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October 2012 General Discussion


Powerball

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DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0358 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

..DISCUSSION

IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...00Z ECMWF/GEFS/UKMET IMPLY THAT THE

LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF THE WEEK WILL

GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE

WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A SUBSTANTIAL LEAD PORTION OF THIS

TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL

ROCKIES TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS/CANADA BETWEEN DAYS 4-6

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS

THE CENTRAL CONUS.

AS THIS UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT ENCOUNTER A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS

FOR AUTUMN...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE TSTMS ARE PROBABLE ON DAYS 4-5

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. INITIALLY...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS COULD OCCUR

ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST ON DAY

4/WEDNESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SEVERE RISK COULD

SPREAD EASTWARD/POSSIBLY BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD INTO DAY

5/THURSDAY ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY...PERHAPS AS A

FAST-MOVING/LOW-TOPPED SQUALL LINE. WHILE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE TSTMS

ARE PROBABLE ON THESE DAYS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT

INSTABILITY...LINGERING GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REGARDING UPPER TROUGH

AMPLITUDE/TIMING AND THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE A

DELINEATION OF ANY SPECIFIC SEVERE RISK AREAS.

..GUYER.. 10/21/2012

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Don't forget we have a very toasty week coming up with summer like weather...so might as well enjoy it. Probably be putting the bikes away by next weekend.

Turtle-

Talked to my brother, he's down in Key Largo going out on a snorkeling boat this afternoon. He is a certified diver who usually dives in Cozumel, so it will be interesting to see how the 2 areas differ... North winds down in S Florida with lower dew points.

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Wow.

The models have backed off big time.

the GFS looks way different. Maybe a tropical wrench? Less Phasing?

I should have known that was too good to be true.

We would of had a couple shots at record lows here with -8 to -10C 850s.

Because of one run of the op GFS? Come on man, you know better.

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Because of one run of the op GFS? Come on man, you know better.

Yeah, lots to figure out. The potential tropical interaction sure won't help matters.

It will be fun to watch the buzz in the community. With the explosion of social media, if anything resembling some of the recent runs continues to be shown, this has a chance to be one of the most hyped storms ever.

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Yeah, lots to figure out. The potential tropical interaction sure won't help matters.

It will be fun to watch the buzz in the community. With the explosion of social media, if anything resembling some of the recent runs continues to be shown, this has a chance to be one of the most hyped storms ever.

Anything that sniffs the NE coast is uber-hyped. But yes, if this continues, it'll be a freak show.

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Anything that sniffs the NE coast is uber-hyped. But yes, if this continues, it'll be a freak show.

12z Euro came farther west with it again...now about 100 miles east of Florida at 144 hours...in a better position to eventually be caught by the incoming trough.

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No doubt. I can only see it through 168 but it looks like it's going to entrain that tropical disturbance off the SE coast, like yesterday's 12z run.

I've seen some people comparing this setup to Hazel in 1954. I know that one raked Toronto pretty good but otherwise not sure how valid the comparison is. What say you?

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I've seen some people comparing this setup to Hazel in 1954. I know that one raked Toronto pretty good but otherwise not sure how valid the comparison is. What say you?

Personally, it didn't cross my mind but thinking about it, it's a decent comparison. Moisture from a slow moving extra-tropical system merges with a polar front and creates a swath of excessive rain along the front. I'm trying to find a sfc/500mb map from October 1954 so I can compare more accurately.

Here it is:

http://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricanes/default.asp?lang=En&n=5C4829A9-1

Often described as a 1/50 year type event. Maybe we're due.

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Because of one run of the op GFS? Come on man, you know better.

I was specifically talking about the end of a cold front slamming into the Southern States bringing my area record cold coming to and end.

The Euro agrees that is not going to happen.

They are adamant about the inclusion of a tropical system. The GFS might be to warm but those super cold runs for the last few days won't be coming back now.

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