Hoosier Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Well today's models were quite interesting... I give this about a 5% chance of happening, this morning I told a co-worker 1% however 2 other different models have shown something similar so I have to bump it up to 5%. So you're telling me there's a chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 While his focus is on the east coast, DT has a nice audio discussion along with maps on the possible solutions. (Even if you skip the audio commentary, he has some accompanying maps which are nice.) http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/10/this-week-in-weather-sunday-102112/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Was i out of line posting that latest map I posted on here, given the fear of hyping? Extreme runs are fun to look at. We're a week out, which is a little better than being 12 days out, but still a long time to go. Anyone who has been at this a while should know to put these runs in perspective. As far as hype, it's already started based on what I'm reading. I thought this was funny... Wxrisk.com PEASE GET OFF THE WEB SITE.. soo many of you are on the web site you have crashed the server and I cannot update the web page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Extreme runs are fun to look at. We're a week out, which is a little better than being 12 days out, but still a long time to go. Anyone who has been at this a while should know to put these runs in perspective. As far as hype, it's already started based on what I'm reading. I thought this was funny... Wxrisk.com PEASE GET OFF THE WEB SITE.. soo many of you are on the web site you have crashed the server and I cannot update the web page His "this week in weather" audio presentation tonight was essentially saying that if the rex block plays out in the Atlantic as shown that "Sandy" will be a "mess" for the east coast so it's not surprising he is getting swamped. He also mentioned snow on the west side. I feel like two or three years ago this would not quite be getting the hype it is (on a Sunday no less). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 00Z GFS=Blah for Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I see somewhat of a weak wave on Saturday on the 0z GFS. Still about 6 days away - a lot can change. After a day of easterly winds only made it up to 59° - very nice day though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Weenie solution alive and well on the 00z GGEM. 959 mb near YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 That all? Indeed. If this thing can't beat out the Octobomb and get down into the lower 950s I won't even bother paying any attention to it. New storms firing in southwest Iowa. Looks like these will really take off over the next several hours. Could be some hail potential with these. These should move up and impact our area by daybreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Still a small chance at some interesting storms late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening according to the NAM. Some of the soundings/hodos look decent in the area where storms could develop. The 4km NAM and the RGEM also develop convection in the vicinity as well. Definitely a marginal event, as the setup remains fairly conditional due to potential lingering clouds/elevated convection. Chances are nothing will happen, but it's worth watching I guess. EDIT: This is concerning eastern Iowa/northeast Missouri/western Illinois. Sounding/hodo is for the area just northeast of Kirksville MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Unreal........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Lol I am sure that is going to happen right guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Stebo - A storm like that would sure be fun to track! Would somewhat make up for this boring weather stretch we've been in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Stebo - A storm like that would sure be fun to track! Would somewhat make up for this boring weather stretch we've been in! Hurricane force winds or bust. Mark it down right now! j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro don't look like it is backing off on the overtly amplified solution either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro don't look like it is backing off on the overtly amplified solution either. Handles the incoming trough a bit differently but storm still hooking NW toward the coast by 192 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Handles the incoming trough a bit differently but storm still hooking NW toward the coast by 192 hours. Yep it goes NW from there too, around 966mb in NW PA. Really an incredible solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yep it goes NW from there too, around 966mb in NW PA. Really an incredible solution. Amazing to see how much this thing retrogrades on some of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Amazing to see how much this thing retrogrades on some of the models. Yeah, based upon the trough orientation/amplification though, it is a correct solution based upon the evolution of the model. Whether or not it ends up verifying is a completely different discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Holy cow....check out the winds ...kinda scary... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yeah, based upon the trough orientation/amplification though, it is a correct solution based upon the evolution of the model. Whether or not it ends up verifying is a completely different discussion. Small area of 500 mb heights of 516 dm over PA at 216 hours on that run. That is almost unfathomable for late October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Small area of 500 mb heights of 516 dm over PA at 216 hours on that run. That is almost unfathomable for late October. Yeah hell that is pretty damn good for any storm in the dead of winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Holy cow....check out the winds ...kinda scary... Link? Unless you are talking the 850mb winds on the instantweathermaps site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Ohio could be in the dark on November 6th, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 That is one of the, if not the most insane Euro verbatim I have ever seen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 First Snow pops in 7 day NWS forecast!!!! :thumbsup: Saturday: A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 20%. MKE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY...AND NO PRECIPITATION GENERATED DUE TO EFFECTS OF MID-LEVEL DRY-SLOTING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM COLORADO EAST-NORTHEAST TO WISCONSIN. MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH ENERGY AND MOISTURE AND GENERATES PRECIPITATION FOR MY COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ECMWF IS WEAKER AND DRY. WILL CHANCE THE PRECIPITATION...AND IT COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX GIVEN COLDER TEMPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Small area of 500 mb heights of 516 dm over PA at 216 hours on that run. That is almost unfathomable for late October. Christ, -494 dm anomaly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 That is one of the, if not the most insane Euro verbatim I have ever seen... Been watching models for well over a decade...some of the solutions being shown are definitely among the craziest I can remember. That 516 dm in PA has to be at least 6 or 7 standard deviations below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Been watching models for well over a decade...some of the solutions being shown are definitely among the craziest I can remember. That 516 dm in PA has to be at least 6 or 7 standard deviations below average. Needless to say might be some interesting AFDs for the days to come if this continues to be modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 First Snow pops in 7 day NWS forecast!!!! :thumbsup: Saturday: A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 20%. MKE DTX added Rain/snow mix for Saturday night, first time this fall snow was added to the zones. Saturday Night A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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