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October 2012 General Discussion


Powerball

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We have had on and off moderate to heavy rain for the last two hours. Probably am nearing a half inch right now. Pretty nice considering it looked like I might see a thin line of rain then be dryslotted for awhile. Temp hovering around 56F right now. Not even sure it hit 60 in my locale.

Looks like just three days of Indian Summer/torch then we get at least a couple day period of below normal temps right in time for trick or treat weekend.

Regarding the storm, it would be interesting to live near the East Coast, but if the signs continue to point toward these aggressive solutions, things could get serious rather quickly. Still, the overall prospects are probably low given it's still 7-10 days out.

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Dang - 926mb would be like a Cat. 4 or something!

Even if the ridiculous pressure verifies, there's no guarantee on the pressure-wind relationship. We have seen 958 mb tropical storms lately. Just something to keep in mind. On another note, it will be interesting to see what this thing gets called when/if it heads toward the US. Subtropical is not the easiest thing for the casual person to understand.

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Drought monitor says yes.

Sure, but we're going on our third straight month of above normal precipitation...severity has been greatly reduced. Tide has turned.

Numerically...I'm sure you know this, but LAF has a lot of missing data with respect to rainfall. Local observers are in the 28-30" range for the year, pretty close to normal (30.18" for LAF).

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http://forecast.weat...ossary=1��Check out the extended long range section of this afternoon's AFD out of GRR. It could be interesting if the ECMWF plays out as shown.

LONG TERM

(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE. RAIN CHANCES WILL

PREDOMINATE INTO SATURDAY WITH SEVERAL POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMA

EJECTING FROM A BROAD UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN

HIGH POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HAS

DIMINISHED AS SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE LESS

AGGRESSIVE WITH RETROGRADING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED

QPF MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. CONVENTIONAL WISDOM SUGGESTS

THAT FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE EVEN LESS WESTWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BECAUSE ONE OF THE FACTORS IN THE EVENTUAL OUTCOME IS TROPICAL

DEPRESSION 18 CURRENTLY IN THE CARIBBEAN...THIS FORECAST IS

EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN.

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LONG TERM

(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE. RAIN CHANCES WILL

PREDOMINATE INTO SATURDAY WITH SEVERAL POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMA

EJECTING FROM A BROAD UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN

HIGH POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HAS

DIMINISHED AS SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE LESS

AGGRESSIVE WITH RETROGRADING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED

QPF MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. CONVENTIONAL WISDOM SUGGESTS

THAT FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE EVEN LESS WESTWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BECAUSE ONE OF THE FACTORS IN THE EVENTUAL OUTCOME IS TROPICAL

DEPRESSION 18 CURRENTLY IN THE CARIBBEAN...THIS FORECAST IS

EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN.

Sorry, I was looking at this morning's AFD, not this afternoon.

.WEEK TWO....(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

IT IS NEXT WEEK WHEN THE WEATHER GETS INTERESTING FOR LOWER

MICHIGAN. FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS IN A ROW THE ECMWF TAKES THE

TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR CUBA TODAY AND CAPTURES IT WITH THE LARGE SCALE

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THAT PULLS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM NORTHWARD...

UP THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THEN BACK WESTWARD TO NEAR

MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND STALLS OVER THE

CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

IF THIS WERE TO ACTUALLY HAPPEN MICHIGAN WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH IN THE

COLD AIR THAT WE COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW AND IT MAY NOT BE A

TRIVIAL EVENT. LIKELY FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN

WOULD HAVE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AS THE UPPER TROUGH

CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. IT IS IN THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME THE STORM

WOULD REALLY BEGIN. WITH THE CURRENT ECMWF SOLUTION THE

PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE

ENDING. THERE WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WIND WITH THE

PRECIPITATION EVENT IF IT IN FACT IT GETS THIS FAR WEST. CURIOUSLY

THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE MORE LIKE THE ECWMF THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS

ON THIS SYSTEM. SO... WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY TO

SEE OF THIS SCENARIO REALLY DOES PLAY OUT.

LATER NEXT WEEK THE SYSTEM WOULD FINALLY SHEAR OUT AND A SLOW

WARMING TREND WOULD BEGIN.

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Yeah we are still in a long term drought because water levels are still below normal. From a meteorological/public perspective we are obviously no longer in a drought.

Yeah you're right about the water levels. Of course I look at things statistically too much (i.e. rainfall totals).

But hey, at least the Wabash at the LAF gauge is up to 4 feet...from bottoming out just under a foot in July. :arrowhead:

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Whatever happens, this is pretty exciting stuff to follow...definitely high in the "cool factor." There's a lot that has to go right for the crazy scenario to come to pass...for starters, we are battling climo as most Atlantic landfalling systems do not have much impact so far west. But with the amount of blocking being shown it at least opens up the possibility of this not being able to escape east.

This map pretty much shows what a chore it is to get systems of this origin far enough west.

at201218_climo.gif

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