hm8 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Calling the first half of winter a complete bust already is one thing, but you cant ignore the fact that all signs point toward an extended warm/boring stretch either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Calling the first half of winter a complete bust already is one thing, but you cant ignore the fact that all signs point toward an extended warm/boring stretch either. Signs are looking increasingly good for a warmup, but calling it extended is definitely premature. Per ORH in the NE forum, the euro weeklies look good starting the 2nd week of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Signs are looking increasingly good for a warmup, but calling it extended is definitely premature. Per ORH in the NE forum, the euro weeklies look good starting the 2nd week of Dec. 2-3 weeks out is extended in my mind. Semantics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 JB is all in on the post December 6 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 2-3 weeks out is extended in my mind. Semantics. I thought you meant extended as in long-lasting, my bad. We are certainly not looking at a 2-3 week torch lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 My personal feeling, for my backyard, is this winter is going to suck nu%s when it comes to snow totals (well below normal). Moisture has been in short supply for MONTHS now and I doubt we flip a switch and go wet anytime soon. Not saying a big storm isn't possible, but really...growing up I remember 6 inches storms being major around here...got way spoiled by those record snowfalls the past 5 years...i doubt i see any 20 inch storms any time soon. I have no idea where temps end up, but until we get a good snowpack, temps have a hard time going below 0F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Lots of negativity on this thread today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 My personal feeling, for my backyard, is this winter is going to suck nu%s when it comes to snow totals (well below normal). Moisture has been in short supply for MONTHS now and I doubt we flip a switch and go wet anytime soon. Not saying a big storm isn't possible, but really...growing up I remember 6 inches storms being major around here...got way spoiled by those record snowfalls the past 5 years...i doubt i see any 20 inch storms any time soon. I have no idea where temps end up, but until we get a good snowpack, temps have a hard time going below 0F. Absolutely agree! Spoiled is an understatement. In the 90's 6" was your big Snow. I think there was only 3 times of 10"+ in DTW in the 90's. Maybe this decade will be somewhat similar on the snowfall end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Absolutely agree! Spoiled is an understatement. In the 90's 6" was your big Snow. I think there was only 3 times of 10"+ in DTW in the 90's. Maybe this decade will be somewhat similar on the snowfall end. Agree that spoiling is an understatement. Thats generally climo here...6"+ is your big snow (lets say 6-10"). If you get lucky with bigger, great. The fact that DTW hasnt had that MAJOR epic storm in recent years clouds the fact that theyve had like 4 times more 6"+ storms than normal. Winter here is a season of frequent snow, not heavy, infrequent snow. Winter is coming folks, no matter what kind of year it is...winter and snow ARE coming. How much is tbd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Just an FYI...I'm not trying to cancel winter...or half of it...just trying to point out that despite things not looking great in the long range that this is not last winter and that I expect things to get better the second half of winter if we don't get much to produce the first half... However... Over the past couple of days the GFS ensembles have been trying to hint at a breakdown of the -WPO and large NE Asia polar vortex...which is what we want to see. I've stated I think the NAO/AO will both remain neutral to negative until somewhere around mid-December and right now it looks like the MJO will try to remain in phases 1-2 into mid December...I said yesterday there's a window somewhere near or just before mid-December for something interesting if we can get the -WPO to relax and get a more positive PNA to develop. However, the ECM ensembles aren't really showing much weakening of the -WPO through day 10, so I don't want to go all in on this window of opportunity yet. But it is certainly there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 My personal feeling, for my backyard, is this winter is going to suck nu%s when it comes to snow totals (well below normal). Moisture has been in short supply for MONTHS now and I doubt we flip a switch and go wet anytime soon. Not saying a big storm isn't possible, but really...growing up I remember 6 inches storms being major around here...got way spoiled by those record snowfalls the past 5 years...i doubt i see any 20 inch storms any time soon. I have no idea where temps end up, but until we get a good snowpack, temps have a hard time going below 0F. I'm sure you have seen my snowfall prediction at MSP being 38", that is lower than most have suggested. So yes I do see lower than normal snow fall for MSP Going into last year I believe our 125 year average was around 53", thanks to the non winter of 2011/12 when we had a partly 22.3" our average has dropped to 45.6". 