Geos Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 A breezy, wet afternoon in the mid 40s! My birch trees are just about bare, along with my Honey Locust tree. Just waiting on my silver, Japanese, and sugar maples to drop there leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 44 with a steady light to moderate rain. Feels like the east side of a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Geos- More like this..i'm the red dot Soil is still bone dry if you dig down a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Steady light rain most of the afternoon, only 0.01" at the airport though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 DLL - I guess this month has been normal rainfall to slightly above around there, but doesn't compare to the last 90 days. Water table is recovering here. Rivers have been steadily increasing, especially since last weekends rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 It's been pouring virga here for the past couple of hours. It may actually reach the ground before the night is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 DTX hinting at well above normal temps next week and into much of the long range. Penciled in for upper 60s ATM. That appears a tad conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 DTX hinting at well above normal temps next week and into much of the long range. Penciled in for upper 60s ATM. That appears a tad conservative. My point shows 65 on Sunday and the low to mid 70's all week. IWX mentions 80's in their discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I think 70s look pretty probable for next week for much of the region, 80s might be tough up this way but IL/IN would have chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 DTX hinting at well above normal temps next week and into much of the long range. Penciled in for upper 60s ATM. That appears a tad conservative. Good. Behind on projects. I need a stretch of good weather before the bottom falls out around Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 The warm weather next week will actually do us good. It helps to keep the lake waters warm for LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 With a mild stretch ahead, I can clean up the yard. Mist/R- and breezy conditions continue on. About 44°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 With a mild stretch ahead, I can clean up the yard. Mist/R- and breezy conditions continue on. About 44°. Thats all i need... Give me a good 3 days to get the yard cleaned up, winterized, etc; and then bury it with snow. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I also need some good weather to finish a few things, like cleaning my mess of a garage, raking, digging up some trees, finishing my shed, building a simple greenhouse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Next week NWS has rain chances almost every day...but keeps it warm with temps in the upper 60fs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 0.26" of ice water today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 The warm weather next week will actually do us good. It helps to keep the lake waters warm for LES. You live in Detroit. I would doubt you could care less about warm lake waters, like me. In fact, cooler would be better, b/c what little gain there might be with lake effect with warmer waters would be wiped out with the rain/mix crap near the lake with marginal storms early in the winter season. Also, when has the "warmer lake water" theory ever resulted in epic lake effect snows in recent years. There have been some good years, and some poor ones, but it is more about the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 00z GFS is pretty interesting, sub 985mb low in MN next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 You live in Detroit. I would doubt you could care less about warm lake waters, like me. In fact, cooler would be better, b/c what little gain there might be with lake effect with warmer waters would be wiped out with the rain/mix crap near the lake with marginal storms early in the winter season. Also, when has the "warmer lake water" theory ever resulted in epic lake effect snows in recent years. There have been some good years, and some poor ones, but it is more about the setup. Detroit does relatively well when one of those I-94/I-96 convergence bands set up. We easily pick up a quick 1-3" with impressive snowfall rates. Of course one of the main ingredients for that (besides moisture/convergence) is strong instability, which is why I want to keep those lake waters as warm as possible. As far as winter storms and early season snowstorms, Detroit doesn't see any big snowstorms early in the season often anyway (and Lake St. Clair so small that its effects only make it so far inland, unlike Lake Michigan), so when it comes to synoptic events I couldn't care less about the lake temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 00z GFS is pretty interesting, sub 985mb low in MN next week. Shows over a foot of snow for North Dakota, and another huge wind machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Shows over a foot of snow for North Dakota, and another huge wind machine. Yeah 80+ kts at H85 with some kind of freakish pressure gradient on the back side of the LL cyclone. The warm sector looks pretty stout for October as well, the 10ºC dewpoint line at H85 is all the way up to the International Falls area and 60s sfc dews into Central MN and WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Yeah 80+ kts at H85 with some kind of freakish pressure gradient on the back side of the LL cyclone. The warm sector looks pretty stout for October as well, the 10ºC dewpoint line at H85 is all the way up to the International Falls area and 60s sfc dews into Central MN and WI. The GFS is a magnificent meteorological display. The Bismarck sounding at 168 hours has nearly 85 kts at 850 mb lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 The GFS is a magnificent meteorological display. The Bismarck sounding at 168 hours has nearly 85 kts at 850 mb lol. max of nearly 87kts in ND. The amount of rapid intensification between 156-168 is amazing. Even in model land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Not only that, but it shows the trough sticking around for the entire long range, nearly a week. Who knows what will happen though, the Euro keeps delaying the cold it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Not only that, but it shows the trough sticking around for the entire long range, nearly a week. Who knows what will happen though, the Euro keeps delaying the cold it would seem. I think the EURO is a bit out of touch beyond D7. The -NAO will send another trough in sooner then the last run is showing. The last 5 days of the month look to be below normal. - according to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 You live in Detroit. I would doubt you could care less about warm lake waters, like me. In fact, cooler would be better, b/c what little gain there might be with lake effect with warmer waters would be wiped out with the rain/mix crap near the lake with marginal storms early in the winter season. Also, when has the "warmer lake water" theory ever resulted in epic lake effect snows in recent years. There have been some good years, and some poor ones, but it is more about the setup. You must not be informed on this particular region of MI or the I94 corridor. SeMi does get LES. Intensity isn't like the UP. But to get frequent 1-3 inch events is almost run of the mill. Esspecially when we get a Huron connection. As powerball stated the must fun comes with significant bouts of instability and higher Delta Ts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 above avg lake temps in fall doesn't stress me much anymore. in even a halfassed normal fall or early winter the lake will be down in to the 30's come Christmas time anyways. its all about hoping for a track through illanoy/indiana to southern MI and minimizing the duration of gross se/east winds. LE and the rare LES we get on the west side of LM is better anyways than se michigan's penny fluff that is only good for stat padding. Now put me just NE on the other side of the lake and I could probably stand living in southern mi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 On October 14th, the latest ground water level at Fort McCoy Military Reservation (Monroe County, WI) was 9.20 feet below the ground. This was 0.02 feet deeper than last week and 4.18 feet deeper than the normal of 5.02 feet. During this summer, the ground water level has become 2.25 feet deeper than what it was on June 1st (6.95 feet). The deepest level ever recorded for this site was 9.25 feet on October 12, 2012. The shallowest level recorded was 0.48 feet on September 29, 1965. Data for this site began on November 16, 1949. Data for this site began on November 16, 1949. The image below is courtesy of the USGS and it shows how the ground water level has declined since June 1, 2012. Ft McCoy is right outside of Sparta, WI (about 20 miles east of here)... I'm on a private well so this scares me a little. Luckily (?) I'm a few blocks from the Mississippi River, so my guess is that helps keeps them from dropping too far...until the river dries up! Another thing I've noticed, being on a private well (being only 65ft deep or so), the water temperature can vary a lot through out year...this summer it seemed to stay a lot colder then normal...which makes sense because dry soil is more insulating then wet soil, and with no rain, no warm water recharge?? makes sense...? Bow- So temps are back to normal? Tropical had me thinking they'd be 60Fs all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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