Minnesota Meso Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 I know it's not in this forum, but look at the east coast from the latest GEM. Of course one of the problems with this model, when it wiff's a cane it develops it...wouldn't trust that any more than I could trust myself to tackle Adrain Perterson of the Vikings. http://meteocentre.c...PN_192_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Models have been advertising a powerful Arctic Dipole Anomaly. Huge ridge over Alaska and another huge ridge over NW Atlantic/Greenland. Basically the arctic will dumb cold as wide open as possible into the mid latitudes. With the super torch in the NW Atlantic. I would expect good blocking for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 lol, that GGEM is awesome. Change that setup a bit and we could have the Gulf snowcane I've dreamed about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 lol, that GGEM is awesome. Change that setup a bit and we could have the Gulf snowcane I've dreamed about. Least believable evolution of the pattern. GGEM is just being laughable now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Euro completely different from other models, flat pattern, with the amount of energy crashing into the Pacific NW I would have a hard time believing a flat pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Euro completely different from other models, flat pattern, with the amount of energy crashing into the Pacific NW I would have a hard time believing a flat pattern. GFS has us near the polar jet out to 180+ hours, gonna be some interesting weather at least. http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/wxp_images/gfs104_00UTC/gblav104_c300_flash.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 From LMK: By late week the surface high to our southeast will give way as a deamplifying upper trof sweeps a weakening cold front in from the Plains. The GFS continues to be an outlier with a much stronger and slower solution compared to ECMWF/GEM Ensemble Mean/GEFS, so will lean more toward the ensembles and EC. So, going the quicker, weaker track, will bring very small PoPs into the northwest Thursday afternoon and then throughout the area Thursday night into Friday. Even on the more robust GFS thunder looks unlikely, and rainfall amounts will be small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Prob didn't want the euro to now go bonkers and really smoosh that TC. first freeze and smell of wood burning stoves cancel.. at least the north is chilly and its probably not a bad thing to blow our cold wad down south too early. Not good to already be in 00z Euro winter long range weenie model mode but it happens every oct looking for that elusive cold to finally show up in nov for hunting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Prob didn't want the euro to now go bonkers and really smoosh that TC. first freeze and smell of wood burning stoves cancel.. at least the north is chilly and its probably not a bad thing to blow our cold wad down south too early. Not good to already be in 00z Euro winter long range weenie model mode but it happens every oct looking for that elusive cold to finally show up in nov for hunting. TC? What are you referencing here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012 VALID 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... 00Z ECMWF/GEFS/UKMET IMPLY THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN /00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS AMPLIFIED VS OTHER GUIDANCE/. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON DAYS 5-6 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. AS AN UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHIFT EASTWARD AND ENCOUNTER A RELATIVELY MOIST AUTUMNAL AIRMASS...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/MIDDLE MO VALLEY ON DAY 5/WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS THE UPPER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND LOWER MO VALLEY ON DAY 6/THURSDAY. WHILE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE TSTMS ARE PROBABLE ON THESE DAYS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REGARDING UPPER TROUGH AMPLITUDE/TIMING PRECLUDES A DELINEATION OF ANY SPECIFIC SEVERE RISK AREAS AT THIS TIME. ..GUYER.. 10/20/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 06z GFS clearly trolling with what it is showing around 144-180hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 06z GFS clearly trolling with what it is showing around 144-180hr. Beat me to it. saying to myself: It's only October. Repeat 100x. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Beat me to it. saying to myself: It's only October. Repeat 100x. Yeah what has been seen can not be unseen... Although it would be marginal here, the center part of the state however... Naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Some very wintery precip for the World Series. That would be so fitting. Gotta love the 1st fantasy systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 TC? What are you referencing here? Euro was showing some mess in the long range but has seemed to lose that idea totally the last few runs. We need something to tug that cold air down don't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Euro was showing some mess in the long range but has seemed to lose that idea totally the last few runs. We need something to tug that cold air down don't we? Ah the tropical system, I'd much rather take my chances on a strong trough pulling down the cold air than something riding up the East Coast, plus that tropical system is far from set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Oh please snow gods, make hour 180+ on the 6Z GFS a reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Oh please snow gods, make hour 180+ on the 6Z GFS a reality. If this were to happen which it is fantasy land at this point It would still be to warm. Seen this song and dance before this time of year. It would be case on where temps would take to long to fall. Very cold rain temps around 40. Uggg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 If this were to happen which it is fantasy land at this point It would still be to warm. Seen this song and dance before this time of year. It would be case on where temps would take to long to fall. Very cold rain temps around 40. Uggg Here it would. How about mid Michigan? EDIT: Discussing specifics on a system that probably won't happen is somewhat of a waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Here it would. How about mid Michigan? Maybe a coating toward the tail end of the system. Maybe? Doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 lol at the 06z GFS. Lately we seem to always get that same low track around this time of year, such as in 2008 and 2009 (late October/early November), yet that low track is nowhere to be found in the dead of winter. The outcomes usually is upper 30s and light stratiform rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 EDIT: Discussing specifics on a system that probably won't happen is somewhat of a waste of time. Boring last 14 months will do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 lol at the 06z GFS. Lately we seem to always get that same low track around this time of year, such as in 2008 and 2009 (late October/early November), yet that low track is nowhere to be found in the dead of winter. The outcomes usually is upper 30s and light stratiform rain. That's what I was thinking we always get a dream setup in April or November it seems like. I specifically remember the one from last year and the one from 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Bow- I've been smelling wood smoke for a few weeks around here... Lot of wood burners in this area it would seem. Smells really good while out on a run. Massive fog this morning here...mid 30Fs last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Got almost another half inch of rain over the last three days, putting our monthly total at 2.93". This is the first month since April with above average rainfall. Hopefully, we can add to it next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Some of those ensembles look sexy if only they would occur at night, which some of it would. Too bad it probably will not verify. I'll settle for expecting something in between the teasing Euro and the sexy GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Some of those ensembles look sexy if only they would occur at night, which some of it would. Too bad it probably will not verify. I'll settle for expecting something in between the teasing Euro and the sexy GFS. Yeah they sure are. Unless this thing really bombs out, I'd rather have this set up another month or so from now. The lake would ruin any chance at snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Yeah they sure are. Unless this thing really bombs out, I'd rather have this set up another month or so from now. The lake would ruin any chance at snow. That's true, but since it looks to occur on a Friday night or over the weekend if it happens, you could just drive or even take public transportation inland if it ever came to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 12z GGEM still cooking up the east coast megastorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Beautiful day... bluebird skies, mild temps, not much wind... either going hiking or a bike ride... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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