daddylonglegs Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Turtle- My oldest brother lands in Miami this afternoon..thinks he's going to drive his rental (never been to Miami before) from the airport to Key West in 2 hrs!!! I laughed and laughed... GFS says 192-384hr=winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Popcorn showers forming over the area and to the west. There's been some isolated cloud breaks allowing for a minute or two of sun. Hope to see some graupel today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Turtle- My oldest brother lands in Miami this afternoon..thinks he's going to drive his rental (never been to Miami before) from the airport to Key West in 2 hrs!!! I laughed and laughed... GFS says 192-384hr=winter LOL, good luck to him with that. Probably more like 5 or 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 OBSERVATION: Has anyone else noticed how the squirrels have just been """nuts""" the past few weeks? Tonite on the bike ride, they were everywhere..I tried running some over but they were just too fast. They are very fat this year too...very furry. I have no idea what this all means (overpopulation?), but maybe they know that a snowy, cold winter is on its way Very interesting that you bring this up because today they have been all over the place gathering up nuts all over. I have never seen it like this. Yep. Winter is coming quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 GFS says 192-384hr=winter The 12z Euro definitely took a swing in the wintry direction. -12C 850's in the upper midwest in weenie land on the deterministic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I think the GFS is taking the lead as of now although LMK considers the GFS an "outlier." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 above avg lake temps in fall doesn't stress me much anymore. in even a halfassed normal fall or early winter the lake will be down in to the 30's come Christmas time anyways. its all about hoping for a track through illanoy/indiana to southern MI and minimizing the duration of gross se/east winds. LE and the rare LES we get on the west side of LM is better anyways than se michigan's penny fluff that is only good for stat padding. Now put me just NE on the other side of the lake and I could probably stand living in southern mi. Penny fluff? Lol. Tell that to the peeps in Port Huron up to Forestville. Huron can ****ing destroy your town with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Penny fluff? Lol. Tell that to the peeps in Port Huron up to Forestville. Huron can ****ing destroy your town with snow. who was talking about LES from port huron up to forestville you dink? I'll take chicago or mke anyday over detroit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Nice to see the euro go the way of the gfs with the TC. I can already smell the wood stoves and fireplaces stove piping burning wood in to the sky at the end of the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 who was talking about LES from port huron up to forestville you dink? I'll take chicago or mke anyday over detroit south. When was last time Chicago and Milwaukee saw a pure LES event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Looking forward to cold..i've actually enjoyed these past few days with temps mostly in the 40Fs around here... Cleared out this evening for a beautiful sunset. Like to see some snow on Halloween, although with the young kids, that would make it very tough...yet all that candy will rot out their teeth...so let it snow Turtle- Brother only made it to Florida City before calling it a nite. Hot and humid down there.. wet... like Tropical's greenhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 When was last time Chicago and Milwaukee saw a pure LES event? I want to say it was March of 09--only General Mitchell and nearby--and I mean NEARBY areas saw quite a plume. Of course I'm certain I'm way off though. I just remember that because I flew my brother in from ATL to work on a few things with me---dropped him at the airport which I think was on a Monday... and they cancelled all flights. I'm sure someone else can correct me on this though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 When was last time Chicago and Milwaukee saw a pure LES event? I want to say it was March of 09--only General Mitchell and nearby--and I mean NEARBY areas saw quite a plume. Of course I'm certain I'm way off though. I just remember that because I flew my brother in from ATL to work on a few things with me---dropped him at the airport which I think was on a Monday... and they cancelled all flights. I'm sure someone else can correct me on this though... We get pure lake effect pretty much every winter, except last winter. Before the GHD Blizzard started there was pure lake effect snow falling in both Chicago and Milwaukee. The best lake effect snow event here, that I can remember, was the December 25, 2010 event. 1 foot of beautiful lake effect snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 We get pure lake effect pretty much every winter, except last winter. Before the GHD Blizzard started there was pure lake effect snow falling in both Chicago and Milwaukee. The best lake effect snow event here, that I can remember, was the December 25, 2010 event. 1 foot of beautiful lake effect snow! Forgot all about Christmas '10. That was amazing--I just was thinking pure LE snow--not coupled with another system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 who was talking about LES from port huron up to forestville you dink? I'll take chicago or mke anyday over detroit south. Dink ? Port Huron and Forestville are both in SeMi. The area is vast and encompasses a broad area. SeMi isn't just Detroit metro Bow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 The Christmas 2010 LE band was probably the best I've witnessed. Had something like 4" per hour snow rates. To bad it's so damn hard to get persistent NE fetch off the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Forgot all about Christmas '10. That was amazing--I just was thinking pure LE snow--not coupled with another system. Ah ok. Some met's say that snow was independent of the system. Others will tell you add it