SpartyOn Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 DTW latest reading is 67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 EURO looks like it's going OTS. Edit: It might try to retrograde it late. But at the very least it's delaying the phase by a solid 24hrs+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 EURO looks like it's going OTS. Not so fast. Definitely farther east but looks like it's getting captured by 192 hours...and super deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Not so fast. Definitely farther east but looks like it's getting captured by 192 hours...and super deep. Yeah, it might pull it out of its ass late. Is it just me or has this potential been stuck in the 192-216 range for days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yeah, it might pull it out of its ass late. Is it just me or has this potential been stuck in the 192-216 range for days? Seems that way doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Picked up a 0.10" of rain. Heavy, low overcast here, upper 50s. Upper 60s seem like a long shot today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro is even deeper than the GGEM lol Edit: save worthy pic if I've ever seen one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 It's like Micheal Bay is controlling the GEM and EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Dang - 926mb would be like a Cat. 4 or something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Kind of wish I lived along the East Coast right now. Even if something close to the EURO or GGEM occurs, it would be worth being over there to see the impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Kind of wish I lived along the East Coast right now. Even if something close to the EURO or GGEM occurs, it would be worth being over there to see the impacts. Book a hotel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Book a hotel I would if I weren't in college Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 We have had on and off moderate to heavy rain for the last two hours. Probably am nearing a half inch right now. Pretty nice considering it looked like I might see a thin line of rain then be dryslotted for awhile. Temp hovering around 56F right now. Not even sure it hit 60 in my locale. Looks like just three days of Indian Summer/torch then we get at least a couple day period of below normal temps right in time for trick or treat weekend. Regarding the storm, it would be interesting to live near the East Coast, but if the signs continue to point toward these aggressive solutions, things could get serious rather quickly. Still, the overall prospects are probably low given it's still 7-10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The storm on the Euro would be quite epic out east, but would have no impacts on weather this far west. Would much rather see a nice storm spin up in the Midwest personally. Clouds really keeping temps down today. Mid 70s that were forecast will be missed by about 10 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Dang - 926mb would be like a Cat. 4 or something! Even if the ridiculous pressure verifies, there's no guarantee on the pressure-wind relationship. We have seen 958 mb tropical storms lately. Just something to keep in mind. On another note, it will be interesting to see what this thing gets called when/if it heads toward the US. Subtropical is not the easiest thing for the casual person to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The storm on the Euro would be quite epic out east, but would have no impacts on weather this far west. Would much rather see a nice storm spin up in the Midwest personally. +1 As for rainfall here today, 0.38" at LAF. Up to 3.78" for October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I would start taking precautions now if I was in the eastern lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 +1 As for rainfall here today, 0.38" at LAF. Up to 3.78" for October. Maybe we can get out of the drought locally by winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Maybe we can get out of the drought locally by winter? Are we really still in a drought, locally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Are we really still in a drought, locally? Drought monitor says yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 maybe some drifting leaves for se mi? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GRR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Check out the extended long range section of this afternoon's AFD out of GRR. It could be interesting if the ECMWF plays out as shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Drought monitor says yes. Sure, but we're going on our third straight month of above normal precipitation...severity has been greatly reduced. Tide has turned. Numerically...I'm sure you know this, but LAF has a lot of missing data with respect to rainfall. Local observers are in the 28-30" range for the year, pretty close to normal (30.18" for LAF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 http://forecast.weat...ossary=1��Check out the extended long range section of this afternoon's AFD out of GRR. It could be interesting if the ECMWF plays out as shown. LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE. RAIN CHANCES WILL PREDOMINATE INTO SATURDAY WITH SEVERAL POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMA EJECTING FROM A BROAD UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HIGH POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HAS DIMINISHED AS SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH RETROGRADING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED QPF MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. CONVENTIONAL WISDOM SUGGESTS THAT FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE EVEN LESS WESTWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM. BECAUSE ONE OF THE FACTORS IN THE EVENTUAL OUTCOME IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18 CURRENTLY IN THE CARIBBEAN...THIS FORECAST IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Drought monitor says yes. Yeah we are still in a long term drought because water levels are still below normal. From a meteorological/public perspective we are obviously no longer in a drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE. RAIN CHANCES WILL PREDOMINATE INTO SATURDAY WITH SEVERAL POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMA EJECTING FROM A BROAD UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HIGH POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HAS DIMINISHED AS SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH RETROGRADING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED QPF MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. CONVENTIONAL WISDOM SUGGESTS THAT FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE EVEN LESS WESTWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM. BECAUSE ONE OF THE FACTORS IN THE EVENTUAL OUTCOME IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18 CURRENTLY IN THE CARIBBEAN...THIS FORECAST IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN. Sorry, I was looking at this morning's AFD, not this afternoon. .WEEK TWO....(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) IT IS NEXT WEEK WHEN THE WEATHER GETS INTERESTING FOR LOWER MICHIGAN. FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS IN A ROW THE ECMWF TAKES THE TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR CUBA TODAY AND CAPTURES IT WITH THE LARGE SCALE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THAT PULLS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM NORTHWARD... UP THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THEN BACK WESTWARD TO NEAR MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND STALLS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS WERE TO ACTUALLY HAPPEN MICHIGAN WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH IN THE COLD AIR THAT WE COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW AND IT MAY NOT BE A TRIVIAL EVENT. LIKELY FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WOULD HAVE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. IT IS IN THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME THE STORM WOULD REALLY BEGIN. WITH THE CURRENT ECMWF SOLUTION THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING. THERE WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WIND WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IF IT IN FACT IT GETS THIS FAR WEST. CURIOUSLY THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE MORE LIKE THE ECWMF THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS ON THIS SYSTEM. SO... WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY TO SEE OF THIS SCENARIO REALLY DOES PLAY OUT. LATER NEXT WEEK THE SYSTEM WOULD FINALLY SHEAR OUT AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WOULD BEGIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yeah we are still in a long term drought because water levels are still below normal. From a meteorological/public perspective we are obviously no longer in a drought. Yeah you're right about the water levels. Of course I look at things statistically too much (i.e. rainfall totals). But hey, at least the Wabash at the LAF gauge is up to 4 feet...from bottoming out just under a foot in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 DTX has ditched the snow wording for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Whatever happens, this is pretty exciting stuff to follow...definitely high in the "cool factor." There's a lot that has to go right for the crazy scenario to come to pass...for starters, we are battling climo as most Atlantic landfalling systems do not have much impact so far west. But with the amount of blocking being shown it at least opens up the possibility of this not being able to escape east. This map pretty much shows what a chore it is to get systems of this origin far enough west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 MKE going lows in the lowers 60's here tues and wed night.. that's only about 6 degrees warmer than the avg high. 62 is the avg low here on july 3rd. could make a run at the record high of 76 thurs. ac will be cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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