wisconsinwx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Well a torch makes perfect sense with a negative so and nao, so might as well lock it in as a certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Long range looks bad but it was only a few days ago (or maybe a few runs ago) where the extended looked more wintry. I can imagine there will be some people ready to jump off a cliff if this look keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Nice!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Wow... Insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I think by the time this torch gets here it will be tempered down quite a bit. - like every other one since October. Very odd seeing an east based block and a ridge over the central US. - must be due to unclear signals in the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Looks like there will be a delay to the pacific gets its act together. The "November witch" pattern change definitely put 1951 into the coffin. May as well go big!! 1911-12 here we come!! What happened in 1911-1912? Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 What happened in 1911-1912? Jon Very harsh winter with plenty of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Blowtorch first half of December and than started to get cooler the 2nd half. Bottom fell out in January. Was it the year that the Niagara Falls walls completely Frozen? yes it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Yea that ridge reminds me allot of this past March. Obviously totally different set-ups but the wow factor is huge. Hope that idea or solution falls off a cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 GFS and Euro pretty much agree on a massive torch to Start off December after the upcoming storm/cool down. Agreement sucks when it works against you. Awful look. Lets see how things progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Long range looks bad but it was only a few days ago (or maybe a few runs ago) where the extended looked more wintry. I can imagine there will be some people ready to jump off a cliff if this look keeps up. A couple of YESTERDAYS runs had us in way below normal temps in the longrange. Its AMAZING to me that whenever one run of the LR shows torch the torchistas are just all over it with maps and such and the snowlovers want to jump off a cliff. And yet it changes drastically EVERY SIX HOURS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 More european cold, more torch for us... Lovely. Do we lose the entire month of December again this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 More european cold, more torch for us... Lovely. Do we lose the entire month of December again this year? Nope. Nov 20th LR says very cold first few days of Dec, Nov 21st LR says torch first few days of Dec....no reason to even worry about this now. First thing would be to worry about storm potential for Tuesday. Ive noticed a lot of people do this on here...the cold runs get ignored, the warm runs are taken as gospel. Per all signs, signals (per some of the mets in the NE forum, they have fantastic reads/analysis there) the first half of Dec will not be a torch. In fact, from all forecasts Ive heard this (DTX, Deedler, Harry to name a few) it sounds like if we are worrying about anything this winter it will be snow suppression, not cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Nope. Nov 20th LR says very cold first few days of Dec, Nov 21st LR says torch first few days of Dec....no reason to even worry about this now. First thing would be to worry about storm potential for Tuesday. Ive noticed a lot of people do this on here...the cold runs get ignored, the warm runs are taken as gospel. Per all signs, signals (per some of the mets in the NE forum, they have fantastic reads/analysis there) the first half of Dec will not be a torch. In fact, from all forecasts Ive heard this (DTX, Deedler, Harry to name a few) it sounds like if we are worrying about anything this winter it will be snow suppression, not cold air. Say whaaaat??? The central CONUS definitely looks like it will want to torch the first week of December. Whether that gets to us or not is another question. The other question is how transient that warm spell is...it might get shunted back south pretty quick with a good reload pattern...hopefully the breakdown of the EPO/WPO ridge is too fast on models. I think the milder air does try to approach for a few days, but like Will said..it may try to stay off to our southwest if we can keep the -NAO going. Maybe they'll be some sort of mixed event as the central US warmth tries to push east. http://www.americanw...87&qpid=1874665 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 A couple of YESTERDAYS runs had us in way below normal temps in the longrange. Its AMAZING to me that whenever one run of the LR shows torch the torchistas are just all over it with maps and such and the snowlovers want to jump off a cliff. And yet it changes drastically EVERY SIX HOURS!!! ^This! No need to get worked up over something 10 days ahead of time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Say whaaaat??? [/background][/size][/font][/color] http://www.americanw...87&qpid=1874665 