Geos Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Or better yet...the negative NAO we had almost all Summer. It's a good thing, that we're getting closer to the time of year when a -NAO means colder air masses! NAEFS shows the a ridge over the NW Pacific in the 8-14 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Or better yet...the negative NAO we had almost all Summer. Negative NAO's during the summer don't really mean much. It is much more important during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Negative NAO's during the summer don't really mean much. It is much more important during the winter. In fact, I think we just discussed recently how a Negative NAO during the summer in La Nina years has a correlation toward warmer summers (though not necessarily the record breaking warmth we saw this summer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 I've seen snow here early as October 7th (2000)! I experienced that event in northwest IN. Came out of the movie theater and it was drizzling...then suddenly flipped to heavy wet snow with a ton of thunder/lightning. It was unreal to see that so early in the season. Probably one of the strangest weather events I've ever experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 I experienced that event in northwest IN. Came out of the movie theater and it was drizzling...then suddenly flipped to heavy wet snow with a ton of thunder/lightning. It was unreal to see that so early in the season. Probably one of the strangest weather events I've ever experienced. I didn't get thunder or lightning, but it did snow really good for about 10 minutes. For anyone interested in 80s in Chicago during October... WGN put out nice graphic about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 That was the earliest MEASURABLE snow for Detroit. 10/12/006 was definitely special for me. There was thunder and lighting reported in the squalls along with white-out conditions. Metro Airport and City Airport both measured 50 MPH wind gusts (I believe the temp was in the low 40s before the main squall came through). This was the same event in which Buffalo had that record-breaking lake effect snow event (with the feet of snow and non-stop thunder). But alas, that's all history. I would just about kill for a weather pattern and weather event that's even somewhat as nice as that one was right now. All of that said, I wouldn't doubt that Detroit has seen snow in September at some point in its history (before weather records were kept). The earliest trace of snowfall on record was October 3rd. We had about 2 inches at my parents house and it came down with fury. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Some morning amusement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 It's a good thing, that we're getting closer to the time of year when a -NAO means colder air masses! NAEFS shows the a ridge over the NW Pacific in the 8-14 day. It's been mentioned before, there's nothing else to talk about these days but the long range. Euro weeklies show strong EPO ridging into Alaska for a long while. Even warminista Brett Anderson has an unlikely looking map, for him... http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/updated-weekly-long-range-forecast-outlook/79496 So we will probably torch the last week of October, following the August/September pattern, seems to be a common theme the last 2 months. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weather-pattern-clues-through-the-end-of-october/80715 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 FWIW The Latest CFS weeklies have trended towards a much colder october for the central and eastern U.S Certainly much different than past runs. BTW Tropical before you start to bash this is the CFS V2 just so you know. http://www.cpc.ncep....0928.201210.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 FWIW The Latest CFS weeklies have trended towards a much colder october for the central and eastern U.S BTW Tropical before you start to bash this is the CFS V2 just so you know. http://www.cpc.ncep....0928.201210.gif Love that map! Those CFS weeklies change so dramatically every day. They have been slowly trending towards cold in the east half though for the past week or so. I still say we torch end of October/early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Love that map! Those CFS weeklies change so dramatically every day. They have been slowly trending towards cold in the east half though for the past week or so. I still say we torch end of October/early November. There are signs that we may very well warm towards the last week of October, however the CFS V2 weeklies show week 4 still being cold across our region. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Really liking the look of the day 7 Euro...very nice chunk of juicy cold air north of the border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 I like the looks of that Euro prog. For cold weather lovers (me included!), what we really want during October is for cold air to build up in Canada. If the US is chilly in October but Canada is torching, that doesn't do us any good. It's all about building cold and snowpack in the source regions. Of course there are some winters where the source regions are cold but it never visits the US (such as 2001-02)...but that possibility is always on the table anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 It's been mentioned before, there's nothing else to talk about these days but the long range. Euro weeklies show strong EPO ridging into Alaska for a long while. Even warminista Brett Anderson has an unlikely looking map, for him... http://www.accuweath...t-outlook/79496 So we will probably torch the last week of October, following the August/September pattern, seems to be a common theme the last 2 months. http://www.accuweath...f-october/80715 Wow, for him to show widespread cool for him must be a first! It seems to me that troughs will become more common in the eastern part of the nation. The cold shot during second week of October around this region will probably produce a killing freeze for many. Next week is probably the last chance this year for any 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 LOL! I just realized this would probably be snow on the north and backside. Don't know how I missed it this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 It's been mentioned before, there's nothing else to talk about these days but the long range. Euro weeklies show strong EPO ridging into Alaska for a long while. Even warminista Brett Anderson has an unlikely looking map, for him... http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/updated-weekly-long-range-forecast-outlook/79496 So we will probably torch the last week of October, following the August/September pattern, seems to be a common theme the last 2 months. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weather-pattern-clues-through-the-end-of-october/80715 Brett Anderson HATES using the blue coloring.... Why would he rather bust then to use blue, how could you look at the 15 day GFS and not think below normal is possible over the next 15 at all? Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Brett Anderson HATES using the blue coloring.... Why would he rather bust then to use blue, how could you look at the 15 day GFS and not think below normal is possible over the next 15 at all? Jon Edit: I see he had below normal in the 8-14 day.... That last week of october is pure wishcasting though. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Brett Anderson HATES using the blue coloring.... Why would he rather bust then to use blue, how could you look at the 15 day GFS and not think below normal is possible over the next 15 at all? Jon Those maps are his interpretation of the euro weeklies, so it wouldn't involve looking at the gfs at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 The Euro/GFS need to have their head slammed together. Set up is why the northwest trend happens in pacific patterns alot. You are stubbornly insistent they are wrong. What about the camp that points out that a recurving tropical system like the current typhoon out there translates to a northern tier trough about a week later? Just ignore them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 You are stubbornly insistent they are wrong. What about the camp that points out that a recurving tropical system like the current typhoon out there translates to a northern tier trough about a week later? Just ignore them? Very strong correlation when that happens. One thing JB is usually right about. Cold shots will be coming, they always do in October! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Upped the ante big time. THought they might... http://www.cpc.ncep....610temp.new.gif Also upped the ante for the 8-14. Nice confidence. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 240 Euro, and yes, I WILL post it. Both it and the GFS haven't budged in several runs. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012092812!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 240 Euro, and yes, I WILL post it. Both it and the GFS haven't budged in several runs. http://www.ecmwf.int...s!2012092812!!/ Stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 240 Euro, and yes, I WILL post it. Both it and the GFS haven't budged in several runs.http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012092812!!/ This guys a bigger weenie than me. Sent from my iPhone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Upped the ante big time. THought they might... http://www.cpc.ncep....610temp.new.gif Also upped the ante for the 8-14. Nice confidence. http://www.cpc.ncep....814temp.new.gif 240 Euro, and yes, I WILL post it. Both it and the GFS haven't budged in several runs. http://www.ecmwf.int...s!2012092812!!/ Nothing else to talk about to speak of. Might as well post a few links to show what might shake down late next week! LOT discussion on next weeks warmth and cool down, with the potential for a system to move through the area. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION DEVELOPING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. PREVIOUSLY THERE HAD BEEN INDICATIONS BY THE GFS THAT THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM WOULD REMAIN CLOSED AND CUT-OFF AND SEPARATED FROM THE NRN STREAM WHILE THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF WANTED TO PHASE THE TWO STREAMS. THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW SHOWING PHASING OF THE NRN AND SRN STREAM SYSTEMS INTO A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH...AND STEADILY PROGRESSING IT EASTWARD TUESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...THE GFS BEGINS TO DEVIATE FROM THIS SOLUTION AND THEN CLOSES OFF THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS THE TROUGH STEADILY NEWD. AT THIS POINT...THE ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE...SO HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST FOR THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE NEXT EFFECT OF THIS WOULD BE TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO...THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE WARMING TREND FOR NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN 850MB TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD REACH 15-16F... WHICH UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE AND BREEZY SWLY WINDS...DEEP LAYER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 80 DEGREES. THE WARM WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT END BY THURSDAY AS A BROAD...DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...BRING COOLER AIR UNDER A RETURN TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS SETTING UP FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. KREIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 This guys a bigger weenie than me. Sent from my iPhone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 DTX making a honorable mention to the 2006 measurable snow. I thought it was neat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 Stop. Come on...this is a winter wx board at heart...and we haven't had any winter wx in the Midwest for ~18 months. What's the big deal about getting excited over some upcoming cold in the long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 Come on...this is a winter wx board at heart...and we haven't had any winter wx in the Midwest for ~18 months. What's the big deal about getting excited over some upcoming cold in the long range? I agree. Go away Andy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 Come on...this is a winter wx board at heart...and we haven't had any winter wx in the Midwest for ~18 months. What's the big deal about getting excited over some upcoming cold in the long range? That wasn't exactly my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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