Chicago WX Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 One last one as I did for Chicago, Detroit, Indy, MSP, and St. Louis...10 snowiest Decembers for Toronto (1948 to present). Snowfall from those months per the downtown data that Mike sent me awhile ago. Statistical indices. NAO, AO, and PDO. 1951: +1.13, +1.99, -1.68 1968: -1.39, -0.78, -1.27 1970: -1.20, -0.40, -0.97 1973: +0.21, -0.18, -0.76 1975: -0.09, +1.29, -1.61 1977: -1.02, -0.24, -0.69 1979: +0.84, +1.30, -0.42 2000: -0.63, -2.35, +0.52 2007: +0.23, +0.82, -0.58 2008: -0.35, +0.65, -0.87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 As always, nice work Tim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 That's an insanely strong ridge over the Bering Sea, over a 500 dm positive anomaly, also note the analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 That's an insanely strong ridge over the Bering Sea, over a 500 dm positive anomaly, also note the analogs. A lot of those winters/following springs went on to produce big severe weather events, but not sure if that's what you were getting at. As far as the upcoming winter - and I'll admit it is mostly gut feeling behind this - it feels like something extreme is going to happen in the eastern 1/2 of the US...whether it's a historic arctic outbreak, huge blizzard, I don't know, just a feeling I'm having. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 A lot of those winters/following springs went on to produce big severe weather events, but not sure if that's what you were getting at. As far as the upcoming winter - and I'll admit it is mostly gut feeling behind this - it feels like something extreme is going to happen in the eastern 1/2 of the US...whether it's a historic arctic outbreak, huge blizzard, I don't know, just a feeling I'm having. That's what I was getting at, if these analogs keep showing up, there are some impressive events that happened in nearly all of those years (1965, 1974 and 2011 all there to boot, not to mention 1967 for GL/OV folks). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 A lot of those winters/following springs went on to produce big severe weather events, but not sure if that's what you were getting at. As far as the upcoming winter - and I'll admit it is mostly gut feeling behind this - it feels like something extreme is going to happen in the eastern 1/2 of the US...whether it's a historic arctic outbreak, huge blizzard, I don't know, just a feeling I'm having. 1966-67, 1973-74, 1995-96, and 2010-11 all had pretty big winter storms somewhere in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 And of course, 1966-67 would satisfy your ice storm fetish for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Mixed results locally for the years above. 67 had a significant ice storm in LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 And of course, 1966-67 would satisfy your ice storm fetish for LAF. lol, you read my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 lol, you read my mind. So weird sometimes. Dec 1973 of course had one of the biggest snowstorms for LAF (17"). The rest of that winter was rather blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Geos, you are everywhere! For the past year I've been working on a way to utilize the knowledge of cycling weather patterns. While I know there will be better ways to present the massive amounts of data in future renditions, with potential future partners, I decided I needed to pull the trigger with what I had built to see how it would perform in a real time environment. The host website will likely always be "under construction" but under most circumstances will always be in production. I invite everyone reading to gander at what I think our cycling weather patterns have to offer for weather and climate forecasting... Just a bunch of numbers presented in a static graph. Click on the list above the first temp/preicp graph and you can mash the forecast numbers in the way it allows you. http://www.theplayer...ends/index.html No matter the outcome, it will be a joy to follow the cycling weather patterns and watch the trends come alive or die. Lol, I guess I am. Good stuff. Nice to see a wintry period around Christmas. Looks like the AO is going to tank in the 15 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 One last one as I did for Chicago, Detroit, Indy, MSP, and St. Louis...10 snowiest Decembers for Toronto (1948 to present). Snowfall from those months per the downtown data that Mike sent me awhile ago. Statistical indices. NAO, AO, and PDO. 1951: +1.13, +1.99, -1.68 1968: -1.39, -0.78, -1.27 1970: -1.20, -0.40, -0.97 1973: +0.21, -0.18, -0.76 1975: -0.09, +1.29, -1.61 1977: -1.02, -0.24, -0.69 1979: +0.84, +1.30, -0.42 2000: -0.63, -2.35, +0.52 2007: +0.23, +0.82, -0.58 2008: -0.35, +0.65, -0.87 Amazing analysis, much appreciated. In my