Chicago WX Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Yep snowing a good clip right now. If you want a picture of the snow thus far I posted one in the other sub forum. I saw that, nice pic. Enjoy the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Gusting to 30 here, not going to be any leaves left except on the oak trees. Beautiful fall color to nada in 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 wind is going to strip most the trees here... No rain, or so it looks..what else is new. Record cold temps Sun morning so says the NWS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO SEE A HARD FREEZE AS LOWS TUMBLE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME RECORD LOWS BEING TIED OR BROKEN. FOR EXAMPLE...CURRENT FORECAST LOW FOR LA CROSSE IS 26 AND THIS WOULD TIE THE RECORD SET IN 2001. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY MARK A FINAL END TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET SEEN A HARD FREEZE...THIS BEING AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS. FREEZE HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. At this point in the growing season, nothing is really happening...only plants that look good are the marigolds, and that is because i water them often. The zinnias also look great this year (no rain helps/they seem to handle the dryness just fine)... Bees are still very active (lots of honeybees, bumbleebees)... Maybe i'll cover a few plants so they have something to munch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Mild and sunny here. Had a little rain early this morning. Looks like the cold is charging its way across NW IL, SW WI already. Squirrels and Chipmunks have been very busy the last 5 days or so. Seeing a lot of different types of migrating birds around too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Mild and sunny here. Had a little rain early this morning. Looks like the cold is charging its way across NW IL, SW WI already. Squirrels and Chipmunks have been very busy the last 5 days or so. Seeing a lot of different types of migrating birds around too. Was sunny most of the morning here, clouds are now marching in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Saukville's point forecast: Saukville WI En Español Fair 73°F 23°C Humidity38% Wind SpeedS 17 G 21 mph Barometer29.91 in Dewpoint46°F (8°C) Visibility10.00 mi Last Update on 4 Oct 11:55 am CDT Current conditions at West Bend Municipal Airport (KETB) Lat: 43.44 Lon: -88.13 Elev: 886ft. More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather More Sharing ServicesShare | Share on facebookShare on twitterShare on emailShare on printShare on reddit This Afternoon Showers Likely High: 76 °F Tonight Slight Chc Showers Low: 40 °F Friday Breezy High: 53 °F Friday Night Partly Cloudy Low: 32 °F Saturday Partly Sunny High: 50 °F Saturday Night Areas Frost Low: 33 °F Sunday Mostly Sunny High: 50 °F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Saukville loves it...he'll probably head over to Port and sit on the beach in shorts and flip flops this weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Was sunny most of the morning here, clouds are now marching in. Clouds streaming in here now. Mid 70s will probably be about it today. A pretty good thunder cell or rain cell about by Rockton, IL. The wind is kicking up leaves all over the place. Pine cones have been falling on the roof and rolling into the gutters . Had a leaf tornado going between the garage and house earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Pretty much perfect weather here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Currently 76 at DTW. Just about full sun. Beautiful outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 day 7 euro keeps canada flooded with cold air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Absolutely beautiful day up here. 70, with nice southwest breeze blowing the leaves a round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Temperature decline has started. Down to 70 from 76. Wind gusts are pushing 40mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 day 7 euro keeps canada flooded with cold air... Yeah and after that it brings back the dreaded GOA LOW. No "cold air" to speak of in western Canada. I can see the winter torch setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Yeah and after that it brings back the dreaded GOA LOW. No "cold air" to speak of in western Canada. I can see the winter torch setting up. It's freaking October the 4th, relax a little dude.. Are you seriously expecting Balls To The Walls ICE COLD from here through the end of winter? Let it torch away right now, it's actually a good thing most times for the upcoming winter anyways. You can't have snow/cold from October through March, that's just now how it works my man even in the best of winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Upper 20s making a run into SE WI tonight on the 12z NAM 4km. @Trapperman - Don't get too excited about seeing a Gulf of Alaska Low on the long range models. Some of the best winters are proceeded by warm Octobers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 The GOA Vort freaked allot of people out last year. It combined with a wacky NAO. It will be time to get concerned if we start seeing a flood of PAC air filling the conus while our Canadian air is bottled up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 It's freaking October the 4th, relax a little dude.. Are you seriously expecting Balls To The Walls ICE COLD from here through the end of winter? Let it torch away right now, it's actually a good thing most times for the upcoming winter anyways. You can't have snow/cold from October through March, that's just now how it works my man even in the best of winters Ha. I actually agree with this... It's not often to see winter start in October. Yea we get our flakes and chills but seldom if ever does winter start and continue through Oct - Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Yeah, I don't know why people want cold September's/October's. They just aren't worth it if November-January will suck ala last year. I think some people were a little sick of 11 straight above normal months of temps. Also, some have to worry about the lakes cooling so early potential snow events are not mixy/rain. You might argue that it hardly matters, but if we had a warm fall, it would. Thankfully, the fall has been coolish thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 78 here in Goshen as I return to check this forum after an extended absence due to boring weather. Looking forward to some good fall color this month and an Octobomb or November witch. Colors are turning nicely in the Michiana area now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Made