into the Blizzard total because the winds only came off the lake because of the approaching storm. FWIW. I noted some pure lake effect snow on the 23rd 8 days before that. Otherwise, I think it was the Christmas 2010 lake effect snow was the last accumulating LES. --- Getting some ice cold rain coming down now! No graupel though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Christmas Day 2010, with an explanation of the best LES set up for SE WI: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=61632&source=2 March 2, 2009, 14.4" at MKE: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=22559&source=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 The Christmas 2010 LE band was probably the best I've witnessed. Had something like 4" per hour snow rates. To bad it's so damn hard to get persistent NE fetch off the lake. I know! Doesn't stay sustained out of one direction very long. If that band would have not drifted south early on the 26th, there probably would have been 16-20" amounts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Christmas Day 2010, with an explanation of the best LES set up for SE WI: http://www.crh.noaa....=61632&source=2 March 2, 2009, 14.4" at MKE: http://www.crh.noaa....=22559&source=2 That March 2nd was an amazing event--sun with light flurries here in Kenosha--a mess at Mitchell. My poor brother had his flight cancelled, then the next day when his flight was to take off he was pushed back another day--I think I ended up driving him to ORD to catch a flight out. Expensive weekend for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 The GEFS have a far weaker intial trough like the foreigners. I could care less about truncated wishcasting. I think it depends on whether the -PNA sticks around or not. Probably be gone by the first week of November at the latest(along with weaker atlantic blocking). Angrysumons: Beware of the West based NAO blocking pattern, with very warm sea surface temps off the NEUS coast we could see a prolonged period of a -NAO west based block, sure at times it may weaken but at least through the end of Dec, I don't see that happening. Really the only thing that may be able to cool that down would be several deep troughs over that area. I suppose a couple of nor'easter's could do that as well, but that seems remote to me given that EL Ninio is struggling to get a foot hold. In other words, I don't think the southern jet will be strong enough to round the southern end of any troughs over the eastern US causing a nor'easter. Therefore I think most of the storms tracks will be between the Upper Mississippi Valley and say the Detroit area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Angrysumons: Beware of the West based NAO blocking pattern, with very warm sea surface temps off the NEUS coast we could see a prolonged period of a -NAO west based block, sure at times it may weaken but at least through the end of Dec, I don't see that happening. Really the only thing that may be able to cool that down would be several deep troughs over that area. I suppose a couple of nor'easter's could do that as well, but that seems remote to me given that EL Ninio is struggling to get a foot hold. In other words, I don't think the southern jet will be strong enough to round the southern end of any troughs over the eastern US causing a nor'easter. Therefore I think most of the storms tracks will be between the Upper Mississippi Valley and say the Detroit area. I'm pretty sure a west-based NAO favors Noreasters, and nothing but cold and dry likely for us, it's the east based -NAO we want I've heard. Not sure why you're implying a West based NAO to mean storms cutting b/w the Upper Mississippi Valley and Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Speaking of non-ordinary les snow events. I'm in Saginaw, MI and sure don't get much if any "Lake Michigan" LES. But, sometimes "if" we're lucky, early in the season before the Saginaw Bay freezes and we ger a NE wind. We sometimes see LES snow from Lake Huron down the Saginaw Bay to my area. I seen Midland, MI in the 70's get 12" from one event. Mostly though if we're really lucky we'll get 6". Now the Tip" of the Thumb sees quite often LES from N winds. Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Well, check the 00z GFS around 138 to 144 hrs out, I'm not gonna say anything more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Well, check the 00z GFS around 138 to 144 hrs out, I'm not gonna say anything more. Happy Octobombiversary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Happy Octobombiversary. With better low level moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 With better low level moisture. But about 20 mb weaker. Eh, I don't really trust anything in that range right now. Seems like this isn't the easiest pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 But about 20 mb weaker. Eh, I don't really trust anything in that range right now. Seems like this isn't the easiest pattern. Yeah, the modeling has been all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Well, check the 00z GFS around 138 to 144 hrs out, I'm not gonna say anything more. it will be interesting to see the ECMWF model come in. Last night it had a split flow at the H250 level, (jet stream), this morning it looked a little weaker, like some phasing was hinted at. Best guess is that the solution will be between last nights GFS and this Morning Euro. Of course if the ECMWF was showing some phasing with this morning run. it could show even more tonight, could this be a win for the GFS??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 it will be interesting to see the ECMWF model come in. Last night it had a split flow at the H250 level, (jet stream), this morning it looked a little weaker, like some phasing was hinted at. Best guess is that the solution will be between last nights GFS and this Morning Euro. Of course if the ECMWF was showing some phasing with this morning run. it could show even more tonight, could this be a win for the GFS??? Let's wait and see. Regardless, I don't think we can call this a win either, considering we are still ~6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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