mnweather Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Don't speak too soon. I draw your attention to the back-to-back busts of 1931-32 and 1932-33. Certainly possible, but how often do back to back busts happen over such a wide area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Don't speak too soon. I draw your attention to the back-to-back busts of 1931-32 and 1932-33. I wasn't aware of those winters. Those winters were during the Dust Bowl too. I've heard a few thoughts out there about having another 2002-2003 type winter. That was cold, but drier than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Extremely gusty outside as the front rips through... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Don't speak too soon. I draw your attention to the back-to-back busts of 1931-32 and 1932-33. Thats why he said the chance was slim, not none, lol. Actually when you look back to the beginning of accurate records there has been a handful of dreadful back-to-back years, though it is WAY more common to have a better snow-year follow a widespread stinker. Plus, with increased snowiness in much of the southern Lakes in recent years and rumblings of a weak El Nino, chances are a good winter is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Extremely gusty outside as the front rips through... Whats funny is that DTWs high will be in the 60s at 12am though the entire daylight hours will see temps from the 40s to low 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Whats funny is that DTWs high will be in the 60s at 12am though the entire daylight hours will see temps from the 40s to low 50s. wow this is hilarious. Ahead of the front the temp has RISEN to 70F at 12am at DTW! The high today will be 70 (maybe even 71?) despite the fact that the actual high during the daylight hours will probably be 51-52F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 wow this is hilarious. Ahead of the front the temp has RISEN to 70F at 12am at DTW! The high today will be 70 (maybe even 71?) despite the fact that the actual high during the daylight hours will probably be 51-52F. Stat padding. I had to dude. I'm sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 wow this is hilarious. Ahead of the front the temp has RISEN to 70F at 12am at DTW! The high today will be 70 (maybe even 71?) despite the fact that the actual high during the daylight hours will probably be 51-52F. Wow, I thought it was bad that at 79F, Milwaukee was the warmest obs site in the area, and made it there for an hour before pretty quickly cooling because of the front. If I lived in Detroit, I would be pretty mad that this temp bump will affect the overall average, probably by a quarter to half degree for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Wow, I thought it was bad that at 79F, Milwaukee was the warmest obs site in the area, and made it there for an hour before pretty quickly cooling because of the front. If I lived in Detroit, I would be pretty mad that this temp bump will affect the overall average, probably by a quarter to half degree for the month. Mad why? There are plenty of times when the highs occur at midnight, just like there are plenty of times that the lows occur at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Had a high of 76° today, which did not last a full hour. Down to 48° currently under clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Bet I still dont get a freeze out of this. Sent from my iPhone. hope you have better luck than when you said it wouldn't get below 40 with the earlier chill snap and you made it down to 32.9. 30.7 would be my guess. and I'd take the under. INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT WASHINGTON 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012 SATURDAY NIGHT PARTLY CLOUDY. WIDESPREAD FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MAIN 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF WI EARLY IN THE DAY WITH SECONDARY 700 MILLIBAR WAVE/SURFACE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY. 12Z ECMWF THE CLOSEST CALL IN NORTHERN CWA WRT QPF. REST OF MODELS LEANING DRY. WILL MENTION SOME FLURRIES/SPRINKLES IN NORTHERN CWA IN LINE WITH PRIOR FORECAST. 925 TEMPS QUITE CHILLY AROUND 0-2C SUGGESTING HIGHS MID 40S. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NUDGES INTO WI. 925 TEMPS SUGGESTS A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH READINGS DOWN INTO THE 20S. STRONG INVERSION IMPLIES SOME TEENS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Cfs weeklies just lost the mega-torch for the last week of October. Brilliant red replaced wiith light yellow for upper midwest. I wonder where CPC thinks the main storm track is going to be this fall/ the first half of winter? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 wow this is hilarious. Ahead of the front the temp has RISEN to 70F at 12am at DTW! The high today will be 70 (maybe even 71?) despite the fact that the actual high during the daylight hours will probably be 51-52F. Don't forget that it's still daylight saving time ... so the it'll be the 1 am temperature that will be the high, not midnight. Looks like 66 or maybe 65 for the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Down to 38 °F, several stations just west of Madison reading 36 °F. No frost since it's fairly dry for this time of day with an RH of 70%, dewpoint is 29 °F. Frost advisory in effect for Saturday morning with temps expected to be around freezing, Sunday morning looks like a hard freeze with temps in the mid-upper 20s, and probably will be the last frost/freeze advisory we get. 850s hanging around 0 °C now and should drop slowly throughout the day, so highs will be in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 NWS showing 26F Sunday morning here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Mad why? There are plenty of times when the highs occur at midnight, just like there are plenty of times that the lows occur at midnight. Because it is not very representative of reality and skews the temperature average. Also, don't compare midnight highs to midnight lows, because midnight lows actually make sense and are more representative. There aren't many lows reached during the day, which is what should be compared with midnight highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Because it is not very representative of reality and skews the temperature average. Also, don't compare midnight highs to midnight lows, because midnight lows actually make sense and are more representative. There aren't many lows reached during the day, which is what should be compared with midnight highs. I get what you're saying. If, for example, a front moved through at 1am on a January day, dropping the temperature from, say 32F at midnight, to 0F at 5pm that afternoon, anyone looking back on the day years from then will think it was a mild day with a high of 32F, when in fact it was frigid by the mid afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Because it is not very representative of reality and skews the temperature average. Also, don't compare midnight highs to midnight lows, because midnight lows actually make sense and are more representative. There aren't many lows reached during the day, which is what should be compared with midnight highs. It generally evens out. There are countless times where an overnight low might be 70, high temp gets up to 85, cold front races through and drops temp to 50 by midnight completely erasing the very warm previous night from the records. Of course if we integrated the daily temperatures, none of this would matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Because it is not very representative of reality and skews the temperature average. Also, don't compare midnight highs to midnight lows, because midnight lows actually make sense and are more representative. There aren't many lows reached during the day, which is what should be compared with midnight highs. But it kind of is reality. It's the maximum achieved high temp on a specific calendar day. If it occurred during day-light or night, it does not matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 But it kind of is reality. It's the maximum achieved high temp on a specific calendar day. If it occurred during day-light or night, it does not matter. This. The high for the day is the high for the day, no matter what point in the 24 hour Window it came in. Otherwise you start getting into line drawing and there would never be any agreement. Would a high that occurred at 7:00PM count? 6? 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Looks like high of 61 at KOZW. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Only 44 here just shy of 11am. The cold and steel gray skies make it look and feel like November out there. Most of the crops around here are harvested as well, so the fields are all chopped away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Brrr, it's chilly out there! Low 39° this morning, now at 47°. Somewhat overcast skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Brrr, it's chilly out there! Low 39° this morning, now at 47°. Somewhat overcast skies. 74 in the greenhouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 46 as we approach 1 PM. Not ready for this chill yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 46 as we approach 1 PM. Not ready for this chill yet. Ticked down to 45 now. High occurred early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 1112 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012 INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHICAGO...OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS... JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY... VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...FOWLER 1112 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012 /1212 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012/ NOW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF PERIODS OF SMALL ICE PELLETS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Moving away from our local area; here's a nice write-up from HPC on what to expect for the weekend across the entire country with this early fall cold snap. http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2012/10/octobers-cold-blast-arrival-what-to.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Forecast here is for upper 20s tonight and mid 20s Saturday night. I'm going to cover a few of my best plants because there are still three or four hummingbirds that need to feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Eeeps, I hadn't even checked, I have snow flurries and 28 in my forecast tonight, and 25 on my point and click tomorrow night. Bare trees in a week for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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