it to 70 around noon before the front blew through. The rest of the afternoon was cold and cloudy with a few sprinkles. No measurable precip here unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 78 here in Goshen as I return to check this forum after an extended absence due to boring weather. Looking forward to some good fall color this month and an Octobomb or November witch. Colors are turning nicely in the Michiana area now. Welcome back! I notice that IWX spoke of snow in their afternoon disco for the first time this season. Bring it on! .LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE THE CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION INCLUDING A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN A CHANCE FOR SNOW ON SUNDAY WITH A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROF. ALSO...CHALLENGES INCLUDE THE CHANCE FOR FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR THIS PACKAGE...PREFER THE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS HAD GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM REASONABLY WELL. THE 500 MB ANALOGS WERE SHOWING MUCH BETTER CORRELATION THIS PERIOD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. KEPT PRECIPITATION JUST RAIN FOR NOW THIS WEEKEND. LAKE WATER TEMPS WERE STILL QUITE WARM...ALTHOUGH WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -4C...CAN NOT RULE OUT A RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN/SLEET MIX. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSE TO FREEZING. FROST OR POSSIBLY FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. THE ONGOING CHANCES FOR RAIN ABOUT WEDNESDAY STILL APPEAR ON TRACK WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 It's freaking October the 4th, relax a little dude.. Are you seriously expecting Balls To The Walls ICE COLD from here through the end of winter? Let it torch away right now, it's actually a good thing most times for the upcoming winter anyways. You can't have snow/cold from October through March, that's just now how it works my man even in the best of winters I think what many of us (myself included) want is for a pattern similar to 1976-77 and 1980-81. Both of those years saw below average temperatures hit in October and last pretty much non stop through to early to mid February. Those two years show that it is possible to have early season cold in October and not have a mild November and winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 It's freaking October the 4th, relax a little dude.. Are you seriously expecting Balls To The Walls ICE COLD from here through the end of winter? Let it torch away right now, it's actually a good thing most times for the upcoming winter anyways. You can't have snow/cold from October through March, that's just now how it works my man even in the best of winters I was not really tense about it, lol. I wasn't expecting balls to the wall cold, no, of course not. But this happened to us last year in September, we froze early, and then NON STOP torch until Morch hit. And yes, I do mean Morch. It's my new name for the month. Just kind of upset that we run the possibility of doing this all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 I think what many of us (myself included) want is for a pattern similar to 1976-77 and 1980-81. Both of those years saw below average temperatures hit in October and last pretty much non stop through to early to mid February. Those two years show that it is possible to have early season cold in October and not have a mild November and winter. And last year and many other years shows us that you can have an early season cold shot and then... agony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 And someone tell me if I should be happy about a warm enso and not an El Nino because as far as El Nino goes, I just am not seeing it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 55 °F and gusty. Dewpoint dropping fast, in the low 30s now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 And someone tell me if I should be happy about a warm enso and not an El Nino because as far as El Nino goes, I just am not seeing it happen. From what I've researched, neutral to weak El Niño winters bring typical type winter weather to the Midwest and Great Lakes. Some good analog years have been mentioned around the board, 1951-1952 ONI of +0.6, 1976-1977 ONI of 0.6. You can check out what winters were neutral to slight El Niño here: http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml then compare to your local snowfall tallies records. Just the fact that last winter was so rare, and a chance of something even remotely close to last winter happening again in back to back years; is extremely slim. Blocking seems to have made a return, which is good. I'm more concerned with having too much cold air around and the storm track being shoved to the south this winter. It is still too early to see what the winter will start out like. If the Alaska vortex was present in November then I'd be a little more concerned. P.S. Another positive is that Accuweather's forecast will usually bust somehow. Wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities to see the exact opposite of what they're predicting now. .... On another note, Skilling mentioned graupel mixing in with rain showers on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 From what I've researched, neutral to weak El Niño winters bring typical type winter weather to the Midwest and Great Lakes. Some good analog years have been mentioned around the board, 1951-1952 ONI of +0.6, 1976-1977 ONI of 0.6. You can check out what winters were neutral to slight El Niño here: http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml then compare to your local snowfall tallies records. Just the fact that last winter was so rare, and a chance of something even remotely close to last winter happening again in back to back years; is extremely slim. Blocking seems to have made a return, which is good. I'm more concerned with having too much cold air around and the storm track being shoved to the south this winter. It is still too early to see what the winter will start out like. If the Alaska vortex was present in November then I'd be a little more concerned. P.S. Another positive is that Accuweather's forecast will usually bust somehow. Wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities to see the exact opposite of what they're predicting now. .... On another note, Skilling mentioned graupel mixing in with rain showers on Saturday. Don't speak too soon. I draw your attention to the back-to-back busts of 1931-32 and 1932-33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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