wisconsinwx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 12z euro back north again, gfs ensembles lend little confidence. After looking at the solution on Accuweather, that's the kind of storm I hope we see a lot of, even though it's not the deepest in the world. Would be the perfect track if it could wrap up a tight baroclinic zone, which it clearly doesn't because the Wunderground snow map looks pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Not a big snow. Still though, another reminder that Winter is right around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 000 FXUS63 KDTX 202037 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 337 PM EST TUE NOV 20 2012 POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STRONG PACIFIC SHORTWAVE SEEN TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH GOOD 500 MB HEIGHT FALL CENTER MOVING NEAR/THOUGH LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY...PER GFS/EURO. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MOSTLY A COLD RAIN...BUT OBVIOUSLY BETTER LIFT/RAPID DEEPENING AND THE SCENARIO IS REVERSED...BUT THAT WOULD ALSO PROBABLY SUPPORT A FARTHER WEST TRACK AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 000 FXUS63 KDTX 202037 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 337 PM EST TUE NOV 20 2012 POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STRONG PACIFIC SHORTWAVE SEEN TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH GOOD 500 MB HEIGHT FALL CENTER MOVING NEAR/THOUGH LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY...PER GFS/EURO. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MOSTLY A COLD RAIN...BUT OBVIOUSLY BETTER LIFT/RAPID DEEPENING AND THE SCENARIO IS REVERSED...BUT THAT WOULD ALSO PROBABLY SUPPORT A FARTHER WEST TRACK AS WELL. Year in and year out it seems that we in SE MI ALWAYS missed the first storm or two way to our west. Its common that we will have had nothing more than a few days of flurries and sometimes a coating or two while someone in the Plains gets buried. Its a month before the winter solstice and over 2 months til the "dead of winter", so it is NOTHING bad at all (we usually end up with a better winter than said area of the Plains that gets slammed), just more annoying than anything because once you hit Nov 1st the wait seems like eternity. And it appears DTX is thinking the same thing, because reading that disco its kinda like "if the track is favorable we will see a cold rain, but if its a snowstorm it will track too far west". But why not, why cant we have the first major snowstorm? Its not like its never happened before (see 1974), and it seems that an overrunning scenario is not ridiculously far-fetched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 La Crosse had this from this morning: FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND...UNCERTAINTY IS MUCH HIGHER THAN AVERAGE DUE TO THE FOLLOWING REASONS... 1. MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ - SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING SOME RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS TRY TO BRING A STRONG MJO SIGNAL INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER DURING THE PAST 3 DAYS...200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES HAVE DRAMATICALLY DECREASED. IT WILL INTERESTING OVER THE WEEKEND WHETHER THIS OSCILLATION STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OVER 30C WATER IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC. 2. PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION /NAO/ - FOR THE PAST WEEK THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING ON WHEN THE NAO WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME NEGATIVE. CPC/S SPAGHETTI PLOT CONTINUES TO SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FROM -1.5 TO 1. LOOKING AT THE 150 MB WIND ANOMALIES AND ALSO STRATOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES...DO NOT SEE ANY INDICATION OF A BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPING ANYWHERE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. 3. CLIMATE MODELS - BOTH THE CFS VERSION 2 AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECASTING SYSTEM /NAEFS/ SHOW ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY 8 TO 14 TIME PERIOD. AS A RESULT...ANY COLD PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT. THIS IS INCONSISTENT WITH SOME OF THE MODELS WHICH SHOW THAT SHOW A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA. WITH MIXED SIGNALS ACROSS THE GLOBE...VERY CAUTIOUS OF GRABBING ONTO ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION...THUS...WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES LOW BEYOND DAY 5 UNTIL THERE IS A COHERENT DAY TO DAY SIGNAL. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 La Crosse had this from this morning: Regarding point 2: the NAO is now negative again. -0.5 for today. CPC now showing widespread cold across the Midwest. Sometimes the NAEFS follows after the CPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 12z GFS had the first subzero readings later in the run... something to keep in mind...obviously we'll need snow cover for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Year in and year out it seems that we in SE MI ALWAYS missed the first storm or two way to our west. Its common that we will have had nothing more than a few days of flurries and sometimes a coating or two while someone in the Plains gets buried. Its a month before the winter solstice and over 2 months til the "dead of winter", so it is NOTHING bad at all (we usually end up with a better winter than said area of the Plains that gets slammed), just more annoying than anything because once you hit Nov 1st the wait seems like eternity. And it appears DTX is thinking the same thing, because reading that disco its kinda like "if the track is favorable we will see a cold rain, but if its a snowstorm it will track too far west". But why not, why cant we have the first major snowstorm? Its not like its never happened before (see 1974), and it seems that an overrunning scenario is not ridiculously far-fetched. I know the feeling, man. Look on the bright side, at least we're talking about a potential threat this early, whereas we were in full torch mode with absolutely nothing to talk about last year. Even getting a dusting from this would make me happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 ECMWF ensembles like expected, were all over the place. Some were flat, some were amplified, some were GGEMesque with up and down troughs of no real consequence. The key imo is the sampling of the pacific energy. If it comes in lifeless dead, forget about it anywhere. Just would be a transitionary trough to hell by the current data. The Euro