October Pattern Suggests Stronger Winter 13-14 EPO Blocking Than NAO and AO

[WxMidwest]

One mention's EPO, NAO, AO blocking patterns. Don Sutherland is right about my identity, I've just been laying low for a bit because of studies. As for the the NAO indicator, the same model worked well last year, if it does this year great, if not back to the drawing boards. I would have had it done sooner but I had forgotten all about it and the government was shutdown, therefore no data was available from ESRL.

 

The NAO has alot of spatial variability, a -NAO doesn't guarantee cold and KU events but the probability sure goes up during those times, overall it's still a great pattern to have on your side (except during overwhelming El Nino's such as 97-98, or extreme suppressed patterns during very -NAO states) over the Eastern U.S. In the past, I've had an indicator which would predict the NAO best only during EL Nino years (Winter 2009-2010 Oct NP box if anybody recalls), this one seems to capture most years since 1980 regardless of ENSO status.

 

I have research on a  special index (teleconnection) presented at the East Lakes - West Lakes AAG Meeting and Chicago AMS Chapter Last Year. I think AmericanWx patrons will really think it's quite neat, since it focuses spatially on them and is more descriptive then the AO, PNA, NAO, and EPO.

[bkviking]

Bluewave, do current SSTAs in GOA and NATL continue to support the -EPO/+NAO pattern we've so far more or less locked Ito for several months?

[bluewave]

The October to winter pattern relationship worked out very well again this year. The dominant

October blocking pattern near Alaska with an extension east to Greenland was the same pattern that

we just experienced this winter. The EPO was negative most of the time.

 

 

 

[thunderbolt]

Nice work blue

[bluewave]

Nice work blue

 

Thanks. The October pattern has really been a great early predictor of what we have seen during the winters going back to 2002.

[JBG]

Thanks. The October pattern has really been a great early predictor of what we have seen during the winters going back to 2002.

For earlier years it was a great contrary indicator. Examples are 1972, 1987, 1997, 2000.