October Pattern Suggests Stronger Winter 13-14 EPO Blocking Than NAO and AO

[uncle W]

The AO for 1993-94 did have good negative periods...The NAO didn't...

NAO for 1993-94...November to March extremes...

11/10/93...+2.306

11/28/93...+1.058 24 days + 1.00 or higher ending 12/22...

12/26/93....-0.856 4 days minus... 12/23-27...

01/04/94...+0.707

01/11/94....-0.254

01/22/94...+1.736

02/01/94...+1.227

02/12/94...+1.058 plus from 1/12 to 2/23

02/24/94....-0.287 minus from 2/24-27

03/08/94...+1.554

NAO was mostly positive...

.....................................................................................................

The AO for 1993-94...

11/11/93...+2.225

12/11/93....-1.607

12/20/93...+1.901

12/26/93....-1.649

01/10/94....-3.073

01/22/94...+3.221

02/06/94....-1.451

02/12/94...+1.148

02/25/94....-3.417

03/13/94...+3.795

The AO was flip flopping from one extreme to the other...When it was negative that's when we got most of our snowfall...

 

 

[IrishRob17]

For the NYC area, 93-94 was great, but extremely frustrating and dangerous with multiple ice events. I remember scraping my car off constantly.

We did get a good amount of snow, but I'm sure the burbs did much better.

Hey Buddy, good to see you around here.

 

93-94 was a great winter up here, still my favorite winter.

[yhbrooklyn]

Hey Buddy, good to see you around here.

 

93-94 was a great winter up here, still my favorite winter.

Hey Rob! I still think of you every time I pass the Walkill.

[IrishRob17]

Hey Rob! I still think of you every time I pass the Walkill.

 

Nice!  I've thought of you too when I see the back ups on 17    Hope all is well.  Just so this doesn't get deleted let me mention that the snowpack in 93-94 was the longest lasting one that I've ever seen.  We still had solid snow cover on St. Pattys Day '94 well in excess of a foot. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Chris, could this be the year where the 93-94 analog actually works?

 

In all seriousness, that H5 composite for November 1993 does look strikingly similar to the progged pattern over the next couple weeks. Strongly positive AO, NAO, coupled with the maintenance of some degree of EPO ridging. Obviously that doesn't mean we'll be seeing 93-94 evolve, but it'll be interesting to watch nonetheless.

 

Could evolve into a pattern that will take a different form, but may resemble some signature events of 93-94. 

[green tube]

Chris, could this be the year where the 93-94 analog actually works?

 

In all seriousness, that H5 composite for November 1993 does look strikingly similar to the progged pattern over the next couple weeks. Strongly positive AO, NAO, coupled with the maintenance of some degree of EPO ridging. Obviously that doesn't mean we'll be seeing 93-94 evolve, but it'll be interesting to watch nonetheless.

 

1994 was insanely frustrating in central NJ.   numerous events with temps in the low 20s and upper teens that produced ice and sleet instead of snow.  i remember at one point i had 6 inches of pure ice in my backyard.   we still managed over 3 feet of snow.  i remember pretty much every winter going back to the late 70s, and none.... not one, was anything remotely like 1994.

[Isotherm]

1994 was insanely frustrating in central NJ.   numerous events with temps in the low 20s and upper teens that produced ice and sleet instead of snow.  i remember at one point i had 6 inches of pure ice in my backyard.   we still managed over 3 feet of snow.  i remember pretty much every winter going back to the late 70s, and none.... not one, was anything remotely like 1994.

 

 

I appreciate the recollection as I have none of that winter, given I was meeting bubble letters in kindergarten. New Brunswick finished up at 51" and Trenton had 40" (39.9 to be exact) so there must have been a pretty good gradient across Monmouth-Middlesex Counties. I'd guess my / your area was probably closer to the Trenton 40" number than the NB 51". Having such bitter temperatures and wasting all the precip would be very frustrating. But in the same breath, at least it was frozen precip, better than plain rain.

[Stormlover74]

I appreciate the recollection as I have none of that winter, given I was meeting bubble letters in kindergarten. New Brunswick finished up at 51" and Trenton had 40" (39.9 to be exact) so there must have been a pretty good gradient across Monmouth-Middlesex Counties. I'd guess my / your area was probably closer to the Trenton 40" number than the NB 51". Having such bitter temperatures and wasting all the precip would be very frustrating. But in the same breath, at least it was frozen precip, better than plain rain.

