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October 2012 General Discussion


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SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO SEE A HARD FREEZE AS LOWS TUMBLE INTO THE

LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS A SURFACE RIDGE

AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME RECORD LOWS BEING TIED OR

BROKEN. FOR EXAMPLE...CURRENT FORECAST LOW FOR LA CROSSE IS 26 AND

THIS WOULD TIE THE RECORD SET IN 2001. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY MARK A

FINAL END TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET SEEN A

HARD FREEZE...THIS BEING AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/WISCONSIN RIVER

VALLEYS. FREEZE HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED TO HIGHLIGHT

THIS.

At this point in the growing season, nothing is really happening...only plants that look good are the marigolds, and that is because i water them often. The zinnias also look great this year (no rain helps/they seem to handle the dryness just fine)... Bees are still very active (lots of honeybees, bumbleebees)... Maybe i'll cover a few plants so they have something to munch on.

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Mild and sunny here. Had a little rain early this morning. Looks like the cold is charging its way across NW IL, SW WI already.

Squirrels and Chipmunks have been very busy the last 5 days or so. Seeing a lot of different types of migrating birds around too.

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Mild and sunny here. Had a little rain early this morning. Looks like the cold is charging its way across NW IL, SW WI already.

Squirrels and Chipmunks have been very busy the last 5 days or so. Seeing a lot of different types of migrating birds around too.

Was sunny most of the morning here, clouds are now marching in.

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Saukville's point forecast:

Saukville WI

En Español

sct.png

Fair

73°F

23°C

  • Humidity38%
  • Wind SpeedS 17 G 21 mph
  • Barometer29.91 in
  • Dewpoint46°F (8°C)
  • Visibility10.00 mi

Last Update on 4 Oct 11:55 am CDT

Current conditions at

West Bend Municipal Airport (KETB)

Lat: 43.44 Lon: -88.13 Elev: 886ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather

More Sharing ServicesShare | Share on facebookShare on twitterShare on emailShare on printShare on reddit

This

Afternoon

shra60.png

Showers

Likely

High: 76 °F

Tonight

hi_nshwrs10.png

Slight Chc

Showers

Low: 40 °F

Friday

wind.png

Breezy

High: 53 °F

Friday

Night

nsct.png

Partly

Cloudy

Low: 32 °F

Saturday

bkn.png

Partly

Sunny

High: 50 °F

Saturday

Night

nbkn.png

Areas

Frost

Low: 33 °F

Sunday

sct.png

Mostly

Sunny

High: 50 °F

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Was sunny most of the morning here, clouds are now marching in.

Clouds streaming in here now. Mid 70s will probably be about it today. A pretty good thunder cell or rain cell about by Rockton, IL.

The wind is kicking up leaves all over the place. Pine cones have been falling on the roof and rolling into the gutters <_<. Had a leaf tornado going between the garage and house earlier.

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Yeah and after that it brings back the dreaded GOA LOW. No "cold air" to speak of in western Canada. I can see the winter torch setting up.

It's freaking October the 4th, relax a little dude..

Are you seriously expecting Balls To The Walls ICE COLD from here through the end of winter? :huh:

Let it torch away right now, it's actually a good thing most times for the upcoming winter anyways.

You can't have snow/cold from October through March, that's just now how it works my man even in the best of winters ;)

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Upper 20s making a run into SE WI tonight on the 12z NAM 4km.

temp24.gif

@Trapperman - Don't get too excited about seeing a Gulf of Alaska Low on the long range models. Some of the best winters are proceeded by warm Octobers.

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It's freaking October the 4th, relax a little dude..

Are you seriously expecting Balls To The Walls ICE COLD from here through the end of winter? :huh:

Let it torch away right now, it's actually a good thing most times for the upcoming winter anyways.

You can't have snow/cold from October through March, that's just now how it works my man even in the best of winters ;)

Ha. I actually agree with this... It's not often to see winter start in October. Yea we get our flakes and chills but seldom if ever does winter start and continue through Oct - Nov.

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Yeah, I don't know why people want cold September's/October's. They just aren't worth it if November-January will suck ala last year.

I think some people were a little sick of 11 straight above normal months of temps. Also, some have to worry about the lakes cooling so early potential snow events are not mixy/rain. You might argue that it hardly matters, but if we had a warm fall, it would. Thankfully, the fall has been coolish thus far.

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78 here in Goshen as I return to check this forum after an extended absence due to boring weather. Looking forward to some good fall color this month and an Octobomb or November witch. Colors are turning nicely in the Michiana area now.

Welcome back! I notice that IWX spoke of snow in their afternoon disco for the first time this season. Bring it on!

