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October 2012 General Discussion


Powerball

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And it's currently an outlier - and not a consistent outlier, given the 12z GFS earlier...

The 18z GFS as well, the only thing that is on its side is the 00z NOGAPS which is a complete 180 from the 12z run. Basically the 2 models showing no storm had it 12 hours previous.

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Yeah, but the GFS moving away is a warning sign. It usually is the best fall model. Remember 2 years ago, the models had a similiar tropical/polary phase setup in early November and that busted ugly on the foreign models while the GFS never fell for the fake.

If the GFS would show something, it would help the cause.

The GFS handles the tropical system in an unrealistic fashion, it gets into the Bahamas and then spits a low out of its East side opening the door for the rest of the circulation to follow later on. That just wont happen like that at all...

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Small area of 500 mb heights of 516 dm over PA at 216 hours on that run. That is almost unfathomable for late October.

Not only that, but according to snow maps on AccuPro, SW PA and Western MD are in an area of 36-48" of snow. Easily the most snow I've ever seen from the ECMWF outside major mountain ranges, and the most snowfall projected in October.

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Good thing summer is over because there is going to be a shortage on weenies. lol at gfs being an outlier just because its not handing out Ron Jeremy plumper solutions ATM. Models won't have a clue for days yet and I pretty much guarantee the Euro will go back the way it once showed like the current GFS for a couple runs and the GFS will hop in the current euro bed for some model porn viewing before we can start taking the models more seriously in this complex

setup. Way to early to call any model an outlier and if I was it surely wouldn't the model I hate the most (GFS) out of the Big 4 but it would be ones like the Euro and GGEM that are spitting out runs from some super weenies computer.

Should be the best week of reading weenies gone wild and weather tracking in quite some time even if the mostly likely solution is nothing but meh for most of us except, Etobicoke, ON.

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Good thing summer is over because there is going to be a shortage on weenies. lol at gfs being an outlier just because its not handing out Ron Jeremy plumper solutions ATM. Models won't have a clue for days yet and I pretty much guarantee the Euro will go back the way it once showed like the current GFS for a couple runs and the GFS will hop in the current euro bed for some model porn viewing before we can start taking the models more seriously in this complex

setup. Way to early to call any model an outlier and if I was it surely wouldn't the model I hate the most (GFS) out of the Big 4 but it would be ones like the Euro and GGEM that are spitting out runs from some super weenies computer.

Should be the best week of reading weenies gone wild and weather tracking in quite some time even if the mostly likely solution is nothing but meh for most of us except, Etobicoke, ON.

Right now the GFS is an outlier considering all the other models showing something completely different... That is the exact definition of an outlier.

I think the boat has sailed on this one considering how the GFS has backed off, it was never gonna be more than a fantasy storm. The tropical disturbance has barely organized since all the hype started.

? It has been organizing all night, wouldn't be shocked to see a depression today down there maybe as soon as 11AM.

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not everybody agrees with you, mr perfect.

I am not saying it is going to happen but I'm not going to lie and say that the GFS is right at this juncture especially with a lot of evidence pointing to the contrary. Hell the GFS 12 hours ago had something closer to the amplified solutions. So to jump on the GFS bandwagon knowing its known biases (progressiveness and struggles with tropical systems) would be a disservice to those reading this thread

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I am not saying it is going to happen but I'm not going to lie and say that the GFS is right at this juncture especially with a lot of evidence pointing to the contrary. Hell the GFS 12 hours ago had something closer to the amplified solutions. So to jump on the GFS bandwagon knowing its known biases (progressiveness and struggles with tropical systems) would be a disservice to those reading this thread

Guess all I'm trying to say is IMO I'll call the models that show the near perfect weenie storm ATM the outlier for now. It would be a disservice to the forum admins and mods not to.. Truth is... you, the models or anybody at this time with any great confidence can say which way this will go. Lots of model porn and flip flopping to enjoy yet before things will become more clearer and in the end probably meet somewhere close in the middle and no big deal for many if any in this sub-forum.

I'm done taking anything too serious until much later in the week...its not worth it and not worth the risk of us starting to jump on one another.. Lets just enjoy the fantasy porn model runs and pray the early 5% chance you've put on the euro and ggem play out...we all sickly deep down want the most fascinating and devastating solution to play out.

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Guess all I'm trying to say is IMO I'll call the models that show the near perfect weenie storm ATM the outlier for now. It would be a disservice to the forum admins and mods not to.. Truth is... you, the models or anybody at this time with any great confidence can say which way this will go. Lots of model porn and flip flopping to enjoy yet before things will become more clearer and in the end probably meet somewhere close in the middle and no big deal for many if any in this sub-forum.

I'm done taking anything too serious until much later in the week...its not worth it and not worth the risk of us starting to jump on one another.. Lets just enjoy the fantasy porn model runs and pray the early 5% chance you've put on the euro and ggem play out...we all sickly deep down want the most interesting and devastating solution to play out.

Even a middle ground solution would affect the Eastern Lakes, we have a lot of posters from here and Eastward. Plus I would probably bump that 5% to 10% now considering the Euro didn't back down an inch overnight, and this thing is probably going to be a depression very soon.

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there is no arguing about the depression not developing on my end.. I have been on that mess like stink on **** for days out in fantasy land. Its what happens down the road is the million dollar question with next to zero answer ATM.

Guess its what we interpret meet in the middle to be and the effect it has on the eastern lakes. My thoughts of meet in the middle is naso much of a big deal ATM. Like I said.. I'm done with taking anything even remotely serious until way later in the week. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the euro at 12z looks nothing like its two previous runs. Or maybe it will even come farther NW :devilsmiley:

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there is no arguing about the depression not developing on my end.. I have been on that mess like stink on **** for days out in fantasy land. Its what happens down the road is the million dollar question with next to zero answer ATM.

Guess its what we interpret meet in the middle to be and the effect it has on the eastern lakes and canada. My thoughts of meet in the middle is naso much of a big deal ATM. Like I said.. I'm done with taking anything even remotely serious until way later in the week. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the euro at 12z looks nothing like its two previous runs. Or maybe it will even come farther NW :devilsmiley:

Yeah I mean I'm not locking anything in by any stretch of the imagination, I just would like something exciting to track, hell even if it snowed 30" somewhere and all I got was rain and wind I would be completely fine with it.

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Picked up 0.13" so far this morning. Been some slow rumbles of thunder, but nothing too exciting. Was expecting more of a scattered storm scenario instead of this linear complex. The end result was more of a benign line of storms compared to more isolated hailers. Clouds look to be breaking up a bit behind the complex, so hopefully we can get some new development later today/this evening.

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