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October 2012 General Discussion


Powerball

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Was i out of line posting that latest map I posted on here, given the fear of hyping?

Extreme runs are fun to look at. We're a week out, which is a little better than being 12 days out, but still a long time to go. Anyone who has been at this a while should know to put these runs in perspective.

As far as hype, it's already started based on what I'm reading. I thought this was funny...

Wxrisk.com

PEASE GET OFF THE WEB SITE..

soo many of you are on the web site you have crashed the server and I cannot update the web page

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Extreme runs are fun to look at. We're a week out, which is a little better than being 12 days out, but still a long time to go. Anyone who has been at this a while should know to put these runs in perspective.

As far as hype, it's already started based on what I'm reading. I thought this was funny...

Wxrisk.com

PEASE GET OFF THE WEB SITE..

soo many of you are on the web site you have crashed the server and I cannot update the web page

His "this week in weather" audio presentation tonight was essentially saying that if the rex block plays out in the Atlantic as shown that "Sandy" will be a "mess" for the east coast so it's not surprising he is getting swamped. He also mentioned snow on the west side. I feel like two or three years ago this would not quite be getting the hype it is (on a Sunday no less).

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That all?

Indeed. If this thing can't beat out the Octobomb and get down into the lower 950s I won't even bother paying any attention to it.

:tomato:

New storms firing in southwest Iowa. Looks like these will really take off over the next several hours. Could be some hail potential with these. These should move up and impact our area by daybreak.

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Still a small chance at some interesting storms late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening according to the NAM. Some of the soundings/hodos look decent in the area where storms could develop. The 4km NAM and the RGEM also develop convection in the vicinity as well. Definitely a marginal event, as the setup remains fairly conditional due to potential lingering clouds/elevated convection. Chances are nothing will happen, but it's worth watching I guess.

EDIT: This is concerning eastern Iowa/northeast Missouri/western Illinois. Sounding/hodo is for the area just northeast of Kirksville MO.

NAM_218_2012102200_F24_40.5000N_92.0000W.png

NAM_218_2012102200_F24_40.5000N_92.0000W_HODO_SM.png

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Amazing to see how much this thing retrogrades on some of the models.

Yeah, based upon the trough orientation/amplification though, it is a correct solution based upon the evolution of the model. Whether or not it ends up verifying is a completely different discussion.

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Yeah, based upon the trough orientation/amplification though, it is a correct solution based upon the evolution of the model. Whether or not it ends up verifying is a completely different discussion.

Small area of 500 mb heights of 516 dm over PA at 216 hours on that run. That is almost unfathomable for late October.

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First Snow pops in 7 day NWS forecast!!!! :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

Saturday: A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

MKE

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO

WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY...AND NO PRECIPITATION GENERATED DUE TO EFFECTS

OF MID-LEVEL DRY-SLOTING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF GREAT

LAKES. HOWEVER...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER

SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM COLORADO EAST-NORTHEAST TO WISCONSIN.

MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH ENERGY AND

MOISTURE AND GENERATES PRECIPITATION FOR MY COUNTY WARNING AREA

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ECMWF IS WEAKER AND DRY. WILL CHANCE THE

PRECIPITATION...AND IT COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX GIVEN COLDER TEMPS.

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That is one of the, if not the most insane Euro verbatim I have ever seen...

Been watching models for well over a decade...some of the solutions being shown are definitely among the craziest I can remember.

That 516 dm in PA has to be at least 6 or 7 standard deviations below average.

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Been watching models for well over a decade...some of the solutions being shown are definitely among the craziest I can remember.

That 516 dm in PA has to be at least 6 or 7 standard deviations below average.

Needless to say might be some interesting AFDs for the days to come if this continues to be modeled.

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First Snow pops in 7 day NWS forecast!!!! :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

Saturday: A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

MKE

DTX added Rain/snow mix for Saturday night, first time this fall snow was added to the zones.

Saturday Night A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36.

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