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD

INCLUDE THE CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION INCLUDING A RAIN/SNOW MIX

OR EVEN A CHANCE FOR SNOW ON SUNDAY WITH A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL

TROF. ALSO...CHALLENGES INCLUDE THE CHANCE FOR FROST AND FREEZING

TEMPERATURES MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR THIS PACKAGE...PREFER THE

SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS HAD GOOD RUN TO RUN

CONSISTENCY AND APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM REASONABLY WELL.

THE 500 MB ANALOGS WERE SHOWING MUCH BETTER CORRELATION THIS PERIOD

WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE WESTERN

GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. KEPT PRECIPITATION JUST

RAIN FOR NOW THIS WEEKEND. LAKE WATER TEMPS WERE STILL QUITE

WARM...ALTHOUGH WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -4C...CAN NOT

RULE OUT A RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN/SLEET MIX. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD

CLEAR OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSE TO FREEZING.

FROST OR POSSIBLY FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. THE ONGOING

CHANCES FOR RAIN ABOUT WEDNESDAY STILL APPEAR ON TRACK WITH THE NEXT

SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING THE MIDDLE OF

THE WEEK.

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It's freaking October the 4th, relax a little dude..

Are you seriously expecting Balls To The Walls ICE COLD from here through the end of winter? :huh:

Let it torch away right now, it's actually a good thing most times for the upcoming winter anyways.

You can't have snow/cold from October through March, that's just now how it works my man even in the best of winters ;)

I think what many of us (myself included) want is for a pattern similar to 1976-77 and 1980-81. Both of those years saw below average temperatures hit in October and last pretty much non stop through to early to mid February. Those two years show that it is possible to have early season cold in October and not have a mild November and winter.

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It's freaking October the 4th, relax a little dude..

Are you seriously expecting Balls To The Walls ICE COLD from here through the end of winter? :huh:

Let it torch away right now, it's actually a good thing most times for the upcoming winter anyways.

You can't have snow/cold from October through March, that's just now how it works my man even in the best of winters ;)

I was not really tense about it, lol. :santa: I wasn't expecting balls to the wall cold, no, of course not. But this happened to us last year in September, we froze early, and then NON STOP torch until Morch hit. And yes, I do mean Morch. It's my new name for the month. Just kind of upset that we run the possibility of doing this all over again.

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I think what many of us (myself included) want is for a pattern similar to 1976-77 and 1980-81. Both of those years saw below average temperatures hit in October and last pretty much non stop through to early to mid February. Those two years show that it is possible to have early season cold in October and not have a mild November and winter.

And last year and many other years shows us that you can have an early season cold shot and then... agony.

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And someone tell me if I should be happy about a warm enso and not an El Nino because as far as El Nino goes, I just am not seeing it happen.

From what I've researched, neutral to weak El Niño winters bring typical type winter weather to the Midwest and Great Lakes. Some good analog years have been mentioned around the board, 1951-1952 ONI of +0.6, 1976-1977 ONI of 0.6. You can check out what winters were neutral to slight El Niño here: http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml then compare to your local snowfall tallies records.

Just the fact that last winter was so rare, and a chance of something even remotely close to last winter happening again in back to back years; is extremely slim.

Blocking seems to have made a return, which is good. I'm more concerned with having too much cold air around and the storm track being shoved to the south this winter. It is still too early to see what the winter will start out like. If the Alaska vortex was present in November then I'd be a little more concerned.

P.S. Another positive is that Accuweather's forecast will usually bust somehow. Wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities to see the exact opposite of what they're predicting now. :lmao:

....

On another note, Skilling mentioned graupel mixing in with rain showers on Saturday.

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From what I've researched, neutral to weak El Niño winters bring typical type winter weather to the Midwest and Great Lakes. Some good analog years have been mentioned around the board, 1951-1952 ONI of +0.6, 1976-1977 ONI of 0.6. You can check out what winters were neutral to slight El Niño here: http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml then compare to your local snowfall tallies records.

Just the fact that last winter was so rare, and a chance of something even remotely close to last winter happening again in back to back years; is extremely slim.

Blocking seems to have made a return, which is good. I'm more concerned with having too much cold air around and the storm track being shoved to the south this winter. It is still too early to see what the winter will start out like. If the Alaska vortex was present in November then I'd be a little more concerned.

P.S. Another positive is that Accuweather's forecast will usually bust somehow. Wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities to see the exact opposite of what they're predicting now. :lmao:

....

On another note, Skilling mentioned graupel mixing in with rain showers on Saturday.

Don't speak too soon. I draw your attention to the back-to-back busts of 1931-32 and 1932-33.

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