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Extratropical Storm Rainfall


WilkesboroDude

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Tropical Storm Norman has formed this morning near the tip of Baja, Mexico, and promises to be a potent rain-maker for Mexico and the Southern U.S. Norman's moisture will feed the formation of an extratropical storm that will form in South Texas on Saturday. The storm's center will potentially move over the Northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday, but the storm will probably not have enough time over water to convert to a tropical system. The storm will bring heavy flooding rains to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Flooding has already been observed in West Texas this morning. Midland-Odessa picked up 3.12” of rain so far today, making it the 3rd wettest September day on record. The wettest day in city history is August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.

- Dr. Jeff Masters

http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

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No radar...darn.

Equipment...

the kfcx Doppler radar which serves the Roanoke and surrounding

area is tentatively scheduled to be taken down for several days

beginning Monday October 1st for its upgrade to dual polarization

technology.

THE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG RADAR WILL BE UPGRADED IN MID OCTOBER...AND

THE RALEIGH RADAR IN NOVEMBER.

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7-DAY FORECAST

  • Tonight

    A slight chance of showers before 10pm. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 51. Light northwest wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

  • Sunday

    Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

  • Sunday Night

    A chance of rain after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

  • Monday

    Rain, mainly after 8am. High near 59. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

  • Monday Night

    Showers. Low around 58. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

  • Tuesday

    Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

  • Tuesday Night

    A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

  • Wednesday

    A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 69. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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NWS Blacksburg

During the day Monday...the precipitation will continue to

overspread the area and low level winds will back southeast and

increase to around 30-40 kts at 850 mb. This will place an upslope

maximum of precipitation coverage and quantitative precipitation forecast numbers along the crest of

th Blue Ridge. This pattern will continue into Monday evening before

wind veer more southwesterly through the night.

Tuesday morning...the triple Point of the surface features is

prognosticated to cross the forecast area. This will place the eastern and

southeastern sections in a position for the potential for storms and

severe weather. Shear will be high with relatively Low Cape values.

Will have the highest chances of precipitation along and east of the

propagation of the surface cold front.

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Equipment...

the kfcx Doppler radar which serves the Roanoke and surrounding

area is tentatively scheduled to be taken down for approximately

six days beginning Monday October 1st for its upgrade to dual

polarization technology. However...the upgrade may be postponed

until later in the week (wednesday) due to significant weather

expected on Monday and Tuesday.

A final decision for when the system will actually be brought

down will be made on Monday morning...and will be reflected in this

section and in a public information statement to be released

before noon on Monday.

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NWS Blacksburg

Monday night...the surface low will track through the Tennessee

Valley north into the Ohio Valley. Increasing 850 mb winds to around

30 to 40 kts will back southeast...having their origin off the Gulf

of Mexico and then off the coast of the Carolina. Plenty of moisture

in the form of a thick cloud canopy and upslope precipitation is

expected. Have categorical probability of precipitation just about everywhere save areas

along and east of a Buckingham to Danville Virginia line. As winds

head downslope into central West Virginia...areas from Tazewell Virginia

to Bluefield Virginia will experience some wind gusts around 30

miles per hour...especially at the higher elevations. Believe at this time

speeds will be under advisory criteria. Precipitation amounts will

be greatest along and west of a Lynchburg Virginia to Reidsville

North Carolina line. Monday night an average rainfall total of four

to six tenths of an inch is likely. Areas along and just east of the

crest of the Blue Ridge may receive one to two inch range thanks to

the effects of upslope wind maximized there.

On Tuesday...the systems associated cold front will move through the

region. The focus for the best coverage of precipitation shifts to

the eastern half of the region in advance of the moving cold front.

Precipitation totals in the east are expected to average three to

six tenths of an inch. Instability is expected to increase from

midday and Onward in advance of the front...with the best

instability across Southside Virginia and neighboring sections of

north central North Carolina...west to the North Carolina foothills.

Here scattered storms are expected by the afternoon. Strong shear

and minimal cape values may set the stage for low topped supercells

across the southeast part of the forecast area.

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Looks like TN is going to get some godo rains but right now WNC is getting shafted.

Blacksburg is bumping up the timing for rain here in north-western NC. It was not suspose to start now anyway I don't believe.

Near term /through Monday/...

as of 855 PM EDT Sunday...

Thicker high cloud canopy continues to spread NE across the region

this evening associated with shearing high level moisture on the

north side of the Gulf states upper system. Expect this trend to

prevail overnight with moisture deepening from the SW espcly after

midnight as the leading edge of isentropic lift arrives. May see

clouds thin a bit up north given confluence aloft with the northern

stream jet that has also pushed a faint boundary toward southeast wva

where seeing some lower strato-cumulus persist. -Ra not too far away

from the SW County Warning Area with the leading edge over SW NC/northern Georgia but

latest evening soundings show extensive dry air to overcome espcly

aloft with precipitable waters below one half inch off the rnk radiosonde observation at this time.

However just about all new short term guidance...as well as the

latest NAM...show the precipitation reaching the ground across the northwest NC

ridges before daybreak and the I-81 corridor between 8-10 am Monday.

Thus adjusted timing up by an hour or two SW late tonight and

expanded likely/Cat probability of precipitation faster across the west Monday morning

when the strong band of lift arrives. Temperatures likely to only fall a

few more degrees unless clouds thin some so bumped up in spots

again over the west despite little rise in dewpoints until the

precipitation arrives early Monday.

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....THE FORECAST FOR GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN NC AT 5946 FT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...CLOUDY. RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AFTER

MIDNIGHT. IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH

AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 31 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.MONDAY...CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG. RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE CLOUDS ALL

DAY. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 42 MPH.

.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN SHOWERS AFTER

MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 50. SOUTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH...DECREASING

TO 20 TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 43 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTH

WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH.

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PUB.gif Public Information Statement PUB.gif

Statement as of 8:52 am EDT on October 1, 2012

Subject: WSR-88D dual polarization modification of kfcx radar

scheduled for Monday October 1 2012 is being postponed.

The kfcx radar... located in Floyd County Virginia and operated by

the National Weather Service in Blacksburg Virginia... was

scheduled to undergo dual polarization modification today. Due to

expected weather conditions today and Tuesday... the modification

has been pushed back to Wednesday October 3 2012.

Beginning on Wednesday... the radar will be inoperable

for as many as 12 days during this modification... but more likely

only 6-8 days. During this time the kfcx radar will be off line

and no data will be available. The neighboring Doppler radars at

Sterling VA (klwx)... Wakefield VA (kakq)... Raleigh NC

(krax)... Greenville- Spartanburg SC (kgsp)... Morristown TN

(kmrx)... and Charleston WV (krlx) will continue to provide

coverage over parts of the kfcx area during the installation.

This modification is part of an upgrade to the National Weather

Service network of radars. So far... surrounding radars that have

already upgraded to dual polarization technology include Sterling

VA... Wakefield VA... Morristown TN... and Charleston WV. The

Greenville-Spartanburg radar will be upgraded in mid October... and

the Raleigh radar in November. Dual polarization technology will

give forecasters more information about precipitation

type... shape... size... and intensity. This will lead to better

detection of heavy rainfall... the presence of hail in

thunderstorms... precipitation type during winter weather

events... as well as better estimates of rain and snowfall

accumulations in many situations.

For more information contact:

Steve keighton

science and operations officer

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

[email protected]

540-552-1041 ext. 224

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