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October 2012 General Discussion


Powerball

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Euro completely different from other models, flat pattern, with the amount of energy crashing into the Pacific NW I would have a hard time believing a flat pattern.

GFS has us near the polar jet out to 180+ hours, gonna be some interesting weather at least. http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/wxp_images/gfs104_00UTC/gblav104_c300_flash.html

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From LMK: By late week the surface high to our southeast will give way as a

deamplifying upper trof sweeps a weakening cold front in from the

Plains. The GFS continues to be an outlier with a much stronger and

slower solution compared to ECMWF/GEM Ensemble Mean/GEFS, so will

lean more toward the ensembles and EC. So, going the quicker,

weaker track, will bring very small PoPs into the northwest Thursday

afternoon and then throughout the area Thursday night into Friday.

Even on the more robust GFS thunder looks unlikely, and rainfall

amounts will be small.

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Prob didn't want the euro to now go bonkers and really smoosh that TC. first freeze and smell of wood burning stoves cancel.. at least the north is chilly and its probably not a bad thing to blow our cold wad down south too early. Not good to already be in 00z Euro winter long range weenie model mode but it happens every oct looking for that elusive cold to finally show up in nov for hunting.

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Prob didn't want the euro to now go bonkers and really smoosh that TC. first freeze and smell of wood burning stoves cancel.. at least the north is chilly and its probably not a bad thing to blow our cold wad down south too early. Not good to already be in 00z Euro winter long range weenie model mode but it happens every oct looking for that elusive cold to finally show up in nov for hunting.

TC? What are you referencing here?

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DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0351 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...

00Z ECMWF/GEFS/UKMET IMPLY THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE

MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONGWAVE

TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT

DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN /00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS

AMPLIFIED VS OTHER GUIDANCE/.

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON DAYS

5-6 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. AS AN UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHIFT EASTWARD

AND ENCOUNTER A RELATIVELY MOIST AUTUMNAL AIRMASS...ORGANIZED SEVERE

TSTMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/MIDDLE MO

VALLEY ON DAY 5/WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS THE UPPER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY

AND LOWER MO VALLEY ON DAY 6/THURSDAY. WHILE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE

TSTMS ARE PROBABLE ON THESE DAYS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT

MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REGARDING UPPER TROUGH

AMPLITUDE/TIMING PRECLUDES A DELINEATION OF ANY SPECIFIC SEVERE RISK

AREAS AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 10/20/2012

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Euro was showing some mess in the long range but has seemed to lose that idea totally the last few runs.

We need something to tug that cold air down don't we?

FloridaVacationSeason.gif

Ah the tropical system, I'd much rather take my chances on a strong trough pulling down the cold air than something riding up the East Coast, plus that tropical system is far from set in stone.

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Oh please snow gods, make hour 180+ on the 6Z GFS a reality.

If this were to happen which it is fantasy land at this point It would still be to warm. Seen this song and dance before this time of year. It would be case on where temps would take to long to fall. Very cold rain temps around 40. Uggg

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If this were to happen which it is fantasy land at this point It would still be to warm. Seen this song and dance before this time of year. It would be case on where temps would take to long to fall. Very cold rain temps around 40. Uggg

Here it would. How about mid Michigan?

EDIT:

Discussing specifics on a system that probably won't happen is somewhat of a waste of time.

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lol at the 06z GFS.

Lately we seem to always get that same low track around this time of year, such as in 2008 and 2009 (late October/early November), yet that low track is nowhere to be found in the dead of winter. The outcomes usually is upper 30s and light stratiform rain.

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lol at the 06z GFS.

Lately we seem to always get that same low track around this time of year, such as in 2008 and 2009 (late October/early November), yet that low track is nowhere to be found in the dead of winter. The outcomes usually is upper 30s and light stratiform rain.

That's what I was thinking we always get a dream setup in April or November it seems like. I specifically remember the one from last year and the one from 2008.

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Some of those ensembles look sexy if only they would occur at night, which some of it would. Too bad it probably will not verify. I'll settle for expecting something in between the teasing Euro and the sexy GFS.

Yeah they sure are. Unless this thing really bombs out, I'd rather have this set up another month or so from now. The lake would ruin any chance at snow.

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Yeah they sure are. Unless this thing really bombs out, I'd rather have this set up another month or so from now. The lake would ruin any chance at snow.

That's true, but since it looks to occur on a Friday night or over the weekend if it happens, you could just drive or even take public transportation inland if it ever came to pass.

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