The thread I have been reading is the "Winter 2012-13" one and havent read anything since yesterday. The general vibe i get from some of the mets in there is a wintry period through mid-late Dec than a warmup from late-Dec to early Jan and then another bigger cold period. Obviously they are referring to new england but i have learned over the years that in far eastern MI my weather trend tends to correlate with them as much if not more than the central midwest. Let me also say this: after a possibly snowy period through mid-December in New England, we may have to sound the torch alert from late December into early January. The Euro ensembles are starting to look pretty nice. Getting that NAO drop within 10 days is key...we are seeing that finally happen now. Onto the 12z gfs, epic cold dump ensuing this run..essentially, winter arrives on (gulp ctblizz) the 25th for the northern tier and continues through the run id say. Latest run of the ECMWF 32 day model maintains the signal for northern blocking into the 2nd week of December with almost a cross-polar ridge of high pressure from Greenland connecting up with the Aluetian high pressure between the 26th Nov and 2nd Dec in particular. However, by week 4 (10th to 16th) Dec it does develop a marked trough stretching from the E and NE US across the Atlantic towards the UK with those +ve anom heights across Greeland for example declining. The pattern resembles more of a +NAO pattern by mid-December and generally the AO looks to become less -ve. Be interesting to see what happens, but clearly there are signs that, with time, the vortex as it stands now will be brought to it's "knees" through December which can only bode well for many long term. Regards, Matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 18Z has a SHORT 1-2 day warmup and then right back to seasonal... WEIRD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 ^This! No need to get worked up over something 10 days ahead of time! Oh gee, would you look at that. The 18z GFS is in, and big surprise, its very different than its 12z run (ie, much colder). For mby, after tomorrow it has about 2 days of postive 850mb temps (Dec 2-3) then back to cold. It will be interesting to see what the end result is, but Im sorry, a few days in the high 40s or 50s is very common in December (DTWs avg high doesnt fall to 39F til Dec 6th). I will consider the first half of December a torch if we are sitting on Dec 15th and the region is sitting at +5F or warmer on the month with very little snow having fallen anywhere. That is a torch....not a few mild days. The word "torch" I think was coined on these boards during the big early-Jan 2008 record-warm spell and since then its been watered down to where anything warmer than normal is a "torch". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 18Z has a SHORT 1-2 day warmup and then right back to seasonal... WEIRD. Looking at the GFS 2m temps they max out at 46F on the warmest day. So if you take it verbatum (and 2m temps always vary a bit to actual sfc temp) the period will be characterized by days mostly a few degrees COLDER than normal and two days a few degrees WARMER than normal. In other words the extended is seasonable to seasonably cool. Record cold? Nope. Torch? Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 This just goes to show that we need to take a deep breath and stop hugging every single model run. I will admit, I can be guilty of this at times, especially when I am rooting for snow. Aren't we all guilty at some point? The fact of the matter is, we are headed into a colder pattern. The question remains, how long will it stay? Let's let the models to do what they do best...fight and change...fight and change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 This just goes to show that we need to take a deep breath and stop hugging every single model run. I will admit, I can be guilty of this at times, especially when I am rooting for snow. Aren't we all guilty at some point? The fact of the matter is, we are headed into a colder pattern. The question remains, how long will it stay? Let's let the models to do what they do best...fight and change...fight and change. Good post . I LOOK at every model run but I hug none. I PREFER seeing the cold runs over the warm runs, but its really all a moot point. Im the first to point out when someone posts a torch run and ignores a cold run, but that doesnt mean Im taking the cold run verbatum, With each passing day we are getting closer to winter. Snow is coming. You cant stop time. You can get into sh*tty patterns (see last winter) or great patterns (see the winter before), but you cant stop that winter is coming. Most signals, signs, analogs point to a normal or colder than normal winter in most of the midwest/Great Lakes. I think thats a reason Im hoping for a clipper express this winter bc I have this feeling my gut (aided by many outlooks Ive read) that our biggest worries this year will be suppression NOT cold. I know its easy to shudder and think of last winter, but we were certainly due for a crappy winter, time to forget it as we are on the doorstep of another winter. Does that man we cant have another crappy winter? Absolutely not, but