weeklies were flat ugly through the first 3rd of December, so hopefully this mounts to something somewhere in the region. They showed a cold end to the month but through mid-December looked rather uninteresting or quiet. Dry weather pattern to start off but maybe perhaps getting a bit active after December 8th towards the 15th? Hmph. The stratosphere is starting to have a 2011-12 look, but still very far from it. I just hope we avoid another continuous +AO/+NAO regime. A -AO and neutral NAO would favor our region nicely. Atleast the Pacific is alot better with more ridging towards the Aleutians this year. If were going to cash into anything through December 10th, i would call between Nov 25th and Dec 2nd cause otherwise it seems like a rather boring and uneventful pattern. If we can maintain the nice snow cover and cold air towards the West atleast, this may bode well for January and February unlike last year where it was warm there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The 00z GFS breaks out the worst pattern imaginable. The Fire Hose + East Based fading -NAO. The long range models will be useless I hope and this is just artifact crap past HR180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The 00z GFS breaks out the worst pattern imaginable. The Fire Hose + East Based fading -NAO. The long range models will be useless I hope and this is just artifact crap past HR180. The 12z and last nights 0z unleashed the arctic....6z was very mild....18z cold (not as cold as 12z though). This models longrange has laughably been changing every run, and will continue to do so (transition seasons are the worst for longrange models). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 LOT's take on the long range. Says Siberia will begin to unload into North America around Dec. 1st. SAT/SUN WILL SEE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW PUSH BACK OVERHEAD WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY MON. 500MB TROUGH PIVOTS EAST WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT OR SEMI-ZONAL FLOW SUN/MON. SAT HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 30S. SUN/MON WILL BEGIN TO WARM MARGINALLY INTO THE LOW 40S. THIS ALL APPEARS TO BE TEMPORARY AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BLOCKING PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER ALASKA AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY ALLOW MUCH COLDER AIR TO ARRIVE INTO CENTRAL CANADA MID/LATE NEXT WEEK FROM SIBERIA. CONFIDENCE...HIGH. BEACHLER ^ With regards to above maps. How in the world could you get a zonal flow from an east based Greenland Block. GFS makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The 00z GFS breaks out the worst pattern imaginable. The Fire Hose + East Based fading -NAO. The long range models will be useless I hope and this is just artifact crap past HR180. With high lat blocking and a split PV, that looks weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I really am so anxious for snow (like most of you), that its hard to realize how truly early it is. I watch the GFS change WILDLY each run thinking "we need snow...we need snow" and I just realized that the 384-hour GFS takes us...to only December 6th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 With high lat blocking and a split PV, that looks weird. Yeah it does. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTNA150.html If you click next throughout the run. For some reason the trough out West just sit's and spins to the SE while heights rise accross the CONUS, I suppose that is some what possible with the -NAO shifting East and then back to positive. But as that happens it looks like the Western Trough breaks down and heads East and prevents any cold intrusions. Then another trough replaces it and the zonal flow returns with Height raises again. That is probably GFS long range mythical scenario's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 06Z GFS having a little more fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 06Z GFS having a little more fun Yeah, it advertises a decent storm for the Detroit area. I'm officially hooked on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The 00z GFS breaks out the worst pattern imaginable. The Fire Hose + East Based fading -NAO. The long range models will be useless I hope and this is just artifact crap past HR180. The ensembles show a zonal, but seasonable temperature pattern. This is on long range though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Holy Torch on the OP GFS run. Oh my. Thats just not right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Holy Torch on the OP GFS run. Oh my. Thats just not right. Welp, at least you're on the board for 12-13. When did you get that 0.7"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The 12z GFS has a little snow for Toledo at 162 hours, also hitting Detroit and Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 What an awful looking long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 What an awful looking long range. What time do the GFS ensembles come in? Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Yikes at the Euro long-range. Looks toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Ugh that ridge on the Euro looks like March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 What time do the GFS ensembles come in? Jon Hours ago. Pretty much all over the place. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Ugh that ridge on the Euro looks like March... Wow!! +20 C 850 Anomalies up into S. Canada!!! Almost exactly looks like my prediction map I made!! GFS looks Ultra Torchy in the extended as well!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Hours ago. Pretty much all over the place. http://www.meteo.psu.../ewallmref.html It's going to get fairly cold over the next week. You might as well just enjoy that and not worry about what happens afterward because if you're looking for model agreement or consistency you won't find it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Welp, at least you're on the board for 12-13. When did you get that 0.7"? Oct 30th sleet/Snow combo coated shaded areas roof tops and on Nov 13th we had a snow band/squall that migrated from the north came through early last week that covered ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 It's going to get fairly cold over the next week. You might as well just enjoy that and not worry about what happens afterward because if you're looking for model agreement or consistency you won't find it right now. GFS and Euro pretty much agree on a massive torch to Start off December after the upcoming storm/cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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