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October 2012 General Discussion


Powerball

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Any reason why you use Lansing as your main point of reference.?

Because Howell doesn't have a monthly climate report that I can find. Lansing is 35 miles from me... Detroit is 55 miles and 300 feet lower than Howell. Lansing is much more logical.

Jon

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Because Howell doesn't have a monthly climate report that I can find. Lansing is 35 miles from me... Detroit is 55 miles and 300 feet lower than Howell. Lansing is much more logical.

Jon

DTW or DET is 55 miles? I don't think DTW is 55 miles from Howell. I can see DET coming close to 55 miles from Howell. I thought as the crow flies DTW is 26 miles from Howell. That making it the best climo site for YBY.

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DTW or DET is 55 miles? I don't think DTW is 55 miles from Howell. I can see DET coming close to 55 miles from Howell. I thought as the crow flies DTW is 26 miles from Howell. That making it the best climo site for YBY.

Hasn't DTX only been keeping record since 1996? How could they have a 30 year average to baseline? Isn't DTW the airport in Romulus? That's quite far from me... Like 50+ miles.

Jon

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DTW isn't 50+ miles from Howell.

Romulus is WAY farther than Lansing... I can drive to Lansing in 20 minutes.. look at a map.. DTW is near Josh.

It's 29 miles to Lansing and 41 miles to DTW. Lansing is almost due west and within 100 feet elevation. DTW is well south and east and a few hundred feet lower.

Howell is located on the Lansing geologic plain, DTW is on the lake Erie basin. My weather mimics Lansing.

Jon

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FWA recorded 0.1" of snow in October. I drove by the airport the morning that it snowed and saw no accumulation on anything. It must have happened before daylight.

Stat padding.

Very early and late season snows are definitely more for the books than the enjoyment of a snowcover. This is going to go WAY OT from an October general disco thread, but just some thoughts as winter approaches. Interesting thing I was just thinking about wrt "stat-padding" (the annoying phrase seemingly coined last winter on here).....think about a small snowfall. Its margin for error is quite low. Whether a November 1" of snow gets sucked back into the grass in 2 hours, or a January 0.1" lingers on the frozen ground for days....the actual amount of snowfall is pretty easy and straight-forward, and its much easier to scrutinize totals if we are suspicious of inflating or lowballing. But think about a big, drifty snowstorm. Its possible that even the best, most trusted observer can have a margin of error of +/- 1, 2, or even 3 inches in some big blizzard. We may question the total but understand how hard it is to measure in such a storm, not thinking twice about the total (unless its WAY off surrounding areas). Then two days later, we could be right back to scrutinizing a "stat-padding" 0.5" snowfall.

Anyway back on topic...October is over, bring on snow smile.png

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Romulus is WAY farther than Lansing... I can drive to Lansing in 20 minutes.. look at a map.. DTW is near Josh.

It's 29 miles to Lansing and 41 miles to DTW. Lansing is almost due west and within 100 feet elevation. DTW is well south and east and a few hundred feet lower.

Howell is located on the Lansing geologic plain, DTW is on the lake Erie basin. My weather mimics Lansing.

Jon

The Lansing Airport is on the N side of 69 near 96, not downtown. Also both are 39 miles from Howell as the crow flies.

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Very early and late season snows are definitely more for the books than the enjoyment of a snowcover. This is going to go WAY OT from an October general disco thread, but just some thoughts as winter approaches. Interesting thing I was just thinking about wrt "stat-padding" (the annoying phrase seemingly coined last winter on here).....think about a small snowfall. Its margin for error is quite low. Whether a November 1" of snow gets sucked back into the grass in 2 hours, or a January 0.1" lingers on the frozen ground for days....the actual amount of snowfall is pretty easy and straight-forward, and its much easier to scrutinize totals if we are suspicious of inflating or lowballing. But think about a big, drifty snowstorm. Its possible that even the best, most trusted observer can have a margin of error of +/- 1, 2, or even 3 inches in some big blizzard. We may question the total but understand how hard it is to measure in such a storm, not thinking twice about the total (unless its WAY off surrounding areas). Then two days later, we could be right back to scrutinizing a "stat-padding" 0.5" snowfall.

Anyway back on topic...October is over, bring on snow smile.png

You bring up a good point. I've been measuring snow for more years than most people on this board have been alive and it's much easier to be accurate while measuring a small amount rather than 8" of blowing fluff.

I was just trolling you with the stat padding comment. I wanted to be the first to use it this year and it will be the last time I use it. I can make no promises about Hoosier's favorite, DAB. popcorn.gif

Bad math on my part. Was actually 5.00" on the nose.

Wet month for you. I had 4.17" IMBY. Don't worry about past years. You are due and it may come when you least expect it.

The Lansing Airport is on the N side of 69 near 96, not downtown. Also both are 39 miles from Howell as the crow flies.

In that case, based on terrain and elevation, I'd go with Lansing too.

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The Lansing Airport is on the N side of 69 near 96, not downtown. Also both are 39 miles from Howell as the crow flies.

I'm also on the west side of Howell... Figuring in the elevation and being west of the higher elevation in SE Michigan, it makes more sense using Lansing. DTW is still farther from me. Capital airport is 35 miles from my house, DTW is 41. Again... Makes no sense figuring all these factors.

eseperug.jpg

We done with this now?

Jon

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I'm also on the west side of Howell... Figuring in the elevation and being west of the higher elevation in SE Michigan, it makes more sense using Lansing. DTW is still farther from me. Capital airport is 35 miles from my house, DTW is 41. Again... Makes no sense figuring all these factors.

eseperug.jpg

We done with this now?

Jon

We are now that you have your information correct.

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I'm also on the west side of Howell... Figuring in the elevation and being west of the higher elevation in SE Michigan, it makes more sense using Lansing. DTW is still farther from me. Capital airport is 35 miles from my house, DTW is 41. Again... Makes no sense figuring all these factors.

eseperug.jpg

We done with this now?

Jon

West of the higher elevation of SE mi? Say what?

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Lapeer - Hillsdale glacial interlobe. That line of hills and lakes running sw to ne from Hillsdale to Lapeer county. I thought you used to read MSU GEO pages? This is common knowledge.

Jon

The Irish hills. I see gotcha now. They also blast dead center and north through Oakland county around Lake Orion, Oxford, Clarkston, and so on.

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Flint only averages 4 more inches of snow annually than Detroit. Lansing averages nearly 10" more than Flint (and nearly 14" more than Detroit).

Flint doesn't get in on the same I96 LES as Lansing or Howell for that matter. I'm sure this is where the difference is.

Jon

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