IWXwx Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 The weather has been boring in our subforum lately. When it gets this benign, talk invariably turns to what's down the road. Some people really like to follow these long range models, while others feel that it's just clogging up the monthly discussion threads. Why not have a thread dedicated to discussing the long term forecast, say, more than 7 days out? I feel this would be a good compromise. It would clear up the other disco threads for observations, short-term discussions, general banter, etc. Also, this thread would allow a compilation of posts of the long range Euro, GFS, CFS, etc. all in an easy-to-find place. Although I'm not a fan of long range forecasts for anything other than determining trends, It would be easy to come here, check out the previously posted maps, and do an cursory evaluation on verification. If this is acceptable, post away. If not, Hoosier should feel free to delete this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 I don't see how this thread would be unacceptable since Tropical posted one for Summer 2013 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 For funsies, we should all either save images or upload them to a hosting site, rather than just posting links, so that in winter we can look back and see how the long-range predictions verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 1, 2012 Author Share Posted October 1, 2012 They're pretty darn certain that the Midwest will be below normal. The question will be how far below normal. Will I be able to quit mowing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 I'd put some serious money on the pattern relaxing after the 15th. Ensembles all show it, Euro and GFS are again in great agreement out to 240, they both have the big old closed low moving in from the west coast which would force the northern stream into a more zonal pattern. 12z GFS in extreme la-la land has the pattern going completely and utterly massive neg PNA with a +NAO. of course we all know how well 300 plus hour fprogs work out, but the signs are all there. I'm pretty sure we haven't seen our last 70s up here, and i'd bet the farm we get a couple day "torch" the last week or so of October. You can see it coming on the ensembles, you can see it coming on the CPC 8-14. You coulod even see it coming on the week 4 CFS if you trust that worthless model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 1, 2012 Author Share Posted October 1, 2012 I'd put some serious money on the pattern relaxing after the 15th. Ensembles all show it, Euro and GFS are again in great agreement out to 240, they both have the big old closed low moving in from the west coast which would force the northern stream into a more zonal pattern. 12z GFS in extreme la-la land has the pattern going completely and utterly massive neg PNA with a +NAO. of course we all know how well 300 plus hour fprogs work out, but the signs are all there. I'm pretty sure we haven't seen our last 70s up here, and i'd bet the farm we get a couple day "torch" the last week or so of October. You can see it coming on the ensembles, you can see it coming on the CPC 8-14. You coulod even see it coming on the week 4 CFS if you trust that worthless model... The State Climate Office at Purdue agrees with this assessment according to a press release, at least for Indiana. "Temperatures could remain cool through early October but may turn warm later in the month. The warm weather pattern could continue through November." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Again, GFS and Euro in scary agreement out to 240. There have been times this year when they both do pretty well but to look almost the same all the way to 240 is pretty cool. If they're right could have a couple day "torch" in the plains/midwest with some thunderstorms around the 12- 16th. La la land, yes, but again, scary agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Dont put your shorts away. My idea for the mid month period.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 I think for this month, the negative departures will relax mid-month and by the time we get to the last week of the month, most of us will have a bit of Indian Summer with some 70s. I don't think will have sustained warmth very far into November though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Just for entertainment purposes only, check out the next octobomb on the 06 GFS at the end of the run. Like I said, entertainment purposes only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Who knew the National Parks Service did a winter outlook... http://www.nps.gov/k...-statistics.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Who knew the National Parks Service did a winter outlook... http://www.nps.gov/k...-statistics.htm Gosh, another weenie NE forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Who knew the National Parks Service did a winter outlook... http://www.nps.gov/k...-statistics.htm Never seen a map with an above normal temperature area sandwiched in between to cool areas - all in the eastern 1/2 of the country! How does that work?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 This would be cool if they both moved in these directions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Brett Anderson on analogs: "BTW, I am personally not a fan of using analog years before 1990 as the overall climate pattern has changed (warmed) significantly in the northern hemisphere, especially above 50 degrees north since then." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Brett Anderson on analogs: "BTW, I am personally not a fan of using analog years before 1990 as the overall climate pattern has changed (warmed) significantly in the northern hemisphere, especially above 50 degrees north since then." That is an inspirational quote. I shall remember it forever and use it always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Brett Anderson on analogs: "BTW, I am personally not a fan of using analog years before 1990 as the overall climate pattern has changed (warmed) significantly in the northern hemisphere, especially above 50 degrees north since then." One problem with that - you will hardly have any analog years to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Brett Anderson on analogs: "BTW, I am personally not a fan of using analog years before 1990 as the overall climate pattern has changed (warmed) significantly in the northern hemisphere, especially above 50 degrees north since then." you forgot to post his interpretation of the new ECMWX weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 you forgot to post his interpretation of the new ECMWX weeklies. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Brett Anderson on analogs: "BTW, I am personally not a fan of using analog years before 1990 as the overall climate pattern has changed (warmed) significantly in the northern hemisphere, especially above 50 degrees north since then." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 I see that Brett is choosing 2008-2009 as a winter analog. We were close to neutral, slightly La Niña that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Don't agree with you often Andy, lol, but I a 100% with you on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 November keeps getting less and less red. Every time it updates... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Brett Anderson on analogs: "BTW, I am personally not a fan of using analog years before 1990 as the overall climate pattern has changed (warmed) significantly in the northern hemisphere, especially above 50 degrees north since then." I am sorry but if he did actually say this, that is completely foolish of him, to take only the last 22 years of data and toss everything else out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 I am sorry but if he did actually say this, that is completely foolish of him, to take only the last 22 years of data and toss everything else out. Ridiculous. Holy tamales. Look at the pattern the 12z GFS brings back to the midwest after next weekend's warm up/storm. It's not going to happen, obviously. It couldn't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Ridiculous. Holy tamales. Look at the pattern the 12z GFS brings back to the midwest after next weekend's warm up/storm. It's not going to happen, obviously. It couldn't... That would be a wet weekend region-wide! Quite a storm track setting up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 That would be a wet weekend region-wide! Yeah next Saturday looks wet/stormy. I just find it hard to believe what that goofy model does afterwards. -6 850s out in fantasy land. Wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 That would be a wet weekend region-wide! Quite a storm track setting up! Looks like our stereotypical fall wind/rain storm. Probably too difficult for it to reach Octobomb levels, but you never know. I hope it goes north of the area if anything because most of the rain has been south recently, and I want some hope for storm systems this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Looks like our stereotypical fall wind/rain storm. Probably too difficult for it to reach Octobomb levels, but you never know. I hope it goes north of the area if anything because most of the rain has been south recently, and I want some hope for storm systems this winter. Euro takes it south. Imagine that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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