opinion, i believe the pattern through the end of November and through the first week of December will be sort of gradient with cold anomalies locked across the West and the North towards the Hudson and warm anomalies visible across the South, sort of like Dec 2007 and early Dec 2000. Such a pattern yields in storms, so lets see what happens. The subtropical jet is key, given the rapid warming across the Western regions we'll see what sort of pattern shapes up for the next few weeks. But I have confident December may end up below normal across a large part of the Lakes area esp with the NAO and AO forecasted to tank and the massive anomaly over the Aleutians expected to develop, certainly not a 2011-2012 thus far. I think we may cash in between Nov 25 and Dec 5 across the Lakes with perhaps clippers interacting with the Gulf, before i believe the pattern will favor a slightly further south track, lets see what ends up happening. PDO seems to have tanked again with the massive spike in the Global AAM, hmph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I would take that with a grain of salt. NCEP ensembles have been horrible lately. Yes! I think the AO will flirt between neutral and slightly negative near the end of the month through early December, with the pattern being progressive but the models do seem to agree upon a sinking NAO though a more East Based anomaly than a West based anomaly which favors our region. Hmph, PNA stays negative however through the next 10-15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 12z GFS really hitting the gradient pattern in the longer term. Yep. Unfortunately, verbatim, there is short-term pain before the long-term gain. In particular, all of the snow cover in the U.S. and southern Canada disappears by day 6-8. But beggars can't be choosers, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Looking ahead to December, here are the composites of the top 10 snowiest Decembers, from 1948 to 2011, for Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, Minneapolis (11 years due to a tie at #10), and St. Louis. As you can see, Chicago and Minneapolis share common looks, while the same is true for Indy and St. Louis...of course their respective locations make this "make sense" I guess. Detroit is a bit different, looking at Greenland. There are a few Decembers that are shared by all five sites. But this is just for fun really, but maybe something to look at in the future. Chicago Detroit Indianapolis Minneapolis St. Louis And finally, surface temperature composites for all five sites, using the same years as above. All five are fairly similar, but the colder anomalies for Chicago, Detroit, and Minneapolis look to be a touch farther west...looking up towards the Dakotas and NW of there. Chicago Detroit Indianapolis Minneapolis St. Louis Fantastic work as always Tim! One correction for Detroits 10 snowiest Decembers since 1948 though.....1975 should be on there, 1961 should not. 1961 was actually a very quiet Dec snow-wise. Top 10 since 1948 should read: 1951, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1981 1983, 2000, 2005, 2008 Rather than: 1951, 1961, 1973, 1974, 1977, 1981 1983, 2000, 2005, 2008 So basically, you had 9 right but the 1 was wrong. I wonder if the addition of 1975 (19.8") and subtraction of 1961 (5.0") will affect the graph much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 1966-67, 1973-74, 1995-96, and 2010-11 all had pretty big winter storms somewhere in the region. Actually I think everyone of the years andy listed did. 1956-57 saw Detroits biggest snowstorm of the '50s (9.0") (yes, believe it or not, the '40s and '50s had no official 10"+ storms) and 1964-65 saw Detroits biggest snowstorm of the '60s (11.0", but the drifting & some higher totals paralyzed the region). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 lots of good and bad analogs being tossed around here for this winter. My guess was is if we don't get a month with at least 20" of snow we wont have any chance of hitting normal snowfall. I'll go double or nothing (smh) the money I still owe Timmy that MKE wont's have one inch of snow on the ground for Christmas Think 40's and kite flying weather. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I would take that with a grain of salt. NCEP ensembles have been horrible lately. Yes! I think the AO will flirt between neutral and slightly negative near the end of the month through early December, with the pattern being progressive but the models do seem to agree upon a sinking NAO though a more East Based anomaly than a West based anomaly which favors our region. Hmph, PNA stays negative however through the next 10-15 days. Some of the ensembles, no doubt are overdone. Thinking betwene 0 and -1 is a good bet the last week of the month. Bering Sea/Aleutian Ridge has to build up first and nose it's way into the Polar regions before we'd see anything under -1. That AK ridge is the key to our winter I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Fantastic work as always Tim! One correction for Detroits 10 snowiest Decembers since 1948 though.....1975 should be on there, 1961 should not. 1961 was actually a very quiet Dec snow-wise. Top 10 since 1948 should read: 1951, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1981 1983, 2000, 2005, 2008 Rather than: 1951, 1961, 1973, 1974, 1977, 1981 1983, 2000, 2005, 2008 So basically, you had 9 right but the 1 was wrong. I wonder if the addition of 1975 (19.8") and subtraction of 1961 (5.0") will affect the graph much? Jesus. I screwed up Detroit's maps 3 times last night...still couldn't get it right. My bad. Ok, I think we're good now with the years/maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 lots of good and bad analogs being tossed around here for this winter. My guess was is if we don't get a month with at least 20" of snow we wont have any chance of hitting normal snowfall. I'll go double or nothing (smh) the money I still owe Timmy that MKE wont's have one inch of snow on the ground for Christmas Think 40's and kite flying weather. . Well, I told you we were good. But, it's a bet. To be exact, just for fun, 6" OTG at MKE on December 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Jesus. I screwed up Detroit's maps 3 times last night...still couldn't get it right. My bad. Ok, I think we're good now with the years/maps. Hey no biggie..I LOVE all the maps and stuff you do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Well, I told you we were good. But, it's a bet. To be exact, just for fun, 6" OTG at MKE on December 25. Tim ftw! Although, I need not tell people that a White Christmas isnt necessarily a good or bad omen for winter. For the hell of it...Christmas 1874, 1880, and 1977 were bare in Detroit...and those were 3 of the most brutal (cold+snow) winters on record for Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 DT a bit excited. (I just am hoping for anything to get rid of the boredom.) *** ALERT *** POTENTIAL IS BUILDING FOR EARLY SEASON SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY and the NORTHEAST NOV 28-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 DT a bit excited. (I just am hoping for anything to get rid of the boredom.) *** ALERT *** POTENTIAL IS BUILDING FOR EARLY SEASON SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY and the NORTHEAST NOV 28-30 I'm looking at that storm as well, but I think it is more likely to be a cutter, and if it's not, a good chance it is just a cold rain frontal passage with backside flurries or light snow showers for most. I guess a Noreaster may result, but I'm not sure. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it is your token late November/early December Upper Midwest blizzard that cuts through Milwaukee or Green Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I'm looking at that storm as well, but I think it is more likely to be a cutter, and if it's not, a good chance it is just a cold rain frontal passage with backside flurries or light snow showers for most. I guess a Noreaster may result, but I'm not sure. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it is your token late November/early December Upper Midwest blizzard that cuts through Milwaukee or Green Bay. Yeah that looks like a decent shot at wintry weather. Noticed on the 18z GFS, the lower lakes could catch a little snow on the 27th. Last 3 days of the month look like winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Yeah that looks like a decent shot at wintry weather. Noticed on the 18z GFS, the lower lakes could catch a little snow on the 27th. Last 3 days of the month look like winter! And wouldn't that be so appropriate and typical, seems like it happens so abruptly like this most years, never a gradual transition into more wintry conditions, a sudden switch from a mild, relatively snowless first two thirds of November into a cold and frequently snowy December (last year notwithstanding). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Lol a 570 dm ridge on the Euro ensembles in the Bering Sea? That's nuts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Meh... You have to remember, there will be a short mild shot between the late week cooldown and the next system that could be (emphasis on 'could') coming with some cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 That's an insanely strong ridge over the Bering Sea, over a 500 dm positive anomaly, also note the analogs. Each line is 30, so it's more like 350 m (NOT dm... a 350 dm anomaly would be crazy, not that a 350 m anomaly isn't impressive, especially for an 11-day mean of 4 ensemble runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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