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October 2012 General Discussion


Powerball

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What does the EURO/GGEM show for Northeast Indiana?

Current runs look very good if you're a snow lover.

But I don't want to get too excited or caught up in the specifics this far out though. Getting a perfectly phased system alone is hard enough, that goes double for one along the spine of the Appalachians.

Also, FWIW, with these type of systems you don't need uber-cold profiles for snow to reach the ground, given the very cold air that will be in place aloft.

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Yeah, lots to figure out. The potential tropical interaction sure won't help matters.

It will be fun to watch the buzz in the community. With the explosion of social media, if anything resembling some of the recent runs continues to be shown, this has a chance to be one of the most hyped storms ever.

This!

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I will say, with the amount of blocking being persistently shown, there is the potential for something in the eastern US in a week or so. The tropical interaction just pushes the "potential" of the possible event from "decent" to "insane." There's no doubt we finally have a fantasy system to track. And again, look at this blocking the Euro shows in a week:

post-525-0-15773800-1350850425_thumb.gif

(500mb height anomalies of close to 500m over Alaska!)

Edit: That's a 429m height anomaly over AK...not 479...evidently I'm desperate for something.

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I will say, with the amount of blocking being persistently shown, there is the potential for something in the eastern US in a week or so. The tropical interaction just pushes the "potential" of the possible event from "decent" to "insane." There's no doubt we finally have a fantasy system to track. And again, look at this blocking the Euro shows in a week:

post-525-0-15773800-1350850425_thumb.gif

(500mb height anomalies of close to 500m over Alaska!)

Edit: That's a 429m height anomaly over AK...not 479...evidently I'm desperate for something.

Yep, there will likely be something, we just don't know what it will look like.

The timing/depth of that trough coming eastward is key.

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Yep, there will likely be something, we just don't know what it will look like.

The timing/depth of that trough coming eastward is key.

I agree. It wouldn't surprise me a whole lot if the models become a little less amplified with the western trough than what they show now as we come into a closer time range. The amount of blocking consistently shown is eye-opening though.

What 99L in the Caribbean does is also a wild card...the GFS/Euro/Canadian all show some decent development of that system in a few days and that seems to be a key piece to the bomb being shown on those models. Tropical cyclone forecasts more than a few days out tend to be shaky.

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Izzi talking up the warmth for this week. There's an outside shot to finally reach the 80+ record (2 days needed)...probaby will be just shy though.

THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS REALLY

THROW A WRENCH IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS WEEK...SHOULD WE GET

SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS THEN HIGHS TUES/WED MAY "ONLY" GET INTO THE

LOW TO MID 70S...CONVERSELY SHOULD SUNSHINE BE MORE PREVALENT THEN

HIGHS COULD APPROACH OR EVEN BREAK THE 80 DEGREE MARK. WITH

DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WE WILL SEE LOW TEMPS BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND

ACTUALLY COULD EVEN APPROACH RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DAYS

THIS WEEK.

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I agree. It wouldn't surprise me a whole lot if the models become a little less amplified with the western trough than what they show now as we come into a closer time range. The amount of blocking consistently shown is eye-opening though.

What 99L in the Caribbean does is also a wild card...the GFS/Euro/Canadian all show some decent development of that system in a few days and that seems to be a key piece to the bomb being shown on those models. Tropical cyclone forecasts more than a few days out tend to be shaky.

Whatever happens, this is pretty exciting stuff to follow...definitely high in the "cool factor." There's a lot that has to go right for the crazy scenario to come to pass...for starters, we are battling climo as most Atlantic landfalling systems do not have much impact so far west. But with the amount of blocking being shown it at least opens up the possibility of this not being able to escape east.

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Whatever happens, this is pretty exciting stuff to follow...definitely high in the "cool factor." There's a lot that has to go right for the crazy scenario to come to pass...for starters, we are battling climo as most Atlantic landfalling systems do not have much impact so far west. But with the amount of blocking being shown it at least opens up the possibility of this not being able to escape east.

The sense I'm getting from reading mets in other subforums is reserved excitement. What we are seeing modeled is about the most interesting stuff I've ever seen modeled.

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The sense I'm getting from reading mets in other subforums is reserved excitement. What we are seeing modeled is about the most interesting stuff I've ever seen modeled.

From NE subforum..

What is being depicted by this GGEM and GFS, individually, and in blend, are/is pushing the upper bounds of what can happen on this planet. Earth only rotates so fast. The temperature variation involved in the baroclinicity, and prior to the introduction of the Tropics combined can only express so much power - beyond which is simply not available to Terran physics.

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Maybe someone with good knowledge of past events can answer this, but I know of no prior event in this part of the country like what the 12z Euro/00z GGEM and some other runs have been implying. Specifically talking about a non-tropical system that phases with a tropical one and results in some hybrid bomb freakshow with snow. I know it's happened elsewhere.

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Maybe someone with good knowledge of past events can answer this, but I know of no prior event in this part of the country like what the 12z Euro/00z GGEM and some other runs have been implying. Specifically talking about a non-tropical system that phases with a tropical one and results in some hybrid bomb freakshow with snow. I know it's happened elsewhere.

Tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition often attain mid-latitude cyclone characteristics like a cold front and warm front. In hurricane Wilma we had a cold front right after the backside of the eyewall came through, 20 °F temperature drops in a few hours. Wilma is also a good case of a TC interacting with a mid-latitude trough and intensifying, much like what the GFS is showing now. At the same time we gotta remember the core of the TC will be shredded apart as it undergoes transition, so it won't be a hurricane anymore once it starts getting fronts (which are inherently associated with wind shear due to the thermal wind relation), just a broad gale center.

I don't think it's going to be cold enough to snow anywhere near the transitioning TC, boundary layer is going to be quite warm. If this even happens.

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Tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition often attain mid-latitude cyclone characteristics like a cold front and warm front. In hurricane Wilma we had a cold front right after the backside of the eyewall came through, 20 °F temperature drops in a few hours. Wilma is also a good case of a TC interacting with a mid-latitude trough and intensifying, much like what the GFS is showing now. At the same time we gotta remember the core of the TC will be shredded apart as it undergoes transition, so it won't be a hurricane anymore once it starts getting fronts (which are inherently associated with wind shear due to the thermal wind relation), just a broad gale center.

I don't think it's going to be cold enough to snow anywhere near the transitioning TC, boundary layer is going to be quite warm. If this even happens.

I know all that, but my point is when is the last time have we seen something like this in this part of the country (if by some crazy chance it happens)? There's usually not enough cold air around to even entertain the possibility of snow in post ET transition.

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Maybe someone with good knowledge of past events can answer this, but I know of no prior event in this part of the country like what the 12z Euro/00z GGEM and some other runs have been implying. Specifically talking about a non-tropical system that phases with a tropical one and results in some hybrid bomb freakshow with snow. I know it's happened elsewhere.

November 1950 was close, but of course it took place nearly one month later.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Appalachian_Storm_of_November_1950

Otherwise, I don't recall a system like this in recent history.

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