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October 2012 General Discussion


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Anyway, GFS/Ensembles are progging a pretty strong UL trough to pass through the GL region around Thursday of next week, although moisture will probably be lacking due to this s/w sweeping across the Gulf this weekend, then lingering on the East Coast for a bit before lifting out.

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Regardless of precip and precip type, if the 0z GFS came to pass, looks like the entire area (meaning most of the Great Lakes region) would experience a hard frost and probably freeze Friday night.

Possible, though normally at this time range the models tend to overdo the strength of the cold air. This is typical in transitional seasons for the models to over do cool-downs/warm-ups. The pattern would be favorable for cooler weather next weekend but at what magnitude remains to be seen.

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Stebo, I'm pretty sure the euro is at least as cold since it is further se with the low. Who knows though.

Yeah I was speaking on behalf of both models, they both tend to overdo the early season cold shots. Don't be surprised if it verifies 2-3c warmer at 850mb by the time it occurs.

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Yeah I was speaking on behalf of both models, they both tend to overdo the early season cold shots. Don't be surprised if it verifies 2-3c warmer at 850mb by the time it occurs.

Its the total opposite with a warm pattern. Always ends up warmer then showed days before.

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:baby:

Come on...this is a winter wx board at heart...and we haven't had any winter wx in the Midwest for ~18 months. What's the big deal about getting excited over some upcoming cold in the long range?

This IS a winter wx board at heart for sure. But lol at the 18 months, more like 7 months....last winter sucked, but there was still winter weather.

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1045 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES HAVE CEASED FOR THE FALL SEASON...

IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND LOCAL AGRICULTURAL

SPECIALISTS...IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED

ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO EARLIER FROSTS AND FREEZES.

THUS...FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS WILL NO LONGER BE ISSUED

UNTIL THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS AGAIN IN SPRING 2013.

Can't find it but I think LaCrosse did it too.

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If this was in a joking manner, than haha. If you werre being a d-nk, then I'll stop when a mod tells me to stop, thanks. There's nothing else to talk about right now. Sorry there isn't any severe to ruin people's lives and for you to get your jollies off of, but that's just the way it is, so if you're bored, listen to some music, and relax, knowing there will be more tornado outbreaks, plenty of carnage for you to rejoice over and say things like "I wonder if you could hear the screams". Yeah, I do read what you post and you come across as someone who dehumanizes weather, rejoices over outbreaks and just looks at the ef5 for the ef5's sake, not for what it just did to 5000 people. That's probably not ehat you are, at least I hope to God not, but this a just a computer screen, and we all can only take what we see on here and form opinions.

I know others don't have a problem with severe, and love it, and I love the beauty of storms as much as anyone, but I get really turned off when I hear people say crap like what I wrote above. God that was awesome, did you see that, oh but it's too bad it just took 150 lives, shucks.

All I have to do to protect myself from cold weatther is put on a jacket and maybe go hunting. I'll probably get spanked for this but I KNOW I'm just putting into words what a lot of people on here feel about you.

<rant over>

Read more and post less.

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Yes, they have at least most of Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and rural parts of Illinois.

Some areas have even seen their first Snow already up in N WI/MN..

I would say 2/3rds of the region that the map covers above has seen frost already. Somewhere online, you can view the low temperatures (and highs) within the last 30 days on a dot plot map. - Can't think what site that is though...

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If this was in a joking manner, than haha. If you werre being a d-nk, then I'll stop when a mod tells me to stop, thanks. There's nothing else to talk about right now. Sorry there isn't any severe to ruin people's lives and for you to get your jollies off of, but that's just the way it is, so if you're bored, listen to some music, and relax, knowing there will be more tornado outbreaks, plenty of carnage for you to rejoice over and say things like "I wonder if you could hear the screams". Yeah, I do read what you post and you come across as someone who dehumanizes weather, rejoices over outbreaks and just looks at the ef5 for the ef5's sake, not for what it just did to 5000 people. That's probably not ehat you are, at least I hope to God not, but this a just a computer screen, and we all can only take what we see on here and form opinions.

