michsnowfreak Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 LOL 00z GFS unleashes the arctic starting this weekend through the end of the run. After the 12z had us mild in the extended. Gotta love these models. I'm ready for winter. If its a clipper express and lotsa cold, thats the PERFECT scenario for the Christmas season. I could go for skipping the annual upper midwest late Nov blizzard that WAY misses us and then we are stuck with cold, wind, and flurries (and bare ground, unless the lake machine is going) on the storms backside. Would be quite the bonus if we skip right over this and get locked into cold and clippers/overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 LOL 00z GFS unleashes the arctic starting this weekend through the end of the run. After the 12z had us mild in the extended. Gotta love these models. I'm ready for winter. If its a clipper express and lotsa cold, thats the PERFECT scenario for the Christmas season. I could go for skipping the annual upper midwest late Nov blizzard that WAY misses us and then we are stuck with cold, wind, and flurries (and bare ground, unless the lake machine is going) on the storms backside. Would be quite the bonus if we skip right over this and get locked into cold and clippers/overrunning. I wouldn't mind that either but clippers are still hit or miss, especially if they track further south than normal as they have many recent winters (from the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley region, happened several times in 09-10 and 10-11). Cold and dry is worse than warm and dry, imo (though if dry means 1/2 to 3/4 of normal precip, I would take that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 A bad run because there is almost no seperation between the first impulse and the 2nd one. This is classic GFS. There is another difference between the ECMWF on the upstream block that developes, but that isn't my main criticism. I have to agree with you here, the blocking and teleconnections would argue against a flat solution. I think this might just be GFS showing its progressive bias again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I have to agree with you here, the blocking and teleconnections would argue against a flat solution. I think this might just be GFS showing its progressive bias again. Well I will say most of the model runs have been showing an east based -NAO, which would support a GLC or at least an Apps system at the most suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Cold and dry is worse than warm and dry, imo (though if dry means 1/2 to 3/4 of normal precip, I would take that). I made the mistake of saying that if it wasn't going to snow, I'd rather it be warm..... and last year happened. :-| Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I wouldn't mind that either but clippers are still hit or miss, especially if they track further south than normal as they have many recent winters (from the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley region, happened several times in 09-10 and 10-11). Cold and dry is worse than warm and dry, imo (though if dry means 1/2 to 3/4 of normal precip, I would take that). I will take cold and dry (provided there is snowcover) over warm and dry any day. Clippers generally favor our region....in fact, historically, they are the bread and butter of winters in our region. However in recent years we have seen less clippers than normal with many more big storms than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I made the mistake of saying that if it wasn't going to snow, I'd rather it be warm..... and last year happened. :-| If theres one thing that I can say about last years disaster of a winter, it's that everytime it got the chance to snow, it did. But there were so many periods of warmth it never lasted long. Warmth in winter is never, ever good imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I made the mistake of saying that if it wasn't going to snow, I'd rather it be warm..... and last year happened. :-| Well in the Great Lakes, even a warm winter will have a decent amount of snow. We're lucky, unlike the NE major metro areas, who can see winters in the single digits. The horrible winter last year was still slightly above New York City's average snowfall, for example. I just want to see a Midwestern system, not another dry front with everything suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Well I will say most of the model runs have been showing an east based -NAO, which would support a GLC or at least an Apps system at the most suppressed. I'm thinking will see an eastern lakes cutter, which is something in between the 12z EURO/GEM and the 0z GFS tonight. Yeah, I'll take cold and dry over mild and dry any day of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Well in the Great Lakes, even a warm winter will have a decent amount of snow. We're lucky, unlike the NE major metro areas, who can see winters in the single digits. The horrible winter last year was still slightly above New York City's average snowfall, for example. I just want to see a Midwestern system, not another dry front with everything suppressed. Bingo! Used to have some discussions with some of the good climo guys in the NE forum....and basically the bottom line was that the good winters will be a little better on the east coast, but the bad winters will be worse. Our top 10 snowiest and least snowy seasons show that snowfall is much more consistent in the midwest over the east coast. Boston is a city with very comparable annual snowfall to Detroit (low-mid 40s). Winter 2010-11 was a winter with FANTASTIC opportunities all season long for the eastern 1/3 of the nation, and while we all did good, the east coast did better. 2011-12 was as bad a pattern as you could get for winter lovers in the eastern 1/3 of the nation, and while we did bad, the east coast did worse. ......2010-11......2011-12 BOS......81.0".......9.3" DTW.....69.1".....26.