WilkesboroDude Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Tropical Storm Norman has formed this morning near the tip of Baja, Mexico, and promises to be a potent rain-maker for Mexico and the Southern U.S. Norman's moisture will feed the formation of an extratropical storm that will form in South Texas on Saturday. The storm's center will potentially move over the Northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday, but the storm will probably not have enough time over water to convert to a tropical system. The storm will bring heavy flooding rains to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Flooding has already been observed in West Texas this morning. Midland-Odessa picked up 3.12” of rain so far today, making it the 3rd wettest September day on record. The wettest day in city history is August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell. - Dr. Jeff Masters http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 28, 2012 Author Share Posted September 28, 2012 No radar...darn. Equipment... the kfcx Doppler radar which serves the Roanoke and surrounding area is tentatively scheduled to be taken down for several days beginning Monday October 1st for its upgrade to dual polarization technology. THE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG RADAR WILL BE UPGRADED IN MID OCTOBER...AND THE RALEIGH RADAR IN NOVEMBER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 29, 2012 Author Share Posted September 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 30, 2012 Author Share Posted September 30, 2012 7-DAY FORECAST Tonight A slight chance of showers before 10pm. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 51. Light northwest wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Sunday Night A chance of rain after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Rain, mainly after 8am. High near 59. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Monday Night Showers. Low around 58. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Tuesday Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 69. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 30, 2012 Author Share Posted September 30, 2012 NWS Blacksburg During the day Monday...the precipitation will continue to overspread the area and low level winds will back southeast and increase to around 30-40 kts at 850 mb. This will place an upslope maximum of precipitation coverage and quantitative precipitation forecast numbers along the crest of th Blue Ridge. This pattern will continue into Monday evening before wind veer more southwesterly through the night. Tuesday morning...the triple Point of the surface features is prognosticated to cross the forecast area. This will place the eastern and southeastern sections in a position for the potential for storms and severe weather. Shear will be high with relatively Low Cape values. Will have the highest chances of precipitation along and east of the propagation of the surface cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 30, 2012 Author Share Posted September 30, 2012 Equipment... the kfcx Doppler radar which serves the Roanoke and surrounding area is tentatively scheduled to be taken down for approximately six days beginning Monday October 1st for its upgrade to dual polarization technology. However...the upgrade may be postponed until later in the week (wednesday) due to significant weather expected on Monday and Tuesday. A final decision for when the system will actually be brought down will be made on Monday morning...and will be reflected in this section and in a public information statement to be released before noon on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 30, 2012 Author Share Posted September 30, 2012 NWS Blacksburg Monday night...the surface low will track through the Tennessee Valley north into the Ohio Valley. Increasing 850 mb winds to around 30 to 40 kts will back southeast...having their origin off the Gulf of Mexico and then off the coast of the Carolina. Plenty of moisture in the form of a thick cloud canopy and upslope precipitation is expected. Have categorical probability of precipitation just about everywhere save areas along and east of a Buckingham to Danville Virginia line. As winds head downslope into central West Virginia...areas from Tazewell Virginia to Bluefield Virginia will experience some wind gusts around 30 miles per hour...especially at the higher elevations. Believe at this time speeds will be under advisory criteria. Precipitation amounts will be greatest along and west of a Lynchburg Virginia to Reidsville North Carolina line. Monday night an average rainfall total of four to six tenths of an inch is likely. Areas along and just east of the crest of the Blue Ridge may receive one to two inch range thanks to the effects of upslope wind maximized there. On Tuesday...the systems associated cold front will move through the region. The focus for the best coverage of precipitation shifts to the eastern half of the region in advance of the moving cold front. Precipitation totals in the east are expected to average three to six tenths of an inch. Instability is expected to increase from midday and Onward in advance of the front...with the best instability across Southside Virginia and neighboring sections of north central North Carolina...west to the North Carolina foothills. Here scattered storms are expected by the afternoon. Strong shear and minimal cape values may set the stage for low topped supercells across the southeast part of the forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 30, 2012 Author Share Posted September 30, 2012 Looking healthy and strong...and on que. