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October 2012 General Discussion


Powerball

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Don't speak too soon. I draw your attention to the back-to-back busts of 1931-32 and 1932-33.

I wasn't aware of those winters. Those winters were during the Dust Bowl too.

I've heard a few thoughts out there about having another 2002-2003 type winter. That was cold, but drier than normal.

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Don't speak too soon. I draw your attention to the back-to-back busts of 1931-32 and 1932-33.

Thats why he said the chance was slim, not none, lol. Actually when you look back to the beginning of accurate records there has been a handful of dreadful back-to-back years, though it is WAY more common to have a better snow-year follow a widespread stinker. Plus, with increased snowiness in much of the southern Lakes in recent years and rumblings of a weak El Nino, chances are a good winter is coming.

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Whats funny is that DTWs high will be in the 60s at 12am though the entire daylight hours will see temps from the 40s to low 50s.

wow this is hilarious. Ahead of the front the temp has RISEN to 70F at 12am at DTW! The high today will be 70 (maybe even 71?) despite the fact that the actual high during the daylight hours will probably be 51-52F.

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wow this is hilarious. Ahead of the front the temp has RISEN to 70F at 12am at DTW! The high today will be 70 (maybe even 71?) despite the fact that the actual high during the daylight hours will probably be 51-52F.

Wow, I thought it was bad that at 79F, Milwaukee was the warmest obs site in the area, and made it there for an hour before pretty quickly cooling because of the front. If I lived in Detroit, I would be pretty mad that this temp bump will affect the overall average, probably by a quarter to half degree for the month.

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Wow, I thought it was bad that at 79F, Milwaukee was the warmest obs site in the area, and made it there for an hour before pretty quickly cooling because of the front. If I lived in Detroit, I would be pretty mad that this temp bump will affect the overall average, probably by a quarter to half degree for the month.

Mad why? There are plenty of times when the highs occur at midnight, just like there are plenty of times that the lows occur at midnight.

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Bet I still dont get a freeze out of this.

Sent from my iPhone.

hope you have better luck than when you said it wouldn't get below 40 with the earlier chill snap and you made it down to 32.9.

30.7 would be my guess. and I'd take the under.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT WASHINGTON

309 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012

SATURDAY NIGHT

PARTLY CLOUDY. WIDESPREAD FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MAIN 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF WI EARLY IN THE DAY

WITH SECONDARY 700 MILLIBAR WAVE/SURFACE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH

DURING THE DAY. 12Z ECMWF THE CLOSEST CALL IN NORTHERN CWA WRT QPF.

REST OF MODELS LEANING DRY. WILL MENTION SOME FLURRIES/SPRINKLES IN

NORTHERN CWA IN LINE WITH PRIOR FORECAST. 925 TEMPS QUITE CHILLY

AROUND 0-2C SUGGESTING HIGHS MID 40S. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NUDGES INTO

WI. 925 TEMPS SUGGESTS A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH READINGS DOWN INTO THE

20S. STRONG INVERSION IMPLIES SOME TEENS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

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wow this is hilarious. Ahead of the front the temp has RISEN to 70F at 12am at DTW! The high today will be 70 (maybe even 71?) despite the fact that the actual high during the daylight hours will probably be 51-52F.

Don't forget that it's still daylight saving time ... so the it'll be the 1 am temperature that will be the high, not midnight. Looks like 66 or maybe 65 for the high.

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Down to 38 °F, several stations just west of Madison reading 36 °F. No frost since it's fairly dry for this time of day with an RH of 70%, dewpoint is 29 °F.

Frost advisory in effect for Saturday morning with temps expected to be around freezing, Sunday morning looks like a hard freeze with temps in the mid-upper 20s, and probably will be the last frost/freeze advisory we get.

850s hanging around 0 °C now and should drop slowly throughout the day, so highs will be in the 50s.

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Mad why? There are plenty of times when the highs occur at midnight, just like there are plenty of times that the lows occur at midnight.

Because it is not very representative of reality and skews the temperature average. Also, don't compare midnight highs to midnight lows, because midnight lows actually make sense and are more representative. There aren't many lows reached during the day, which is what should be compared with midnight highs.

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Because it is not very representative of reality and skews the temperature average. Also, don't compare midnight highs to midnight lows, because midnight lows actually make sense and are more representative. There aren't many lows reached during the day, which is what should be compared with midnight highs.

I get what you're saying. If, for example, a front moved through at 1am on a January day, dropping the temperature from, say 32F at midnight, to 0F at 5pm that afternoon, anyone looking back on the day years from then will think it was a mild day with a high of 32F, when in fact it was frigid by the mid afternoon.

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Because it is not very representative of reality and skews the temperature average. Also, don't compare midnight highs to midnight lows, because midnight lows actually make sense and are more representative. There aren't many lows reached during the day, which is what should be compared with midnight highs.

It generally evens out. There are countless times where an overnight low might be 70, high temp gets up to 85, cold front races through and drops temp to 50 by midnight completely erasing the very warm previous night from the records.

Of course if we integrated the daily temperatures, none of this would matter.

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Because it is not very representative of reality and skews the temperature average. Also, don't compare midnight highs to midnight lows, because midnight lows actually make sense and are more representative. There aren't many lows reached during the day, which is what should be compared with midnight highs.

But it kind of is reality. It's the maximum achieved high temp on a specific calendar day. If it occurred during day-light or night, it does not matter.

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But it kind of is reality. It's the maximum achieved high temp on a specific calendar day. If it occurred during day-light or night, it does not matter.

This. The high for the day is the high for the day, no matter what point in the 24 hour Window it came in. Otherwise you start getting into line drawing and there would never be any agreement. Would a high that occurred at 7:00PM count? 6? 5?

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SHORT TERM FORECAST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

1112 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHICAGO...OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS... JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...

VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...FOWLER

1112 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012 /1212 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012/

NOW

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF PERIODS OF SMALL ICE PELLETS.

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