PatrickSumner Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I will **** in my pants if anything close to the EURO or GGEM happens. What does the EURO/GGEM show for Northeast Indiana? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Definitely huge potential with this thing, but with the tropics involved the evolution of this system is gonna be a b**ch to pin down. Hope these trends continue as this setup could produce a big one obviously, but this is still sort of out in fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 What does the EURO/GGEM show for Northeast Indiana? Current runs look very good if you're a snow lover. But I don't want to get too excited or caught up in the specifics this far out though. Getting a perfectly phased system alone is hard enough, that goes double for one along the spine of the Appalachians. Also, FWIW, with these type of systems you don't need uber-cold profiles for snow to reach the ground, given the very cold air that will be in place aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Yeah, lots to figure out. The potential tropical interaction sure won't help matters. It will be fun to watch the buzz in the community. With the explosion of social media, if anything resembling some of the recent runs continues to be shown, this has a chance to be one of the most hyped storms ever. This! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I will say, with the amount of blocking being persistently shown, there is the potential for something in the eastern US in a week or so. The tropical interaction just pushes the "potential" of the possible event from "decent" to "insane." There's no doubt we finally have a fantasy system to track. And again, look at this blocking the Euro shows in a week: (500mb height anomalies of close to 500m over Alaska!) Edit: That's a 429m height anomaly over AK...not 479...evidently I'm desperate for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I will say, with the amount of blocking being persistently shown, there is the potential for something in the eastern US in a week or so. The tropical interaction just pushes the "potential" of the possible event from "decent" to "insane." There's no doubt we finally have a fantasy system to track. And again, look at this blocking the Euro shows in a week: (500mb height anomalies of close to 500m over Alaska!) Edit: That's a 429m height anomaly over AK...not 479...evidently I'm desperate for something. Yep, there will likely be something, we just don't know what it will look like. The timing/depth of that trough coming eastward is key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Loving the look of the Euro...definite winter coat weather a week from now. Should wipe out all vegetation in the midwest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 The NAM as the tropical storm far south(runs away!!!). Probably a good thing. Would hate to see the NAM amongst the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Yep, there will likely be something, we just don't know what it will look like. The timing/depth of that trough coming eastward is key. I agree. It wouldn't surprise me a whole lot if the models become a little less amplified with the western trough than what they show now as we come into a closer time range. The amount of blocking consistently shown is eye-opening though. What 99L in the Caribbean does is also a wild card...the GFS/Euro/Canadian all show some decent development of that system in a few days and that seems to be a key piece to the bomb being shown on those models. Tropical cyclone forecasts more than a few days out tend to be shaky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Izzi talking up the warmth for this week. There's an outside shot to finally reach the 80+ record (2 days needed)...probaby will be just shy though. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS REALLY THROW A WRENCH IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS WEEK...SHOULD WE GET SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS THEN HIGHS TUES/WED MAY "ONLY" GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...CONVERSELY SHOULD SUNSHINE BE MORE PREVALENT THEN HIGHS COULD APPROACH OR EVEN BREAK THE 80 DEGREE MARK. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WE WILL SEE LOW TEMPS BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND ACTUALLY COULD EVEN APPROACH RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DAYS THIS WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I agree. It wouldn't surprise me a whole lot if the models become a little less amplified with the western trough than what they show now as we come into a closer time range. The amount of blocking consistently shown is eye-opening though. What 99L in the Caribbean does is also a wild card...the GFS/Euro/Canadian all show some decent development of that system in a few days and that seems to be a key piece to the bomb being shown on those models. Tropical cyclone forecasts more than a few days out tend to be shaky. Whatever happens, this is pretty exciting stuff to follow...definitely high in the "cool factor." There's a lot that has to go right for the crazy scenario to come to pass...for starters, we are battling climo as most Atlantic landfalling systems do not have much impact so far west. But with the amount of blocking being shown it at least opens up the possibility of this not being able to escape east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Whatever happens, this is pretty exciting stuff to follow...definitely high in the "cool factor." There's a lot that has to go right for the crazy scenario to come to pass...for starters, we are battling climo as most Atlantic landfalling systems do not have much impact so far west. But with the amount of blocking being shown it at least opens up the possibility of this not being able to escape east. The sense I'm getting from reading mets in other subforums is reserved excitement. What we are seeing modeled is about the most interesting stuff I've ever seen modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 The sense I'm getting from reading mets in other subforums is reserved excitement. What we are seeing modeled is about the most interesting stuff I've ever seen modeled. From NE subforum.. What is being depicted by this GGEM and