daddylonglegs Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Anyone see the 6z GFS? Hello winter! Going to be a very cold Halloween (snow?). Looks like after the 27th the bottom falls out. Geos- Must be a lot of acorns .. I know my nephew filled up a whole bag of Burr oak acorns when they were camping a week or so ago (must be no squirrels at the campground)...The acorns were very good sized for how dry its been (although to be fair, the campground sits right on the Mississippi River and goes underwater whenever the river goes above flood stage so those trees probably have access to very shallow groundwater. Around my house, the black walnuts were all over the place and I noticed a lot of squirrels burying them in my gardens/flower beds. Back in the 30's, those drought years had some awfully cold winters, although I don't know what the sea ice looked like back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Anyone see the 6z GFS? Hello winter! Going to be a very cold Halloween (snow?). Looks like after the 27th the bottom falls out. Geos- Must be a lot of acorns .. I know my nephew filled up a whole bag of Burr oak acorns when they were camping a week or so ago (must be no squirrels at the campground)...The acorns were very good sized for how dry its been (although to be fair, the campground sits right on the Mississippi River and goes underwater whenever the river goes above flood stage so those trees probably have access to very shallow groundwater. Around my house, the black walnuts were all over the place and I noticed a lot of squirrels burying them in my gardens/flower beds. Back in the 30's, those drought years had some awfully cold winters, although I don't know what the sea ice looked like back then. Unfortunately, 36-48 hours ago, the models were showing the cool down a half week earlier, so I won't fully buy into it until there is agreement within, say, 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 starting to breech 70 across SEMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 DLL- I was going to mention there is a bumper crop of black walnuts this year in the neighborhood! The food supply must be good. Surprised at that since the drought has been going since May. Local forecasters were saying sun up until 2pm or so. Saw about 5 minutes of sun in the last hour! 70° seems like a long shot now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 DTW currently sitting @ 71. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Fun following the look of the end of the euro.. With a lot of luck we'll also be ice fishing during this gun hunting season.. Starting to get a little better feeling in the tummy about this winter... My fear for lack of precip this winter is waning and hopefully is a innie in another month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Have noticed here that all the trees across the area are loaded with cones, nuts and berrys... As of late the grass has stoped growing and the trees are past peak in colour. Fall is nearing its end, winter will be more dominating after the 29th with the next full moon. Bowmehunter, glad you are getting a better grip on the upcomming winter pattern. With any luck the local precip deficit will be erased with lots of white gold!! I think the majority of us are in the normal or better than normal winter this season !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Fun following the look of the end of the euro.. With a lot of luck we'll also be ice fishing during this gun hunting season.. Starting to get a little better feeling in the tummy about this winter... My fear for lack of precip this winter is waning and hopefully is a innie in another month. Yeah that whole Euro run was interesting especially after day 5. Quite the powerhouse trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Nice to hear the euro looks interesting in the medium to long range. I agree a little Indian summer at this time of year isn't bad. Just wish the city had its first freeze beforehand so I could actually enjoy it. The next trough hopefully brings the subfreezing weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Nice to hear the euro looks interesting in the medium to long range. I agree a little Indian summer at this time of year isn't bad. Just wish the city had its first freeze beforehand so I could actually enjoy it. The next trough hopefully brings the subfreezing weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Also of note on the euro is a modest warm spell starting early mid next week. Looks like some mid upper 60s to aid in the fall clean up. TBD is the strength of the trough projected to sweep in late next week. The good news...In 3-5 weeks we could be talking LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 upper 60's and hopefully warmer is for playtime...not fall cleanup time.. Save that for hoody and beanie weather to follow. MKE has lower 70's monday.. Should have some real nice above avg nights to keep the windows open for great sleeping weather.. Then looks like storm windows could be coming down early this yr. nov-feb bookend cold to set in like we've never seen before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 upper 60's and hopefully warmer is for playtime...not fall cleanup time.. Save that for hoody and beanie weather to follow. MKE has lower 70's monday.. Should have some real nice above avg nights to keep the windows open for great sleeping weather.. Then looks like storm windows could be coming down early this yr. nov-feb bookend cold to set in like we've never seen before I don't remember the last year we've had bookend cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Does a cow and a flat rock mean anything to you? It's raining pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 I don't remember the last year we've had bookend cold. Going off Indiana statewide averages... 2002-03, though December was slightly above normal. 1995-96, but February was slightly above normal. 1976-77 would do the trick though. Nov-Jan especially cold. Of course how many of the members in this forum were alive for that winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 I was. I graduated from high school in '76. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 I was. I graduated from high school in '76. I turned two in April 1977. My parents, like most, were photo happy when I was a kid. Tons of photos of me out in the elements in the great late 70's/early 80's winters. Next time I go to visit the p's, I'm going to see if I can scan a few of those pics and post 'em here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Been raining pretty good here since 5pm. Down to 60°. Backyard pond should fill up the rest of the way tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 0.19" so far today and another round of rain will start within the next hour. 984 mb surface low has stalled in northern Minnesota, slug of cold air wrapping around to the south of the low leading to strong low level cold air advection from the Canadian border to the WI/IA border. 0 °C 850 temps should be approaching Wisconsin from the west by sunrise. I'm surprised more people aren't talking about the wintry precip potential, a large wrap around band of precip is projected to coincide with sub-freezing 850 temps. A large area including parts of MN, WI, IA, IL is in play for the first flakes of the year tomorrow in my opinion, though the boundary layer may be too warm. If we get organized and moderately heavy precip that should override boundary layer problems though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 I'm expecting nothing more than a little graupel here, Many will be excited to see the white stuff flying in areas you mentioned. Picked up .33" here, with more expected overnight. Could see close to an inch. After tonight's rain combined with recent rains, the drought will soon be a distant memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Getting pretty blustery here as that slug of rain moves in. Just gusted to 30 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Nice to hear a good steady, moderate/heavy rain going on outside. Been quite awhile since I have heard this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 If there was any snowflakes to survive the fall to the ground it would likely be around this time frame for S WI or N IL. Pocket of sub 2.5°C air at the 925mb level. Definitely expecting to see some graupel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Turtle, I think it is because precipitation rates look meager and the temp doesn't look to get below 40 at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 I'm expecting nothing more than a little graupel here, Many will be excited to see the white stuff flying in areas you mentioned. Picked up .33" here, with more expected overnight. Could see close to an inch. After tonight's rain combined with recent rains, the drought will soon be a distant memory. The MKX discussion actually mentions graupel, since instability from steep lapse rates should be favorable for some thunderstorms to develop. If we actually get thunderstorms tomorrow I think we could easily have thundersnow, thunderstorms are efficient at creating cold pools in the boundary layer. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN PRECIP DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THU AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PARKS OVER CENTRAL WI AND VORT MAXES ROTATE AROUND IT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD CLOUDS MAY LEAD TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE GRAUPEL AND A CLAP OF THUNDER IN A FEW SHOWERS. LEFT THE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT KNOW THAT IT IS A POSSIBILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The G Man Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Getting pretty blustery here as that slug of rain moves in. Just gusted to 30 mph. It gusted here to 35mph, It surprised me as my local forecast only says gusts to 20 and it wasn't that windy till a few moments ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 I'm surprised more people aren't talking about the wintry precip potential, a large wrap around band of precip is projected to coincide with sub-freezing 850 temps. A large area including parts of MN, WI, IA, IL is in play for the first flakes of the year tomorrow in my opinion, though the boundary layer may be too warm. If we get organized and moderately heavy precip that should override boundary layer problems though. Because realistically the chances of it happening are quite low. Outside of a very isolated occurance here or there, it's not going to happen. Temps are quite marginal at 850mb, and below that on down to the surface it will be too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 18, 2012 Author Share Posted October 18, 2012 Today was decent, high of 73*F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Because realistically the chances of it happening are quite low. Outside of a very isolated occurance here or there, it's not going to happen. Temps are quite marginal at 850mb, and below that on down to the surface it will be too warm. Agree. I'd consider it a "victory" if we get like 2 reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 The MKX discussion actually mentions graupel, since instability from steep lapse rates should be favorable for some thunderstorms to develop. If we actually get thunderstorms tomorrow I think we could easily have thundersnow, thunderstorms are efficient at creating cold pools in the boundary layer. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN PRECIP DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THU AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PARKS OVER CENTRAL WI AND VORT MAXES ROTATE AROUND IT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD CLOUDS MAY LEAD TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE GRAUPEL AND A CLAP OF THUNDER IN A FEW SHOWERS. LEFT THE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT KNOW THAT IT IS A POSSIBILITY. :weenie: Even if you just mean thundergraupel, that is quite a weenieish statement imo. The chances that temps are just right and the precip rates enough are quite low, as Chistorm has also stated. Even so, if it happened, it would be difficult to term it "thundersnow" if it was just sleet or graupel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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