Hoosier Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 The 12z Euro will be tempting for MI/OH weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Clouds have reappeared after sunny morning skies. About 58°. Would be nice to see snowflakes this month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 The 12z Euro will be tempting for MI/OH weenies. Looks as if it caved to the GFS regarding amplification a bit. Edit: As did the GGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 The 12z Euro will be tempting for MI/OH weenies. It's not even November and that beats any fantasy storm from last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Bring on the northwest trend!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Somewhat conditional severe threat for Iowa on Monday. NAM forecasts dews rising to above 60 with a surface low moving through the state later in the day. Forecasts cape values to between 1000-2000j/kg. Lingering morning elevated convection and associated cloud cover may put a dent in destabilization in the afternoon though. Forecast soundings/hodos look somewhat interesting, but sort of lacking in the mid-upper levels. If instability pans out and a surface-based storm can ignite it may do okay in this environment. Something to watch anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Somewhat conditional severe threat for Iowa on Monday. NAM forecasts dews rising to above 60 with a surface low moving through the state later in the day. Forecasts cape values to between 1000-2000j/kg. Lingering morning elevated convection and associated cloud cover may put a dent in destabilization in the afternoon though. Forecast soundings/hodos look somewhat interesting, but sort of lacking in the mid-upper levels. If instability pans out and a surface-based storm can ignite it may do okay in this environment. Something to watch anyway. Seems like there is a bit of a disconnect between the best instability and best low level flow/shear, at least on the NAM. One thing is for sure...moisture is not bad for latter October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 FWIW, SPC MARS has been consistently progging June 7th-8th, 1984 as a strong 500 mb analog for the GFS side of things, although obviously that won't have the thermos to match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW Storm Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Nice way to finish out October, take advantage of this week. Highs in the lower 70s I'd take anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Downright impressive cold on the 18Z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 FWIW, SPC MARS has been consistently progging June 7th-8th, 1984 as a strong 500 mb analog for the GFS side of things, although obviously that won't have the thermos to match. Day of the Barneveld F5 for anyone who didn't know. Yeah, the results of this one might come up just a bit short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Downright impressive cold on the 18Z GFS... Differences in how we get there but definitely looking like it's going to get pretty cool for late October/early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Loving it... this one is for Saukville: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Hi temps from NWS Weds: 74F Sat: 44F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Only out to 138 so far, but the 0z GFS looks to be developing a low in the Colorado/Nebraska region right along the edge of the trough, looks like the cold front is slowing down at that point as well. It will be interesting to see what the rest of the run shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 The 00z GGEM is a near apocalypse...955 mb over DC with a 1034 mb high in the northern Plains at 192 hours lol. Probably a huge wind machine. Could be fun to watch the models try to handle the mid latitude features in combination with this TC or hybrid system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Sorry, I gotta post this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Lock in the track on the 0z GFS from 150-168 hours in DJF please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Sorry, I gotta post this High wind warnings galore. 954 via these maps BTW: http://meteocentre.c...hh2=180&fixhh=1 Storm ends up moving northwest from DC to south of YYZ, still sub 980. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 GFS says hi temps don't make it out of the 30Fs next Sun/Mon here...woohoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 March 1993 anybody...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 GFS says hi temps don't make it out of the 30Fs next Sun/Mon here...woohoo! Trick or treat is looking more wintry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Wow! Two years ago we had Octobomb, last year the Northeast's late October snowstorm, and this year we're looking at a potential crazy winter storm/tropical storm hybrid in the Northeastern quarter/third of the country? So much for my original belief that October was a boring weather month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 THE 12Z ECMWF MEAN SUGGESTS THE 12Z ECMWF MAY BECOME TOO FLAT WITH ITS TROF BUT THE UKMET IS AT LEAST AS FLAT OVER SOME AREAS BY F84. IN SPITE OF THE UKMET BY F84... STILL PREFER TO LEAN AWAY FROM THE 12Z ECMWF FROM TUE ONWARD AS UPSTREAM FLOW STILL DIFFERS FROM MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SOMEWHAT. WITH SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENCE IN AN OPERATIONAL CONSENSUS VERSUS THE OLDER ENSEMBLE MEANS... WILL RECOMMEND A GFS/18Z GEFS MEAN COMPROMISE 2/3 TOWARD THE GFS FOR TUE-WED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 00z Euro much stronger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Aghhhh, the first storm of the season... This ones gonna be fun guys, enjoy the ride!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 The EURO caves some more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 High wind warnings galore. 954 via these maps BTW: http://meteocentre.c...hh2=180&fixhh=1 Storm ends up moving northwest from DC to south of YYZ, still sub 980. Impressive. FWIW (next to nothing at this point), the GGEM precip type plots do attempt a changeover to snow on the backside. This type of evolution is pretty hard to swallow but if there's actually a tropical or hybrid cyclone lurking near the southeastern US and a deep enough trough coming in from the west, hey, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Wow! get home and see model madness. This week should be pretty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 The tropical system is way farther west on the 00z Euro. Not sure what will happen with it though...might end up going harmlessly out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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