There was definitely a huge gradient that year. I believe philly had somewhere around 20" and dc and atlantic city in the 10-15" range. It seemed like storm after storm came out of the pacific and ran along a stationary front around the mason dixon. Nearly every event was overrunning with just a few coastals. I was lucky enough to be at state college that year for their snowiest winter on record - 110". Had at least 1" of snow on the ground from late december through late march and got down to -20 on 1/19/94

[green tube]

I appreciate the recollection as I have none of that winter, given I was meeting bubble letters in kindergarten. New Brunswick finished up at 51" and Trenton had 40" (39.9 to be exact) so there must have been a pretty good gradient across Monmouth-Middlesex Counties. I'd guess my / your area was probably closer to the Trenton 40" number than the NB 51". Having such bitter temperatures and wasting all the precip would be very frustrating. But in the same breath, at least it was frozen precip, better than plain rain.

 

i was in old bridge at the time.... i measured 40" of snow and 6" of sleet.  the ice storms were out of control.  i remember being shocked when i actually chipped through the pure ice.  it was somewhere between 5 and 6" of pure ice, and that was about a week after the event (as i recall).  i had no idea it was that thick until i actually hammered thru it.

 

seeing freezing rain or sleet when the temp is in the high teens & low 20s is frustrating of course,... but in 94, it happened over and over and over again.  insanely aggravating.  i'm gettin pissed off just thinking about it.  lol.

[Heisy]

I was only 8 at the time living just outside Philadelphia, I remember my mom & I ice skating in our backyard lol. I remember a lot of no school days. 

 

Looking back at some of the storms it looks like 94 was a Western PA/ Upstate NY jackpot winter, my god some of the 500mb maps I saw we're cool to look at. 

 

The 1/2-3/94 storm and the 3/2-3/94 storm 500mb maps look drool worthy if you lived in those areas. 

[uncle W]

1993-94 snow/sleet/ice 0.1" or more...I believe only the four clippers on 12/29, 1/24, 2/26, 3/18 were the only significant snows without any mixing in NYC...I'm guessing the dates...3/17's 0.3 was a snow squal..

................total.....12/12..12/29..1/3....1/7....1/12...1/17...1/24....1/25....2/1....2/8....2/11...2/23...2/26....3/2....3/17....3/18

1993-94....53.4".....2.9"....4.0"....1.0"....1.2"....2.9"....2.3"....4.5"....0.1"....0.6"....9.0"..12.8"...2.6"....1.4"....5.0"....0.3"....2.8"

[yhbrooklyn]

It was more than frustrating, it was dangerous. I had trouble crossing the street without slipping, nevermind trying to drive.

As much as I love snow and hate rain, I'll take rain any day over ice.

[Isotherm]

There was definitely a huge gradient that year. I believe philly had somewhere around 20" and dc and atlantic city in the 10-15" range. It seemed like storm after storm came out of the pacific and ran along a stationary front around the mason dixon. Nearly every event was overrunning with just a few coastals. I was lucky enough to be at state college that year for their snowiest winter on record - 110". Had at least 1" of snow on the ground from late december through late march and got down to -20 on 1/19/94

 

 

i was in old bridge at the time.... i measured 40" of snow and 6" of sleet.  the ice storms were out of control.  i remember being shocked when i actually chipped through the pure ice.  it was somewhere between 5 and 6" of pure ice, and that was about a week after the event (as i recall).  i had no idea it was that thick until i actually hammered thru it.

 

seeing freezing rain or sleet when the temp is in the high teens & low 20s is frustrating of course,... but in 94, it happened over and over and over again.  insanely aggravating.  i'm gettin pissed off just thinking about it.  lol.

 

 

 

Yeah, I just checked snowfall totals for the state, and didn't realize how far under normal SNJ ended up at.

 

Millville had 9", Cape May 7", Atlantic City 8", then as you trek northward, 38" in Hightstown, 40" Trenton, 51" New Brunswick, and 65" at Newark. Sick gradient that year. Essentially a non-winter for far SNJ, average for around 40N, good to great for CNJ, and phenomenal / one of the snowiest winters on record for NE NJ.

 

 

Not sure if I'd trust rolling the dice on that type of pattern again for the winter, as a slight shift northward would put me in the meh/bad range.