I know others don't have a problem with severe, and love it, and I love the beauty of storms as much as anyone, but I get really turned off when I hear people say crap like what I wrote above. God that was awesome, did you see that, oh but it's too bad it just took 150 lives, shucks.

All I have to do to protect myself from cold weatther is put on a jacket and maybe go hunting. I'll probably get spanked for this but I KNOW I'm just putting into words what a lot of people on here feel about you.

<rant over>

:facepalm: What on earth are you talking about...

Sure I am interested by tornadoes, because I am intrigued by the violence of atmospheric phenomena, that italicized part of your post I highlighted is...just...wow.

Also, to take your fatality argument seriously, extreme heat and cold kill more people around the world yearly than tornadoes or virtually any other severe weather.

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If this was in a joking manner, than haha. If you werre being a d-nk, then I'll stop when a mod tells me to stop, thanks. There's nothing else to talk about right now. Sorry there isn't any severe to ruin people's lives and for you to get your jollies off of, but that's just the way it is, so if you're bored, listen to some music, and relax, knowing there will be more tornado outbreaks, plenty of carnage for you to rejoice over and say things like "I wonder if you could hear the screams". Yeah, I do read what you post and you come across as someone who dehumanizes weather, rejoices over outbreaks and just looks at the ef5 for the ef5's sake, not for what it just did to 5000 people. That's probably not ehat you are, at least I hope to God not, but this a just a computer screen, and we all can only take what we see on here and form opinions.

I know others don't have a problem with severe, and love it, and I love the beauty of storms as much as anyone, but I get really turned off when I hear people say crap like what I wrote above. God that was awesome, did you see that, oh but it's too bad it just took 150 lives, shucks.

All I have to do to protect myself from cold weatther is put on a jacket and maybe go hunting. I'll probably get spanked for this but I KNOW I'm just putting into words what a lot of people on here feel about you.

Epic implosion, lol. Epic :weenie:

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Epic implosion, lol. Epic :weenie:

Yes, yes it was. Andy, I apologize to you publicly on the board here. That sh-t belongs in the garbage that I said. I just want you to know a little of my past history. Had a great aunt and uncle hit by a tor, lost everything, missed losing their baby by a whisker, and the Wadena tor of 2010 took everything my sister-in-laws mother had, almost including her life, missing my brother and sister in law by, oh, 1/8th of a mile, also had friends in North Dakota hit by a tor in 2010 while they weren't home thankfully.

We in Minnesota had to live through a weekly 10% or Higher hatched for 5 weeks in 2010, and then along came 2011, and these days you can see this stuff basically live and in color, and it just sent me over the edge a little bit. I'd be happy never to see a tor again.

So I just went off. There is no fault in you for being fascinated by severe weather. Nor anyone else. It's suddenly in the last 2 years become a touchy subject for me, and I let it get the better of me sometimes. The problem is all me, and that crap had no place on this public board. I'm headed back to delete it right now, and again I say, I'm sorry for tearing into you like that. I just wanted people to know a little bit why I'm so touchy about it. And I used to chase the darn things too, so it's not like I don't have a fascination for storms. I do. I've just become a fall and winter lover when I don't have to worry about the damn things. And yes, I know the chances of anyone getting hit by one are just about nil.

Again, I apologize. Totally uncalled for.

Back to weather.

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MOST areas of the Midwest have already seen freezing temps? That can't be right......

It hasn't even dropped below 40 here yet, and this is in one of the coldest locations in Ohio. The long-term average first freezing temperatures occur around October 5. I don't even think we've seen more than patchy frost in the usual low-lying spots.

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1045 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES HAVE CEASED FOR THE FALL SEASON...

IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND LOCAL AGRICULTURAL

SPECIALISTS...IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED

ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO EARLIER FROSTS AND FREEZES.

THUS...FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS WILL NO LONGER BE ISSUED

UNTIL THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS AGAIN IN SPRING 2013.

Can't find it but I think LaCrosse did it too.

I believe MKX is still doing them until about next week. Madison has had 2 freezes so far, both at 32 °F, so regions around here and west are near the end of growing season for sure but no hard freezes except maybe in some of the valleys, so farmers who used countermeasures around Madison are probably still growing. Towards Lake Michigan there probably hasn't even been a widespread light freeze.

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