GFS, individually, and in blend, are/is pushing the upper bounds of what can happen on this planet. Earth only rotates so fast. The temperature variation involved in the baroclinicity, and prior to the introduction of the Tropics combined can only express so much power - beyond which is simply not available to Terran physics. #71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 From NE subforum.. [/background][/size][/font][/color] #71 Lol @ quoting typhoon tip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Lol @ quoting typhoon tip This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Lol @ quoting typhoon tip Idc. This is one awesome looking fantasy storm. Tip's post shows just how monstrous this storm as modeled as of now is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Idc. This one awesome looking fantasy storm. Tip's post shows just how monstrous this storm as modeled as of now is.. His posts are always like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Looks like the low retrogrades west off of the E-coast... weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Maybe someone with good knowledge of past events can answer this, but I know of no prior event in this part of the country like what the 12z Euro/00z GGEM and some other runs have been implying. Specifically talking about a non-tropical system that phases with a tropical one and results in some hybrid bomb freakshow with snow. I know it's happened elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 From NE subforum.. [/background][/size][/font][/color]#71 LOL, that's just ridiculous. Tropical cyclones interact with the mid-latitudes all the time, it's just this one is projected to be near the east coast when it does it. Let's not forget that this hasn't even developed yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Maybe someone with good knowledge of past events can answer this, but I know of no prior event in this part of the country like what the 12z Euro/00z GGEM and some other runs have been implying. Specifically talking about a non-tropical system that phases with a tropical one and results in some hybrid bomb freakshow with snow. I know it's happened elsewhere. Tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition often attain mid-latitude cyclone characteristics like a cold front and warm front. In hurricane Wilma we had a cold front right after the backside of the eyewall came through, 20 °F temperature drops in a few hours. Wilma is also a good case of a TC interacting with a mid-latitude trough and intensifying, much like what the GFS is showing now. At the same time we gotta remember the core of the TC will be shredded apart as it undergoes transition, so it won't be a hurricane anymore once it starts getting fronts (which are inherently associated with wind shear due to the thermal wind relation), just a broad gale center. I don't think it's going to be cold enough to snow anywhere near the transitioning TC, boundary layer is going to be quite warm. If this even happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition often attain mid-latitude cyclone characteristics like a cold front and warm front. In hurricane Wilma we had a cold front right after the backside of the eyewall came through, 20 °F temperature drops in a few hours. Wilma is also a good case of a TC interacting with a mid-latitude trough and intensifying, much like what the GFS is showing now. At the same time we gotta remember the core of the TC will be shredded apart as it undergoes transition, so it won't be a hurricane anymore once it starts getting fronts (which are inherently associated with wind shear due to the thermal wind relation), just a broad gale center. I don't think it's going to be cold enough to snow anywhere near the transitioning TC, boundary layer is going to be quite warm. If this even happens. I know all that, but my point is when is the last time have we seen something like this in this part of the country (if by some crazy chance it happens)? There's usually not enough cold air around to even entertain the possibility of snow in post ET transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 Maybe someone with good knowledge of past events can answer this, but I know of no prior event in this part of the country like what the 12z Euro/00z GGEM and some other runs have been implying. Specifically talking about a non-tropical system that phases with a tropical one and results in some hybrid bomb freakshow with snow. I know it's happened elsewhere. November 1950 was close, but of course it took place nearly one month later. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Appalachian_Storm_of_November_1950 Otherwise, I don't recall a system like this in recent history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Well today's models were quite interesting... I give this about a 5% chance of happening, this morning I told a co-worker 1% however 2 other different models have shown something similar so I have to bump it up to 5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Well today's models were quite interesting... I give this about a 5% chance of happening, this morning I told a co-worker 1% however 2 other different models have shown something similar so I have to bump it up to 5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 12z European wanting to put a whopper of a storm on the East Coast next weekend. The GFS not as bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I'm not even going to venture over to the EC subforums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW Storm Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I'm not even going to venture over to the EC subforums. Will be interesting to see what develops. 99L forecast this far out could get some too worked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I'm not even going to venture over to the EC subforums. NE guys gotta a decent handle on it..at least for now they haven't completely lost it. There is some fear about the GOA Vort showing up in the Ensambles yet again. Disheartening to many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Was i out of line posting that latest map I posted on here, given the fear of hyping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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