38" was a total I came up without a 6"+ snowfall for November, but with at least one if not two events like that in December. I'm beginning to believe we could see less than 38". Irregardless of what we see up here, I think ARX will come in with more snowfall than MPX, blame it on the strong -PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 The Euro thinks it's March of 2012 again. That is a lot of heat being transported from low latitudes, frontal compression, down sloping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 JB is all in on the post December 6 period. I hope we don't all start cycling together. It will end up like 2001-02 and we will end up with a bad case of pms, post model syndrome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Some of the mets in NE forum saying it definitely looks like a mild first week of December and then the pattern starts to reload. Means we have to probably wait a few more weeks for decent snow (or at least, lasting snow). If that happens, I guess its better with a more wintry look for Christmas. If you want a week in December to mild, its week 1 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Meso- Lets hope something happens. The Mississippi River is going to need a recharge or barges aren't going to be going anywhere next spring/summer. A good snowpack would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 JB is all in on the post December 6 period. On Dec 6th JB will be saying he's all in on post Dec 20th period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Ugh... Remember hearing all this stuff last Dec. "well the following week looks much better" only for it to be pushed back another week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 My personal feeling, for my backyard, is this winter is going to suck nu%s when it comes to snow totals (well below normal). Moisture has been in short supply for MONTHS now and I doubt we flip a switch and go wet anytime soon. Not saying a big storm isn't possible, but really...growing up I remember 6 inches storms being major around here...got way spoiled by those record snowfalls the past 5 years...i doubt i see any 20 inch storms any time soon. I have no idea where temps end up, but until we get a good snowpack, temps have a hard time going below 0F. The lack of moisture thing is a very valid point. Why would we go from very dry to wet with the ushering in of a cold front. No argument in the lack of moisture. The ground is absoloutly dry in these regions and we have still to have a great wet period this fall. The water level of the Detroit river on the inlet of Lake Erie was down about 6' yesterday. Almost like a low tide of Britian !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 On Dec 6th JB will be saying he's all in on post Dec 20th period. Exactly.... and so it begins I was wondering, wasn't last season the year the southern states received accumulating synoptic snow before most of our forum area? Hmmm, looks like that little system the beginning of the week could give areas south of most of us a head start yet again. Meh, probably doesn't mean anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Probably a little early to bring this back up that Chicago Storm put together last Dec but as both Milwaukee and Chicago are still waiting for our first measurable my curiosity got the best of me so I wanted to get a data refresher..so figured why not just prematurely weenie bump it up. Neutral winters in that data for Milwaukee. 2001-2002: First measurable..Dec 19th - 0.6" Dec - 2.6" Jan - 13.1" Feb - 4.2" March - 13.0" April - 3.6" Season - 36.5" 1946-1947: First measurable..not sure date.. Nov - 0.1" Dec - 6.8" Jan - 26.3" Feb - 5.2" March - 9.4" April - 0.9" May - T Season - 48.7" 2003-2004:First measurable.. Nov 24th - .05" Nov - 0.7" Dec 3.1" - Jan - 22.7" Feb - 9.2" March - 3.4" April 0.1" Season - 39.2" 1948-1949:First measurable not sure what date in dec.. Nov 0.0" Dec - 2.8" Jan 13.7" Feb - 9.5" March 3.7" - April - 0.3" Season - 30.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 mega torch on the horizon...big savings on heating ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 mega torch on the horizon...big savings on heating ftw The UHI and lake probably shave the bill down quite a bit as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 One more day before the wife gets home and the furnace season commences .. 49 in bedroom last night. no laptop and comforter tent last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Top shelf night crawler pickings on the snowmobile trails when Jon heads up dec 7th. lol j/k... nice cool down that weekend.. hopefully the LES guns fire up in earnest or maybe even lucky out and its a cold storm in fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 The UHI and lake probably shave the bill down quite a bit as well. We live in the middle floors of a south facing brick multi-unit. My furnace kicks on a couple times a day and the place holds at 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Top shelf night crawler pickings on the snowmobile trails when Jon heads up dec 7th. lol j/k... nice cool down that weekend.. hopefully the LES guns fire up in earnest or maybe even lucky out and its a cold storm in fantasy land. We are hedging our bets and heading up to Kalkaska to ride the fire-trails tonight.... Gonna be a long night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 The 12z GFS looking awful in the long range. Not any new news there I guess. Met winter looks to not start so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 The 12z GFS looking awful in the long range. Not any new news there I guess. Met winter looks to not start so good. As I posted in another thread, this seems to be a running trend lately - winter satrting later and later. 2008 is the last year I can remember an early start to the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 winter cancel Might as well get it out of the way early. 9.8" in 1920-21 11.5" in 1921-22 12.0" in 1936-37 14.3" in 1948-49 18.0" in 1898-99 Probably a little early to bring this back up that Chicago Storm put together last Dec but as both Milwaukee and Chicago are still waiting for our first measurable my curiosity got the best of me so I wanted to get a data refresher..so figured why not just prematurely weenie bump it up. Neutral winters in that data for Milwaukee. 2001-2002: First measurable..Dec 19th - 0.6" Dec - 2.6" Jan - 13.1" Feb - 4.2" March - 13.0" April - 3.6" Season - 36.5" 1946-1947: First measurable..not sure date.. Nov - 0.1" Dec - 6.8" Jan - 26.3" Feb - 5.2" March - 9.4" April - 0.9" May - T Season - 48.7" 2003-2004:First measurable.. Nov 24th - .05" Nov - 0.7" Dec 3.1" - Jan - 22.7" Feb - 9.2" March - 3.4" April 0.1" Season - 39.2" 1948-1949:First measurable not sure what date in dec.. Nov 0.0" Dec - 2.8" Jan 13.7" Feb - 9.5" March 3.7" - April - 0.3" Season - 30.0" And for you. 11.3" in 1884-85 12.1" in 1967-68 14.4" in 1921-22 17.8" in 1953-54 20.2" in 1936-37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 24, 2012 Author Share Posted November 24, 2012 Lol Tim. You'll have 1920-'21 beat by New Year's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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