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Yep big blob of rain coming through up towards this way. Should get some nice totals from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Yep big blob of rain coming through up towards this way. Should get some nice totals from this. Going to be a nice end to a dry month and a nice start to October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Rain falling has never sounded so good as it does right now this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 a very "fallish" feel to the air here in northeast TN, light winds and pretty cool with rain heading in. Congrats to all who have been in need of rain. This one looks like a soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Going to be a nice end to a dry month and a nice start to October. Ya it will. Pretty good amount of land that this swath is covering. Seems like tonight and tomorrow could be the best bet for getting some good soaking rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 a very "fallish" feel to the air here in northeast TN, light winds and pretty cool with rain heading in. Congrats to all who have been in need of rain. This one looks like a soaker. Ya very nice for this tiem of the year. Highs in the 60s with cloud cover and some light rain. Just as October should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Looks like TN is going to get some godo rains but right now WNC is getting shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 1, 2012 Author Share Posted October 1, 2012 Looks like TN is going to get some godo rains but right now WNC is getting shafted. Blacksburg is bumping up the timing for rain here in north-western NC. It was not suspose to start now anyway I don't believe. Near term /through Monday/... as of 855 PM EDT Sunday... Thicker high cloud canopy continues to spread NE across the region this evening associated with shearing high level moisture on the north side of the Gulf states upper system. Expect this trend to prevail overnight with moisture deepening from the SW espcly after midnight as the leading edge of isentropic lift arrives. May see clouds thin a bit up north given confluence aloft with the northern stream jet that has also pushed a faint boundary toward southeast wva where seeing some lower strato-cumulus persist. -Ra not too far away from the SW County Warning Area with the leading edge over SW NC/northern Georgia but latest evening soundings show extensive dry air to overcome espcly aloft with precipitable waters below one half inch off the rnk radiosonde observation at this time. However just about all new short term guidance...as well as the latest NAM...show the precipitation reaching the ground across the northwest NC ridges before daybreak and the I-81 corridor between 8-10 am Monday. Thus adjusted timing up by an hour or two SW late tonight and expanded likely/Cat probability of precipitation faster across the west Monday morning when the strong band of lift arrives. Temperatures likely to only fall a few more degrees unless clouds thin some so bumped up in spots again over the west despite little rise in dewpoints until the precipitation arrives early Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Ya seems to be filling back in now. Looked like we were going to get dry slotted but the radar looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 ....THE FORECAST FOR GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN NC AT 5946 FT... .REST OF TONIGHT...CLOUDY. RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 31 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. .MONDAY...CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG. RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE CLOUDS ALL DAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 42 MPH. .MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 50. SOUTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH...DECREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 43 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 1, 2012 Author Share Posted October 1, 2012 Public Information Statement Statement as of 8:52 am EDT on October 1, 2012 Subject: WSR-88D dual polarization modification of kfcx radar scheduled for Monday October 1 2012 is being postponed. The kfcx radar... located in Floyd County Virginia and operated by the National Weather Service in Blacksburg Virginia... was scheduled to undergo dual polarization modification today. Due to expected weather conditions today and Tuesday... the modification has been pushed back to Wednesday October 3 2012. Beginning on Wednesday... the radar will be inoperable for as many as 12 days during this modification... but more likely only 6-8 days. During this time the kfcx radar will be off line and no data will be available. The neighboring Doppler radars at Sterling VA (klwx)... Wakefield VA (kakq)... Raleigh NC (krax)... Greenville- Spartanburg SC (kgsp)... Morristown TN (kmrx)... and Charleston WV (krlx) will continue to provide coverage over parts of the kfcx area during the installation. This modification is part of an upgrade to the National Weather Service network of radars. So far... surrounding radars that have already upgraded to dual polarization technology include Sterling VA... Wakefield VA... Morristown TN... and Charleston WV. The Greenville-Spartanburg radar will be upgraded in mid October... and the Raleigh radar in November. Dual polarization technology will give forecasters more information about precipitation type... shape... size... and intensity. This will lead to better detection of heavy rainfall... the presence of hail in thunderstorms... precipitation type during winter weather events... as well as better estimates of rain and snowfall accumulations in many situations. For more information contact: Steve keighton science and operations officer National Weather Service Blacksburg VA [email protected] 540-552-1041 ext. 224 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 1, 2012 Author Share Posted October 1, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 Sexy solid coverage of moderate to heavy rain west of Charlotte,NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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