100 million to die by 2030 if world fails to act on climate

[skierinvermont]

I think global warming in Terry's post means the physical stuff, and effects means studies like the one this thread is about.

Temperature, OHC, sea level rise and methane concentrations are physical phenomenon just as much as land or sea ice loss. Any distinction is pretty arbitrary.

[TerryM]

skier

What figures do you have for the IPCC on sea level rise. I'm getting 3.1mm/yr for the actual value and would guess that next year will see another upswing. I thought the IPCC prediction was less than this.

http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html

Terry

[TerryM]

Skier

I can't locate the IPCC projection for CH4, the paragraph I did find

Recent measurements show that CH₄ growth rates have declined and were negative for several years in the early 21st century (seeSection 2.3.2). The observed rate of increase of 0.8 ppb yr^–1 for the period 1999 to 2004 is considerably less than the rate of 6 ppb yr^–1 assumed in all the SRES scenarios for the period 1990 to 2000 (Nakićenović and Swart, 2000; TAR Appendix II). Recent studies (Dentener et al., 2005) have considered lower emission scenarios (see above) that take account of new pollution control techniques adopted in major developing countries. In the CLE scenario, emissions of CH₄ are comparable to the B2 scenario and increase from 340 Tg yr^–1 in 2000 to 450 Tg yr^–1 in 2030. The CH₄ concentrations increase from 1,750 ppb in 2000 to between 2,090 and 2,200 ppb in 2030 under this scenario. In the MFR scenario, the emissions are sufficiently low that the concentrations in 2030 are unchanged at 1,750 ppb. Under these conditions, the changes in radiative forcing due to CH₄ between the 1990s and 2020s are less than 0.01 W m^–2.

seem to indicate lower figures than we're seeing - particularly in the north.

Terry