me, it's a waste of computing resources. I haven't heard anyone give a good reason for it. I mean I'm skeptical of anything past the 5 day mark. We just don't have enough sampling to run them that far. I'd rather see us investing in having more sampling locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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