andyhb Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 The tropical system is way farther west on the 00z Euro. Not sure what will happen with it though...might end up going harmlessly out to sea. Looks like it is trying to phase at 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Just woke up, perfect timing for the Orionid meteor shower. 37 °F with calm winds and clear skies, good viewing weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0358 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012 VALID 241200Z - 291200Z ..DISCUSSION IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...00Z ECMWF/GEFS/UKMET IMPLY THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A SUBSTANTIAL LEAD PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS/CANADA BETWEEN DAYS 4-6 WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS THIS UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT ENCOUNTER A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS FOR AUTUMN...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE TSTMS ARE PROBABLE ON DAYS 4-5 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. INITIALLY...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SEVERE RISK COULD SPREAD EASTWARD/POSSIBLY BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD INTO DAY 5/THURSDAY ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY...PERHAPS AS A FAST-MOVING/LOW-TOPPED SQUALL LINE. WHILE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE TSTMS ARE PROBABLE ON THESE DAYS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...LINGERING GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REGARDING UPPER TROUGH AMPLITUDE/TIMING AND THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE A DELINEATION OF ANY SPECIFIC SEVERE RISK AREAS. ..GUYER.. 10/21/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Saw 7 meteors in about half an hour, no fireballs but still fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Saw 7 meteors in about half an hour, no fireballs but still fun. All I saw was my breath as it is cold outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 All I saw was my breath as it is cold outside Yeah chilly morning, hanging around 35 °F. Nice and sunny though, gonna get into the upper 60s later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Don't forget we have a very toasty week coming up with summer like weather...so might as well enjoy it. Probably be putting the bikes away by next weekend. Turtle- Talked to my brother, he's down in Key Largo going out on a snorkeling boat this afternoon. He is a certified diver who usually dives in Cozumel, so it will be interesting to see how the 2 areas differ... North winds down in S Florida with lower dew points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Wow. The models have backed off big time. the GFS looks way different. Maybe a tropical wrench? Less Phasing? I should have known that was too good to be true. We would of had a couple shots at record lows here with -8 to -10C 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Wow. The models have backed off big time. the GFS looks way different. Maybe a tropical wrench? Less Phasing? I should have known that was too good to be true. We would of had a couple shots at record lows here with -8 to -10C 850s. Because of one run of the op GFS? Come on man, you know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Because of one run of the op GFS? Come on man, you know better. Yeah, lots to figure out. The potential tropical interaction sure won't help matters. It will be fun to watch the buzz in the community. With the explosion of social media, if anything resembling some of the recent runs continues to be shown, this has a chance to be one of the most hyped storms ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Yeah, lots to figure out. The potential tropical interaction sure won't help matters. It will be fun to watch the buzz in the community. With the explosion of social media, if anything resembling some of the recent runs continues to be shown, this has a chance to be one of the most hyped storms ever. Anything that sniffs the NE coast is uber-hyped. But yes, if this continues, it'll be a freak show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Anything that sniffs the NE coast is uber-hyped. But yes, if this continues, it'll be a freak show. 12z Euro came farther west with it again...now about 100 miles east of Florida at 144 hours...in a better position to eventually be caught by the incoming trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 12z Euro definitely a good bit more amplified than previous run in the C US by 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 That Euro is going to be ugly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 12z Euro definitely a good bit more amplified than previous run in the C US by 168 hours. Congrats SW MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 No idea what the low level temps are like but a good shot of cold rain/wet snow on the back side for IN/MI on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 No idea what the low level temps are like but a good shot of cold rain/wet snow on the back side for IN/MI on the 12z Euro. Yeah, looks close. Starting to get interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Damn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 12z Euro definitely a good bit more amplified than previous run in the C US by 168 hours. No doubt. I can only see it through 168 but it looks like it's going to entrain that tropical disturbance off the SE coast, like yesterday's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 So it looks like all the major models now show the potential for a big storm on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 So it looks like all the major models now show the potential for a big storm on the east coast. I'm extrapolating, but the 12z EURO looks like it's going to go nuts with the amplification. Decent chance 192 shows the coastal getting dragged well to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 No doubt. I can only see it through 168 but it looks like it's going to entrain that tropical disturbance off the SE coast, like yesterday's 12z run. I've seen some people comparing this setup to Hazel in 1954. I know that one raked Toronto pretty good but otherwise not sure how valid the comparison is. What say you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I'm extrapolating, but the 12z EURO looks like it's going to go nuts with the amplification. Decent chance 192 shows the coastal getting dragged well to the NW. 972 mb in E PA at 192 hours. Low moves NW after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 MI gets absolutely hammered this run of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I've seen some people comparing this setup to Hazel in 1954. I know that one raked Toronto pretty good but otherwise not sure how valid the comparison is. What say you? Personally, it didn't cross my mind but thinking about it, it's a decent comparison. Moisture from a slow moving extra-tropical system merges with a polar front and creates a swath of excessive rain along the front. I'm trying to find a sfc/500mb map from October 1954 so I can compare more accurately. Here it is: http://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricanes/default.asp?lang=En&n=5C4829A9-1 Often described as a 1/50 year type event. Maybe we're due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Just looked at the EURO. Holy ****. Maybe a heavy rain followed by snow?. Maybe the CMC wasn't on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Because of one run of the op GFS? Come on man, you know better. I was specifically talking about the end of a cold front slamming into the Southern States bringing my area record cold coming to and end. The Euro agrees that is not going to happen. They are adamant about the inclusion of a tropical system. The GFS might be to warm but those super cold runs for the last few days won't be coming back now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Just looked at the EURO. Holy ****. Maybe a heavy rain followed by snow?. Maybe the CMC wasn't on crack. But the 12z GGEM moved away from its storm of the century idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 But the 12z GGEM moved away from its storm of the century idea. It was very close to a full phase, if it did, boom, 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 I will **** in my pants if anything close to the EURO or GGEM happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.