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I'm thinking will see an eastern lakes cutter, which is something in between the 12z EURO/GEM and the 0z GFS tonight. Yeah, I'll take cold and dry over mild and dry any day of the winter. I think calling anything this specific this far out is a bit premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I think calling anything this specific this far out is a bit premature. Just an educated guess based off what the models are showing now and what the predicted teleconnections will be a week from now. I know it's going to change 500 times before next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Just an educated guess based off what the models are showing now and what the predicted teleconnections will be a week from now. I know it's going to change 500 times before next week! Well yeah if the GFS is any indicator, that'd be spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Interesting to see tonight's run of the GFS with the full latitude trough, with the only ridge showing up over the far west US (losing the SE ridge completely) Sent me chasing, the control run of the ECMWF ensemble's didn't show it, so I than looked at the 12z mean run of the Euro ensembles. Looking at the 850mb temps and SLP I wonder if the 20/0z run of the GFS isn't the correct idea. Look how far the surface ridge is off the east coast and a Canadian surface high is blasting south. Am I nuts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Looks like the 00z Euro is caving to the GFS, ah well, that's the last seven months in terms of western troughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Looks like the 00z Euro is caving to the GFS, ah well, that's the last seven months in terms of western troughs. I guess the subheading of this thread refers to this winter's panhandle hook potential- next week, next month, next season. I will one up you and do a double bag, even though I think this is far from over- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I guess the subheading of this thread refers to this winter's panhandle hook potential- next week, next month, next season. I will one up you and do a double bag, even though I think this is far from over- Yeah, I mean if there's one good thing, it's that the models have been all over the place, and some teleconnections would favor a more amplified scenario, while others won't, which ever wins out will obviously strongly influence the fate of this wave. The Euro looks to at least get coastal out of it, later in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 We're still like 8 days out...plenty of time for changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 We're still like 8 days out...plenty of time for changes. As indicated by some of the GFS ensemble members I'm seeing roll in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I know the GFS has a big cold bias in the med-long range but wow and what gets charged up in Canada and comes down next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 We're still like 8 days out...plenty of time for changes. lol, yeah. Like usual, let the players play out beforehand. Regardless, some sort of wintry threat in the region looks like a decent possibility at this time range. Watch and wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 As indicated by some of the GFS ensemble members I'm seeing roll in. This doesn't even belong in here, but some of those ensembles look pretty sweet with that clipper system with this first cool shot; three of them look like a good shot of snow through much of Wisconsin on Friday. Talk about a reemergence of what looked like just a dry frontal passage in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Huge piece of energy coming out of the southwest on the Euro at 192...-NAO, Aleutian ridge and weak SE ridging in place... I count no fewer than 7 anomaly minima and 3 anomaly maxima on that map using a pretty conservative definition of both terms... that map is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 So...that's a pretty big change in the models to have to wake up to. Climatology will help out in trying to bring the storm next week back north some, but that clipper that runs out ahead of it will be determinative. If it amplifies as it reaches eastern Canda, there's your 50/50 type low which might induce suppression as modelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 quite a few of the latest GFS ensembles have snow for this subforum. I still find the overall pattern favorable and won't be surprised if someone in the area (anywhere from IA/WI over to OH) sees their first non-trace snow of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 ECMWF ensembles like expected, were all over the place. Some were flat, some were amplified, some were GGEMesque with up and down troughs of no real consequence. The key imo is the sampling of the pacific energy. If it comes in lifeless dead, forget about it anywhere. Just would be a transitionary trough to hell by the current data. The Euro weeklies were flat ugly through the first 3rd of December, so hopefully this mounts to something somewhere in the region. What do you mean by ugly on the weeklies? Dry or warm? Because several days back Harry said the latest weeklies had us below normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 What do you mean by ugly on the weeklies? Dry or warm? Because several days back Harry said the latest weeklies had us below normal temps. I think angry is just being pessimistic. From what I heard over at the NE thread it shows a cold pattern for weeks 3&4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I think angry is just being pessimistic. From what I heard over at the NE thread it shows a cold pattern for weeks 3&4 Yeah a few days back Harry said were in the freezer starting Dec 1st. Thats good, bring on the cold and snow as we get deeper into the Christmas season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 12z euro back north again, gfs ensembles lend little confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 12z euro back north again, gfs ensembles lend little confidence. With the exception of one Euro run a day or so ago, I'm sure not seeing much on the models to get excited about. This latest Euro would just be some modest cold with little precip followed by another warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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