[NEG NAO]

Looking further down the road through the 1st 10 days of November 2013 the 6Z GFS is really going along with the AO and the NAO forecast of positive values through that period with a flat PNA = above normal temps the 1st 10 days of the month

 

GFS

http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/models/gfsone-06/ex_all850tmpc.html

 

NAO

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

AO

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
 

[Sundog]

It was more than frustrating, it was dangerous. I had trouble crossing the street without slipping, nevermind trying to drive.

As much as I love snow and hate rain, I'll take rain any day over ice.

South Shore of Long Island saw a lot more mixing than the north shore. LGA I believe saw around 60 inches that year while JFK recorded something in the 40s. I can look up the exact numbers later but it was something like that.

I'll never forget that ice storm in early January 1994. That was absolutely insane. It was literally pouring rain and in the 20s.

[uncle W]

South Shore of Long Island saw a lot more mixing than the north shore. LGA I believe saw around 60 inches that year while JFK recorded something in the 40s. I can look up the exact numbers later but it was something like that.

I'll never forget that ice storm in early January 1994. That was absolutely insane. It was literally pouring rain and in the 20s.

I had a girl friend who lived near Howard Beach in 1973 when we had that ice storm in December 73....Howard Beach and east NY got almost all freezing rain for a 24 hour stretch...There was over an inch of ice everywhere...Driving was slick but back then the big thing was when it snowed me and my friends went out to skid around with the car...I became an expert on stearing out of skids...I scared a few people with some of my antics...I drove to work and saw a few downed trees in southern Brooklyn...That storm deformed many pine trees and bushes along the belt parkway...January 8th 1994 was the second best ice storm I saw...

[bkviking]

Anyone see FB post by DT regarding Met Grad Student Al Marinaro's methodology for forecasting NAO regime for winter? Method isn't really described but it per DT it deals with high level winds in May and September. Regardless his table predicts a strongly negative overall NAO regime this winter.

[MJO812]

Anyone see FB post by DT regarding Met Grad Student Al Marinaro's methodology for forecasting NAO regime for winter? Method isn't really described but it per DT it deals with high level winds in May and September. Regardless his tabl

e predicts a strongly negative overall NAO regime this winter.

I just saw it. Hopefully it occurs.

[NEG NAO]

I just saw it. Hopefully it occurs.

Have to have the AO cooperate also if you want the cold to stick around this winter - at least for the first week of November its forecasted to be at positive levels we haven't seen in a while - the PNA being positive helps too but its also forecasted to be close to neutral along with a positive NAO the first week in November

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[uofmiami]

Anyone see FB post by DT regarding Met Grad Student Al Marinaro's methodology for forecasting NAO regime for winter? Method isn't really described but it per DT it deals with high level winds in May and September. Regardless his table predicts a strongly negative overall NAO regime this winter.

If right, just great given the current precipitation deficit around here.  We'll end up cold and dry with everything being suppressed to the Mid-Atlantic region.  Hope it's not strongly negative.

[bkviking]

If right, just great given the current precipitation deficit around here. We'll end up cold and dry with everything being suppressed to the Mid-Atlantic region. Hope it's not strongly negative.

Good point. I almost lost myself in -NAO fog to realize our area isn't always the benefit zone of a strong blocking regime in Greenland. 2010 started out with non-stop dry windy conditions before the Boxing Day blockbuster. And 2009-10 shows us how mid Atlantic really benefited from strong -NAO more than us.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

People need to remember that a strongly negative NAO as well as each other factor alone does not guarantee a cold snowy winter! Many things have to come together just right in order to achieve it and usually the odds are against that happening around here.

WX/PT

[donsutherland1]

Anyone see FB post by DT regarding Met Grad Student Al Marinaro's methodology for forecasting NAO regime for winter? Method isn't really described but it per DT it deals with high level winds in May and September. Regardless his table predicts a strongly negative overall NAO regime this winter.

 

Some additional information:

 

https://twitter.com/wxmidwest/status/394242818132025345/photo/1

 

http://www.firstenercastfinancial.com/pdfs/1495.pdf

 

If I recall correctly, he either posts at AmWx or used to post here.

[donsutherland1]

People need to remember that a strongly negative NAO as well as each other factor alone does not guarantee a cold snowy winter! Many things have to come together just right in order to achieve it and usually the odds are against that happening around here.

WX/PT

I agree. Very important reminder.

[earthlight]

People need to remember that a strongly negative NAO as well as each other factor alone does not guarantee a cold snowy winter! Many things have to come together just right in order to achieve it and usually the odds are against that happening around here.

