okie333 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Meh... A 50+ dm anomaly over Bering is meh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 35-50dm height anomalies are pretty damn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The warming of the Arctic brought record-setting ice loss this year. How is that ice loss and the warmer Arctic affecting our weather?Our research suggests that the fact that the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the globe is having two effects on the jet stream that play into weather patterns all around the northern hemisphere. One is to reduce the temperature difference between the Arctic and areas farther south, which tends to weaken the west-to-east winds in the jet stream. A weaker flow tends to make the jet stream take larger north-south excursions, just like a river tends to meander more as it flows across a shallow-sloped coastal plain. The other effect is to stretch the northward peaks of waves in the jets stream farther north, which enhances the size of the waves and consequently the chances of blocking patterns, like we're seeing now in the conditions steering Sandy. Both of these effects of Arctic warming tend to make the jet stream wavier, and as those waves get larger, they tend to move more slowly, which means the weather associated with them also moves more slowly...leading to increased chances of the types of extreme weather associated with "stuck" weather patterns. http://citizensclimatelobby.org/content/q-role-global-warming-plays-extreme-weather-such-hurricane-sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Very tight baroclinic zone setting up early next week. 00z Euro shows 850s ranging from +14C at Amarillo TX to -10C just north in Liberal KS at 216hrs. +10C to -16C from southeast KS to northwest KS. Should see something nice organize along this zone at some point. The timing of the shortwaves is still probably a little dicey this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Very tight baroclinic zone setting up early next week. 00z Euro shows 850s ranging from +14C at Amarillo TX to -10C just north in Liberal KS at 216hrs. +10C to -16C from southeast KS to northwest KS. Should see something nice organize along this zone at some point. The timing of the shortwaves is still probably a little dicey this far out. yep definitely looks like a window for something interesting is opening up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 http://citizensclima...hurricane-sandy Nice find Alek. Sounds like that is a good logical conclusion. - Yeah that 26th-30th time frame looks promising for a short wave to become something interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Not everything is in place yet, but next week at least looks mildly interesting per the GFS. Need the time/magnitude of the -EPO/-NAO transition to be resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Not everything is in place yet, but next week at least looks mildly interesting per the GFS. Need the time/magnitude of the -EPO/-NAO transition to be resolved. Some of the mets on the NE forum (Typhoon Tip) like the idea of a further south trend. Not to mention the GEFS look nice too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Some of the mets on the NE forum (Typhoon Tip) like the idea of a further south trend. Not to mention the GEFS look nice too. Yeah, I've been following that thread. I remember this time last year (maybe it was a little later) and how steadfast the GFS was in a rocking start to December. We all know how that turned out. So I think it's important not to go "all in" with a pattern change yet. But the players are definitely there. Just have to sit back and see how this all comes together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Yeah, I've been following that thread. I remember this time last year (maybe it was a little later) and how steadfast the GFS was in a rocking start to December. We all know how that turned out. So I think it's important not to go "all in" with a pattern change yet. But the players are definitely there. Just have to sit back and see how this all comes together. Well for starters this years pattern is nowhere even near to last years pattern. And I remember the GFS I think it was showing like 3 major snowfalls in 2 weeks Good ole GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Well for starters this years pattern is nowhere even near to last years pattern. And I remember the GFS I think it was showing like 3 major snowfalls in 2 weeks Good ole GFS I remember that! Trigger happy GFS! Hopefully with the lack of snow systems in the medium range - the region will have some surprise ones show up as we get within D5 timeframe! Been following the NE winter talk as well. Plenty of interesting scenarios that could play out in the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Huge piece of energy coming out of the southwest on the Euro at 192...-NAO, Aleutian ridge and weak SE ridging in place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 euro certainly has a powerhouse storm during the timeframe being talked about. gfs and euro in pretty good agreement on ridic 500 mb anomalies over the bering strait edit: long range pattern become amp'd like whoa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 12z EURO shows that storm ejecting out of the SW and tracking over Chicago on the 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 12z EURO shows that storm ejecting out of the SW and tracking over Chicago on the 27th. without getting into storm specifics, it does look like the conus as a whole will be breaking out of these doldrums in a big way in about 7-10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 12z Euro has a beauty for parts of the area...the LL cyclone really bombs as it rockets northeast between 192 and 216... I'd like to see the 204 hr frame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Ryan Maue posted the 12z ECMWF for 216 hours (9 days). Wow! 983mb for Milwaukee!!! https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/270607329769177088/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The Euro is probably right on the trough axis. GFS looks to suppressed at this point. Then we might have quite the system on our hands, like I said, in terms of svr wx, I'd like to see the 204 hr frame on the Euro, because I feel it would look pretty impressive (as if the 12-18" of snow in WI isn't already). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Then we might have quite the system on our hands, like I said, in terms of svr wx, I'd like to see the 204 hr frame on the Euro, because I feel it would look pretty impressive (as if the 12-18" of snow in WI isn't already). There's a sub 1000 mb surface low in MO at that time with mid 50's dewpoints into central IL. Certainly a dynamic system but thermos questionable. Considering how many setups have found a way to peter out this year that might be the way to lean until proven otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 There's a sub 1000 mb surface low in MO at that time with mid 50's dewpoints into central IL. Certainly a dynamic system but thermos questionable. Considering how many setups have found a way to peter out this year that might be the way to lean until proven otherwise. The return flow out of the Gulf doesn't look bad, with nice positioning of the sub-tropical ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Wow at the system next week guys. Massive MKE cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Wow at the system next week guys. Massive MKE cutter. Perfect timing for Michigan's opening of the trail system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Boundary waters MN get a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Perfect timing for Michigan's opening of the trail system. Looks like Tee-shirt weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 And this is the 00z GFS...lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 And this is the 00z GFS...lol... Remember what the GFS stands for: Go Far South. This is so typical of its bias, but seemingly it has been since 2010-11 since it has been exhibited. The funny thing is JB has been riding the Euro due to its potential for an East Coast Snowstorm, now the GFS looks like it has snow for the Interior, so JB will probably ride it instead of the Euro. Big mistake if he does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 There is some room for the energy coming out of the west early next week to cut into the lakes...but the -NAO looks like it will come on a little earlier and stronger than previously thought, so there isn't a whole lot of ridging in place between the western US/-PNA trough and the trough along the east coast early next week. The polar vortex being split by the blocking, which is now a fairly well agreed upon scenario, is also speeding the flow up across much of the CONUS and will make things harder to buckle. So although we will have cold in place with high amplitude energy moving out of the west and an active sub-tropical jet, evidenced by the lower than normal heights off the southwest coast, we will need a really strong phase right as this the trough is ejecting into the Plains for this to cut into the Great Lakes. It's certainly possible but probably the less likely solution at this time. I do think that if we don't see the big storm idea pan out the ejecting energy may still result in an overrunning situation on the nice gradient that will be developing. Another alternate solution is the system doesn't phase/go negative tilt until it rounds the base of the polar vortex as it near the Ohio Valley and we do see a more amplified storm play out farther east...but not into the Lakes. So while I think all options are still on the table...if I had to choose I'd lean towards a weaker storm/over running solution over a nasty cutter early next week at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 And this is the 00z GFS...lol... Not the wrapped up solution but a snow event for the Ohio Valley on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 0z GFS was a bad run. Bad in the sense of it being a fluke in your mind, or bad in the obvious sense that it isn't looking like a strong storm based on the run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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