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October 2012 General Discussion


Powerball

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Lights flickered for a moment there--awfully weird for just some thunder. Rain is just amazing right now--new sod planted at the start of October is getting more than its fair share of moisture lately. Deficits here in the eastern half of Kenosha county have got to be shrinking with all the rain this month has brought.

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Weather is always interesting, a write up from LOT about 80º+ temps. If Wed or Thu doesn't get to 80º at ORD, then this snipet from the story applies...

INTERESTINGLY...THE LAST TIME THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 80 DEGREES IN

CHICAGO WAS BACK ON SEPTEMBER 12TH WHEN THE HIGH WAS 86 DEGREES. IF

CHICAGO FAILS TO REACH 80 DEGREES AGAIN THIS YEAR THEN 2012 WOULD GO

DOWN TIED FOR THE 7TH EARLIEST LAST 80 DEGREE DAY EVER IN CHICAGO.

OF THE OTHER YEARS IN THE TOP 10 EARLIEST LAST 80 DEGREE DAYS ALMOST

ALL OF THEM OCCURRED BACK PRIOR TO 1900 WHEN OFFICIAL TEMPERATURES

WERE TAKEN CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH ONLY 1996 HAVING AN

EARLIER LAST 80 DEGREE DAY THAN THIS YEAR SINCE THE OFFICIAL

OBSERVATION LOCATION WAS MOVED FARTHER INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

HERE ARE THE CURRENT TOP 10 EARLIEST LAST 80 DEGREE DAYS IN

CHICAGO...

RANK DATE

1 8/31/1876

2 9/7/1890

3 9/9/1875

4 9/10/1896

9/10/1996

6 9/11/1888

7 9/12/1874

9/12/2012 (THROUGH OCTOBER 23RD)

9 9/14/1889

9/14/1894

9/14/1917

Link to full story: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=88605&source=0

I assume they'll get to 80 on one of those days though.

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Maybe you guys will appreciate this. I can't think of any thread on this board about the medium range pattern right now. Wow. Look at this. Blocking exists continously all the way from Scandinavia to west of Alaska. This is a current analysis. And where's the trough?? Seattle. Weird.

post-1182-0-34790200-1351017842_thumb.gi

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Maybe you guys will appreciate this. I can't think of any thread on this board about the medium range pattern right now. Wow. Look at this. Blocking exists continously all the way from Scandinavia to west of Alaska. This is a current analysis. And where's the trough?? Seattle. Weird.

post-1182-0-34790200-1351017842_thumb.gi

That is weird. I wonder if the position of the trough more so over the Bering Sea has to do with the small ridge over the Midwest now?...

This weekend the bottom drops out though.

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Maybe you guys will appreciate this. I can't think of any thread on this board about the medium range pattern right now. Wow. Look at this. Blocking exists continously all the way from Scandinavia to west of Alaska. This is a current analysis. And where's the trough?? Seattle. Weird.

Fast forward 120 hours on the GEFS. Highly anomalous blocking.

12zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNA120.gif

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12z GFS dropped temps in the extended... lots of uncertainty down the road? I guess we'll find out. Still stuck under thick clouds...warmth is right on the doorstep with 70F in NE Iowa and an hr south in Prairie Du Chien... 61F here.

We've warmed up to 63 °F but the fog is getting thicker, GFS says next time we see the sun is on Friday. Time to invest in a sun lamp.

Too bad that hurricane-noreaster isn't going to retrograde until it reaches the Midwest anymore per the GFS. ECMWF destroys New York City so that's something.

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I hear you on the sun lamp.. typical fall seems to have a lot of clouds.. Up to 69F. I did see the sun 2 or 3 times poke out here...would have been very warm if it would have stayed.

forecast for LSE:

  • Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 47.
  • Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 29.
  • Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 43.
  • Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.
  • Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 44.
  • Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.
  • Monday A slight chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 45.
  • Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.
  • Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 47.

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Weather is always interesting, a write up from LOT about 80º+ temps. If Wed or Thu doesn't get to 80º at ORD, then this snipet from the story applies...

INTERESTINGLY...THE LAST TIME THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 80 DEGREES IN

CHICAGO WAS BACK ON SEPTEMBER 12TH WHEN THE HIGH WAS 86 DEGREES. IF

CHICAGO FAILS TO REACH 80 DEGREES AGAIN THIS YEAR THEN 2012 WOULD GO

DOWN TIED FOR THE 7TH EARLIEST LAST 80 DEGREE DAY EVER IN CHICAGO.

OF THE OTHER YEARS IN THE TOP 10 EARLIEST LAST 80 DEGREE DAYS ALMOST

ALL OF THEM OCCURRED BACK PRIOR TO 1900 WHEN OFFICIAL TEMPERATURES

WERE TAKEN CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH ONLY 1996 HAVING AN

EARLIER LAST 80 DEGREE DAY THAN THIS YEAR SINCE THE OFFICIAL

OBSERVATION LOCATION WAS MOVED FARTHER INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

HERE ARE THE CURRENT TOP 10 EARLIEST LAST 80 DEGREE DAYS IN

CHICAGO...

RANK DATE

1 8/31/1876

2 9/7/1890

3 9/9/1875

4 9/10/1896

9/10/1996

6 9/11/1888

7 9/12/1874

9/12/2012 (THROUGH OCTOBER 23RD)

9 9/14/1889

9/14/1894

9/14/1917

Link to full story: http://www.crh.noaa....=88605&source=0

I assume they'll get to 80 on one of those days though.

Forecast has it below 80, looks like tomorrow is the only threat.

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Fog intensities have been fluctuating tonight. One minute I look out and it's like pea soup and the next I can see down the block. Airport has been between 0.25 - 2.50 miles tonight. Sitting at about 57° right now. Wonder if it will get to 70° tomorrow?

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Well it looks like the models have backed off the storm of the century.

I'm not surprised. I'm pretty sure 1950 was the last time we've saw something close to that anyway.

EDIT: I'm referring to the low retrograding so far to the NW with the snow potential. I can still see the low impacting the east coast.

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Any chance at Hurricane Sandy bringing a little wet snow to parts of the Ohio Valley? Some of the models seem to be hinting at this being a possibility.

The 6z GFS shows an interesting solution, with the storm system spawning a new low pressure over New England that retrogrades west to Lake Erie. It shows around an inch of precipitation with conditions thermodynamically favorable for snowfall.

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