WX/PT

So true. It is great to have on our side, but sometimes I wonder how many major blocking episodes we are going to have to see give us nothing for people to stop foaming at the mouth with every -NAO. The surrounding pattern and teleconnections are equally as important.

I can't remember the exact dates, but in the last two years I remember having two or three major blocking events -- with big time positive height anomalies not only over Greenland but retrograding to Central Canadan -- which gave us essentially nothing as far as snow is concerned.

A good reminder moving forward.

[Weathergun]

We've had many useless -NAO patterns here mainly caused by a poor Pacific signal or thumb nose ridge in the North Atlantic.

[bluewave]

This October featured a -EPO/-NAO pattern like the analog years of 2002, 2003, 2006, 2009, and 2012.

But the key difference this October was that the Pacific blocking in the EPO sector was stronger

than in the AO and NAO regions. This stronger Pacific blocking suggest that it may end up being

the dominant area for blocking across the higher latitudes this winter with the potential for lesser

amounts of blocking in the NAO and AO regions. Each October 500 mb pattern since 2002

gave a very good indication of how the following winter would turn out.

 

October 2013 with the stronger -EPO

 

 

October 2013 weaker Atlantic blocking than 2002, 2003,2006, 2009, and 2012 composite

 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

This October featured a -EPO/-NAO pattern like the analog years of 2002, 2003, 2006, 2009, and 2012.

But the key difference this October was that the Pacific blocking in the EPO sector was stronger

than in the AO and NAO regions. This stronger Pacific blocking suggest that it may end up being

the dominant area for blocking across the higher latitudes this winter with the potential for lesser

amounts of blocking in the NAO and AO regions. Each October 500 mb pattern since 2002

gave a very good indication of how the following winter would turn out.

 

October 2013 with the stronger -EPO

 

OCT13.gif

 

October 2013 weaker Atlantic blocking than 2002, 2003,2006, 2009, and 2012 composite

 

OCTCOMP.png

 

This may work out. We need the Pacific to cooperate more because the Blocking signals for the Atlantic can easily show up, as long as we have the proper SSW Events. 

[bluewave]

This may work out. We need the Pacific to cooperate more because the Blocking signals for the Atlantic can easily show up, as long as we have the proper SSW Events. 

 

Yeah, we are going to have to wait to see how the details work out.

 

The strength of the -EPO ridge has been the big story from January through October for 2013. In fact, it's the strongest

ridge there since 1989 for January through October . But the Atlantic side was different in 1989 than this year.

The blocking there is even stronger there year to date than we saw in 2002 and 2009.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

The warmest October on record for parts of Alaska due to the strong -EPO ridge.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/news/alaska-warmth-fairbanks-anchorage-20131030

 

 

rom Anchorage to Fairbanks and Barrow, many cities in Alaska have seen very mild temperatures this October due to a persistent area of high pressure in the upper atmosphere.

Unprecedented Weather in Fairbanks

 

The red, orange and yellow contours on this map illustrate the dominant area of high pressure aloft engulfing Alaska, northwest Canada and the northeast Pacific from Oct. 8 to Oct. 27. Credit: NOAA/ESRL

In the interior Alaskan city of Fairbanks, the monthly average temperature was 36.1 degrees. This is more than 11 degrees above average and ranks as the third warmest October on record in the city.

Monday, Oct. 28 was extremely mild. The high temperature for the day reached a daily record of 51 degrees, more than 30 degrees above the late-October average high of 20 degrees. Even the low temperature of 38 degrees exceeded the average high by about 18 degrees.

From late Oct. 27 into Oct. 28, rain fell on bare ground in Fairbanks. This may not sound significant, but according to the National Weather Service, rain falling on bare ground three days prior to Halloween "appears to be unprecedented in more than a century of weather observations." The National Weather Service says that rain is a rarity in Fairbanks after Oct. 20.

Warmth Stretches From North to South Coasts

Anchorage, the most populated city in Alaska, saw its warmest October dating to 1915.

The monthly average temperature of 43 degrees was more than seven degrees above average. It's also near one degree higher than the previous warmest October of 42.1 degrees set in 1936.

High temperatures were in the 50s nearly half of the days in October. Typically, average high temperatures fall from the upper 40s to low 30s from the start to the end of October.

Along the north coast of Alaska, the town of Barrow has also seen a very mild October for the second year in a row.

The average temperature in Barrow was 24.7 degrees. This is more than seven degrees above average, but short of equaling last year's record warm October of 27.5 degrees.

(MORE: Barrow, Alaska – A