again, traditional signs (cold in Canada, above avg NA snowcover, Alaska getting off to a much milder winter than last) say this is NOTHING like last year. And those signals are just as good as computer models and caterpillars and acorns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Good post . I LOOK at every model run but I hug none. I PREFER seeing the cold runs over the warm runs, but its really all a moot point. Im the first to point out when someone posts a torch run and ignores a cold run, but that doesnt mean Im taking the cold run verbatum, With each passing day we are getting closer to winter. Snow is coming. You cant stop time. You can get into sh*tty patterns (see last winter) or great patterns (see the winter before), but you cant stop that winter is coming. Most signals, signs, analogs point to a normal or colder than normal winter in most of the midwest/Great Lakes. I think thats a reason Im hoping for a clipper express this winter bc I have this feeling my gut (aided by many outlooks Ive read) that our biggest worries this year will be suppression NOT cold. I know its easy to shudder and think of last winter, but we were certainly due for a crappy winter, time to forget it as we are on the doorstep of another winter. Does that man we cant have another crappy winter? Absolutely not, but again, traditional signs (cold in Canada, above avg NA snowcover, Alaska getting off to a much milder winter than last) say this is NOTHING like last year. And those signals are just as good as computer models and caterpillars and acorns! Josh, how is that Galaxy S3 working out for looking at models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Josh, how is that Galaxy S3 working out for looking at models? LOVE it! Its so nice to be able to play with it at work and find ANYTHING I need without jumping on the work computer where I can only access gov sites or on my "antique" pantech where it was too small for me to see model qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I can't remember a December in the last decade or so that didn't have at least one day in december that was near or above 50 and 60 and this yr looks no different.. I'm not asking for a Dec 2000 just give me seasonal day time temps from the 20th through January 1st...not really asking for a lot is it? Its just something that hasn't been done here since 2000 that I can remember.. So much grinch weather has happened during that Dec 20th to the 1st stretch that has killed winter outdoor activities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The torch of Dec on both models worries me a tad. Hopefully the storm of the 28th or so runs just to our south bringing some accumulations here.... Been a long time since we had plowable snow here. From memory the last 4"+ in the Windsor area was back in Feb 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 I can't remember a December in the last decade or so that didn't have at least one day in december that was near or above 50 and 60 and this yr looks no different.. I'm not asking for a Dec 2000 just give me seasonal day time temps from the 20th through January 1st...not really asking for a lot is it? Its just something that hasn't been done here since 2000 that I can remember.. So much grinch weather has happened during that Dec 20th to the 1st stretch that has killed winter outdoor activities. Northern Michigan's skiing and snowmobiling industry relies on Dec 20th through Jan 10th, last year it was nearly a complete washout. The generated tourism from mid Jan through the end of winter pales in comparison to those holiday weeks. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 The torch of Dec on both models worries me a tad. Hopefully the storm of the 28th or so runs just to our south bringing some accumulations here.... Been a long time since we had plowable snow here. From memory the last 4"+ in the Windsor area was back in Feb 2011. Windsor didnt get 4" on Feb 10, 2012? If not than the last 4"+ snow was probably March 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Donny Sutherland. Although I have not yet completed my winter thoughts, summer blockiness and recent trends in blocking suggest odds favor potentially abundant winter blocking (AO). If some of the ensemble members are accurate, there may be a signal associated with frequent, strong blocking perhaps along the lines of what one saw during 2002-03. The recent fading of the PDO-, enhances the probability of more frequent PNA+ regimes than might otherwise be the case. 2002-03 - Less than 15" of snow total at MKE airport for dec/jan/feb Don't do it, wisconsinwx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Don't do it, wisconsinwx. LOL I walk past there every morning. I'll keep an eye out for him if things are looking bad.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Windsor didnt get 4" on Feb 10, 2012? If not than the last 4"+ snow was probably March 2011. Edit: Checked Env Canada...Windsor airport had 3.8" with the Feb 10/11, 2012 front. On Mar 10/11, 2011 & Mar 5/6, 2011 they had 4.3" each time, but the last real BIG snow was Feb 20/21, 2011 with 11.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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